MANAGING ALLIANCE ISSUES: A/S CAMPBELL'S

S E C R E T TOKYO 002369 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/J NSC FOR RUSSELL DOD FOR OSD/APSA - GREGSON/MITCHELL/SCHIFFER/HILL/BASALLA/HAMM PACOM FOR J00/J01/J5 USFJ FOR J00/J01/J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2029 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR JA SUBJECT: MANAGING ALLIANCE ISSUES: A/S CAMPBELL'S DISCUSSION WITH STATE MINISTER FOR OKINAWA MAEHARA Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James P. Zumwalt; Reasons 1.4 (B ) and (D) ¶1. (S) Summary: EAP A/S Kurt Campbell urged Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT) and State Minister for Okinawa Seiji Maehara to inform Prime Minister Hatoyama and Foreign Minister Okada that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Government's attempts to review every aspect of U.S.-Japan Alliance issues at once would undermine the Alliance and that the Japanese government should focus rather on one or two issues on which both governments could coordinate their approaches. He stressed that U.S. patience would wear thin if the DPJ Government continued to make multiple suggestions to review and adjust extant Alliance arrangements and underscored the need for a positive visit to Japan by the President as an important part of reaffirming the Alliance. Maehara side-stepped on Alliance issues, deferring to Foreign Minister Okada on substantive Japanese government feedback. He focused instead on local sentiments in Okinawa on realignment issues, stressing the need to counterbalance deterrence capabilities in Okinawa with the goal of reduced burdens on the local communities. He pointed to Okinawan local politics as a potential source of complications as the January election for Nago City Mayor portended a show-down between the incumbent Mayor, a proponent of Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF) plans, and an opponent who opposed FRF. U.S. plans to bring MV-22 aircraft to Camp Schwab would also influence the local communities' receptivity to FRF plans. The Social Democratic Party (SDP), which remained potent in Okinawa, continued to oppose off-shore construction plans for the FRF's V-shaped runways. A/S Campbell and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Michael Schiffer highlighted the importance of Japan's Indian Ocean refueling mission in support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF),stressing that Japan should regard support for Afghanistan and Pakistan from a multilateral standpoint, rather than from an Alliance context. End Summary. Managing Relations -------------- ¶2. (C) The U.S. Government recognized that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Government wished to examine adjustments in relations, particularly regarding the U.S.-Japan Alliance, visiting EAP A/S Kurt Campbell told Seiji Maehara, Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT) and State Minister for Okinawa in an October 11 discussion. A/S Campbell noted, however, that attempts to ""put every issue on the table at once"" would undermine the Alliance and cast doubt on the ability of both sides to fulfill security commitments. He asked Maehara to inform Prime Minister Hatoyama and Foreign Minister Okada to focus on one or two issues in the immediate term that both governments could address in a choreographed manner. A/S Campbell observed that the U.S. Government, to date, had not publicly responded with respect to multiple Japanese government suggestions for review and adjustment of Alliance arrangements, but should the current trend continue, U.S. patience would wear thin and pressure would build to criticize DPJ Government proposals. ""We need a positive visit by President Obama as part of the process of reaffirming the relationship,"" A/S Campbell added. Realignment Read-out -------------- ¶3. (S) Maehara said he welcomed A/S Campbell's views and would try his best to digest the information. He deferred, however, to Foreign Minster Okada as having the lead on Alliance-related issues. He cited the challenges faced by the Okinawa Prefecture, which had the lowest average income and highest unemployment rate among Japan's prefectures. Okinawa was also the only prefecture to have experienced a ground battle in World War II, a campaign that caused great loss of life. Maehara continued that Okinawans would feel indignant if they believed that they were being bought off on base issues. By the same token, he believed it was telling that he was planning to reduce the MLIT budget by one-seventh, but no budgetary cuts were scheduled for Okinawa. The goal of reducing burdens on Okinawa residents therefore had to counterbalance the U.S. objective of maintaining deterrence against China and North Korea with the U.S. military presence in the prefecture, Maehara asserted. ¶4. (S) A/S Campbell noted that support for realignment and plans for the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF) among Okinawa's mayors was unprecedented, and he asked for Maehara's read on the prefecture's local political situation. Maehara pointed out that the Nago City election in January would be key regarding prospects for successful implementation of realignment initiatives. Incumbent Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, who favored FRF plans, was running against FRF opponent Susumu Inamine, who enjoyed the support of the wife of former Mayor Tateo Kishimoto. Shimabukuro's defeat, explained Maehara, would imply the loss of local political support for FRF. He added that U.S. plans to introduce MV-22 (""Osprey"") aircraft into Camp Schwab would also impact the acceptability of FRF plans among local residents, due to noise concerns and the fact that the current environmental impact survey (EIS) did not include consideration of the deployment of MV-22 aircraft. (Note: Separately, DG Takamizawa told A/S Campbell that the EIS process did not require the inclusion of future aircraft. End Note.) Maehara continued that the Social Democratic Party (SDP),which remained strong in Okinawa, continued to oppose off-shore construction plans for the FRF's V-shaped runways. The fact that Prime Minister Hatoyama's campaign pledge to favor out-of-Okinawa options for the FRF merited special editions of all local Okinawan newspapers should show the U.S. Government the depth of local feelings about realignment, Maehara observed. He concluded by asking for more information on FRF plans, particularly proposals on MV-22 aircraft and their airfield requirements. ¶5. (C) A/S Campbell committed to provide Maehara and senior DPJ Government leaders any information they might require in the course of their realignment review. Such briefings should be conducted privately, he added. A/S Campbell also noted that he wished to begin a dialogue on Okinawa that reached beyond base issues, to include greater opportunities for bilateral business and trade as well as educational exchanges. Indian Ocean Refueling -------------- ¶6. (S) A/S Campbell described Japan's Indian Ocean refueling mission in support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) as a symbol of Japan's engagement on a critical multilateral issue. He pointed out that the refueling operation had benefited U.S. allies more than the United States itself, though the U.S. Navy had highly valued the assistance. During and following the Japanese election, the U.S. Government had listened respectfully to DPJ calls to end refueling. While Defense Minister Kitazawa had been more categorical in his insistence on ending the mission, Foreign Minister Okada had appeared more flexible and had visited Afghanistan in recent days to look at other options for assistance, remarked A/S Campbell. He asserted that the announcement of a Japanese commitment to a mission supporting Afghanistan and Pakistan during President Obama's upcoming visit would give bilateral relations a ""boost of confidence."" Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for East Asia Michael Schiffer, who also took part in the discussion, added that Japan should not see Af/Pak contributions solely in the context of the Alliance, but rather in a multilateral context. He said Japan's contributions should be commensurate with its role in the world. China -------------- ¶7. (S) A/S Campbell noted Japanese public perceptions that U.S. foreign policy seemed to focus more on China, Iraq, and Afghanistan than Japan. U.S. and Japanese officials, however, had met nearly every week since the Japanese Lower House elections and had thus established a pattern for close interaction. A/S Campbell noted that the U.S. Government hoped to avoid any perception of a gap between the United States and Japan, particularly vis-a-vis China. The United States and Japan needed to work with China, but the reality was that both governments were in a relentless competition with the PRC. A strong U.S.-Japan relationship would give both sides the confidence and flexibility needed to address such development. ¶8. (U) A/S Campbell has cleared this message. ROOS