Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO1651
2009-07-22 00:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:
JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/22/09
VZCZCXRO3004 PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH DE RUEHKO #1651/01 2030016 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 220016Z JUL 09 FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4708 INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5// RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA// RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21// RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA RUAYJAA/CTF 72 RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 7695 RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5366 RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 9174 RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 2859 RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5883 RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0585 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 6608 RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6273
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 001651
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/22/09
Index:
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 001651
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/22/09
Index:
1) Top headlines
2) Editorials
3) Prime Minister's daily schedule (Nikkei)
Lower House election:
4) Campaign for the Lower House election begins, with Prime Minister
Aso giving priority to economy, DPJ head Hatoyama stressing change
of government (Nikkei)
5) LDP support at less than 20 PERCENT going into the election
campaign: FNN poll (Sankei)
6) Prime Minister Aso in announcing Diet dissolution expresses
self-reflection in a tearful voice (Tokyo Shimbun)
7) Political parties speeding up compilation of manifestos: LDP slow
to make adjustments due to internal disarray; DPJ steadily drafting
framework (Asahi)
8) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
to clash in election campaign on consumption tax, other issues
(Nikkei)
9) Aso, after tumultuous 10 months as prime min, trying now to
prolong his stay in office by even one day (Nikkei)
10) DPJ taking pains to maintain harmony with opposition parties in
the election campaign but concern that small parties may be buried
in the election (Yomiuri)
11) Altogether 1,235 candidates running in the Lower House race
(Nikkei)
12) LDP backing 287 candidates for single district seats (Asahi)
13) DPJ's victory with small margin might trigger political
realignment (Nikkei)
14) 114 bills were scrapped when Aso dissolved the Lower House
(Asahi)
15) After 2,029 days as Lower House speaker, Yohei Kono to retire
from politics (Nikkei)
16) Former Defense Minister Kawara to retire from politics
(Yomiuri)
17) Foreign Ministry's appointment of new counsellor of Cabinet
Secretariat a strategic move toward possible Hatoyama
administration? (Yomiuri)
18) Former Deputy Secretary Armitage in interview discusses
responses to North Korea (Nikkei)
19) Japan sending team of observers to monitor Afghanistan's
upcoming president election (Yomiuri)
20) Chinese ship withdraws from Shirakaba gas field in E. China Sea
(Mainichi)
Articles:
1) TOP HEADLINES
Asahi:
Japan's ruling, opposition parties launch scramble for power
Mainichi:
General election effectively starts
Yomiuri:
Voters to determine who should take the reins of government in Aug.
30 election
TOKYO 00001651 002 OF 014
Nikkei:
Economy, social security, securing fiscal resources key issues in
choosing new government
Sankei:
LDP meltdown - 2009 Lower House election (Part 1): Chances high for
LDP to become opposition party
Tokyo Shimbun:
Lower House dissolved; LDP aims for sense of security, DPJ
determined to topple LDP-New Komeito coalition
Akahata:
Lower House dissolved for Aug. 30 election; JCP determined to
realize politics of security and hope
2) EDITORIALS
Asahi:
(1) Lower House dissolved for general election that will determine
who should take the reins of government
Mainichi:
(1) Lower House dissolved; General election will choose an
administration
Yomiuri:
(1) Vote on policies rather than change for change's sake
Nikkei:
(1) Policy debates essential for choosing an administration
Sankei:
(1) Political parties must debate on the country's future course
Tokyo Shimbun:
(1) A change of government may result from Aug. 30 general election
Akahata:
(1) Chance has come to end LDP-New Komeito politics
3) Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei)
Prime Minister's schedule, July 20, 21
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
July 20
10:02 Took a walk around his official residence.
16:01 Met Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Asano at the Kantei.
19:04 Met at party headquarters with Secretary General Hosoda,
Policy Research Council Chairman Hori, Diet Affairs Committee
Chairman Oshima, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura and others. Joined
by Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Suga. Hosoda and Suga
stayed behind.
21:46 Returned to his official residence.
July 21
08:01 Attended a cabinet meeting at the Kantei. Later met Kawamura.
10:18 Met special advisor Shimamura, followed by Kawamura.
10:35 Met New Komeito President Ota and Secretary General Kitagawa,
TOKYO 00001651 003 OF 014
with Hosoda and Kawamura present.
11:32 Attended a meeting of lawmakers of both Houses of the Diet at
party headquarters.
12:12 Met former Prime Minister Mori, former Chief Cabinet Secretary
Machimura, Hosoda, and others.
12:51 Attended a meeting of lawmakers in the Diet Building.
13:02 Attended a Lower House plenary session. Later, called on Lower
House Speaker Kono and Vice Speaker Yokomichi, Upper House President
Eda and Vice President Santo, senior members of the New Komeito, and
others, with Kawamura and deputy chief cabinet secretaries Matsumoto
and Asano.
13:22 Attended a general rally of both Houses of the Diet.
14:02 Attended a special cabinet meeting at the Kantei.
14:37 Attended a meeting of the Election Strategy Council at party
headquarters. Former education minister Suzuki stayed behind.
Followed by Executive Council Chairman Sasagawa. Later, put up the
signboard of election headquarters in front of the gate.
15:08 Handed official recognition letters to candidates for the
Lower House election in the presence of Hosoda and others.
17:39 Met Kawamura
18:00 Held a press conference. Later met Kawamura.
19:21 Arrived at his official residence. Met with Kawamura,
Matsumoto and Asano.
4) Lower House election to offer choice of government, with economy,
social security, funding sources as campaign issues
NIKKEI (Top Play) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The House of Representatives was dissolved yesterday, opening a
battle between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) leading up to the 45th Lower House election.
The election will be officially announced on Aug. 18 and will be
held on the 30th. In a bid to maintain the ruling coalition of the
LDP and the New Komeito, Prime Minister Taro Aso has underscored the
government's ability to properly deal with foreign and security
affairs, with an eye on even a consumption tax hike after the
economy turns around as the financial source for social security
measures. Meanwhile, DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama plans to release
the party's policy manifesto by the end of this month and will
stress the need for a change of government. The 40-day battle was
kicked off.
The government endorsed the dissolution of the Lower House with
approval from all cabinet members at a regular cabinet meeting
yesterday morning. Speaker Yohei Kono read out an Imperial decree
proclaiming the dissolution at a Lower House plenary session in the
afternoon. After the Lower House was dissolved, the government
decided on the schedule for the election at a special cabinet
meeting in the afternoon.
The ruling and opposition parties have launched a substantial
election fight. The leaders of political parties will engage in a
verbal battle in the 40-day campaign. The 40 days from the
dissolution to the vote is the longest since the introduction of the
Constitution.
At the outset of a press conference held after the dissolution, Aso
apologized for his gaffes and lack of consistency on key policies,
saying: "They caused public distrust in the government. I deeply
reflect on them." He also apologized for the conflict caused in the
TOKYO 00001651 004 OF 014
LDP.
He then said:
"The upcoming Lower House election is an election to realize a
society where everyone can live worry-free. I would like to ask the
people to focus on our party's responsibility. If I fail to live up
on this promise, I will take responsibility. ...I will not walk off
my job as prime minister and party president before we place the
economy on a recovery track. I am determined to boost the economy
without fail."
He also said: "We will put an end to the current excessive
market-forces principle." He indicated his resolve to introduce
measures to make child education free of charge, improve the working
conditions for part-timers, and raise the consumption tax to finance
social security measures after the economy turns around. He
emphasized:
"Everyone hates tax hikes, but we cannot leave our debts for our
children and grandchildren. The DPJ has only opposed proposals made
by the LDP and the New Komeito to buoy up the economy, raise funds
to finance welfare measures, and to ensure Japan's national
security. ... The DPJ has just come up with pork-barrel measures
without talking about where necessary revenues will come from."
In the meanwhile, Hatoyama made the following remark in a press
conference yesterday:
"I am determined to introduce a politics joined by all the people in
place of the current bureaucracy-led politics that has lasted since
the Meiji era. We must bring about a change of government, with a
revolutionary major purpose. ... We will grab the reins of
government in cooperation with other opposition parties. Our goal is
to win a majority on our own or in cooperation with the opposition
parties."
He cited three major campaign issues - declining birthrate, pension,
and decentralization. He indicated that the party will announce its
policy manifesto for the election by the end of this month. He
emphasized: "We will take thorough measures to protect the people's
lives and livelihoods. With this as our buzzword, we would like to
engage in the election campaign."
5) Poll: LDP support falls below 20 PERCENT
SANKEI (Page 3) (Abridged)
July 22, 2009
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's public support rating fell
below 20 PERCENT in a telephone-based nationwide public opinion
survey conducted by Fuji News Network (FNN) on July 18-19. In the
FNN survey, the LDP's support rate was 19.8 PERCENT , down 0.3
points from the last survey taken June 20-21. Respondents were also
asked which political party they would vote for in their
proportional representation blocs of the House of Representatives in
its forthcoming general election. In this public preference of
political parties for proportional representation as well, the LDP
dropped 1.5 points to 23.7 PERCENT . Both figures reached a new low
under the Aso cabinet. In the public preference of political parties
for proportional representation, the leading opposition Democratic
Party of Japan (Minshuto) inched up to 46.0 PERCENT . The Aso
TOKYO 00001651 005 OF 014
cabinet also remains low in public support. Its public approval
rating was 15.9 PERCENT , down 1.6 points from the last survey.
Meanwhile, its disapproval rating also dropped 1.3 points to 71.4
PERCENT .
6) Tearful prime minister expresses "remorse" at meeting of LDP Diet
members; Humble attitude suppresses discontent
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
Akihiro Ikushima
At the meeting of Liberal Democratic Party members of both houses of
the Diet held before the plenary session of the House of
Representatives where its dissolution would be declared, Prime
Minister Taro Aso said: "My only wish is that all of you who plan to
run in the election will (get elected and) return to this place."
Aso's tearful words suppressed the discontent going into the
election campaign amid a raging adverse wind.
The prime minister, who abhors showing his weakness or being
criticized for "wavering," admitted his responsibility for the
successive defeats in the recent major local elections and expressed
his "remorse and apology." He took a humble attitude because he
wanted to show the party's unity at the dissolve the Diet with the
party manifesting its unity.
Aso takes pride in the fact that he was able to prevent the economy
from sinking deeper and deeper since he took office. Even after the
cabinet support rating dropped to a crisis level, his determination
to "seek the people's verdict for this administration's
achievements" remained unshaken, and he insisted on exercising his
power to dissolve the Diet.
However, the prime minister also understands that this election
campaign will be an uphill battle. His aides say that: "He is
anxious that his policies have not been conveyed properly to the
people and is not so self-assured about winning the election."
In his news conference announcing the dissolution of the Diet, Aso
did not define his criterion for victory in the general election. He
bristled at reporters' persistent questions on this and said: "Do
you think I can answer a question premised on losing the election
just like that? The election campaign has just begun."
Will the prime minister be able to fight off the adverse wind?
Toward the end of the news conference, he could only fall back on
his fighting spirit. He stated: "An election is where one does
everything in his power, works as hard as possible, and puts forth
all his strength."
7) Political parties speeding up compilation of manifestos: LDP slow
to make adjustments due to internal disarray; DPJ steadily drafting
framework
ASAHI (Page 5) (Abridged slightly)
July 22, 2009
Both ruling and opposition parties are speeding up efforts to draft
their manifestos in the run-up to the official announcement of a
general election on August 18. While the Liberal Democratic Party
TOKYO 00001651 006 OF 014
(LDP) is slow to make adjustments due to internal disarray following
its loss in the recent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is steadily making preparations by
drafting a framework for its manifesto.
The LDP's manifesto is called the Aso manifesto, for which a small
number of close aides to Prime Minister Aso, including Election
Committee Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga, have secretly drafted. The
party wants to complete internal procedures before the end of the
week at the earliest and have the prime minister release it at a
press conference by the end of the month. However, since the
drafting was not completed in time for the Diet dissolution, many
lawmakers will likely be left in the dark.
In an effort to continue its economic stimulus measures in the next
fiscal year and after, the LDP will highlight its track record and
the continuation of the stimulus measures. Some anti-Aso members are
indicating moves to enter the election with their own manifestos
that are different from the party's manifesto.
The New Komeito has by and large completed its internal discussions.
It will release an outline before the end of the week. Its
catchphrase is: "Protecting people's livelihoods. Politics is the
ability to get things done." As a policy that attaches importance to
the working people, it will pledge free children's education, a
revision to the high-priced medical treatment system, and an
improved pension system.
DPJ President Hatoyama during a press conference on the 21st
announced that his party would release its manifesto before the end
of July. As policies which it wants to stress in particular, it will
cite the low birthrate issue, the pension issue, and
decentralization.
Major pillars of the DPJ manifesto will be abolishing amakudari
(golden parachute) practices, eradicating wasteful spending of
budgetary funds, support for education including child allowances
and free high school education, restructuring the pension and
medical service systems, and implementing decentralization.
Since the DPJ does not view foreign affairs and security policies as
the focus of the upcoming election, its manifesto is unlikely to
include an overall picture of those policies and specifics.
8) LDP, DPJ at loggerheads over consumption tax
NIKKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly)
July 22, 2009
& Fiscal resources
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is at odds with the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) over the issue of securing fiscal resources.
The LDP plans to stress the need to raise the consumption tax rate
after the economy picks up to secure funding. The LDP's aim is to
depict itself as a party of responsibility by deliberately
mentioning the unpopular option of hiking a tax. If the LDP-New
Komeito coalition is maintained, a fundamental tax reform plan will
be implanted in line with a mid-term program which was endorsed by
the cabinet late last year. Meanwhile, the DPJ will seal off the
option of raising the consumption tax for at least four years.
Intending to squeeze out funding by reducing wasteful spending, the
TOKYO 00001651 007 OF 014
DPJ puts an emphasis on reducing the burden by, for instance,
abolishing the provisional gasoline tax rate. The Japanese Communist
Party (JCP),the Social Democratic Party (SDP),and the People's New
Party (PNP) also intend to maintain the current tax rates.
& Decentralization, administrative reform
With requests from local governments on the rise, the issue of
decentralization has begun drawing attention. The LDP-New Komeito
coalition's basic policy course is to promote a doshu (regional
bloc) system. The LDP is considering abolishing the share of local
governments in the costs of projects carried out by the central
government. The DPJ puts high priority on shifting power and fiscal
resources to basic autonomous bodies equivalent to municipalities.
The largest opposition party also intends to replace a tied subsidy
system with an untied lump-sum subsidy scheme. The JCP and the PNP
will promise greater tax grants.
As part of administrative reform, the DPJ will also call for the
abolition of the amakudari (golden parachuting) practice and a
review of independent administrative corporations and special
corporations. In terms of political reform, the DPJ advocates
prohibiting corporate and organizational donations in three years'
time. The LDP and the New Komeito stress the need to reduce the
number of Diet seats. The LDP plans to restrict hereditary
candidates in the election after the next.
& Foreign and security affairs
Policy toward the United States is expected to be a major point at
issue in the diplomatic and security fields. The LDP eyes
strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance and the New Komeito will call
for the steady promotion of U.S. force realignment. The DPJ plans to
consider revising the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement, while
placing high priority on the Japan-U.S. alliance. With the party
also intending to review the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling
mission in the Indian Ocean, the DPJ wants to have talks with the
United States.
The JCP and the SDP will play up their opposition to amending the
Constitution and the importance of peace and protecting the
Constitution. The PNP will call for a drastic review of the U.S.
force realignment program. The Japan Renaissance Party will
emphasize the need to have a system to defend the country from the
threat of North Korean missiles.
9) Prime minister vacillated over Diet dissolution for 10 months,
ends up dissolving at "worst timing," aiming only to prolong
administration
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The 351 votes Prime Minister Taro Aso won at the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) presidential election in September 2008 was based on the
assumption that the then relatively popular Aso would dissolve the
Diet at an early date. However, Aso postponed dissolution, citing
the financial crisis originating from the U.S. as his reason. This
caused an outburst of discontent in the party. Anti-Aso moves
smoldered beneath the surface and it appears that eventually, his
exercising the power of dissolution became an end in itself for
Aso.
TOKYO 00001651 008 OF 014
Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism Kazuyoshi
Kaneko points out: "There were a few junctures where dissolution
would ensure victory for us." The first opportunity was last
October, soon after the administration started. The cabinet support
rating was still around 50 percent.
In an article contributed to a monthly magazine, the prime minister
wrote, "My first mission is to seek the people's verdict," but the
financial crisis originating from the U.S. surfaced during the LDP
presidential election campaign. His feeling of responsibility that a
political vacuum should not be created amid economic turmoil came to
be intertwined with his desire to be the prime minister for as long
as possible.
Sensing the prime minister's vacillation, Election Strategy Council
Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga and his other close aides also advised
him to put off Diet dissolution. Aso announced at a news conference
on October 30 the postponement of dissolution.
Subsequently, cabinet support ratings dived due to the prime
minister's own gaffes, the scandal involving former Finance Minister
Shoichi Nakagawa, and other issues. While Aso was having difficulty
finding the right timing to dissolve the Diet, a second chance
suddenly presented itself as a result of the enemy's fault.
On March 3, (then) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro
Ozawa's government-paid principal secretary was arrested in
connection with the Nishimatsu Construction Company political
donation scandal. The Aso cabinet's support rate, then languishing
at the 10 percent level, enjoyed a rebound. The process of preparing
for Diet dissolution after the enactment of the fiscal 2009 budget
began. However, while the prime minister was still watching trends
in the LDP and DPJ approval ratings, Ozawa resigned as president on
May 11. Ironically, this gave the DPJ an opportunity to launch a
counteroffensive.
The last scenario drawn up by the Prime Minister's Official
Residence to stage a Diet dissolution initiated by Aso was "plunging
into Diet dissolution right after the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly
election and holding the election in early August." However, with
the LDP's crushing defeat in the Tokyo election, Aso was unable to
resist demands in the party to regroup and get it back on its feet.
He was forced to put off election day to August 30. Consequently,
"dissolution came at the worst timing." (Kaneko)
The only thing that the prime minister never wavered about was the
desire to dissolve the Diet with his own hands. At a news conference
on July 21, Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura showed his
support by saying: "He felt very strongly the responsibility of the
two previous prime ministers resigning successively. He was under
strong pressure to dissolve the Diet with his own hands." However, a
former LDP secretary general expresses his doubt: "Was this good for
the LDP?"
10) DPJ struggling to maintain joint struggle with other opposition
parties: SDP, PNP concerned about being shunted into background
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is struggling to maintain a
TOKYO 00001651 009 OF 014
joint struggle with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the
People's New Party (PNP) in Lower House election campaigns, the aim
being to later form a coalition administration with them. Voices
criticizing the DPJ have begun to be heard from among other
opposition parties, which are wary of that party becoming the
sole-winner. DPJ Secretary General Okada on an NHK TV program on
July 21 indicated the DPJ's stance of speeding up policy talks with
them with a three-party coalition government as a goal. He said, "We
want to form a coalition administration regardless of the numbers of
seats secured by them. If possible, we want to make policies in
common with those of the SDP and the PNP a major pillar."
The DPJ does not hold a single majority in the Upper House. As such,
even if it wins a landslide victory in the Lower House election, it
will not be able to manage its administration stably unless its
forms a coalition with the SDP or the PNP. For this reason, when it
coordinated candidates, it decided not to field its own candidates
in more than 20 of the 300 single-seat constituencies, giving in to
a request made by both parties. The DPJ will instead recommend
candidates running on the SDP or PNP ticket or non-affiliated
candidates in those 20 constituencies. In particular, it reached an
agreement with the PNP that it will encourage voters to choose the
PNP in the proportional representation section of the election in
return for fielding its own candidates in the Kanagawa No.1
Constituency and the Fukuoka No. 4 Constituency.
The SDP and the PNP are increasingly concerned about their identity
being shunted in the background of the DPJ.
SDP President Fukushima criticized the DPJ at a press briefing on
the 21st: "We will pursue an election battle, in which we will
appeal that not only the DPJ but also the SDP are needed to carry
out new politics. The DPJ has been inconsistent over the three
nonnuclear principles and (continuation of refueling operations in
accordance with) the New Antiterrorism Special Measures Law. It is
unstable and uncertain."
PNP Secretary General Hisaoki Kamei stressed his party's stance of
displaying its identity, noting, "We cannot accept the idea of two
major parties alone moving Japanese politics."
In the meantime, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) criticized the
DPJ, noting that it is in a situation in which it finds it
imperative to make concessions to other opposition parties.
Some participants in the informal meeting of members of both
chambers of the Diet checked the DPJ: "President Hatoyama
categorically said that the DPJ will team up with the SDP. Voters
are beginning to ask the possibility of a lawmaker (related to the
Japan Teachers' Union) becoming education minister."
11) Survey: 1,235 candidates to run for election
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The number of would-be candidates for the upcoming 45th House of
Representatives election is 1,235, exceeding the figure of 1,131
candidates in the previous general election in 2005, according to a
survey by the Nikkei as of July 21. According to the survey, 1,111
persons plan to run in the single-seat constituencies, while 124 are
expected to run in the proportional representation segment.
TOKYO 00001651 010 OF 014
12) LDP endorses 287 official candidates as first group for
single-seat constituencies, 22 for proportional representative
segment
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced a first group of 287
candidates to run in the 300 single-seat constituencies of the
upcoming House of Representatives election (on Aug. 30). The LDP
will hurriedly endorse candidates for the five districts of the
remaining 13 electoral districts, in which it has fielded no
candidates due to the candidates' sudden retirement from politics
and resignation from the party. In order to recommend candidates on
the New Komeito ticket, the LDP will not file any candidates in
eight districts, including the No. 12 district in Tokyo and No. 8
district in Hyogo Prefecture.
The LDP has yet to endorse candidates for the five districts,
including the No. 9 in Kanagawa Prefecture, in which Koichi
Yamauchi, one of the "Koizumi children" and a first-term lawmaker,
was expected to run but submitted a letter of resignation from the
LDP, and the No. 3 in Tochigi Prefecture, for which the party is
working on fielding an "assassin" candidate against Yoshimi
Watanabe, who left the LDP. Regarding a candidate for the No. 1
district in Aomori Prefecture, which was the home constituency of
Tax System Research Commission Chairman Yuji Tsushima, who announced
on July 19 his intention to retire from politics, Tsushima's eldest
son will likely apply to the LDP Aomori chapter's advertisement for
the candidacy.
The LDP also announced a first group of 22 candidates for the
proportional representation segment. The LDP has endorse Policy
Research Council Chairman Kosuke its official candidate for the No.
3 district in Saga Prefecture, the seat of which was held by Motoko
Hirotsu, who was an assassin in the 2005 Lower House election. The
LDP, however, forwent including Hirotsu in the first group of its
candidates for the proportional representation section.
13) DPJ's victory with small margin might trigger political
realignment
NIKKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly)
July 22, 2009
Even if the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) fails
to win a working majority but garners a majority when the seats won
by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People's New Party
(PNP) are combined in the House of Representatives, a DPJ-led
coalition government is likely to be launched.
Things would be complicated if seats were evenly split between the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the DPJ. It is possible that the
DPJ will not be able to garner a majority even by teaming up with
the SDP and the PNP, and the LDP-New Komeito coalition will also not
secure a majority. In such a case, both the LDP and DPJ are likely
to engage in a fierce battle to bring lawmakers into their camps,
thereby throwing the Diet into turmoil. Such might eventually result
in political realignment.
Both the SDP and the JCP have rejected the option of forming a
TOKYO 00001651 011 OF 014
coalition. But there still remains the option for the DPJ to form a
partial coalition by obtaining policy-specific cooperation from the
JCP.
14) 114 bills scrapped with Diet dissolution, 17 submitted by the
government, 97 by Diet members
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)
July 22, 2009
With the dissolution of the House of Representatives, the regular
Diet session adjourned on July 21. Seventeen bills submitted by the
government and 97 bills submitted by Diet members were scrapped. The
amendment to the organized crime punishment law, which includes the
new crime of "conspiracy" - a controversial issue during the Koizumi
and Abe administrations - has also been scrapped. Thirty-five bills
(including those submitted by Diet members),such as the bill
submitted by the government to amend the law on support for the
self-reliance of the disabled in order to review the disabled
people's payment of 10 percent of their medical and care service
bills, were not even taken up in the committees.
Of the government-submitted bills, seven bills that were newly
submitted to the current Diet session - including the special
measures law on cargo inspection for the purpose of sanctioning
North Korea and the bills related to civil service reform providing
for unifying the appointment of senior national government officials
- and 10 bills that were carried over from the previous session -
including the amendment to the temporary worker placement law to ban
day laborers, in principle - were scrapped. Out of the 69 bills
submitted by the government to this Diet session, 62, or 89.9
percent, were passed.
As to the bills submitted by Diet members, 62 from the House of
Representatives (including those carried over from the previous
session) and 35 from the House of Councillors (also including those
carried over from the previous session) were scrapped. Of the bills
submitted by the Democratic Party of Japan, 13 were passed by the
Upper House but were not deliberated in the Lower House. These
included an amendment to the Livelihood Protection Law meant to
revive additional welfare benefits for single mother families, a law
on transparency of the criminal investigation process, and a law to
make high school education free by paying subsidies to parents of
high school students.
15) House Speaker Kono retires with longest service record of 2029
days
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
July 22, 2009
The dissolution of the House of Representatives concluded the term
of Yohei Kono as the longest serving House speaker after holding the
post for 2,029 days. Last November, he became the longest serving
speaker, surpassing Ikuzo Ooka (1,785 days).
Kono assumed the post of House speaker in November 2003. He retired
from the political world after the Diet dissolution yesterday.
16) Former Defense Agency chief Kawara to retire from politics
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
TOKYO 00001651 012 OF 014
July 22, 2009
Tsutomu Kawara, a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) member and former
Defense Agency director general, yesterday revealed to the press
corps in the Diet building his intention to retire from politics,
not running in the forthcoming House of Representatives election. A
total of 25 lawmakers, including former Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi and Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono, have decided to retire
from politics or not to run in the upcoming general election.
17) Foreign Ministry's appointment of new counsellor of Cabinet
Secretariat a strategic move toward possible Hatoyama
administration?
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The Foreign Ministry announced that it had appointed on July 21
First North American Division Director Kanji Yamanouchi, 51, as
counsellor of the Cabinet Secretariat (assistant deputy chief
cabinet secretary).
Yamanouchi served as a secretary to then Deputy Chief Cabinet
Secretary Yukio Hatoyama, who is now president of the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ),in the cabinet of Prime Minister Morihiro
Hosokawa. He is regarded as most likely candidate for a secretary to
the prime minister if a Hatoyama administration is inaugurated in
the upcoming House of Representatives election.
Although the Foreign Ministry says that it was a regular personnel
assignment, there is this view: "The ministry has already begun
taking action with an eye on a change in government" (government
source).
18) N. Korea aiming to display unity under new leader: Armitage
NIKKEI (Page 8) (Full)
July 22, 2009
Tsuyoshi Sunohara, senior writer
North Korea, which has conducted nuclear and missile tests, is now
squaring off with the international community. What is North Korea
trying to achieve? The Nihon Keizai Shimbun interviewed former U.S.
Deputy Secretary of State Armitage, who was in charge of North
Korean affairs in the former Bush administration and is familiar
with the Obama administration's North Korea policy.
-- What is your view of the recent nuclear and missile tests carried
out by North Korea?
Armitage: North Korea probably intended to display unity under the
new leader. This new leader means Kim Jong Un (i.e., Kim Jong Il's
third son). U.S. Secretary of Defense Gates and others have also
said that a complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantling of
North Korea's nuclear weapons programs (CVID) is a common policy
goal of Japan and the United States. However, all the other
countries participating in the Six-Party Talks will have to wait for
resumption until North Korea's new regime figures out a new way of
dealing with this issue.
-- When you say "new regime," do you mean a new leadership under Kim
TOKYO 00001651 013 OF 014
Jong Un?
Armitage: I don't know whether the father-to-son transfer of power
will be successful. The son is young, and he holds a low rank in the
military committee. For the past two years, the military has had the
political initiative in North Korea. We cannot ignore this.
-- Do you think Kim Jong Un will be a puppet of the military?
Armitage: That is a possibility. (As a figure to seize real power)
Chang Sung Taek (i.e., Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law) is also a
potential candidate. He has a strong influence on the Korean Workers
Party, and he's a powerful man.
-- What about the possibility of North Korea launching a nuclear
attack on Japan?
Armitage: I don't think North Korea is thinking of committing
suicide. If they attack Tokyo, we will fight back immediately.
-- Former Defense Secretary Perry says North Korea has six nuclear
bombs.
Armitage: I think they have the necessary means to acquire six to
ten nuclear bombs. However, I don't think they have acquired that
many nuclear bombs yet. I don't think they have missile-loading
technology either.
-- Will the Obama administration take military action against North
Korea?
Armitage: The United States will not take military action for a
change of regime. If we learned with absolute conviction that we or
our allies were going to be attacked, then the United States would
not rule out preemptive action. But that's unlikely.
-- In Japan, there are also arguments calling for going nuclear.
Armitage: That's a negative step. However, I'm not negative about
Japan's option of having the capability of striking enemy bases. The
question is about (whether or not to have) ballistic missiles.
There's no need (for Japan's missiles) to reach Beijing.
19) Japan to send observers for Afghan presidential election
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
Keigo Sakai, Kabul
The Japanese government has decided to send an election-monitoring
team to Afghanistan for its presidential election set for Aug. 20.
Motohide Yoshikawa, special representative for assistance to
Afghanistan and Pakistan, now visiting the Afghan capital of Kabul,
revealed this decision. The government will send a total of more
than 10 observers to Afghan localities, including the midwestern
district of Chaghcharan, where Japan will send a provincial
reconstruction team (PRT),and also to Kabul. In 2004, Japan sent a
10-member team to Afghanistan to observe the presidential election.
Yoshikawa told Afghan President Karzai in a meeting yesterday that
holding a fair election would lead to Japan's continued assistance.
TOKYO 00001651 014 OF 014
20) Chinese vessels vacate Shirakaba gas field; Foreign Ministry
unable to verify drilling
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
It has been learned that Chinese vessels that were gathering near
the Shirakaba (Chunxiao in Chinese),which Tokyo and Beijing have
agreed to develop jointly, have left the waters near the site. A
senior Foreign Ministry official revealed this information on July
21. It appears that the ships left for China on the 15th. The
Chinese government explained that the ships were in the area to
conduct maintenance of the gas field. The Japanese government was
unable to observe any activities seen to be violations of the
bilateral agreement, such as drilling the gas field, according to a
senior government official. However, it will continue to monitor the
situation vigilantly.
Concerning the development of the Shirakaba gas field, which the
Chinese side had already started developing, Tokyo and Beijing
agreed to suspend the development last June until Japanese companies
begin participating in the project to jointly develop the gas field
and specific conditions for such issues as an investment ratio,
etc., are set. If drilling is confirmed, it means that the Chinese
side has violated the agreement. The Foreign Ministry has been
conveying strong concern to China since three Chinese vessels
arrived at the site on the 10th.
ZUMWALT
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/22/09
Index:
1) Top headlines
2) Editorials
3) Prime Minister's daily schedule (Nikkei)
Lower House election:
4) Campaign for the Lower House election begins, with Prime Minister
Aso giving priority to economy, DPJ head Hatoyama stressing change
of government (Nikkei)
5) LDP support at less than 20 PERCENT going into the election
campaign: FNN poll (Sankei)
6) Prime Minister Aso in announcing Diet dissolution expresses
self-reflection in a tearful voice (Tokyo Shimbun)
7) Political parties speeding up compilation of manifestos: LDP slow
to make adjustments due to internal disarray; DPJ steadily drafting
framework (Asahi)
8) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
to clash in election campaign on consumption tax, other issues
(Nikkei)
9) Aso, after tumultuous 10 months as prime min, trying now to
prolong his stay in office by even one day (Nikkei)
10) DPJ taking pains to maintain harmony with opposition parties in
the election campaign but concern that small parties may be buried
in the election (Yomiuri)
11) Altogether 1,235 candidates running in the Lower House race
(Nikkei)
12) LDP backing 287 candidates for single district seats (Asahi)
13) DPJ's victory with small margin might trigger political
realignment (Nikkei)
14) 114 bills were scrapped when Aso dissolved the Lower House
(Asahi)
15) After 2,029 days as Lower House speaker, Yohei Kono to retire
from politics (Nikkei)
16) Former Defense Minister Kawara to retire from politics
(Yomiuri)
17) Foreign Ministry's appointment of new counsellor of Cabinet
Secretariat a strategic move toward possible Hatoyama
administration? (Yomiuri)
18) Former Deputy Secretary Armitage in interview discusses
responses to North Korea (Nikkei)
19) Japan sending team of observers to monitor Afghanistan's
upcoming president election (Yomiuri)
20) Chinese ship withdraws from Shirakaba gas field in E. China Sea
(Mainichi)
Articles:
1) TOP HEADLINES
Asahi:
Japan's ruling, opposition parties launch scramble for power
Mainichi:
General election effectively starts
Yomiuri:
Voters to determine who should take the reins of government in Aug.
30 election
TOKYO 00001651 002 OF 014
Nikkei:
Economy, social security, securing fiscal resources key issues in
choosing new government
Sankei:
LDP meltdown - 2009 Lower House election (Part 1): Chances high for
LDP to become opposition party
Tokyo Shimbun:
Lower House dissolved; LDP aims for sense of security, DPJ
determined to topple LDP-New Komeito coalition
Akahata:
Lower House dissolved for Aug. 30 election; JCP determined to
realize politics of security and hope
2) EDITORIALS
Asahi:
(1) Lower House dissolved for general election that will determine
who should take the reins of government
Mainichi:
(1) Lower House dissolved; General election will choose an
administration
Yomiuri:
(1) Vote on policies rather than change for change's sake
Nikkei:
(1) Policy debates essential for choosing an administration
Sankei:
(1) Political parties must debate on the country's future course
Tokyo Shimbun:
(1) A change of government may result from Aug. 30 general election
Akahata:
(1) Chance has come to end LDP-New Komeito politics
3) Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei)
Prime Minister's schedule, July 20, 21
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
July 20
10:02 Took a walk around his official residence.
16:01 Met Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Asano at the Kantei.
19:04 Met at party headquarters with Secretary General Hosoda,
Policy Research Council Chairman Hori, Diet Affairs Committee
Chairman Oshima, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura and others. Joined
by Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Suga. Hosoda and Suga
stayed behind.
21:46 Returned to his official residence.
July 21
08:01 Attended a cabinet meeting at the Kantei. Later met Kawamura.
10:18 Met special advisor Shimamura, followed by Kawamura.
10:35 Met New Komeito President Ota and Secretary General Kitagawa,
TOKYO 00001651 003 OF 014
with Hosoda and Kawamura present.
11:32 Attended a meeting of lawmakers of both Houses of the Diet at
party headquarters.
12:12 Met former Prime Minister Mori, former Chief Cabinet Secretary
Machimura, Hosoda, and others.
12:51 Attended a meeting of lawmakers in the Diet Building.
13:02 Attended a Lower House plenary session. Later, called on Lower
House Speaker Kono and Vice Speaker Yokomichi, Upper House President
Eda and Vice President Santo, senior members of the New Komeito, and
others, with Kawamura and deputy chief cabinet secretaries Matsumoto
and Asano.
13:22 Attended a general rally of both Houses of the Diet.
14:02 Attended a special cabinet meeting at the Kantei.
14:37 Attended a meeting of the Election Strategy Council at party
headquarters. Former education minister Suzuki stayed behind.
Followed by Executive Council Chairman Sasagawa. Later, put up the
signboard of election headquarters in front of the gate.
15:08 Handed official recognition letters to candidates for the
Lower House election in the presence of Hosoda and others.
17:39 Met Kawamura
18:00 Held a press conference. Later met Kawamura.
19:21 Arrived at his official residence. Met with Kawamura,
Matsumoto and Asano.
4) Lower House election to offer choice of government, with economy,
social security, funding sources as campaign issues
NIKKEI (Top Play) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The House of Representatives was dissolved yesterday, opening a
battle between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) leading up to the 45th Lower House election.
The election will be officially announced on Aug. 18 and will be
held on the 30th. In a bid to maintain the ruling coalition of the
LDP and the New Komeito, Prime Minister Taro Aso has underscored the
government's ability to properly deal with foreign and security
affairs, with an eye on even a consumption tax hike after the
economy turns around as the financial source for social security
measures. Meanwhile, DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama plans to release
the party's policy manifesto by the end of this month and will
stress the need for a change of government. The 40-day battle was
kicked off.
The government endorsed the dissolution of the Lower House with
approval from all cabinet members at a regular cabinet meeting
yesterday morning. Speaker Yohei Kono read out an Imperial decree
proclaiming the dissolution at a Lower House plenary session in the
afternoon. After the Lower House was dissolved, the government
decided on the schedule for the election at a special cabinet
meeting in the afternoon.
The ruling and opposition parties have launched a substantial
election fight. The leaders of political parties will engage in a
verbal battle in the 40-day campaign. The 40 days from the
dissolution to the vote is the longest since the introduction of the
Constitution.
At the outset of a press conference held after the dissolution, Aso
apologized for his gaffes and lack of consistency on key policies,
saying: "They caused public distrust in the government. I deeply
reflect on them." He also apologized for the conflict caused in the
TOKYO 00001651 004 OF 014
LDP.
He then said:
"The upcoming Lower House election is an election to realize a
society where everyone can live worry-free. I would like to ask the
people to focus on our party's responsibility. If I fail to live up
on this promise, I will take responsibility. ...I will not walk off
my job as prime minister and party president before we place the
economy on a recovery track. I am determined to boost the economy
without fail."
He also said: "We will put an end to the current excessive
market-forces principle." He indicated his resolve to introduce
measures to make child education free of charge, improve the working
conditions for part-timers, and raise the consumption tax to finance
social security measures after the economy turns around. He
emphasized:
"Everyone hates tax hikes, but we cannot leave our debts for our
children and grandchildren. The DPJ has only opposed proposals made
by the LDP and the New Komeito to buoy up the economy, raise funds
to finance welfare measures, and to ensure Japan's national
security. ... The DPJ has just come up with pork-barrel measures
without talking about where necessary revenues will come from."
In the meanwhile, Hatoyama made the following remark in a press
conference yesterday:
"I am determined to introduce a politics joined by all the people in
place of the current bureaucracy-led politics that has lasted since
the Meiji era. We must bring about a change of government, with a
revolutionary major purpose. ... We will grab the reins of
government in cooperation with other opposition parties. Our goal is
to win a majority on our own or in cooperation with the opposition
parties."
He cited three major campaign issues - declining birthrate, pension,
and decentralization. He indicated that the party will announce its
policy manifesto for the election by the end of this month. He
emphasized: "We will take thorough measures to protect the people's
lives and livelihoods. With this as our buzzword, we would like to
engage in the election campaign."
5) Poll: LDP support falls below 20 PERCENT
SANKEI (Page 3) (Abridged)
July 22, 2009
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's public support rating fell
below 20 PERCENT in a telephone-based nationwide public opinion
survey conducted by Fuji News Network (FNN) on July 18-19. In the
FNN survey, the LDP's support rate was 19.8 PERCENT , down 0.3
points from the last survey taken June 20-21. Respondents were also
asked which political party they would vote for in their
proportional representation blocs of the House of Representatives in
its forthcoming general election. In this public preference of
political parties for proportional representation as well, the LDP
dropped 1.5 points to 23.7 PERCENT . Both figures reached a new low
under the Aso cabinet. In the public preference of political parties
for proportional representation, the leading opposition Democratic
Party of Japan (Minshuto) inched up to 46.0 PERCENT . The Aso
TOKYO 00001651 005 OF 014
cabinet also remains low in public support. Its public approval
rating was 15.9 PERCENT , down 1.6 points from the last survey.
Meanwhile, its disapproval rating also dropped 1.3 points to 71.4
PERCENT .
6) Tearful prime minister expresses "remorse" at meeting of LDP Diet
members; Humble attitude suppresses discontent
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
Akihiro Ikushima
At the meeting of Liberal Democratic Party members of both houses of
the Diet held before the plenary session of the House of
Representatives where its dissolution would be declared, Prime
Minister Taro Aso said: "My only wish is that all of you who plan to
run in the election will (get elected and) return to this place."
Aso's tearful words suppressed the discontent going into the
election campaign amid a raging adverse wind.
The prime minister, who abhors showing his weakness or being
criticized for "wavering," admitted his responsibility for the
successive defeats in the recent major local elections and expressed
his "remorse and apology." He took a humble attitude because he
wanted to show the party's unity at the dissolve the Diet with the
party manifesting its unity.
Aso takes pride in the fact that he was able to prevent the economy
from sinking deeper and deeper since he took office. Even after the
cabinet support rating dropped to a crisis level, his determination
to "seek the people's verdict for this administration's
achievements" remained unshaken, and he insisted on exercising his
power to dissolve the Diet.
However, the prime minister also understands that this election
campaign will be an uphill battle. His aides say that: "He is
anxious that his policies have not been conveyed properly to the
people and is not so self-assured about winning the election."
In his news conference announcing the dissolution of the Diet, Aso
did not define his criterion for victory in the general election. He
bristled at reporters' persistent questions on this and said: "Do
you think I can answer a question premised on losing the election
just like that? The election campaign has just begun."
Will the prime minister be able to fight off the adverse wind?
Toward the end of the news conference, he could only fall back on
his fighting spirit. He stated: "An election is where one does
everything in his power, works as hard as possible, and puts forth
all his strength."
7) Political parties speeding up compilation of manifestos: LDP slow
to make adjustments due to internal disarray; DPJ steadily drafting
framework
ASAHI (Page 5) (Abridged slightly)
July 22, 2009
Both ruling and opposition parties are speeding up efforts to draft
their manifestos in the run-up to the official announcement of a
general election on August 18. While the Liberal Democratic Party
TOKYO 00001651 006 OF 014
(LDP) is slow to make adjustments due to internal disarray following
its loss in the recent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is steadily making preparations by
drafting a framework for its manifesto.
The LDP's manifesto is called the Aso manifesto, for which a small
number of close aides to Prime Minister Aso, including Election
Committee Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga, have secretly drafted. The
party wants to complete internal procedures before the end of the
week at the earliest and have the prime minister release it at a
press conference by the end of the month. However, since the
drafting was not completed in time for the Diet dissolution, many
lawmakers will likely be left in the dark.
In an effort to continue its economic stimulus measures in the next
fiscal year and after, the LDP will highlight its track record and
the continuation of the stimulus measures. Some anti-Aso members are
indicating moves to enter the election with their own manifestos
that are different from the party's manifesto.
The New Komeito has by and large completed its internal discussions.
It will release an outline before the end of the week. Its
catchphrase is: "Protecting people's livelihoods. Politics is the
ability to get things done." As a policy that attaches importance to
the working people, it will pledge free children's education, a
revision to the high-priced medical treatment system, and an
improved pension system.
DPJ President Hatoyama during a press conference on the 21st
announced that his party would release its manifesto before the end
of July. As policies which it wants to stress in particular, it will
cite the low birthrate issue, the pension issue, and
decentralization.
Major pillars of the DPJ manifesto will be abolishing amakudari
(golden parachute) practices, eradicating wasteful spending of
budgetary funds, support for education including child allowances
and free high school education, restructuring the pension and
medical service systems, and implementing decentralization.
Since the DPJ does not view foreign affairs and security policies as
the focus of the upcoming election, its manifesto is unlikely to
include an overall picture of those policies and specifics.
8) LDP, DPJ at loggerheads over consumption tax
NIKKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly)
July 22, 2009
& Fiscal resources
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is at odds with the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) over the issue of securing fiscal resources.
The LDP plans to stress the need to raise the consumption tax rate
after the economy picks up to secure funding. The LDP's aim is to
depict itself as a party of responsibility by deliberately
mentioning the unpopular option of hiking a tax. If the LDP-New
Komeito coalition is maintained, a fundamental tax reform plan will
be implanted in line with a mid-term program which was endorsed by
the cabinet late last year. Meanwhile, the DPJ will seal off the
option of raising the consumption tax for at least four years.
Intending to squeeze out funding by reducing wasteful spending, the
TOKYO 00001651 007 OF 014
DPJ puts an emphasis on reducing the burden by, for instance,
abolishing the provisional gasoline tax rate. The Japanese Communist
Party (JCP),the Social Democratic Party (SDP),and the People's New
Party (PNP) also intend to maintain the current tax rates.
& Decentralization, administrative reform
With requests from local governments on the rise, the issue of
decentralization has begun drawing attention. The LDP-New Komeito
coalition's basic policy course is to promote a doshu (regional
bloc) system. The LDP is considering abolishing the share of local
governments in the costs of projects carried out by the central
government. The DPJ puts high priority on shifting power and fiscal
resources to basic autonomous bodies equivalent to municipalities.
The largest opposition party also intends to replace a tied subsidy
system with an untied lump-sum subsidy scheme. The JCP and the PNP
will promise greater tax grants.
As part of administrative reform, the DPJ will also call for the
abolition of the amakudari (golden parachuting) practice and a
review of independent administrative corporations and special
corporations. In terms of political reform, the DPJ advocates
prohibiting corporate and organizational donations in three years'
time. The LDP and the New Komeito stress the need to reduce the
number of Diet seats. The LDP plans to restrict hereditary
candidates in the election after the next.
& Foreign and security affairs
Policy toward the United States is expected to be a major point at
issue in the diplomatic and security fields. The LDP eyes
strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance and the New Komeito will call
for the steady promotion of U.S. force realignment. The DPJ plans to
consider revising the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement, while
placing high priority on the Japan-U.S. alliance. With the party
also intending to review the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling
mission in the Indian Ocean, the DPJ wants to have talks with the
United States.
The JCP and the SDP will play up their opposition to amending the
Constitution and the importance of peace and protecting the
Constitution. The PNP will call for a drastic review of the U.S.
force realignment program. The Japan Renaissance Party will
emphasize the need to have a system to defend the country from the
threat of North Korean missiles.
9) Prime minister vacillated over Diet dissolution for 10 months,
ends up dissolving at "worst timing," aiming only to prolong
administration
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The 351 votes Prime Minister Taro Aso won at the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) presidential election in September 2008 was based on the
assumption that the then relatively popular Aso would dissolve the
Diet at an early date. However, Aso postponed dissolution, citing
the financial crisis originating from the U.S. as his reason. This
caused an outburst of discontent in the party. Anti-Aso moves
smoldered beneath the surface and it appears that eventually, his
exercising the power of dissolution became an end in itself for
Aso.
TOKYO 00001651 008 OF 014
Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism Kazuyoshi
Kaneko points out: "There were a few junctures where dissolution
would ensure victory for us." The first opportunity was last
October, soon after the administration started. The cabinet support
rating was still around 50 percent.
In an article contributed to a monthly magazine, the prime minister
wrote, "My first mission is to seek the people's verdict," but the
financial crisis originating from the U.S. surfaced during the LDP
presidential election campaign. His feeling of responsibility that a
political vacuum should not be created amid economic turmoil came to
be intertwined with his desire to be the prime minister for as long
as possible.
Sensing the prime minister's vacillation, Election Strategy Council
Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga and his other close aides also advised
him to put off Diet dissolution. Aso announced at a news conference
on October 30 the postponement of dissolution.
Subsequently, cabinet support ratings dived due to the prime
minister's own gaffes, the scandal involving former Finance Minister
Shoichi Nakagawa, and other issues. While Aso was having difficulty
finding the right timing to dissolve the Diet, a second chance
suddenly presented itself as a result of the enemy's fault.
On March 3, (then) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro
Ozawa's government-paid principal secretary was arrested in
connection with the Nishimatsu Construction Company political
donation scandal. The Aso cabinet's support rate, then languishing
at the 10 percent level, enjoyed a rebound. The process of preparing
for Diet dissolution after the enactment of the fiscal 2009 budget
began. However, while the prime minister was still watching trends
in the LDP and DPJ approval ratings, Ozawa resigned as president on
May 11. Ironically, this gave the DPJ an opportunity to launch a
counteroffensive.
The last scenario drawn up by the Prime Minister's Official
Residence to stage a Diet dissolution initiated by Aso was "plunging
into Diet dissolution right after the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly
election and holding the election in early August." However, with
the LDP's crushing defeat in the Tokyo election, Aso was unable to
resist demands in the party to regroup and get it back on its feet.
He was forced to put off election day to August 30. Consequently,
"dissolution came at the worst timing." (Kaneko)
The only thing that the prime minister never wavered about was the
desire to dissolve the Diet with his own hands. At a news conference
on July 21, Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura showed his
support by saying: "He felt very strongly the responsibility of the
two previous prime ministers resigning successively. He was under
strong pressure to dissolve the Diet with his own hands." However, a
former LDP secretary general expresses his doubt: "Was this good for
the LDP?"
10) DPJ struggling to maintain joint struggle with other opposition
parties: SDP, PNP concerned about being shunted into background
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is struggling to maintain a
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joint struggle with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the
People's New Party (PNP) in Lower House election campaigns, the aim
being to later form a coalition administration with them. Voices
criticizing the DPJ have begun to be heard from among other
opposition parties, which are wary of that party becoming the
sole-winner. DPJ Secretary General Okada on an NHK TV program on
July 21 indicated the DPJ's stance of speeding up policy talks with
them with a three-party coalition government as a goal. He said, "We
want to form a coalition administration regardless of the numbers of
seats secured by them. If possible, we want to make policies in
common with those of the SDP and the PNP a major pillar."
The DPJ does not hold a single majority in the Upper House. As such,
even if it wins a landslide victory in the Lower House election, it
will not be able to manage its administration stably unless its
forms a coalition with the SDP or the PNP. For this reason, when it
coordinated candidates, it decided not to field its own candidates
in more than 20 of the 300 single-seat constituencies, giving in to
a request made by both parties. The DPJ will instead recommend
candidates running on the SDP or PNP ticket or non-affiliated
candidates in those 20 constituencies. In particular, it reached an
agreement with the PNP that it will encourage voters to choose the
PNP in the proportional representation section of the election in
return for fielding its own candidates in the Kanagawa No.1
Constituency and the Fukuoka No. 4 Constituency.
The SDP and the PNP are increasingly concerned about their identity
being shunted in the background of the DPJ.
SDP President Fukushima criticized the DPJ at a press briefing on
the 21st: "We will pursue an election battle, in which we will
appeal that not only the DPJ but also the SDP are needed to carry
out new politics. The DPJ has been inconsistent over the three
nonnuclear principles and (continuation of refueling operations in
accordance with) the New Antiterrorism Special Measures Law. It is
unstable and uncertain."
PNP Secretary General Hisaoki Kamei stressed his party's stance of
displaying its identity, noting, "We cannot accept the idea of two
major parties alone moving Japanese politics."
In the meantime, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) criticized the
DPJ, noting that it is in a situation in which it finds it
imperative to make concessions to other opposition parties.
Some participants in the informal meeting of members of both
chambers of the Diet checked the DPJ: "President Hatoyama
categorically said that the DPJ will team up with the SDP. Voters
are beginning to ask the possibility of a lawmaker (related to the
Japan Teachers' Union) becoming education minister."
11) Survey: 1,235 candidates to run for election
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The number of would-be candidates for the upcoming 45th House of
Representatives election is 1,235, exceeding the figure of 1,131
candidates in the previous general election in 2005, according to a
survey by the Nikkei as of July 21. According to the survey, 1,111
persons plan to run in the single-seat constituencies, while 124 are
expected to run in the proportional representation segment.
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12) LDP endorses 287 official candidates as first group for
single-seat constituencies, 22 for proportional representative
segment
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced a first group of 287
candidates to run in the 300 single-seat constituencies of the
upcoming House of Representatives election (on Aug. 30). The LDP
will hurriedly endorse candidates for the five districts of the
remaining 13 electoral districts, in which it has fielded no
candidates due to the candidates' sudden retirement from politics
and resignation from the party. In order to recommend candidates on
the New Komeito ticket, the LDP will not file any candidates in
eight districts, including the No. 12 district in Tokyo and No. 8
district in Hyogo Prefecture.
The LDP has yet to endorse candidates for the five districts,
including the No. 9 in Kanagawa Prefecture, in which Koichi
Yamauchi, one of the "Koizumi children" and a first-term lawmaker,
was expected to run but submitted a letter of resignation from the
LDP, and the No. 3 in Tochigi Prefecture, for which the party is
working on fielding an "assassin" candidate against Yoshimi
Watanabe, who left the LDP. Regarding a candidate for the No. 1
district in Aomori Prefecture, which was the home constituency of
Tax System Research Commission Chairman Yuji Tsushima, who announced
on July 19 his intention to retire from politics, Tsushima's eldest
son will likely apply to the LDP Aomori chapter's advertisement for
the candidacy.
The LDP also announced a first group of 22 candidates for the
proportional representation segment. The LDP has endorse Policy
Research Council Chairman Kosuke its official candidate for the No.
3 district in Saga Prefecture, the seat of which was held by Motoko
Hirotsu, who was an assassin in the 2005 Lower House election. The
LDP, however, forwent including Hirotsu in the first group of its
candidates for the proportional representation section.
13) DPJ's victory with small margin might trigger political
realignment
NIKKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly)
July 22, 2009
Even if the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) fails
to win a working majority but garners a majority when the seats won
by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People's New Party
(PNP) are combined in the House of Representatives, a DPJ-led
coalition government is likely to be launched.
Things would be complicated if seats were evenly split between the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the DPJ. It is possible that the
DPJ will not be able to garner a majority even by teaming up with
the SDP and the PNP, and the LDP-New Komeito coalition will also not
secure a majority. In such a case, both the LDP and DPJ are likely
to engage in a fierce battle to bring lawmakers into their camps,
thereby throwing the Diet into turmoil. Such might eventually result
in political realignment.
Both the SDP and the JCP have rejected the option of forming a
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coalition. But there still remains the option for the DPJ to form a
partial coalition by obtaining policy-specific cooperation from the
JCP.
14) 114 bills scrapped with Diet dissolution, 17 submitted by the
government, 97 by Diet members
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)
July 22, 2009
With the dissolution of the House of Representatives, the regular
Diet session adjourned on July 21. Seventeen bills submitted by the
government and 97 bills submitted by Diet members were scrapped. The
amendment to the organized crime punishment law, which includes the
new crime of "conspiracy" - a controversial issue during the Koizumi
and Abe administrations - has also been scrapped. Thirty-five bills
(including those submitted by Diet members),such as the bill
submitted by the government to amend the law on support for the
self-reliance of the disabled in order to review the disabled
people's payment of 10 percent of their medical and care service
bills, were not even taken up in the committees.
Of the government-submitted bills, seven bills that were newly
submitted to the current Diet session - including the special
measures law on cargo inspection for the purpose of sanctioning
North Korea and the bills related to civil service reform providing
for unifying the appointment of senior national government officials
- and 10 bills that were carried over from the previous session -
including the amendment to the temporary worker placement law to ban
day laborers, in principle - were scrapped. Out of the 69 bills
submitted by the government to this Diet session, 62, or 89.9
percent, were passed.
As to the bills submitted by Diet members, 62 from the House of
Representatives (including those carried over from the previous
session) and 35 from the House of Councillors (also including those
carried over from the previous session) were scrapped. Of the bills
submitted by the Democratic Party of Japan, 13 were passed by the
Upper House but were not deliberated in the Lower House. These
included an amendment to the Livelihood Protection Law meant to
revive additional welfare benefits for single mother families, a law
on transparency of the criminal investigation process, and a law to
make high school education free by paying subsidies to parents of
high school students.
15) House Speaker Kono retires with longest service record of 2029
days
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
July 22, 2009
The dissolution of the House of Representatives concluded the term
of Yohei Kono as the longest serving House speaker after holding the
post for 2,029 days. Last November, he became the longest serving
speaker, surpassing Ikuzo Ooka (1,785 days).
Kono assumed the post of House speaker in November 2003. He retired
from the political world after the Diet dissolution yesterday.
16) Former Defense Agency chief Kawara to retire from politics
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
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July 22, 2009
Tsutomu Kawara, a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) member and former
Defense Agency director general, yesterday revealed to the press
corps in the Diet building his intention to retire from politics,
not running in the forthcoming House of Representatives election. A
total of 25 lawmakers, including former Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi and Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono, have decided to retire
from politics or not to run in the upcoming general election.
17) Foreign Ministry's appointment of new counsellor of Cabinet
Secretariat a strategic move toward possible Hatoyama
administration?
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
July 22, 2009
The Foreign Ministry announced that it had appointed on July 21
First North American Division Director Kanji Yamanouchi, 51, as
counsellor of the Cabinet Secretariat (assistant deputy chief
cabinet secretary).
Yamanouchi served as a secretary to then Deputy Chief Cabinet
Secretary Yukio Hatoyama, who is now president of the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ),in the cabinet of Prime Minister Morihiro
Hosokawa. He is regarded as most likely candidate for a secretary to
the prime minister if a Hatoyama administration is inaugurated in
the upcoming House of Representatives election.
Although the Foreign Ministry says that it was a regular personnel
assignment, there is this view: "The ministry has already begun
taking action with an eye on a change in government" (government
source).
18) N. Korea aiming to display unity under new leader: Armitage
NIKKEI (Page 8) (Full)
July 22, 2009
Tsuyoshi Sunohara, senior writer
North Korea, which has conducted nuclear and missile tests, is now
squaring off with the international community. What is North Korea
trying to achieve? The Nihon Keizai Shimbun interviewed former U.S.
Deputy Secretary of State Armitage, who was in charge of North
Korean affairs in the former Bush administration and is familiar
with the Obama administration's North Korea policy.
-- What is your view of the recent nuclear and missile tests carried
out by North Korea?
Armitage: North Korea probably intended to display unity under the
new leader. This new leader means Kim Jong Un (i.e., Kim Jong Il's
third son). U.S. Secretary of Defense Gates and others have also
said that a complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantling of
North Korea's nuclear weapons programs (CVID) is a common policy
goal of Japan and the United States. However, all the other
countries participating in the Six-Party Talks will have to wait for
resumption until North Korea's new regime figures out a new way of
dealing with this issue.
-- When you say "new regime," do you mean a new leadership under Kim
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Jong Un?
Armitage: I don't know whether the father-to-son transfer of power
will be successful. The son is young, and he holds a low rank in the
military committee. For the past two years, the military has had the
political initiative in North Korea. We cannot ignore this.
-- Do you think Kim Jong Un will be a puppet of the military?
Armitage: That is a possibility. (As a figure to seize real power)
Chang Sung Taek (i.e., Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law) is also a
potential candidate. He has a strong influence on the Korean Workers
Party, and he's a powerful man.
-- What about the possibility of North Korea launching a nuclear
attack on Japan?
Armitage: I don't think North Korea is thinking of committing
suicide. If they attack Tokyo, we will fight back immediately.
-- Former Defense Secretary Perry says North Korea has six nuclear
bombs.
Armitage: I think they have the necessary means to acquire six to
ten nuclear bombs. However, I don't think they have acquired that
many nuclear bombs yet. I don't think they have missile-loading
technology either.
-- Will the Obama administration take military action against North
Korea?
Armitage: The United States will not take military action for a
change of regime. If we learned with absolute conviction that we or
our allies were going to be attacked, then the United States would
not rule out preemptive action. But that's unlikely.
-- In Japan, there are also arguments calling for going nuclear.
Armitage: That's a negative step. However, I'm not negative about
Japan's option of having the capability of striking enemy bases. The
question is about (whether or not to have) ballistic missiles.
There's no need (for Japan's missiles) to reach Beijing.
19) Japan to send observers for Afghan presidential election
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
Keigo Sakai, Kabul
The Japanese government has decided to send an election-monitoring
team to Afghanistan for its presidential election set for Aug. 20.
Motohide Yoshikawa, special representative for assistance to
Afghanistan and Pakistan, now visiting the Afghan capital of Kabul,
revealed this decision. The government will send a total of more
than 10 observers to Afghan localities, including the midwestern
district of Chaghcharan, where Japan will send a provincial
reconstruction team (PRT),and also to Kabul. In 2004, Japan sent a
10-member team to Afghanistan to observe the presidential election.
Yoshikawa told Afghan President Karzai in a meeting yesterday that
holding a fair election would lead to Japan's continued assistance.
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20) Chinese vessels vacate Shirakaba gas field; Foreign Ministry
unable to verify drilling
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full)
July 22, 2009
It has been learned that Chinese vessels that were gathering near
the Shirakaba (Chunxiao in Chinese),which Tokyo and Beijing have
agreed to develop jointly, have left the waters near the site. A
senior Foreign Ministry official revealed this information on July
21. It appears that the ships left for China on the 15th. The
Chinese government explained that the ships were in the area to
conduct maintenance of the gas field. The Japanese government was
unable to observe any activities seen to be violations of the
bilateral agreement, such as drilling the gas field, according to a
senior government official. However, it will continue to monitor the
situation vigilantly.
Concerning the development of the Shirakaba gas field, which the
Chinese side had already started developing, Tokyo and Beijing
agreed to suspend the development last June until Japanese companies
begin participating in the project to jointly develop the gas field
and specific conditions for such issues as an investment ratio,
etc., are set. If drilling is confirmed, it means that the Chinese
side has violated the agreement. The Foreign Ministry has been
conveying strong concern to China since three Chinese vessels
arrived at the site on the 10th.
ZUMWALT