JAPAN-CHINA: UPBEAT ASSESSMENT OF BILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000195 SIPDIS FOR EAP/J E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV CH JA SUBJECT: JAPAN-CHINA: UPBEAT ASSESSMENT OF BILATERAL RELATIONS REF: TOKYO 33 TOKYO 00000195 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Both Japanese Foreign Ministry officials and PRC diplomats stationed in Tokyo are upbeat about the current state of Sino-Japanese relations and optimistic about the future of the relationship. Neither believes all problems have been solved, however. Territorial disputes and Japanese concerns over Chinese military spending remain as sources of friction. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Our interlocutors in both MOFA and the Chinese Embassy are expressing optimism about bilateral ties. During separate meetings with Embassy Tokyo, they described as successful the January 9 Sino-Japanese sub-Cabinet level strategic dialogue between MOFA Vice Foreign Minister Mitoji Yabunaka and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Guangya. The aim of the dialogue, stressed Chinese Embassy Second Secretary Chen Zhiwen, was to continue the goodwill generated from high level meetings last year on the margins of ASEM and APEC and at the Japan-China-South Korea Summit in Fukuoka (Ref A). The dialogue was short--only a half-day, with time allotted for interpretation--and "future oriented," noted Chen. Discussions touched on contentious bilateral issues, such as food safety and the longstanding dispute over resource exploration in the East China Sea (ECS). In light of recent discoveries of unannounced Chinese drilling, Yabunaka and Wang reconfirmed the joint ECS development agreement concluded in June 2008 and pledged to proceed rapidly with working level talks. ¶3. (C) China's military buildup is still a clear source of concern in Japan. In a separate meeting, MOFA China Division Deputy Director Masaru Okada and desk officer Shigemi Sugimura underscored GOJ misgivings about Chinese intentions to build two aircraft carriers. Beijing's announcement in December caught MOFA by surprise and "confirmed GOJ suspicions about Chinese military expansion." The aircraft carrier announcement also lends support to Japanese calls for greater transparency in China's military spending, Okada and Sugimura noted. They expressed uncertainty about the declared purpose of the carriers and about the means by which Beijing would pay for them. ¶4. (C) PRC diplomats here are quick to defend their country's military acquisitions. The PRC Embassy's Chen argued that the flattops are for defensive measures and, similar to her country's counter-piracy deployment to the Horn of Africa, can help China meet international obligations and expectations. China wants to show it can make positive global security contributions as a "responsible" major power, she said. ¶5. (C) On China-Taiwan relations, the Japanese MOFA officials assessed that Beijing and Taipei are taking a careful, calibrated approach to improving ties, focusing first on the economy--cargo, postal, and air links, for example--and then perhaps transitioning to political discussions. Military talks, the "most difficult" area, would be a last step, our contacts said. ¶6. (C) Our interlocutors downplayed the effect political changes in the United States and Japan would have on regional dynamics. Our Japanese and Chinese counterparts viewed the Obama Administration favorably and dismissed public and private concerns about Washington focusing on China at Japan's expense. They all noted that U.S.-Japan-China relations are not "zero-sum" and that ties should be expanded in all directions. Regarding a possible change of political leadership in Japan, Chen mentioned that she did not see a potential opposition-led government as disturbing the current status quo in Sino-Japanese relations. TOKYO 00000195 002.2 OF 002 ZUMWALT