DPJ SHOWS PRE-ELECTION AMBIGUITY TOWARDS THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001811 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/J E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL JA SUBJECT: DPJ SHOWS PRE-ELECTION AMBIGUITY TOWARDS THE UNITED STATES REF: A. TOKYO 1755 ¶B. TOKYO 1731 ¶C. TOKYO 1706 TOKYO 00001811 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: A/DCM RON POST, REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Media portrayals of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as pro-U.S. and the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) as less friendly to our interests are overly simplified. While DPJ politicians have been more vocal in questioning issues related to the U.S.-Japan Alliance than their LDP counterparts, domestic political considerations and the presence of DPJ leaders with American experience and favorable attitudes towards the United States make the reality more nuanced. The DPJ encompasses a wide spectrum of political ideologies and must unify its membership and possible partners under a common foreign policy agenda vis--vis the United States if it wins the general election on August 30. Recent statements from DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama calling for a more independent foreign policy, while attaching ""utmost importance to the U.S.-Japan alliance,"" typify the DPJ's current ambiguity on U.S.-Japan relations. However, Hatoyama clearly seeks to work quickly to build a ""relationship of trust"" with President Obama. END SUMMARY. -------------- RECENT DPJ POSITIONS ON U.S.-RELATED ISSUES -------------- ¶2. (C) As part of its campaign for ""political change,"" the DPJ has sought to differentiate its policies from those of the LDP, and DPJ leaders have made public statements that seem to indicate hesitation and ambivalence concerning various aspects of U.S.-Japan relations. Perhaps the broadest -- and least well understood -- pronouncement has been the DPJ's call for a more ""equal relationship"" between the two countries. President Hatoyama said Japan should be more independent from the United States, particularly in foreign policy and security issues. Although not anti-U.S. himself (Hatoyama has strong personal ties to the United States, including graduate work at Stanford, and is politically conservative),Hatoyama has to portray his party as one that will emphasize a foreign policy different from the LDP's as well as maintain his credibility with party members who harbor doubts about security cooperation with the United States. ¶3. (C) DPJ members have focused on a number of alliance initiatives as easy political targets for attacking the LDP-led government and its defense and security policies. Many have expressed displeasure about the Japanese government's commitment to finance parts of the bilateral plan to relocate U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam, both in terms of actual funding and the perceived lack of transparency and unwillingness to disclose detailed information by the Japanese government. They have also criticized the roadmap agreement for relocating Futenma Air Station to a replacement facility elsewhere in Okinawa. Finally, many DPJ members have criticized Japan's host nation support for maintaining U.S. forces, often citing as a problem the inadequate disclosure of information by the Japanese government, as well as the notion that Japan should not fund programs that focus more on the morale and welfare of U.S. personnel than on operational and capabilities aspects of the alliance. ¶4. (C) Without a majority in the Upper House and no guarantee that it will carry a majority on its own in the August 30 election, the DPJ also has to consider the stances of smaller parties including the Social Democratic Party (SDP),which in particular is ideologically opposed to various aspects of U.S.-Japan security cooperation. After DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada announced that the Indian Ocean refueling TOKYO 00001811 002.2 OF 003 mission by the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) would continue under a new DPJ administration, President Hatoyama was forced to respond to the SDP's strong opposition to Okada's statement by clarifying that although the mission would not be terminated immediately upon the DPJ's accession to power in September, it would not be renewed when it expires in January 2010. (Refs A and B). ¶5. (C) That said, as the Lower House election has drawn closer, and the prospects for a DPJ victory have grown increasingly favorable, the party has noticeably toned down its often strong rhetoric on a number of these issues. The absence of some of the DPJ's more anti-U.S. stances in its recently released ""manifesto"" (party platform),for example, indicates a shift to a more pragmatic line on alliance issues. ""This is a reflection of our party's realization that we actually might win and thus must make our policy positions more responsible,"" DPJ policy planning advisor Kiyoshi Sugawa told Embassy Tokyo August 6. -------------- BROAD RANGE OF VIEWS WITHIN THE DPJ -------------- ¶6. (C) Among the DPJ's foreign and security policy experts, there are a number of heavyweights who generally exhibit favorable attitudes towards the United States and the Alliance. Among them are Ichiro Ozawa (former DPJ President and current Acting Vice President in charge of election strategy),who throughout his career has been a friend of the Alliance but occasionally uses anti-U.S. foreign policy pronouncements to score domestic political points. Current DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama (Stanford alum), Secretary-General Katsuya Okada, and Vice President Seiji Maehara also have conservative backgrounds and generally espouse pro-Alliance lines. Other DPJ leaders who have close ties with and sympathies towards the United States include Akihisa Nagashima (DPJ Deputy Secretary-General, former Council of Foreign Relations Fellow, and SAIS alum),Shu Watanabe (DPJ Deputy Secretary-General, Columbia alumi), Yoshinori Suematsu (Chairman of the Lower House Committee on Youth Affairs, Princeton alum),Kazuya Shimba (Middle East expert, Oberlin alum),and Shinkun Haku (Shadow Vice Foreign Minister, former President of Chosun Ilbo Japan office, frequent official and personal travel to the U.S.). ¶7. (C) While not security and foreign policy experts, a number of DPJ leaders and up-and-coming members maintain favorable views of the Alliance and the United States, and are thus well positioned to help advance our goals behind the scenes. They include: Kenji Yamaoka (DPJ Diet Affairs Committee Chairman),Jun Azumi (DPJ Diet Affairs Committee Principal Deputy Chairman),Yukio Edano (former DPJ Policy Research Committee Chairman),Koichiro Genba (former DPJ Acting Secretary General),Yoshito Sengoku (former DPJ Policy Research Committee Chairman),Yoshihiko Noda (former DPJ Secretary General),Sakihito Ozawa (DPJ National Movement Committee Chairman),Yorihisa Matsuno (DPJ Shadow Vice Finance Minister),and Tetsuro Fukuyama (DPJ Upper House Policy Research Council Chairman). Yamaoka, Azumi, and Fukuyama are known for their ability to negotiate with the current LDP-New Komeito ruling coalition. Edano, Genba, Sengoku, and Noda all enjoy the confidence of DPJ Secretary General Okada. Ozawa (Sakihito) and Matsuno serve as key advisors to DPJ President Hatoyama and are also close contacts of Embassy Tokyo. ¶8. (C) Because of their sometimes antagonistic stances on some issues of importance to the U.S.-Japan alliance, some DPJ members are often seen as anti-U.S. However, the reality of their positions is more complex. For example, Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi (former DPJ Shadow Vice Foreign Minister) walks a fine line between being pro-U.S. on the one hand and strongly suspicious of U.S. policy and intentions on the other. A TOKYO 00001811 003.2 OF 003 former bureaucrat in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Yamaguchi served in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and London, where he met Ichiro Ozawa and decided to run for a Diet seat. Yamaguchi sees the current U.S.-Japan alliance as an unequal relationship between a ""big brother"" and ""little brother,"" and would like to see an expanded Japanese role. He has argued forcefully for revision of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the United States and Japan, as well as against the current plan for Futenma relocation. Other DPJ members in this grouping include Yoshio Hachiro (DPJ Shadow Foreign Minister) and Takahiro Yokomichi (former Lower House Vice Speaker),both former Socialist Party members who oppose overseas missions by the Japanese Self Defense Force (SDF). Hirotaka Akamatsu (Chairman of DPJ Election Strategy Headquarters),Seiichi Kaneta (DPJ Deputy Director General of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Organizations Bureau),and Katsuhiro Yokomitsu (former Social Democratic Party member who left the SDP in August 2005) are others who have spoken out against certain aspects of the Alliance. -------------- -------------- HATOYAMA WANTS CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Despite the range of stances within the DPJ towards U.S.-related issues, DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama and other party leaders have made it clear that a DPJ government would continue to value and work with the United States while striving to develop a ""more independent"" foreign policy for Japan. In a July 31 interview with domestic media, Hatoyama said, ""While we attach utmost importance to the Japan-U.S. alliance, it is necessary not to rely on the U.S. and develop a more independent foreign policy. A diplomatic posture of giving importance both to Asia and the U.S. is required. It is possible that we may seek an appropriate 'distance' in security."" This first part of Hatoyama's statement seemed to indicate a shift away from the United States in terms of security and foreign policy, but the conclusion of his remarks showed otherwise: ""The most important thing is how to build a relationship of trust with President Obama. Based on this relationship, we will gather information and conduct a comprehensive review. I have no intention to change the basic policy line."" Further supporting the DPJ leader's desire to engage with the United States, media reported August 1 that Hatoyama expressed his eagerness to attend UNGA and the Pittsburgh Summit. ""The DPJ sees these two events as good opportunities for Hatoyama to start building a personal and early relationship with President Obama,"" Sugawa told Embassy Tokyo. ZUMWALT