DPJ GROUPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 001812 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/J E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL JA SUBJECT: DPJ GROUPS TOKYO 00001812 001.2 OF 009 Classified By: A/DCM RON POST, REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: With the possibility of a DPJ victory in the August 30 Lower House election, how the party is organized will impact its decision-making process and the assignment of key positions within the government and Diet. Post-election maneuvering within the party, and differing loyalties to party leadership, will also impact how the party and a DPJ-led government might be run. This cable describes the DPJ's groups and their leaders, policy focus, and membership. It also highlights how these groups differ from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) factions. END SUMMARY. -------------- Background on Groups Within the DPJ -------------- ¶2. (C) The DPJ has eight major groups and one quasi-group, and they have ideological orientations ranging from liberal to conservative. The majority, including the Hatoyama, Ozawa, Maehara, Noda, Kawabata, and Hata groups, are conservative. They support the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and, in general, free market economics and competition. The other two, the Kan and Yokomichi groups, are liberal and progressive. They support, but are more critical of, the U.S.-Japan Alliance and focus on social welfare and equality. The one quasi-group supports DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada, but refrains from group-centered activities. Members affiliate themselves with particular groups based on their policy ideas, personal connections, individual beliefs, and favors received from group leaders during previous elections. Some members belong to multiple groups and refrain from clarifying their policy positions. ¶3. (C) The eight leaders of the DPJ groups are: -- President Yukio Hatoyama -- Acting Vice President Ichiro Ozawa -- Acting President Naoto Kan -- Vice President Seiji Maehara -- Rep. Yoshihiko Noda -- Rep. Takahiro Yokomichi -- Vice President Tatsuo Kawabata -- Former Prime Minister Tsutomu Hata -------------- How DPJ Groups Differ From LDP Factions -------------- ¶4. (C) DPJ groups and the LDP factions differ greatly in purpose and orientation. The LDP factions' power traditionally has been based on the ability to provide financial support and secure Cabinet and party posts for faction members, thereby guaranteeing factional loyalty. Although the "money game" is less important following changes in Japan's electoral system and in the Political Funding Control Law, LDP factions still support their members financially and continue to use their influence whenever possible to secure appointments in the government and party. DPJ groups, on the other hand, are more focused on policy and lack the enticement of money or posts, though that will likely change under a DPJ government. -------------- The Hatoyama Group -------------- ¶5. (C) President Yukio Hatoyama's "Seiken Kotai wo Jitsugen suru Kai" (Group to Realize Change of Government) expanded after the 2007 Upper House election to 46 members, 30 of whom are active. Hatoyama's three closest advisors are Reps. Hirofumi Hirano, Sakihito Ozawa, and Yorihisa Matsuno. Hirano, especially, is known as the go-between for Hatoyama and other DPJ members, and reporters think he is likely to receive a key post (such as Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary or TOKYO 00001812 002.2 OF 009 a key party post) should Hatoyama become Prime Minister. Hatoyama attracts followers with his commitment to strengthening Japanese democracy, and group meetings have been dubbed the "Hatoyama Salon" because of the wealth and political pedigree of the "rich kids" who attend them. ¶6. (C) A self-described liberal, Hatoyama is in fact conservative on foreign and security policy. He has privately advocated constitutional revision to allow Japan more responsibility for its own security; he maintains a tough stance against the DPRK; and he once argued that Japan should be armed with nuclear weapons. Since becoming the party president, Hatoyama has moderated his hawkish views to maintain unity within the party and with the Socialists, but he continues to favor a more active Japanese role within a "more balanced" U.S.-Japan alliance. ¶7. (C) Although Hatoyama distanced himself from Ozawa after the latter's failed attempt to create a grand coalition with the LDP, recently Hatoyama has learned to use Ozawa's unparalleled skill in election strategy. By appointing Ozawa as the Acting Vice President for election strategy and Okada, who has closer relationships with anti-Ozawa groups, as the party's Secretary General, Hatoyama has tried to mediate between the two sides and keep them unified before the election. -------------- The Ozawa Group -------------- ¶8. (C) Acting Vice President Ichiro Ozawa leads the largest groups of roughly 50 members, 30 of whom are close-knit and active while 20 also belong to other groups. It includes former LDP members and the so called "Isshinkai" (Newly Elected Group),a group of young politicians whom Ozawa helped get elected. The members closest to Ozawa are Hirohisa Fuji, who just retired from the Diet, and Kenji Yamaoka. Other senior members include Hiroshi Nakai, who is known for his ultra-nationalistic views. The group also contains other right wing groups, such as the DPJ's Group to Study the Comfort Women Issue, The Truth About the Nanking Incident Group, and the Diet Group to Visit the Yasukuni Shrine. Members of the anti-Ozawa Maehara and Noda groups expect Ozawa to try to expand his group after the election. Rep. Koichiro Genba told Embassy Tokyo that an intra-party leadership tug-of-war after the election could weaken party unity, and that the DPJ Secretary General will therefore play an essential role in stabilizing a DPJ administration. -------------- The Kan Group -------------- ¶9. (C) The 35 confirmed members of Acting President Naoto Kan's "Kuni no Katachi Kenkyuu Kai" (Shape of the Nation Study Group) focus on grassroots political activities and the needs of the general public. Like Hatoyama, Kan tried to distance himself from Ozawa after Ozawa's botched attempt to form a grand coalition with the LDP. Kan also has certain differences with Ozawa over policies and party management style, and on a personal level the two do not necessarily get along. Now that Hatoyama heads the party and the DPJ appears well positioned to take power, Embassy media contacts report that Kan already is acting like Chief Cabinet Secretary. Whether or not he ultimately obtains that position, Kan likely will receive a senior Cabinet position in a Hatoyama cabinet. -------------- The Maehara and Noda Groups -------------- ¶10. (C) Former DPJ President and current Vice President Seiji Maehara's "Ryoun Kai" (High Spirited Group) and former DPJ TOKYO 00001812 003.2 OF 009 Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Yoshihiko Noda's "Kasei Kai" (Group of a Hundred Blossoms) share overlapping memberships and tend to act in concert. Maehara's group has 35 confirmed members while Noda's has 25 confirmed members. Both men graduated from the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, a private graduate school dedicated to producing future politicians and business leaders. They share similar conservative policy beliefs, for which they are criticized by DPJ liberals who call them "policy fundamentalists" and too conservative. ¶11. (C) Maehara and Noda are anti-Ozawa and have strongly criticized his behind-closed-door, old-school LDP political style, which they believe ultimately could threaten the party's existence. The two groups, however, lack unity and strong leadership, and therefore pose no real challenge to Ozawa. When the DPJ last selected its leadership, the Maehara and Noda groups tried to offer Noda as a candidate against Ozawa-backed Hatoyama. However, the indecisiveness of Noda and his supporters - who feared for their political futures should Noda's attempt fail - combined with insufficient support from the Maehara group, doomed the attempt. This failure caused a frustrated Representative, Sumio Mabuchi, to leave the Noda group and question its existence. As the two groups ended up backing then Vice President Katsuya Okada, who also had distanced himself from Ozawa, they see him as the successor of current party leader Hatoyama. -------------- The Okada Quasi-Group -------------- ¶12. (C) Although Secretary General Okada has no formal group of his own, he enjoys wide and growing support within the party. After the DPJ's major defeat in the 2005 Lower House election, Okada took responsibility and resigned as party president. He then visited the district of each failed candidate to urge them to continue their campaign activities. These trips earned him the reputation as the only senior member of the DPJ willing to campaign in country districts and at small events. Political contacts have told Embassy Tokyo that this campaigning helped Okada, once dubbed "Robocop" and "His Unlaughing Highness" for his extreme, impersonal seriousness, become more approachable and gain the trust of fellow party members. Media contacts have told Embassy Tokyo that Okada is trying to expand his support base in the party with an eye on post-Hatoyama party leadership. Like Hatoyama, Okada possesses the ability to mediate between dissenting voices within the party. He is known as a realist on security policy and enjoys the strong support of the Maehara and Noda groups, though he does not necessarily share their ideological orientation. -------------- The Yokomichi Group -------------- ¶13. (C) Former Speaker of the Lower House Takahiro Yokomichi leads a group of about 30 former Socialist Party Members called the "Shin Seikyoku Kondan Kai" (New Political Situation Discussion Group). The Yokomichi group commands a strong presence in the party because it controls the votes of a number of liberal labor unions - such as the Municipal Workers' Union and the Teachers' union - that played a pivotal role in the DPJ's landslide victory in the previous Upper House Election. Because these groups feature prominently in his strategy for the coming election as well, Ozawa has bought Yokomichi's support for compromises on security policy. Yokomichi heads the only DPJ group with a firm consensus not to revise Article 9 (the peace provision) of Japan's constitution. Instead, he supports a "U.N. Stand-by Force" concept that would allow more active participation by Japan in peacekeeping operations without constitutional revision. TOKYO 00001812 004.2 OF 009 -------------- The Kawabata Group -------------- ¶14. (C) Vice Presidents Tatsuo Kawabata leads the "Minshu Kyokai" (Association of Democratic Socialists),a group with 35 confirmed members, many of whom belonged to the now defunct Democratic Socialist Party. The Kawabata group also has strong ties to labor unions, especially the Confederation of Japanese Automobile Workers Union, the Federation of Electric Power Industry Workers Union, and the Federation of Textile, Chemical, Food, Commercial Services, and General Workers Union. Despite close union ties, the Kawabata group shares the Hatoyama group's conservatism. As he does with the Yokomichi group, Ozawa works closely with the Kawabata group to take advantage of the labor union vote. -------------- The Hata Group -------------- ¶15. (C) Former Prime Minister and DPJ Supreme Advisor Tsutomu Hata heads the "Seiken Senryaku Kenkyukai" (Regime Strategy Study Group),whose 20 members include many former members of the LDP's old Tanaka Faction, including DPJ Supreme Advisor Kozo Watanabe and Vice President Hajime Ishii. The conservative Hata group's members lack unity and overlap with the Hatoyama and Noda groups. A significant number of members also support Okada. As Hata has decided to retire after finishing his next term due to health problems, the group is not expected to last. -------------- Possible Intraparty Confusion -------------- ¶16. (C) Since becoming party president, Hatoyama has kept intra-party struggles hidden from public view. DPJ members are completely focused on winning August 30, and the immediate goal of political change has smoothed over any serious disagreements. If the DPJ actually wins, however, difficulties could emerge. One possible seed of trouble for a DPJ-led government is conflicting loyalties to Acting President Ozawa. Ozawa is a controversial figure because of his old-school political style and his failure to create a DPJ-LDP coalition. In addition, anti-Ozawa groups worry that Ozawa may try to expand his group after the Lower House election and try to wrest control of the regime. He did the same thing with the Hosokawa Cabinet in 1994, leading to the quick collapse of the only non-LDP government since the 1950s. -------------- List of Group Members -------------- ¶17. (C) Members of the Hatoyama Group (46 confirmed members) Lower House (24) Fujimura, Osamu (5th term) Fukuda, Akio (1) Goto, Hitoshi (2) Hatoyama, Yukio (7) Hirano, Hirofumi (4) Ishizeki, Takashi (1) Jinpu, Hideo (2) Kawauchi, Hiroshi (4) Koga, Issei (6) Kondo, Yosuke (2) Maki, Yoshio (3) Matsubara, Jin (3) Matsuki, Kenko (2) Matsuno, Yorihisa Mitsui, Wakio (3) TOKYO 00001812 005.2 OF 009 Morimoto, Tetsuo (1) Nakai, Hiroshi (10) Ogushi, Hiroshi (1) Ohata, Akihiro (6) Oshima, Atsushi (3) Ozawa, Sakihito (5) Sasaki, Ryuzo (3) Takayama, Satoshi (2) Watanabe, Shu (4) Upper House (22) Eda, Satsuki (3) Fujisue, Kenzo (1) Fujita, Yukihisa (1) Hironaka, Wakako (4) Ichikawa, Yasuo (1) Ishii, Hajime (1) Iwamoto, Tsukasa (2) Kazama, Naoki (1) Kobayashi, Masao (1) Masuko, Teruhiko (1) Muroi, Kunihiro (1) Odachi, Motoyuki (1) Oishi, Hisako (1) Oishi, Masamitsu (1) Okubo, Tsutomu (1) Shiba, Hirokazu (1) Shimada, Chiyako (1) Shimoda, Atsuko (1) Uematsu, Emiko (1) Yamane, Ryuji (2) Yanase, Susumi (2) Yonenaga, Harunobu (1) Members of the Ozawa Group (46 confirmed members) Lower House (33) Aisaka, Seiji (1) Ishikawa, Tomohiro (1) Ishizeki, Takashi (1) Jinpu, Hideo (2) Kikawada, Toru (3) Kikuta, Makiko (2) Kira, Shuji (2) Komiyama, Yasuko (2) Matsuki, Kenko (2) Mitani, Mitsuio (1) Mitsui, Wakio (3) Murai, Muneaki (2) Nagayasu, Takashi (2) Nakai, Hiroshi (10) Nakano, Hiriko (2) Okumura, Tenzo (2) Ota, Kazumi (1) Ozawa, Ichiro (13) Ryu, Hirofumi (2) Shina, Takeshi (1) Shinohara, Takashi (2) Sonoda, Yasuhiro (2) Suzuki, Katsumasa (2) Tajima, Kaname (2) Takemasa, Koichi (3) Tanabu, Masayo (2) Uchiyama, Akira (2) Washio, Eiichiro (1) Yamada, Masahiko (4) Yamaguchi, Tsuyoshi (1) Yamaoka, Kenji (4) Yokoyama, Hokuto (1) Yoshida, Izumi (2) Upper House (13) TOKYO 00001812 006.2 OF 009 Aoki, Ai (1) Funayama, Yasue (1) Hiroano, Tatsuo (2) Ichikawa, Yasuo (1) Ishii, Hajime (1) Kawakami, Yoshihiro (1) Koda, Kuniko (1) Kudo, Kentaro (1) Mori, Yuko (2) Muroi, Kunihiko (1) Nishioka, Takeo (2) Tanabu, Masami (2) Uematsu, Emiko (1) Members of the Kan Group (35 confirmed members) Lower House (20) Edano, Yukio (5) Doi, Ryuichi (6) Hiraoka, Hideo (3) Hosokawa, Ritsuo (6) Ikeda, Motohisa (5) Kan, Naoto (9) Kaneda, Seiichi (5) Kato, Koichi (3) Koga, Issei (6) Kori, Kazuko (1) Matsumoto, Ryu (6) Nagatsuma, Akira (3) Nishimura, Chinami (2) Shinora, Takasdhi (2) Suematsu, Yoshinori (4) Tajima, Kaname (2) Terada, Manabu (2) Tsumura, Keisuke (2) Tsutsui, Nobutaka (4) Yunoki, Michiyoshi (1) Upper House (15) Eda, Satsuki (3) Fujisue, Kenzo (1) Haku, Shinkun (1) Himei, Yumiko (1) Ienishi, Satoru (1) Kina, Shokichi (1) Konno, Azuma (1) Madoka, Yoriko (3) Matsuno, Nobuo (1) Naito, Masamitsu (2) Ogawa, Toshio (2) Okawara, Masako (1) Okazaki, Tomiko (3) Sakurai, Mitsuru (2) Tsurunen, Marutei (2) Members of the Maehara Group (35 confirmed members) Lower House (23) Azumi, Jun (4) Edano, Yukio (5) Furukawa, Motohisa (4) Genba, Koichiro (5) Hosono, Goshi (3) Izumi, Kenta (2) Jinpu, Hideo (2) Kitagami, Keiro (1) Komiyama, Yoko (3) Kondo, Shoichi (4) Mabuchi, Sumio (2) Maehara, Seiji (5) Nagashima, Akihisa (2) Nagayasu, Takashi (2) TOKYO 00001812 007.2 OF 009 Ogawa, Junya (1) Ryu, Hirofumi (2) Sengoku, Yoshito (5) Tajima, Issei (2) Takai, Miho (2) Tsumura, Keisuke (2) Watanabe, Shu (4) Yamanoi, Kazunori (3) Yokomitsu, Katsuhiko (5) Upper House (12) Fukuyama, Tetsuro (2) Haku, Shinkun (1) Makiyama, Hiroe (1) Matsui, Koji (2) Minezaki, Naoki (3) Nakamura, Tetsuji (1) Nakatani, Tomoji (1) Ogawa, Katsuya (3) Okubo, Tsutomu (1) Renho (1) Suzuki, Kan (2) Tokunaga, Hisashi (1) Members of the Noda Group (24 confirmed members) Lower House (18) Banno, Yutaka (3) Fujimura, Osamu (5) Furumoto, Shinichiro (2) Genba, Koichiro (5) Ishizeki, Takashi (1) Kitagami, Keiro (1) Kondo, Yusuke (2) Haraguchi, Kazuhiro (4) Ichimura, Koichiro (2) Matsumoto, Daisuke (2) Matsumoto, Takeaki (3) Mitani, Mitsuo (1) Nagashima, Akihisa (2) Noda, Yoshihiko (4) Ogushi, Hiroshi (1) Takai, Miho (2) Takemasa, Koichi (3) Yoshida, Izumi (2) Upper House (6) Fujimoto, Yuji (1) Nagahama, Hiroyuki (1) Oshima, Kusuo (1) Renho (1) Shimba, Kazuya (2) Umemura, Satoshi (1) Members of the Yokomichi Group (32 confirmed members) Lower House (12) Akamatsu, Hirotaka (6) Doi, Ryuichi (6) Hachiro, Yoshio (6) Hosokawa, Ritsuo (6) Ikeda, Motohisa (5) Kaneta, Seiichi (5) Kori, Kazuko (1) Matsumoto, Ryu (6) Sasaki, Takahiro (1) Tsutsui, Nobutaka (4) Yokomichi, Takahiro (9) Yokomitsu, Katsuhiko (5) Upper House (20) TOKYO 00001812 008.2 OF 009 Aihara, Kumiko (1) Chiba, Keio (4) Gunji, Akira (2) Kamimoto, Mieko (2) Kato, Toshiyuki (1) Kawai, Takanori (1) Koshiishi, Azuma (2) Matsuoka, Toru (1) Mizuoka, Shunichi (1) Naito, Masamitsu (2) Nataniya, Masayoshi (1) Okazaki, Tomiko (3) Sato, Taisuke (2) Takashima, Yoshimitsu (2) Takeuchi, Norio (1) Tani, Hiroyuki (2) Tomioka, Yukio (1) Tsuda, Yataro (1) Yamashita, Yasuo (2) Yoshikawa, Saori (1) Members of the Kawabata Group (35 confirmed members) Lower House (13) Banno, Yutaka (3) Furumoto, Shinichiro (2) Kawabata, Tatsuo (7) Kikuta, Makiko (2) Kodaira, Tadamasa (6) Maki, Yoshio (3) Matsubara, Jin (3) Mikazuki, Taizo (2) Morimoto, Tetsuo (1) Nakai, Hiroshi (10) Takagi, Yoshiaki (6) Takayama, Satoshi (2) Washio, Eiichiro (1) Upper House (22) Iwamoto, Tsukasa (2) Fujiwara, Masashi (2) Goto, Hitoshi (2) Hirata, Kenji (3) Ikeguchi, Shuji (2) Kagaya, Ken (1) Kato, Toshiyuki (1) Kawai, Takanori (1) Kimata, Yoshitake (2) Kobayashi, Masao (1) Mitsui, Wakio (1) Naoshima, Masayuki (3) Oishi, Hisako (1) Ooe, Yasuhiro (1) Shimada, Chiyako (1) Shimba, Kazuya (2) Tsuda, Yataro (1) Tsuji, Yasuhiro (2) Watanabe, Hideo (2) Yamane, Ryuji (2) Yanada, Minoru (2) Yanagisawa, Mitsuyoshi (1) Members of the Hata Group (19 confirmed members) Lower House (10) Goto, Hitoshi (2) Haraguchi, Kazuhiro (4) Hata, Tsutomu (13) Kusuda, Taizo (2) Nakagawa, Masaharu (4) Shimojo, Mitsu (2) TOKYO 00001812 009.2 OF 009 Sonoda, Yasuhiro (2) Tanabu, Masayo (2) Watanabe, Kozo (13) Yamaguchi, Tsuyoshi (1) Upper House (9) Hata, Yuichiro (3) Ishii, Hajime (1) Kaneko, Emi (1) Kawasaki, Minoru (1) Kitazawa, Toshimi (3) Maeda, Takeshi (1) Masuko, Teruhiko (1) Oishi, Masamitsu (1) Tanabu, Masami (2) ZUMWALT