JAPAN-CHINA: UPBEAT ASSESSMENT OF BILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000195

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/J

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH JA
SUBJECT: JAPAN-CHINA: UPBEAT ASSESSMENT OF BILATERAL
RELATIONS

REF: TOKYO 33

TOKYO 00000195 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Both Japanese Foreign Ministry officials
and PRC diplomats stationed in Tokyo are upbeat about the
current state of Sino-Japanese relations and optimistic about
the future of the relationship. Neither believes all
problems have been solved, however. Territorial disputes and
Japanese concerns over Chinese military spending remain as
sources of friction. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Our interlocutors in both MOFA and the Chinese
Embassy are expressing optimism about bilateral ties. During
separate meetings with Embassy Tokyo, they described as
successful the January 9 Sino-Japanese sub-Cabinet level
strategic dialogue between MOFA Vice Foreign Minister Mitoji
Yabunaka and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Guangya. The aim
of the dialogue, stressed Chinese Embassy Second Secretary
Chen Zhiwen, was to continue the goodwill generated from high
level meetings last year on the margins of ASEM and APEC and
at the Japan-China-South Korea Summit in Fukuoka (Ref A).
The dialogue was short--only a half-day, with time allotted
for interpretation--and "future oriented," noted Chen.
Discussions touched on contentious bilateral issues, such as
food safety and the longstanding dispute over resource
exploration in the East China Sea (ECS). In light of recent
discoveries of unannounced Chinese drilling, Yabunaka and
Wang reconfirmed the joint ECS development agreement
concluded in June 2008 and pledged to proceed rapidly with
working level talks.


3. (C) China's military buildup is still a clear source of
concern in Japan. In a separate meeting, MOFA China Division
Deputy Director Masaru Okada and desk officer Shigemi
Sugimura underscored GOJ misgivings about Chinese intentions
to build two AIRCRAFT carriers. Beijing's announcement in
December caught MOFA by surprise and "confirmed GOJ
suspicions about Chinese military expansion." The AIRCRAFT
carrier announcement also lends support to Japanese calls for
greater transparency in China's military spending, Okada and
Sugimura noted. They expressed uncertainty about the
declared purpose of the carriers and about the means by which
Beijing would pay for them.


4. (C) PRC diplomats here are quick to defend their
country's military acquisitions. The PRC Embassy's Chen
argued that the flattops are for defensive measures and,
similar to her country's counter-piracy deployment to the
Horn of Africa, can help China meet international obligations
and expectations. China wants to show it can make positive
global security contributions as a "responsible" major power,
she said.


5. (C) On China-Taiwan relations, the Japanese MOFA
officials assessed that Beijing and Taipei are taking a
careful, calibrated approach to improving ties, focusing
first on the economy--cargo, postal, and air links, for
example--and then perhaps transitioning to political
discussions. Military talks, the "most difficult" area,
would be a last step, our contacts said.


6. (C) Our interlocutors downplayed the effect political
changes in the United States and Japan would have on regional
dynamics. Our Japanese and Chinese counterparts viewed the
Obama Administration favorably and dismissed public and
private concerns about Washington focusing on China at
Japan's expense. They all noted that U.S.-Japan-China
relations are not "zero-sum" and that ties should be expanded
in all directions. Regarding a possible change of political
leadership in Japan, Chen mentioned that she did not see a
potential opposition-led government as disturbing the current
status quo in Sino-Japanese relations.

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ZUMWALT