SECNAV, GOJ OFFICIALS DISCUSS "UNSHAKEABLE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002002 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL SUBJECT: SECNAV, GOJ OFFICIALS DISCUSS "UNSHAKEABLE" ALLIANCE, CHINA CONCERNS TOKYO 00002002 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM James P. Zumwalt for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In wide-ranging security discussions with Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus (SecNav) on August 26, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and Ministry of Defense (MOD) officials reaffirmed the importance of close security ties with the U.S. MOFA officials assured SecNav that force posture realignment would proceed even after an expected change in government with the August 30 elections. MOFA and MOD officials also stressed the importance of cooperative efforts to "counter the ambitions of a rising China." SecNav described the U.S.-Japan security alliance as "unshakeable" and a "bedrock of regional policy." He also underscored the importance of Japan's contributions to anti-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa; refueling service in support of Operation Enduring Freedom; and, joint ballistic missile defense (BMD) operations. END SUMMARY -------------- -------------- CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM OVER DPJ, CONCERN OVER REALIGNMENT DELAYS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In an August 26 discussion with visiting SecNav about his earlier stop in Guam to view progress on realignment initiatives, MOFA Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) Mitoji Yabunaka said he was "very encouraged" to hear of the continuing commitment to the realignment roadmap. He noted that the leadership of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) understands that continuity in policy is important and that "an overwhelming majority" of Japanese support the Alliance. Referring to DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama, Yabunaka said that political remarks intended for the domestic press should be viewed in the context of the election season. ¶3. (C) Referencing the reported delay on the U.S. side in the required Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for Guam, Yabunaka emphasized that the roadmap and timeline should remain firmly in place. He noted that next year is a critical period in Okinawan politics, with the anticipated signing of a crucial landfill agreement by Okinawa's governor. The U.S. and GOJ "need to provide (him) a good environment" to induce his signature, he explained. In response, SecNav assured Yabunaka that he had set up a "Guam Executive Council" within his office to ensure that a system is in place to manage projects, keep them on time, and ensure "no surprises." SecNav underlined that while domestic politics cannot be ignored, bilateral agreements are government-to-government documents that would be implemented regardless of politics. He also described the "bedrock" nature of U.S.-Japan relations. -------------- FRICTION WITH A "CONFIDENT" CHINA -------------- ¶5. (C) China has come to believe that the U.S. Navy and Japan "recognize China's (maritime) power and will easily accept it," according to Ministry of Defense (MOD) Defense Policy Bureau Director General Nobushige Takamizawa, who participated in a lunch hosted by Vice-Minister of Defense Kimito Nakae for SecNav. It is important that Japan and the United States, as allies, take the necessary "confidence correcting measures" to reduce this overconfidence in a non-confrontational manner, he noted. Chief of Maritime Staff Admiral Keiji Akahoshi, who also took part in the lunch, concurred with this view, adding that the leadership of China's navy has great vision and a clear plan for its upgrade and modernization. Akahoshi also expressed TOKYO 00002002 002.2 OF 002 the view that Japan's Maritime Self Defense Force needed much the same sort of leadership and vision. Commenting further on China's increased international maritime activity, Akahoshi said that he believes China's efforts off the Horn of Africa, while superficially anti-piracy activities, indicate China's real goal: "the continent behind" (i.e., Africa). He stressed that military exchanges with China are important to Japan, as they ensure a level of regional stability, but that close cooperation with the U.S. military remains key to any strategy. ¶4. (C) VFM Yabunaka called the lack of transparency in China's military budget an area of concern, and he said he believed that the reported budget is only half of the PRC's real expenditures. He also expressed frustration over China's independent "scientific exploration" of the Shirakaba oil and gas field in the East China Sea, which is supposed to be jointly developed with Japan. Similarly, he highlighted China's continued aggressive attitude towards the disputed Senkaku islands, commenting that "We must make sure that unnecessary events do not take place (between China and Japan); we need good understanding, but our U.S. Alliance must continue to be the basis of what we do." -------------- CYBERSPACE THE NEXT BATTLEFIELD -------------- ¶6. (C) China already has an advanced cyberwarfare capability, and this is an area where Japan must catch up, noted several MOD officials during the SecNav's lunch. Takamizawa remarked that there is a budget in place to develop a cyberspace defense unit, but that fiscal constraints make it extremely difficult to compete with the private sector for the most talented IT professionals. Vice-Minister Nakae concurred, explaining that greater efforts must be put in place to ensure a successful program. He also emphasized the importance of better training and staff education on the issue of cyber security. -------------- LAUDING REFUELING MISSION, BMD COOPERATION -------------- ¶7. (C) SecNav praised Japan's Indian Ocean refueling mission and Japan's cooperation on ballistic missile defense (BMD) in all his meetings. Admiral Akahoshi mentioned that Japan will soon be sending a third ship to Hawaii to test-fire a missile. He felt that Japan is "95% of the way there" in its Aegis BMD program and that he foresaw continued progress. He also emphasized that close cooperation between the U.S. Navy and Japan's MSDF would remain "invaluable" in all operations. In his discussions, SecNav underscored that close cooperation on multiple fronts would be critical in the current security environment. ¶8. (U) Due to SecNav's travel, we were unable to obtain his clearance for this cable. ROOS