JAPAN INCHES CLOSER TO SETTING MID-TERM CLIMATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000233 SIPDIS STATE FOR IO, G, EEB, EAP/J STATE ALSO FOR OES/EGC - TSTERN, TTALLEY, NBARTH, CSIERAWSKI DEPT PASS CEQ NSC FOR CCONNORS, JSHRIER, JLOI USDOC FOR NOAA CLIMATE CHANGE OFFICE - STHURSTON DOT FOR LLAWSON, CMITTELHOLTZ EPA FOR CGRUNDLER USDOE FOR S-3, RMARLAY, SRUEN FAA FOR CBURLESON PASS TO USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2013 TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG ELTN EWWT PREL JA SUBJECT: JAPAN INCHES CLOSER TO SETTING MID-TERM CLIMATE TARGETS REF: 08 TOKYO 1585 TOKYO 00000233 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge D'Affaires James P. Zumwalt for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A subcommittee of scientists and academics is close to finalizing its recommendations for Japan's mid-term climate targets, according to a Ministry of Environment (MOE) official. The Council on Global Warming Issues will weigh these recommendations and advise the Prime Minister, who is expected to announce Japan's mid-term targets, "some time later this year." The Environment Ministry strongly supports the Major Economies process and hopes U.S. support will continue. End Summary. Scientific Committee Close to Recommending Climate Targets -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The GOJ's Mid-term Target Expert Subcommittee is close to finalizing a list of options it will present to the full Council on Global Warming Issues, according to Deputy Director of MOE's Office of International Strategy on Climate Change Kotaro Kawamata. The subcommittee is made up of senior officials from scientific and academic institutions such as the Japan Research Institute, the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, and the National Institute for Environmental Studies. Kawamata expects the subcommittee to agree on a list of options to achieve a range of mid-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions at its next meeting which takes place in February. The recommendations will be based primarily on scientific criteria, without regard to economic cost or political viability. ¶3. (C) The Council on Global Warming Issues -- consisting of 13 industry, government and academic representatives and chaired by former Toyota Chairman Hiroshi Okuda - will then consider the range of options and weigh them against financial and political considerations before making recommendations to the Prime Minister. Kawamata declined to give a more specific date of when Japan would announce its mid-term targets beyond "some time later this year." ¶4. (C) When asked whether the slowdown in Japan's economy had affected the targets, Kawamata said the Nikkei Research Center had recently revised its growth predictions down and factored this into its anticipated demand for energy and estimated GHG emissions. He asserted, however, the slow economy would have a minor effect on mid-term targets because the GOJ expects the recession to end "soon." Regarding the sectoral approach the GOJ advocates in international climate negotiations, Kawamata said a gap remains between top-down goals then PM Fukuda announced as part of his "Low Carbon Society" (Reftel) and bottom-up GHG reductions proposed by Japanese industry. Closing this gap would be the GOJ's biggest challenge in setting mid-term targets. Environment Ministry Hopes MEM will Continue -------------- ¶5. (C) Kawamata said MOE believes the major economies (MEM) process is a constructive forum for building consensus on actions to address climate change and will be "very important to the success of Copenhagen." He added MEM has proven more agile than the UNFCCC in closing positions between developed and developing countries. He expressed hope the U.S. would TOKYO 00000233 002.2 OF 002 continue to support the MEM process. Kawamata said MOE is looking forward to a MEM leaders meeting on the margins of the G-8 summit in Italy in July. He implied such a meeting would create strong pressure on Japan to publicly announce its mid-term targets before the summer. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Prime Minister Aso has shown little urgency in spelling out Japan's mid-term climate targets. Contacts in MOE complain privately he has shown less interest in climate change than his recent predecessors. End Comment. ZUMWALT