LDP REELING AFTER LOSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002041 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL JA SUBJECT: LDP REELING AFTER LOSS REF: TOKYO 2000 TOKYO 00002041 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John V. Roos, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: With its thorough defeat in the August 30 Lower House election, the now-opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is facing an existential crisis. A power vacuum at its most senior levels, combined with widespread uncertainty about its political identity, are posing direct and fundamental challenges to the party that ruled Japan almost without interruption for the last 54 years. Although the problems it faces may appear insurmountable during this post-election period, the LDP does have a chance to win back some of the public's favor in the coming months. To do so, however, it must quickly redefine itself and show the Japanese people that it is again the best party to run the nation, especially if the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) proves itself incapable of living up to voters' expectations. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - Disarray, Power Vacuum - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Taking responsibility for the LDP's loss in the August 30 Lower House election, LDP President and Prime Minister Taro Aso announced he would step down as party head. A new party president will be chosen September 28, nearly two weeks after the DPJ-controlled Diet elects a new Prime Minister on September 16. Effectively, what this means is that LDP members must either nominate and vote for Aso or turn in a blank ballot. This has led to no small amount of discord within the party, with many questioning party leadership's thinking. As one Upper House member said, "It is ludicrous to write the name of Mr. Aso, who is resigning. It is better to hand in a blank paper." Other members of the party have expressed their displeasure with the timetable and have called for an earlier presidential election. ¶3. (C) In terms of who the new opposition LDP will tap to lead it, a number of party heavyweights have been mentioned: Agriculture Minister Shigeru Ishiba; former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman and former Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki; Acting Party Secretary General and former Land, Infrastructure, and Transport Minister Nobuteru Ishihara; former LDP Secretary General Koichi Kato; former LDP Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa; and former Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Kunio Hatoyama (who is also DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama's older brother). Currently, there is no clear favorite and some have already stated they would not run. For example, Health Minister Yoichi Masuzoe announced on September 2 that he would not seek the office of LDP President due to his role in the party's defeat. Noting that he had held Cabinet posts in three consecutive LDP-led administrations, Masuzoe said, "I bear responsibility in the defeat in the House of Representatives election as a member of the Cabinet." Former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, who unsuccessfully ran against Aso in last September's LDP party presidential race, also indicated she would not contend this year. ¶4. (C) Aso and other senior LDP officials have stated that the reason they decided to hold the party election late in September was to reserve time to consult closely with regional party offices and leaders, who have become increasingly isolated from the party. Until then, however, calls from other LDP lawmakers for a faster election process are bound to continue and cause tension within the party. - - - - - - - - Identity Crisis - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) In addition to a new leader, the LDP must also find a post-election identity and regain the electorate's trust. TOKYO 00002041 002.2 OF 002 Prime Minister Aso himself acknowledged that the public had lost confidence in the LDP, and particularly in its inability to effectively address social issues such as rising social inequalities and a lack of faith in Japan's future. Aso further admitted that the LDP failed to pay enough attention to its traditional support base, including the farming and construction industries, that had become badly weakened by structural reforms favored by former LDP Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. ¶6. (C) A host of other fundamental problems exist within the LDP. Conflicts between liberal and conservative elements within the party have surfaced and called into question the LDP's ability to unite as a viable opposition party to the DPJ. Aso believes that it can. He said that the LDP must reconsider what the word "conservative" means and live up to its own political beliefs: "The LDP is a conservative political party. We will preserve what needs to be preserved and change what needs to be changed. Protecting the family, the local community, and the country--conservatism is the foundation on which Japan is built." Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, an ally of Aso, said the LDP "should underscore our differences with the DPJ on foreign affairs, security, education, and other policies." However, media reports claim that liberals within the LDP appear to be tired of hearing the Abe-Aso line and that there is no consensus within the party on its identity and future. - - - - - - - - - Uncertain Future - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Looking for a silver lining in its loss, LDP supporters are calling the election an opportunity for "generational change" (sedai kotai),in contrast to the DPJ's slogan "regime change" (seiken kotai). With many of its older and more senior members having been swept from the political scene, younger party members such as Nobuteru Ishihara, the 52 year-old son of Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, will have the chance to introduce a fresh perspective on the party's identity and policies, as well as sell a new LDP to a wider range of voters. ¶8. (C) Furthermore, although Japanese voters showed that they were tired of the status quo, they have not yet indicated their trust in the DPJ, which is effectively being given a trial run. In the first major poll conducted after the election (from August 31 to September 1) by the Asahi Shimbun, 81% of respondents said they felt the reason for the DJP win was that the country wanted a new administration, while only 38% said the victory was due to support for the DPJ's policies. Overall support for the DPJ stood at just 39%, which is not a strong mandate. Particularly if the DPJ fails to deliver on its promises to turn the Japanese economy around and address social welfare issues, the LDP may find a renewed audience for its policies and platform. ¶9. (C) Aso and other senior LDP officials who survived the Lower House onslaught are determined to do just that. Aso's Minister for Consumer Affairs, Seiko Noda, is one: "The LDP has stayed behind the comfort of power for a long time. I want to work hard to create a new LDP." The day after the election, Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura admitted, "It was the people's rebuke against the LDP, which had been told time after time to change in response to their expectations but which did not." He then added, however, "We should accept (the defeat) as the people's severe criticism and encouragement for the party to change again and revive." ROOS