JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 2/03/09

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 000252

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 2/03/09

Index:

Defense and security affairs

1) U.S. satellites confirm that North Korea readying launch of
possibly improved version of Taepodong missile (Sankei)
2) Japan's anti-piracy operation in waters off Somalia will involve
a network of shared information between the military and civilian
sides (Nikkei)
3) Maritime Self-Defense Force vessels engaged in anti-piracy
mission off Somalia will not join multinational force for fear of
having to use armed force (Tokyo Shimbun)
4) Defense Ministry plans to use official plane to evacuate any
Japanese citizen overseas who comes down with new-type influenza
(Yomiuri)

5) Japan planning conference to assist Pakistan, possibly aiming to
send love call to Obama administration (Tokyo Shimbun)

6) Thai prime minister to visit Japan to press for more investments
(Mainichi)

Political agenda:
7) Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) actions in the Diet these days
are getting harder to fathom (Sankei)
8) DPJ to confront ruling parties on bills related to second
supplementary budget (Yomiuri)
9) Lower House Budget Committee to start deliberations on fiscal
2009 budget bill (Mainichi)

Articles:

1) N. Korea preparing to launch Taepodong missile

SANKEI (Top play) (Abridged)
February 3, 2009

North Korea is preparing to launch a Taepodong-2 long-range
ballistic missile that can be tipped with a nuclear warhead,
government sources revealed yesterday. U.S. and other reconnaissance
satellites have confirmed the moves that are believed to be prepared
for launching. The Taepodong missile will likely be readied in a
month or two. North Korea is strongly opposed to the hardline stance
of Japan and South Korea toward North Korea, so North Korea is
believed to be preparing to launch a missile against it. However,
North Korea, should it launch the missile, will inevitably bring
about an international backlash. It will also likely have a serious
impact on the six-party talks.

According to several government sources, U.S. and other
reconnaissance satellites have confirmed trucks entering and going
out of a new missile site currently under construction in
Tongchang-dong in the northeastern North Korean province of
Pyonganpukdo. A large missile container has been brought in. Judging
from the container's size, the missile is believed to be the
Taepodong-2 or a larger one.

North Korea has already been found to have conducted an engine
ignition test at the launch facility by last fall. North Korean
missiles use liquid fuel, which means that it will take considerable
time to ready a missile on the launching pad and fuel it.
Accordingly, its launch is highly likely to be a couple of months

TOKYO 00000252 002 OF 008


away.

2) Gov't, shipping industry to share shipping info for antipiracy
measures

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged)
February 3, 2009

The government, which is now planning to send two Maritime
Self-Defense Force destroyers to waters off the coast of Somalia for
an antipiracy mission, will start up an information network with the
shipping industry by March to share such information as the running
schedules of the two MSDF destroyers and Japanese merchant ships
coming under the MSDF's protection. This information sharing will
make it possible for the MSDF vessels and merchant fleets to check
each other's navigational situation at once. It will be also
conducive to Japan in its cooperation with U.S. and European Union
naval ships currently deployed off the coast of Somalia.

The Land, Infrastructure and Transport Ministry, the Defense
Ministry, and the Japanese Shipowners' Association, which is made up
of shipping businesses, will cooperate to push for information
networking. The shipping industry will provide the transport
ministry in advance with such information as who owns ships and
whether Japanese crewmen are onboard. In case shipping companies
need to ask for protection, the transport ministry's antipiracy
liaison office will be a point of contact.

The government and the ruling parties will send the MSDF destroyers
by invoking an action for maritime policing activities under the
Self-Defense Forces Law as a 'stopgap' measure until a new law for
antipiracy measures is enacted. Under the law, the MSDF destroyers
will convoy Japanese ships. In addition, the MSDF is also expected
to protect Japan-linked ships, Japanese nationals onboard foreign
ships, and Japanese shipments carried by foreign ships.

3) Somalia anti-piracy mission: Defense Ministry not to allow MSDF
to join multinational forces to avoid use of force

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top play) (Abridged slightly)
February 3, 2009

The Defense Ministry, which is considering dispatching (Maritime
Self-Defense Force) destroyers and P-3C patrol planes on an
anti-piracy mission in waters off Somalia, plans to have the MSDF
carry out activities independently without joining the multinational
force framework in waters off Somalia due to restrictions under the
Constitution and the SDF Law, it was learned yesterday. At the same
time, the ministry intends to provide the multinational forces with
information on detected pirate ships and send SDF personnel to the
multinational forces for the coordination of operation of units.

There are two multinational forces engaged in anti-piracy operations
in waters off Somalia: one led by the European Union (EU) and the
other by the United States. Such countries as China, Russia and
India do not belong to either group.

In the Gulf of Aden, the EU is running Operation Atalanta
(headquartered in Britain) with the participation of destroyers of
Britain, France, Germany, and Greece. They are engaged in two types
of duties: (1) escorting United Nations World Food Program (WFP)
vessels and commercial vessels, and (2) having special commando

TOKYO 00000252 003 OF 008


units onboard commercial ships.

The United States, with its command in Bahrain, is engaged in a
variety of maritime operations. U.S.-led Combined Task Force
(CTF-150) has been conducting surveillance activities in the Indian
Ocean. The U.S.-led multinational forces set up CTF-151 on January 8
to deal with piracy in the Indian Ocean.

The MSDF has been conducting refueling operations for CTF-150 based
on the New Antiterrorism Special Measures Law. But the MSDF has not
joined the multinational forces for fear of resulting in the use of
force which is prohibited under Article 9 of the Constitution.

CTF-151's activities are centered on cracking down on piracy, which
the Japanese government has judged would not lead to the use of
force. Still, the force has not ruled out an armed conflict with a
state or state-like organization, namely a terrorist group. For this
reason, the government has concluded that participation in CTF-151
would be difficult.

The EU's Operation Atalanta is specialized in anti-piracy
operations. But because MSDF destroyers would be dispatched under a
maritime policing clause in the SDF Law, they would be able to
escort Japanese-related vessels only.

Unlike the EU, MSDF destroyers cannot protect all vessels desiring
escort. The government, thinking that such might result in friction,
is likely to give up joining the EU's operation, as well.

But based on the government's view that there is no problem in
providing general information, information on pirate ships detected
by P-3Cs will be provided to the U.S. military and the EU. The MSDF
is also planning to send liaison officers to the multinational force
command.

4) Defense Ministry plans on using government planes to bring
Japanese nationals back home following outbreak of new strain of
influenza overseas

YOMIURI (Page 1) (Abridged slightly)
February 3, 2009

The Defense Ministry has formulated its first action plan against
new strains of influenza. If a new strain of flu breaks out
overseas, commercial airlines will likely call off their flights,
thereby making it impossible for Japanese nationals to return home.
Envisaging such a case, the plan stipulates the dispatch of
Self-Defense Force aircraft, including government planes, to protect
Japanese nationals and the use of SDF hospitals. The plan will be
announced as early as March.

In addition, the plan specifies the cooperation of SDF medical
officers in the event airports and seaports become short of
quarantine officers as a result of the repatriations of a large
number of Japanese nationals.

In the event of an influenza epidemic, the SDF will transport food
and daily necessities and provide water to affected areas.

SDF hospitals with no infectious disease beds will accept as many
patients as possible only when there are patients that are beyond
the capacity of general hospitals.

TOKYO 00000252 004 OF 008



A government-wide action plan, which was announced in 2005, is
scheduled to be revised this month. Timed with this, the Defense
Ministry has compiled additional measures.

5) Japan planning conference to assist Pakistan, possibly aiming to
send love call to Obama administration

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
February 3, 2009

The government started preparations yesterday to host an
international ministerial-level conference in Japan possibly in
March to help the Pakistani government stabilize its economy. The
U.S. Obama administration has given priority to Pakistan and
Afghanistan as part of efforts to fight terrorism. Japan's move
apparently reflects the Aso administration's eagerness to strengthen
its ties with the Obama administration.

The government envisions the participation of European Union (EU)
member countries and those near Pakistan. It intends to come up with
an aid package worth billions of dollars, aside from the 7.2 billion
dollars worth of package announced by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) last year. The government is willing to carry out
coordination with the participants on what share each country should
bear.

Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Jun Matsumoto emphasized in a press
conference yesterday: "Stability in Pakistan will contribute to
quelling international terrorism, so this challenge is extremely
important. Japan would like to lend support in a positive manner."

The Obama administration has regarded Afghanistan and Pakistan as
main battlefields in the war on terror. This stance is behind the
government's willingness to host an international conference.

The government intends to help reconstruct Afghanistan mainly in the
economic, medical, and educational areas. In aid to Pakistan, as
well, it harbors this expectation: If Japan plays a leading role in
the international community, the Obama administration would welcome
Japan's role and "there eventually may be a positive impact on
Japan-U.S. relations." as a senior Foreign Ministry official said.

The government apparently is also hoping that the move will lead to
an early meeting between Prime Minister Aso and President Obama in
response to Aso's strong desire.

Good news for the Aso administration is an expected visit to Japan
by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in mid-February as the first
destination of her overseas trip in her new role. The government has
welcomed it as representing her stance of placing importance on
relations with Japan.

Even if Japan manages to hold an international conference of donors
to Pakistan in Japan, though, it seems difficult to coordinate views
on each nation's share of burden, given the ongoing global economic
crisis. Japan's diplomatic skill will be tested there.

6) Thai premier to visit Japan for more investments

ASAHI (Page 2) (Full)
February 3, 2009

TOKYO 00000252 005 OF 008



Satoru Fujita, Bangkok

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit, who will visit Japan on Feb. 5, met the
Japanese media yesterday in Bangkok and indicated his intention to
call on Japan to expand its investments in Thailand. He stated:
"Japan is our country's top economic partner.

When asked about the political turbulence in Thailand, including an
anti-government group's occupation of Bangkok International Airport,
the premier stressed that Thailand has now overcome the worst
situation. He said:

"Since I became prime minister (in mid-December),the situation has
substantially returned to stability. I will put all my energy to
regain public faith from now on as well."

"Investments from Japan are very important and there is room for
more investments in our country," Abhisit said when asked about the
reason for his decision to choose Japan for his second official
foreign visit after his visit to Laos.

The opposition party and an organization supporting former Prime
Minister Takshin have been calling for dissolving the Lower House
for a general election. Asked about this move, Abhisit denied the
possibility of an early dissolution, saying: "We are not in a
situation to jeopardize the political stability."

7) DPJ may be going off track

SANKEI (Page 5) (Slightly abridged)
February 3, 2009

Weekly magazines and other sources predict an overwhelming victory
of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the next general election.
There certainly is a possibility for the main opposition party to
grab political power, but its recent moves are hard to understand.

President Ichiro Ozawa reportedly said in a meeting with senior
members of the National Postmasters Association on Jan. 31: "The
House of Representatives will surely be dissolved in March, after
the budget for next fiscal year is enacted, and a general election
will be held in April, at the latest." This means that he will
cooperate in enacting the budget bill by the end of the current
fiscal year.

Over the second supplementary budget bill, since the two houses came
to different decisions, a meeting of the joint committee of the two
chambers was held on Jan. 26. The senior Upper House member of the
DPJ who was picked as chair by lottery easily declared to adjourn
the meeting and allowed the passage of the supplementary budget a
day late.

If the DPJ had tried to create the Image of the government and the
ruling camp being driven into a corner after all-night
deliberations, we would have been convinced. If the party was
satisfied at the one-day-late passage, such is indisputably based on
the same concept of the former Japan Socialist Party. What on earth
was the joint meeting?

The DPJ was calling for removing the 2-trillion-yen cash handout
plan from the government's second supplementary budget. If the party

TOKYO 00000252 006 OF 008


had demonstrated political power enough to draw out a pledge from
the government to the 2 trillion yen for other purposes, it would
have been able to score good points.

Deliberations on the budget bill for next fiscal year will soon
start in the Lower House. The focus of attention will be on whether
the budget bill will clear the Lower House later this month or in
early March. In this case, the passage of the bill into law in this
fiscal year will be confirmed, because the bill automatically
receives Diet approval 30 days after it clears the Lower House. A
passage in the first week of April is also regarded as enacted
within the fiscal year.

The following is a scenario envisioned by the Liberal Democratic
Party to delay dissolving the Lower House: If the House of
Councillors delays a vote on the budget-related bills, the
government will resort to the override vote tactics 60 days after
the bills are sent to the Upper House and will see the bills enacted
after the May Golden Week holidays, with only one month left until
the Diet is adjourned on June 3.

To undermine this scenario, it will be necessary for the opposition
party to have the bills enacted at an early date. We wonder if
Ozawa's remark is based on such a strategy. Has the DPJ been aware
of the need for high-level tactics of enacting the budget and
related bills within this fiscal year while raising opposition
outwardly?

8) DPJ to square off with ruling parties in deliberations on extra
budget; Ruling camp to fast-track FY2009 budget

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
February 3, 2009

The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has stepped up
its adversarial stance against the ruling parties over deliberations
in the House of Councillors on bills aimed to secure revenue sources
for the second supplementary budget for fiscal 2008. The ruling
coalition intends to give priority to deliberations on the budget
for fiscal 2009. It is hard to expect when the related bills will
obtain Diet approval.

Of the three related bills, the focus is being on a bill to secure
fiscal resources for the cash-payout program and for a cut in
highway tolls. As Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa will attend
Lower House Budget Committee sessions every day from today, the
Upper House Financial Affairs Committee will be unable to have time
for deliberations.

In an informal meeting yesterday of directors from the Upper House
Financial Affairs Committee, the ruling camp proposed holding
deliberations in the Upper House after the Lower House Budget
Committee session. The DPJ, however, turned down the proposal.
Yoriko Madoka, who is a DPJ member and chairs the Upper House Budget
Committee, said: "The Lower House should hold deliberations at
night."

The LDP is strongly critical of the DPJ, saying: "The economic
stimulus package has yet to be implemented due to the DPJ's delaying
tactics." However, in a session of all Upper House members, DPJ
Upper House Caucus Chairman Azuma Koshiishi rebutted: "We want to
start deliberations, but Finance Minister Nakagawa will not attend.

TOKYO 00000252 007 OF 008


I cannot accept such criticism."

9) Lower House committee to initiate deliberations on fiscal 2009
budget

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
February 3, 2009

A House of Representatives committee will begin today
interpellations on the government-drafted budget for fiscal 2009.
With the attendance of Prime Minister Taro Aso and all other cabinet
ministers, the ruling and opposition parties will start a full-scale
debate. While the ruling coalition is aiming at getting the budget
bill through the Lower House in mid-February, the opposition bloc,
regarding the Budget Committee as the main political battle field,
intends to thoroughly pursue the Aso administration focusing on four
issues: 1) a consumption tax hike; 2) the practice of amakudari or
placing retiring senior bureaucrats into high-paying posts at
government-affiliated institutions and at private firms in the
industries that they oversaw; 3) the plan of integrating the special
account from road-related taxes into the general account; and 4)
employment.

"Deliberations on the budget bill will start tomorrow. I am looking
forward to an early enactment," Aso said in a Liberal Democratic
Party executive board meeting yesterday, calling for cooperation
from the LDP.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),the largest
opposition force, plans to let Goshi Hosono take the floor as a
questioner today and Naoto Kan, Seiji Maehara Akira Nagatsuma and
Sumio Mabuchi tomorrow.

However, the budget for fiscal 2009 bill is certain to clear the
Diet before the end of the current fiscal year. In the past, state
budget bills were sent to the House of Councillors after
deliberations for three weeks in the Lower House. If the Upper House
takes a vote on a budget bill within 30 days after receiving it, the
bill will naturally be passed the Diet. Thanks for the early
convocation of the current Diet session on Jan. 5, deliberations on
the budget started three to five days earlier than usual. A
mid-level DPJ lawmaker said: "It is difficult to drag out
deliberations until March in the Lower House."

Yet, the Upper House is still deliberating on bills related to the
second supplementary budget for fiscal 2008, which includes the 2
trillion yen cash-handout program. The Lower House cannot execute a
two-thirds overriding vote on the related bills before March 14.
Focusing on this point, the DPJ may prevent the Lower House Budget
Committee from opening its session, by asking Finance Minister
Shoichi Nakagawa to attend deliberations on the related bills in the
Upper House Financial Affairs Committee.

Moreover, it is uncertain when bills related to FY2009 budget will
clear the Diet. Even if both the budget and related bills are passed
through the Lower House in mid-February, the DPJ would delay
deliberations in the upper chamber. If that is the case, a second
vote in the lower chamber could slip to mid-April.

If such happens, an idea will emerge for submitting a stopgap bill
designed to separate tax-cut measure on which the ruling and
opposition camps can agree.

TOKYO 00000252 008 OF 008



ZUMWALT