DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/05/09

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 002553 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/05/09 INDEX: (1) U.S. cannot afford to let Futenma relocation plan go off the rails; regrets its initial flexible stance that "gave too much hope" to Japan (Tokyo Shimbun) (2) Okinawa poll: 57 PERCENT want local referendum on Futenma relocation (Mainichi) (3) Agitated public opinion on Futenma relocation (Part 2): Nago mayoral election to reveal citizens' "true sentiments"? (Mainichi) (4) Interview with Daniel Okimoto, emeritus professor at Stanfold University: Japan, U.S. should promote public-private cooperation in environmental technology area (Nikkei) (5) Poll on Hatoyama cabinet, political parties (Tokyo Shimbun) ARTICLES: (1) U.S. cannot afford to let Futenma relocation plan go off the rails; regrets its initial flexible stance that "gave too much hope" to Japan TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) November 5, 2009 Nakahiro Iwata, Washington Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada was hoping to hold a Japan-U.S. foreign ministerial to search for a breakthrough in the deadlocked issue of relocating the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station (in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture) ahead of President Barack Obama's visit to Japan on Nov. 12. If the current situation persisted, there would be almost no chance for the Futenma issue to move forward. This article examines the circumstances of the United States, which is determined to implement the existing plan to build a replacement facility on the coastal area of Camp Schwab (in Nago),adhering to the intergovernmental agreement. U.S. "welcomes" Japan's aid The White House National Security Council (NSC) held a high-level inter-agency meeting on Oct. 29-30 to conduct in-depth discussions on policy toward Japan. According to a diplomatic source, it was agreed upon at the meeting to give the go ahead to Okada's plan to visit to the U.S., and the decision was conveyed directly to the Japanese government. However, this expression of "welcome" was based on expectations for Japan's aid programs for Afghanistan, according to the diplomatic source. The White House, the State Department, and the Defense Department were in agreement on the relocation of Futenma, a priority issue. On Oct. 20 Secretary of Defense Robert Gates pressed Okada for the swift implementation of the existing plan, offering no room for compromise. Okada proposed the idea of integrating Futenma Air Station with Kadena Air Base. Gates seems to have indicated that there is no leeway for studying the idea, pointing out difficulty operating Kadena's aircraft and the Martine Corps' helicopters from Futenma side by side. TOKYO 00002553 002 OF 009 A strategic mistake by U.S. The U.S. government thinks that it might have given the Hatoyama administration too much hope. Washington's strong backlash comes from such a "strategic mistake," according to a source familiar with Japan-U.S. relations. Immediately after the Hatoyama administration was launched, Assistant Secretary of State (for East Asian and Pacific Affairs) Kurt Campbell showed his understanding, saying, "It will take several months for the new Japanese administration to become fully functional. We have to be patient." Clinton, too, indicated that any administration has the right to change policies. During a Japan-U.S. foreign ministerial held in New York in late-September, Clinton demonstrated a flexible stance and a willingness to respond to a call for talks, while indicating that the existing agreement is the basic premise. During his stay in Japan, Gates took a stern attitude, saying, "Without the Futenma relocation, there will be no relocation to Guam or return of land in Okinawa." The statement was partly intended to correct the initial misleading stance. Shadow of Afghanistan The Japan-U.S. agreement reached in May 2006 stipulates, "The individual realignment initiatives form a coherent package." The realignment of U.S. forces in Japan is part of the ongoing post-cold war global transformation of U.S. forces. The United States fears that if the Futenma relocation is stalled, the entire plan will be wrecked, like a line of dominoes falling down. The war in Afghanistan, which claimed the lives of 56 U.S. service members in October, the highest number on record, is casting a shadow over the Futenma issue. "Finding himself under pressure to make a critical decision on sending additional troops to Afghanistan, President Obama cannot afford to think about issuing an order on the Futenma relocation that would hamper the capability of the U.S. military," former NSC Senior Asian Director Michael Green said. U.S. force realignment and the plan to send additional troops are directly linked to military spending. For this reason, the President cannot afford to antagonize Congress. The Department of Defense appropriations bill for fiscal year 2010 (October 2009 - September 2010) includes some 378 million dollars (approximately 34 billion yen) for relocating 8,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam, among other plans. If the Futenma relocation does not move forward and Congress does not approve the budget bill, the relocation plan will be called off. The U.S. government's policy course is not to be overly concerned about settling the matter before the President visits Japan and to avoid delving deeper into the topic during the upcoming summit talks. Nevertheless, the clock is ticking for the Democratic Party of Japan administration. (2) Okinawa poll: 57 PERCENT want local referendum on Futenma relocation TOKYO 00002553 003 OF 009 MAINICHI (Page 2) (Abridged) November 3, 2009 In a recent public opinion survey jointly conducted in Okinawa Prefecture by the Mainichi Shimbun and the Ryukyu Shimpo, 70 PERCENT of respondents called for the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, to be moved out of Okinawa Prefecture or out of Japan. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama takes this survey result seriously. "This is what shows the voice of Okinawa Prefecture's people," Hatoyama said. On the other hand, he also touched on the fact that Japan and the United States reached an intergovernmental agreement on the Futenma relocation when the now-opposition Liberal Democratic Party was in office as the governing party. "The agreement between Japan and the United States is also of crucial importance," Hatoyama said. As seen from this remark, Hatoyama is apparently wavering in his thinking on the matter. He has shown a stance of attaching importance to public opinion in Okinawa Prefecture. The question is how he will pave the way to resolve the Futenma issue. His government, however, has yet to determine its course of action for the issue. "As a matter of fact, many of the people in Okinawa Prefecture want the government to negotiate (with the U.S.) to move Futenma airfield out of Okinawa Prefecture or out of Japan," Hatoyama told reporters yesterday evening at his office. Meanwhile, he also referred to the current plan to relocate Futenma airfield to a coastal area of Camp Schwab in the Henoko area of the island prefecture's northern coastal city of Nago. "I can see local people feeling that the Futenma relocation to Henoko might be acceptable if the construction site is moved several tens of meters," Hatoyama added, with regard to Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima's call for the relocation site's offshore move. "I will give an answer from among the various options," he reiterated. On Oct. 16, Hatoyama told reporters that he will attach importance to popular opinion in Okinawa Prefecture. "We will need to reach a conclusion sometime between Nago City's mayoral election (in January next year) and Okinawa Prefecture's gubernatorial election (in November next year)," he said. In the survey, respondents were also asked what they thought would be the best way to explore popular opinion in Okinawa Prefecture. To this question, however, 57 PERCENT of the respondents pointed out the need for Okinawa Prefecture to hold a "local referendum" on the Futenma issue. Among other answers, Okinawa Prefecture's gubernatorial election ranked second at 13 PERCENT , with the election for the House of Councillors (in July next year) at 7 PERCENT and Nago City's mayoral election at 6 PERCENT . Hatoyama has shown his stance of factoring in the outcome of Nago's mayoral election. However, most respondents nixed his wait-and-see attitude. Commentary: Poll results show high expectations for premier The survey results show the high expectations of Okinawa Prefecture's people for Prime Minister Hatoyama, who advocated relocating Futenma airfield outside Okinawa Prefecture or Japan in his campaign for this summer's election for the House of Representatives. The survey results cannot be simply compared with those in the past, but in light of past data the local population strongly tends to call for Futenma airfield to be moved out of Okinawa Prefecture. Prime Minister Hatoyama should take the local people's expectations seriously. TOKYO 00002553 004 OF 009 In 1996, the Japanese and U.S. governments agreed to relocate Futenma airfield away from its current location. In 1998, former Okinawa Gov. Keiichi Inamine, who accepted Futenma relocation within Okinawa Prefecture, won the gubernatorial election. As a result, the move for Futenma relocation accelerated. At the time, the government decided to install a sea-based alternative facility within the offing of Nago City's Henoko area to take over the heliport functions of Futenma airfield. In a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted in November 1999, respondents were asked if they would accept Futenma relocation within Okinawa Prefecture. In response to this question, local public opinion was split, with 45.7 PERCENT answering "yes" and 44.1 PERCENT saying "no." However, Futenma relocation made no headway. In 2005, the Japanese and U.S. governments put out an interim report on the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan. In the report, the relocation site for Futenma airfield's alternative facility was changed to a coastal area of Camp Schwab, which is closer to local communities than the initially planned Henoko offshore site. This modified relocation plan was the biggest point at issue in the November 2006 gubernatorial election. In a public opinion survey conducted in Okinawa Prefecture at that time, the proportion of those who want the Futenma base to be moved out of Okinawa Prefecture or abroad reached 60 PERCENT . Eventually, Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima, who accepted Futenma relocation to another place within Okinawa Prefecture, won the gubernatorial race. This outcome, however, reflected the actual circumstances of Okinawa, where the wishes of local people for base realignments or reductions and for state-budgeted economic development measures were complicatedly entangled, but the then government would not change its firm stance of relocating the Futenma base to Henoko. This time around, a political party that is calling for Futenma airfield to be moved out of Okinawa Prefecture has become the governing party for the first time. Okinawa is now free from the fetters of Futenma relocation within the prefecture. The latest survey was conducted under these circumstances. It may safely be said that the results show the local population's feelings. (3) Agitated public opinion on Futenma relocation (Part 2): Nago mayoral election to reveal citizens' "true sentiments"? MAINICHI (Page 24) (Full) November 5, 2009 Teruhisa Mimori, Yoshichika Imoto Nago Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, 63, replied angrily to reporters trying to ask him questions in front of the Umusa community hall in Nago City, Okinawa on the evening of Oct. 31: "The question is what the national government wants to do. The government is taking the wrong approach by seeking our opinion." Shimabukuro was invited as a guest to a gathering to honor senior citizens. Just 30 minutes before, in front of the community hall's entrance, former Nago education board chairman Susumu Inamine, 64, was shaking hands with people arriving for the gathering. Both Shimabukuro and Inamine have announced their candidacy in the Nago mayoral election that will take place on January 24, 2010. Shimabukuro, who accepts the relocation of the U.S. forces' Futenma Air Station (in Ginowan City) to Henoko in Nago City and is supported by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and New Komeito, almost bumped into Inamine, TOKYO 00002553 005 OF 009 who advocates the relocation of the Futenma base out of Okinawa and whom the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has decided to support. The election campaign has effectively been launched. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama keeps saying he will "make a final decision based on the Okinawan people's sentiments" and has cited the Nago election as a barometer of popular will. Shimabukuro's remark that the government is "taking the wrong approach" reflected his frustration with the Hatoyama administration's indecision on the relocation issue. If a decision is deferred to after the mayoral election, this will be the fourth mayoral race to gauge the popular will on the relocation issue. The Tokyo government pressured Nago with a package of economic development measures tied to Futenma relocation. Economic measures for northern Okinawa were linked to the plan for Futenma's relocation to waters off Henoko while special U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) realignment subsidies were linked to the plan to relocate to the coastal area (of Henoko),which is closer to residential districts. Nago has a population of 60,000. It is a key city in the northern part of the main island of Okinawa, but its development has lagged behind southern and central Okinawa. Ten percent or approximately 2.7 billion yen (in FY07) of the city's revenues is related to U.S. bases, so coexistence with the bases is the city's basic stance. That is also the reason why the city has accepted the coastal area relocation plan, whose conditions are less favorable than the offshore plan. On the other hand, the repeated carrot-and-stick tactics have sharply divided public opinion, and the local people have mixed feelings. The political map of the mayoral race, in which Yasushi Higa, 65, a part-time university instructor endorsed by the Japanese Communist Party will run in addition to Shimabukuro and Inamine, is also complicated. Inamine is a conservative who served as treasurer and education board chairman under the late Mayor Tateo Kishimoto, who accepted Futenma relocation. He is backed by conservative municipal assembly members who are dissatisfied with Shimabukuro's administration of the city. When he announced his candidacy in late September, his position on Futenma relocation was ambiguous: "Relocation out of Okinawa is the best option, but I will seek a review of the current plan." In mid-October, Inamine began to talk about "demanding relocation out of the prefecture." This was at a time the DPJ and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) decided not to field a common candidate of the ruling parties and began to approach Inamine to offer their support. On Oct. 31, the DPJ Okinawa chapter decided to endorse Inamine, while the SDP is also contemplating doing the same. The three-way split of the candidates - one supported by the LDP and New Komeito, one supported by both conservatives and reformists, and one supported by reformists - is similar to the last election in 2006. However, the decisive difference is that this election is taking place after the change of administration in Tokyo. Reformist Okinawa Prefectural Assembly member Yoshikazu Tamaki (elected from Nago), who supports Inamine, says: "Past mayoral elections were held under an administration that was forcing the Henoko relocation plan on Nago. This time, such pressure is gone." He reckons that Hatoyama's own words have opened Pandora's Box, so the citizens will now express their true sentiments. A housewife, 60, who came to the TOKYO 00002553 006 OF 009 Umusa community hall for the gathering to honor the elderly, said she cannot make up her mind. "My relatives are in the construction business, so I have voted for the candidate favoring the relocation plan in consideration of the city's economic development. But deep in my heart, I don't like the military bases. However, is relocation out of Okinawa or out of Japan really possible? For now I am still thinking it over." What is the best way to gauge popular opinion in Okinawa on Futenma relocation? In a recent joint public opinion poll conducted by Mainichi Shimbun and Ryukyu Shimpo in Okinawa, 57 percent of respondents answered "a referendum," 13 percent cited the gubernatorial election, while only 6 percent said the Nago mayoral election. Popular opinion on the relocation issue should not be gauged through elections of local leaders. That seems to be the popular opinion in Okinawa. (End of two-part series) (4) Interview with Daniel Okimoto, emeritus professor at Stanfold University: Japan, U.S. should promote public-private cooperation in environmental technology area NIKKEI (Page 8) (Full) November 5, 2009 Ahead of the planned visit to Japan by U.S. President Obama, what kind of vision is the U.S. going to formulate for its relations with Japan? The Nikkei interviewed U.S. Stanford University Emeritus Professor Daniel Okimoto. He has given policy advice on Japan to Ambassador John Roos, who assumed the post as a close friend of the President. -- What do you expect of the Japan-U.S. relationship? Okimoto: The U.S. and Japan are the world's largest and second largest economic powers, so their economic cooperation is expected to generate great opportunities. But their cooperation is now limited to such areas as trade, intellectual property rights, capital transfer, and foreign exchange transactions. The two countries should also cooperate in eco-technology, for example, in generating renewable energy, building next-generation power-transmission cables, computerizing the means of transport, and saving energy in office buildings. The administration of President Barack Obama sees these areas as new opportunities for economic growth. -- Do you think it is possible for Japan and the U.S. to share roles in the environment field? Okimoto: Japan and the U.S. can take the initiative in various technical areas. Japan is strong in battery-related fields, so its technologies can be used in manufacturing electric cars, trains, and other means of transport. The U.S. is good at next-generation power-transmission cables and renewable energy. If the two countries' private firms work together, a wide range of possibilities will be created. -- Does Ambassador Roos take a similar view about Japan-U.S. cooperation in the environmental technology area? Okimoto: The Ambassador takes a very positive view. He has extensive TOKYO 00002553 007 OF 009 ties to people in this area. Ultimately, the private sector should take the initiative, but the two governments can make arrangements or establish a wise men's forum for companies to meet and discuss, or can set up a task force to draft policies, discuss problems related to regulations, and work out technological standards. -- Will atomic power generation and the transfer of Bullet Train-related technologies also be areas of cooperation between Japan and the U.S.? Okimoto: Of course, atomic power generation is categorized as clean technology. There is no reason for the Obama administration to refrain from promoting cooperation in this area. Bullet train-related technologies naturally will be included in the list of areas for bilateral cooperation. In areas besides the environment, the list will include biotechnology and programs to conquer cancers and to contain new strains of infectious diseases. -- Looking at the present Japan-U.S. relationship, a rosy future seems unlikely for the bilateral relationship. Okimoto: In the 1960s, the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty was revised. In the 1980s, the Japan-U.S. relationship was in a period of "Japan-bashing." In the 1990s, the bubble economy collapsed, and the Japanese economy was beset by deflation. In the context of Japan-U.S. relations, these events were important turning points, and the relationship is also at a critical crossroads at present. The global economy is teetering on the brink of collapse. The instability of the political situation tends to bring about political change. The change of government in Japan can be cited as one example of this trend. Even so, I do not think that the measures taken by the government led by the Democratic Party of Japan with the aim of soliciting public support, such as child allowance and free high school education, will contribute to resolving problems. -- How do you view the Hatoyama administration's stance toward the U.S.? Okimoto: The key is whether it will become possible for Japan and the U.S. to maintain a "new balance" in the next two years, but seeing the present situation, I have to take a pessimistic view. I am worried about the present situation in which the focus of attention is only on such issues as Japan's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station, and secret nuclear accords. Japan and the U.S. should try to build a relationship of trust as soon as possible. The Obama administration has been saddled with other problems, for instance, those related to Iraq and Afghanistan. If the Japan-U.S. alliance turns into a "troublesome issue," the President will come under fire at home, and eventually his discretionary power over issues related to Japan will, in my opinion, become circumscribed. (5) Poll on Hatoyama cabinet, political parties TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged) November 2, 2009 Questions & Answers (Figures are percentages. Parentheses denote the results of the last survey conducted Sept. 16-17.) TOKYO 00002553 008 OF 009 Q: Do you support the Hatoyama cabinet? Yes 61.8 (72.0) No 22.9 (13.1) Don't know (D/K) + no answer (N/A) 15.3 (14.9) Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the previous question) What's the primary reason for your approval of the Hatoyama cabinet? Pick only one from among those listed below. The prime minister is trustworthy 11.5 (12.1) Because it's a coalition cabinet of the Democratic Party of Japan, Social Democratic Party, and People's New Party 6.7 (7.4) The prime minister has leadership ability 4.3 (3.1) Something can be expected of its economic policies 15.1 (16.4) Something can be expected of its foreign policy 1.5 (3.1) Something can be expected of its political reforms 29.6 (29.2) Something can be expected of its tax reforms 3.6 (3.4) Something can be expected of its administrative reforms 11.6 (10.2) There's no other appropriate person (for prime minister) 14.4 (11.7) Other answers (O/A) 0.7 (0.8) D/K+N/A 1.0 (2.6) Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the first question) What's the primary reason for your disapproval of the Hatoyama cabinet? Pick only one from among those listed below. The prime minister is untrustworthy 12.8 (16.5) Because it's a coalition cabinet of the Democratic Party of Japan, Social Democratic Party, and People's New Party 16.7 (19.7) The prime minister lacks leadership ability 5.0 (5.7) Nothing can be expected of its economic policies 25.3 (35.0) Nothing can be expected of its foreign policy 4.5 (4.9) Nothing can be expected of its political reforms 16.4 (3.8) Nothing can be expected of its tax reforms 7.0 (2.7) Nothing can be expected of its administrative reforms 2.0 (3.1) Don't like the prime minister's personal character 7.6 (5.8) O/A 0.5 (0.9) D/K+N/A 2.2 (1.9) Q: Which political party do you support? Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 43.4 (47.6) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP or Jiminto) 21.1 (18.8) New Komeito (NK) 3.4 (3.7) Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2.7 (3.1) Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.9 (1.8) Your Party (YP or Minna no To) 1.3 (1.4) People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.5 (0.4) Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) --- New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.4 (---) Other political parties, groups 0.1 (---) None 24.5 (21.6) D/K+N/A 0.7 (1.6) Q: Mr. Sadakazu Tanigaki has become LDP president. Do you have high expectations for LDP President Tanigaki? Yes 37.0 No 53.4 D/K+N/A 9.6 TOKYO 00002553 009 OF 009 Q: The Hatoyama cabinet is a tripartite coalition government of the DPJ, SDP, and PNP. Do you think the coalition government has been working well? Yes 19.6 No 69.8 D/K+N/A 10.6 Q: What form of government would you like to see after next summer's election for the House of Councillors? The DPJ's single-party government 38.8 The current tripartite coalition government 24.5 The DPJ's coalition government with other political parties 22.0 O/A 1.7 D/K+N/A 13.0 (Note) Total percentage is over 100 PERCENT for multiple-choice answers. Polling methodology: The survey was conducted across the nation on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 by Kyodo News Service on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. Among randomly generated telephone numbers, those actually for household use with one or more eligible voters totaled 1,476. Answers were obtained from 1,025 persons. ROOS