JAPAN INCHES CLOSER TO SETTING MID-TERM CLIMATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000233

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2013
TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG ELTN EWWT PREL JA
SUBJECT: JAPAN INCHES CLOSER TO SETTING MID-TERM CLIMATE
TARGETS

REF: 08 TOKYO 1585

TOKYO 00000233 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge D'Affaires James P. Zumwalt for Reasons 1.4 (b),
(d)


1. (C) Summary: A subcommittee of scientists and academics is
close to finalizing its recommendations for Japan's mid-term
climate targets, according to a Ministry of Environment (MOE)
official. The Council on Global Warming Issues will weigh
these recommendations and advise the Prime Minister, who is
expected to announce Japan's mid-term targets, "some time
later this year." The Environment Ministry strongly supports
the Major Economies process and hopes U.S. support will
continue. End Summary.

Scientific Committee Close to Recommending Climate Targets
-------------- --------------


2. (C) The GOJ's Mid-term Target Expert Subcommittee is
close to finalizing a list of options it will present to the
full Council on Global Warming Issues, according to Deputy
Director of MOE's Office of International Strategy on Climate
Change Kotaro Kawamata. The subcommittee is made up of
senior officials from scientific and academic institutions
such as the Japan Research Institute, the Institute for
Global Environmental Strategies, and the National Institute
for Environmental Studies. Kawamata expects the subcommittee
to agree on a list of options to achieve a range of mid-term
greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions at its next meeting which
takes place in February. The recommendations will be based
primarily on scientific criteria, without regard to economic
cost or political viability.


3. (C) The Council on Global Warming Issues -- consisting of
13 industry, government and academic representatives and
chaired by former Toyota Chairman Hiroshi Okuda - will then
consider the range of options and weigh them against
financial and political considerations before making
recommendations to the Prime Minister. Kawamata declined to
give a more specific date of when Japan would announce its
mid-term targets beyond "some time later this year."


4. (C) When asked whether the slowdown in Japan's economy
had affected the targets, Kawamata said the Nikkei Research
Center had recently revised its growth predictions down and
factored this into its anticipated demand for energy and
estimated GHG emissions. He asserted, however, the slow
economy would have a minor effect on mid-term targets because
the GOJ expects the recession to end "soon." Regarding the
sectoral approach the GOJ advocates in international climate
negotiations, Kawamata said a gap remains between top-down
goals then PM Fukuda announced as part of his "Low Carbon
Society" (Reftel) and bottom-up GHG reductions proposed by
Japanese industry. Closing this gap would be the GOJ's
biggest challenge in setting mid-term targets.

Environment Ministry Hopes MEM will Continue
--------------


5. (C) Kawamata said MOE believes the major economies (MEM)
process is a constructive forum for building consensus on
actions to address climate change and will be "very important
to the success of Copenhagen." He added MEM has proven more
agile than the UNFCCC in closing positions between developed
and developing countries. He expressed hope the U.S. would

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continue to support the MEM process. Kawamata said MOE is
looking forward to a MEM leaders meeting on the margins of
the G-8 summit in Italy in July. He implied such a meeting
would create strong pressure on Japan to publicly announce
its mid-term targets before the summer.

Comment
--------------

6. (C) Prime Minister Aso has shown little urgency in
spelling out Japan's mid-term climate targets. Contacts in
MOE complain privately he has shown less interest in climate
change than his recent predecessors. End Comment.

ZUMWALT