JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 08/14/09

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 TOKYO 001851 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 08/14/09 Index: 1) Ambassador Roos arriving at Tokyo post next week: Charge? Zumwalt (Nikkei) Defense and security: 2) U.S. government's strategic report, Nuclear Posture Review, stresses credibility of "nuclear umbrella" over Japan and other allies, centered on extended deterrence (Sankei) 3) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to present at extraordinary Diet session new version of ship-search bill targeting North Korea that was scrapped in last session (Sankei) 4) Okinawa residents stage protest rally five years after Futenma-based helicopter crash into university campus (Akahata) DPJ and Yasukuni: 5) DPJ plans to set up panel of experts to make recommendations about the creation of a national war memorial (Sankei) 6) Views of Yasukuni Shrine differ in the DPJ, which is proposing to create a secular war-dead memorial to replace the controversial shrine visits (Nikkei) 7) South Korea welcomes DPJ President Hatoyama's plan for a national war-dead memorial (Nikkei) Election campaign: 8) Prime Minister Aso, DPJ President Hatoyama debate on TV money and politics, secret nuclear pact (Yomiuri) 9) Internet poll: 59% see policy debate is lacking in the current election campaign (Nikkei) 10) Positive economic growth now likely after five quarters (Nikkei) Articles: 1) New U.S. Ambassador Roos will arrive at his post as early as next week: Charg Zumwalt NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) August 14, 2009 James Zumwalt, charg d'affaires ad interim at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo, met some Japanese reporters yesterday at his official residence and told them that new U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos will arrive at his post as early as next week. Charg Zumwalt pointed out that building a stable U.S.-Japan relationship with the new Japanese government to be inaugurated after the upcoming House of Representatives election would be an immediate goal for the new ambassador and that he would further promote bilateral exchanges in such areas as environmental protection and energy conservation technology, the development of venture markets, and education. DEFENSE AND SECURITY 2) U.S. Nuclear Posture Review stresses reliability of "nuclear umbrella," focuses on expanded deterrence SANKEI (Page 8) (Full) August 14, 2009 Takashi Arimoto, Washington TOKYO 00001851 002 OF 008 This newspaper learned on August 13 that the U.S. government is designating "expanded deterrence," including the "nuclear umbrella" for Japan and other allies, as the "core element" of its nuclear policy in its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR),a report which outlines U.S. nuclear strategy. It is believed that this is meant to emphasize the reliability of the "nuclear umbrella" with growing concerns in Japan about North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons. In the wake of President Barack Obama's speech in Prague in April, the U.S. is aiming at effective nuclear deterrence as it works for a reduction of the role of nuclear arms. The NPR is a blueprint of nuclear policy in the next five to ten years. It is being drafted by the Department of Defense and other offices and will be submitted to Congress before the end of the year. According to internal documents of the Defense Department obtained by Sankei Shimbun, "expanded deterrence" is defined as "fulfilling our treaty obligations (to our allies)," stressing that this will also prevent allies under the "nuclear umbrella" from developing nuclear arms, thus "contributing to the goal of nuclear non-proliferation." The report explains that President Obama's Prague speech is regarded as the "basis of the review," and that America will "continue to study how to make the long-term goal of a world without nuclear weapons compatible (with expanded deterrence)." The report stresses that while reducing the role of nuclear arms and cutting the stockpile of nuclear warheads, "safe, reliable, and effective nuclear deterrence will also be maintained." Comparing the new NPR with the two reviews conducted under the Clinton administration (1994) and Bush administration (2002), Elizabeth Turpen, senior researcher at the U.S. think tank Henry L. Stimson Center, points out that in the new NPR, "the U.S. government is listening to its allies carefully for the first time." She explains that this is due to doubts expressed on the reliability of the "nuclear umbrella." 3) Changing tack, DPJ will now submit cargo inspection law targeting North Korea to extraordinary Diet session SANKEI (Page 3) (Excerpts) August 14, 2009 The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) decided on August 13 to re-submit the special measures law on cargo inspection on North Korea-related ships, which was scrapped at the previous Diet session, to the extraordinary Diet session this fall if it takes over the administration after the House of Representatives election. In order to enable the implementation of the law immediately after enactment, it has begun coordination with the government on an ordinance listing the items subject to cargo inspection. Coordination is underway for the bill to have provisions practically similar to the scrapped bill submitted by the government to the previous Diet, and the new bill is likely to pass with the support of the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito. The DPJ had refused to deliberate the cargo inspection bill at the House of Councillors during the previous Diet session because it gave priority to political maneuvering over policies, submitting and passing a motion of censure on Prime Minister Taro Aso at the Upper TOKYO 00001851 003 OF 008 House. This caused the bill to be scrapped. However, once it takes over the reins of government, it expects to be asked by the U.S. and other countries to participate in cargo inspections. Thus, the DPJ has judged that legislation is necessary as soon as possible. The DPJ has also included cargo inspection in its manifesto (campaign pledges) for the Lower House election. According to several senior party officials, the DPJ leadership has agreed on submitting the bill to the extraordinary Diet session. Discussions with government officials on the provisions of the bill and the ordinance are being held with President Yukio Hatoyama's approval. While there had been a suggestion in the DPJ to also amend the ship inspection operations law on ship inspections by the Self-Defense Forces, the enactment of the cargo inspection special measures law will be given priority for now, since a comprehensive review of the ship inspection law will take time, and this may delay Japan's participation in international cargo inspections. Okinawa International University holds protest meeting to mark fifth anniversary of helicopter crash, demands immediate return of Futenma base 4) AKAHATA (Page 1) (Excerpts) August 14, 2009 The Okinawa International University (president, Moritake Tomikawa) held a protest meeting on August 13 to mark the fifth anniversary of the crash of a U.S. military helicopter on the campus at the site of the crash in front of the university's administration building. This was the first official protest meeting organized by the university. Some 200 faculty and staff members and students attended the meeting. President Tomikawa read out a statement and professors and students made speeches to express their opinion. They demanded an immediate stop to flights by aircraft using the Futenma base and the closure of this base as soon as possible from the Japanese and U.S. governments. Tomikawa stated that it is "extremely regrettable" that U.S. military aircraft continue to fly over the university even after the accident, and the problem has not been resolved at all. He also said: "No matter how they justify these flights with theories of international politics and national security, such flights threatening the peace and quiet of the university, and even people's lives are unacceptable." An exhibit of photos and video footages of the "shocking and horrible sight" of the crash is being held at the university's library from August 13-15. A symposium on how to remove the danger posed by the Futenma base, organized by the city of Ginowan, will also be held on August 15. DPJ AND YASUKUNI 5) DPJ to promote plan to build national war memorial SANKEI (Top Play) (Slightly abridged) August 14, 2009 The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) decided yesterday to promote a plan to build a national war memorial to replace Yasukuni Shrine if the party takes over the reins of government in the upcoming House TOKYO 00001851 004 OF 008 of Representatives election. The party, after launching the administration, intends to set up an expert panel within the government and start preparations for the plan, based on recommendations by the panel. The Social Democratic Party (SDP), with which the DPJ is willing to form a coalition, also decided yesterday to formulate a construction plan. A number of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members remain negative about such a plan. The construction plan is likely to become a new campaign issue for the Lower House election. In a press conference at party headquarters yesterday, DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada said the party will pursue a plan to build a new facility, remarking: "A place to memorialize those who died for the sake of their country and the people is necessary." He further said that the party will determine what facility should be built, reflecting experts' views. In reference to the fact that he serves as president of the incorporated foundation that manages Chidorigafuchi National Cemetery, Okada also indicated his willingness to expand the cemetery, remarking: "I have half a mind to make use of Chidorigafuchi." The DPJ specified in its policy index released in July: "The party will work on building a new non-religious national memorial facility." But its manifesto (policy platform) for the Lower House election did not refer to this idea. On Aug. 12, however, President Yukio Hatoyama expressed his eagerness to create a new memorial facility, saying that if the party assumes power, "we would like to promote the plan of building a national memorial facility where everyone can pay homage without feeling uncomfortable." The statement by Okada yesterday pushed this plan a step forward. Meanwhile, SDP executives met yesterday and decided to formulate a construction plan for the memorial facility within four years. Deputy Secretary General Nobuto Hosaka in a press conference praised Hatoyama's statement. The plan to construct a memorial facility was included in a report of recommendations issued in 2002 by a private panel to then Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, based on the criticism of then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's annual visits to Yasukuni Shrine. But LDP members were critical of this idea, citing such reasons as "wasteful spending of taxpayers' money" and "the idea is to undermine the status of Yasukuni Shrine." The government has put off appropriating research expenses for this plan. 6) Argument calling for building national memorial for the war dead: Long-standing thorny issue; Difficulties expected before settlement NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) August 14, 2009 With the anniversary of the end of the war close at hand on August 15, what should be done about Yasukuni Shrine and the notion of creating a (secular) national memorial for the war dead are beginning to reemerge as a political issue. This is because Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama has said that he would consider creating a memorial for the war dead to replace Yasukuni Shrine, if his party takes the reins of government in the Lower House election on the 30th. The plan has appeared and then disappeared many times during past administrations, intertwined TOKYO 00001851 005 OF 008 with Japan's diplomacy to Asia. Many difficulties are expected before the problem, including Yasukuni, is settled. Hatoyama underscores stance of attaching importance to Asia Referring to whether he will visit Yasukuni Shrine if he becomes prime minister, Hatoyama during a press conference on the 11th said: "I myself have no intention of visiting the shrine. I would also like ministers of my cabinet to refrain from visiting it." He stressed that he would honor the Murayama statement, issued by then Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama in 1995. Hatoyama's stance indicated an attaching of importance to Asia. Creating a national war memorial has been Hatoyama's pet argument. As to why he wants to see such built, he said on the 12th: "Class-A war criminals are enshrined at Yasukuni Shrine. The Emperor does not visit the shrine. I believe this is painful for him." However, what to do about Yasukuni Shrine and the establishment of a war-dead memorial are tough issues that past administrations tackled but failed to resolve. A senior official said, "This is not an issue that can be settled easily even with a change of administration." History of fortune of argument calling for building national memorial When Hiromu Nonaka was chief cabinet secretary during the Obuchi administration, he proposed turning Yasukuni Shrine into a special public corporation to dilute its religious connection. He also wanted to enshrine Class-a War criminals elsewhere. He tried to shape concrete measures, launching an informal council to discuss Yasukuni Shrine within the Liberal Democratic Party. However, the initiative was in effect put on the backburner when many party members and the Japan War-Bereaved Association opposing it. In 2002 during the Koizumi administration, then chief cabinet secretary Yasuo Fukuda's personal discussion council compiled a report noting the necessity of building a memorial for the war dead that will replace Yasukuni Shrine. Koizumi pledged to build such a memorial. However, as he himself visited the shrine, China and South Korea reacted negatively, hampering the discussion. When the Fukuda administration was launched in 2007, the plan appeared to make headway. However, meeting opposition from within the party, even the earmarking of a budget for a survey of such a facility was put on hold. Prime Minister Aso cautious A senior Cabinet Office official pointed out, "Since building such a memorial would cost an enormous amount of money, there is a problem about the priority order." Prime Minister Taro Aso is also cautious about the idea of building a memorial. In 2006, when he was a foreign minister, the prime minister released his private proposal for shifting the status of Yasukuni Shrine shifting to a non-religious public corporation from its current status as a religious organization. Since then, he is just continuing make statements, based on this private plan. Creating a secular memorial will not ensure the settlement of the Yasukuni issue. DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada during a press conference on the 13th said: "The nation should have a proper TOKYO 00001851 006 OF 008 memorial (for the war dead). However, there may appear prime ministers in the future who want to visit Yasukuni Shrine. (The memorial) should be looked into separately from the Yasukuni issue." There exist differences in stances among DPJ members with some visiting Yasukuni Shrine on the anniversary of the end of the War. During the Koizumi administration, there was a case in which (South Korea) had high expectations of the prime minister. But the ROK felt greatly let down when Koizumi visited Yasukuni Shrine, and the bilateral relationship suffered for it. 7) South Korea welcomes Japan building national memorial for war dead NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) August 14, 2009 Shimao Ojima, Seoul Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Hatoyama has announced his intention to look into building a new national memorial for the war dead if his party takes the reins of government. South Korea has taken this announcement favorably. Responding to a question asked by Nihon Keizai Shimbun, the ruling Grand National Party press secretary on August 13 welcomed the announcement, saying, "A settlement of one sensitive issue concerning Japan and South Korea will contribute to further deepening bilateral relations." The Maeli Business Newspaper on the 14th reported, "The announcement can be taken as a change in the direction of Japan's foreign policy to attaching importance to Asia." The Chinese government is taking a stance of closely watching how the discussion will develop, including to what extent the alternative facility can replace the role of Yasukuni Shrine, based on its position of opposing the Japanese prime minister visiting Yasukuni Shrine, where Class-A criminals are enshrined. Tsinghua University Professor Liu Jingyong said, "I cannot evaluate the statement, since I do not know its details." ELECTION CAMPAIGN 8) Sparks fly between Aso and Hatoyama in TV debate program YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) August 14, 2009 Prime Minister Taro Aso, president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama, New Komeito leader Akihiro Ota, Japanese Communist Party (JCP) Chairman Kazuo Shii, Social Democratic Party (SDP) Chairperson Mizuho Fukushima, and People's New Party (PNP) leader Tamisuke Watanuki appeared on a TBS program yesterday evening. They held a debate prior to the forthcoming House of Representatives election. Referring to the allegations that the Japanese and U.S. governments signed a secret agreement that Japan would give a tacit approval to port calls by U.S. warships carrying nuclear weapons, Hatoyama said: "When we form a new government, we would like to conduct a thorough investigation and open the results to the public." He also expressed a positive view about setting up a joint consultative panel of the ruling and opposition parties to discuss pension-system reform. TOKYO 00001851 007 OF 008 Aso criticized the issue of Hatoyama's fund-management organization's false reports on political funds, saying: "Just correcting the reports is not acceptable. You should hold your secretary accountable." Hatoyama responded: "I fired the secretary. I think I have fulfilled my responsibility but if that is insufficient, I will continue to do make efforts." Referring also to the DPJ's pledge to review the interpretation of the right of the use of collective self-defense, Aso stressed: "We should not forget the fact that North Korea is a neighboring country. Considering the case of warships of the United States, our ally, being attacked, it is important for Japan to create a situation under which the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) can defend those ships." 9) Internet survey on Lower House election: 59% of surveyed say policy debate insufficient NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) August 14, 2009 The Nihon Keizai Shimbun yesterday conducted its third Internet poll on the upcoming House of Representatives election. Of those who answered in the previous poll held on July 28-30 that they had not yet decided which party to cast their votes for, 10 percent of respondents this time said they would vote for the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),while seven percent said that they would vote for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Of the respondents who said in the previous poll that they would vote for the LDP, five percent switched to the DPJ in the latest poll, while only one percent of the respondents who had said they would vote for the DPJ changed to the LDP. Although there is no change in the situation that the DPJ is leading over the LDP in the polls, the transfer of voters from the LDP to the DPJ has slowed down. Of the pollees who said in the previous poll that they had not decided on which candidate they would vote in the electoral district races, 16 percent of respondents in the latest poll said they would vote for the DPJ, while 7 percent said the LDP. Only one percent of the respondents who had said in the previous poll that they would vote for the LDP said in the third poll that they would vote for the DPJ, while two percent of the respondents who had said that they would vote for the DPJ answered that they would vote for the LDP. More than 90 percent said that they would definitely vote or plan to vote. Forty-nine percent, up two percentage points from the previous poll, said that they had decided on which candidate in the district races to vote. Only two percent thought that policy debate was sufficient, while 35 percent thought that policy debate was conducted to some extent, up nine percentage points from the previous poll. The percentage of respondents who said policy debate was insufficient decreased 10 percentage points to 59 percent. The survey was conducted over the Internet by Nikkei Research on 1,095 male and female voters. The response rate was 34.5 percent in the first poll, 34.1 percent in the second one, and 31.3 percent in the third one. 10) GDP in April-June quarter seen growing for first time in five quarters, but domestic demand remains weak TOKYO 00001851 008 OF 008 NIKKEI (Page 3) (Full) August 14, 2009 The nation's gross domestic product (GDP) in the April-July period is likely to grow for the first time in five quarters, according to estimates to be released by the Cabinet Office on Aug. 17. The economy is estimated to grow at an annualized rate of 3.4% in real terms from the previous quarter, according to the average estimate of 28 private-sector research institutions. Yet, there is concern that future growth could slow down again. QUICK Corp. conducted the survey as part of its macro-economic predictions. The government's stimulus measures and foreign demand drove up the growth rate. The institutions estimate increases of 0.8% in consumer spending as environment-friendly appliances and other products, 9.8% in public investment, and 9.1% in exports, which reflected increased shipments to China. Domestic demand, however, is seen as down for the fifth straight quarter due to the continued tumble of residential investment and capital investment. The Japanese economy was buoyed up by the increased government spending in various countries, but it has yet to be back on a self-sustaining recovery track. Many observers anticipate economic growth may slow down again in the July-September quarter and beyond. Meantime, no end is in sight to the current loose monetary policy taken by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to deal with the economic crisis. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa commented: "The central government will take policy maneuver while bearing a possible economic tumble in mind for the time being." Overnight index swaps (OIS) imply the BOJ's policy rate will be at the mid-0.1% level one year from now. This figure is virtually the same as the current level of 0.1%. In the U.S., as well, an official of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) said: "It is likely to be justified that the bank will keep its policy rate at an unprecedented low level for a long period." Europe is also likely to maintain the current policy rate for the time being. The economies of Japan, the U.S. and Europe are emerging from their worst period, but they are still saddled with serious problems such as unemployment, so it is difficult to imagine a return to a growth pattern. Bringing to an end those measures taken to cope with the economic crisis is not likely to be easy. ZUMWALT