Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO1651
2009-07-22 00:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/22/09

Tags:  OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 001651 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/22/09

Index:
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 001651 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/22/09 Index: 1) Top headlines 2) Editorials 3) Prime Minister's daily schedule (Nikkei) Lower House election: 4) Campaign for the Lower House election begins, with Prime Minister Aso giving priority to economy, DPJ head Hatoyama stressing change of government (Nikkei) 5) LDP support at less than 20 PERCENT going into the election campaign: FNN poll (Sankei) 6) Prime Minister Aso in announcing Diet dissolution expresses self-reflection in a tearful voice (Tokyo Shimbun) 7) Political parties speeding up compilation of manifestos: LDP slow to make adjustments due to internal disarray; DPJ steadily drafting framework (Asahi) 8) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to clash in election campaign on consumption tax, other issues (Nikkei) 9) Aso, after tumultuous 10 months as prime min, trying now to prolong his stay in office by even one day (Nikkei) 10) DPJ taking pains to maintain harmony with opposition parties in the election campaign but concern that small parties may be buried in the election (Yomiuri) 11) Altogether 1,235 candidates running in the Lower House race (Nikkei) 12) LDP backing 287 candidates for single district seats (Asahi) 13) DPJ's victory with small margin might trigger political realignment (Nikkei) 14) 114 bills were scrapped when Aso dissolved the Lower House (Asahi) 15) After 2,029 days as Lower House speaker, Yohei Kono to retire from politics (Nikkei) 16) Former Defense Minister Kawara to retire from politics (Yomiuri) 17) Foreign Ministry's appointment of new counsellor of Cabinet Secretariat a strategic move toward possible Hatoyama administration? (Yomiuri) 18) Former Deputy Secretary Armitage in interview discusses responses to North Korea (Nikkei) 19) Japan sending team of observers to monitor Afghanistan's upcoming president election (Yomiuri) 20) Chinese ship withdraws from Shirakaba gas field in E. China Sea (Mainichi) Articles: 1)
TOP HEADLINES Asahi: Japan's ruling, opposition parties launch scramble for power Mainichi: General election effectively starts Yomiuri: Voters to determine who should take the reins of government in Aug. 30 election TOKYO 00001651 002 OF 014 Nikkei: Economy, social security, securing fiscal resources key issues in choosing new government Sankei: LDP meltdown - 2009 Lower House election (Part 1): Chances high for LDP to become opposition party Tokyo Shimbun: Lower House dissolved; LDP aims for sense of security, DPJ determined to topple LDP-New Komeito coalition Akahata: Lower House dissolved for Aug. 30 election; JCP determined to realize politics of security and hope 2) EDITORIALS Asahi: (1) Lower House dissolved for general election that will determine who should take the reins of government Mainichi: (1) Lower House dissolved; General election will choose an administration Yomiuri: (1) Vote on policies rather than change for change's sake Nikkei: (1) Policy debates essential for choosing an administration Sankei: (1) Political parties must debate on the country's future course Tokyo Shimbun: (1) A change of government may result from Aug. 30 general election Akahata: (1) Chance has come to end LDP-New Komeito politics 3) Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) Prime Minister's schedule, July 20, 21 NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) July 22, 2009 July 20 10:02 Took a walk around his official residence. 16:01 Met Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Asano at the Kantei. 19:04 Met at party headquarters with Secretary General Hosoda, Policy Research Council Chairman Hori, Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Oshima, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura and others. Joined by Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Suga. Hosoda and Suga stayed behind. 21:46 Returned to his official residence. July 21 08:01 Attended a cabinet meeting at the Kantei. Later met Kawamura. 10:18 Met special advisor Shimamura, followed by Kawamura. 10:35 Met New Komeito President Ota and Secretary General Kitagawa, TOKYO 00001651 003 OF 014 with Hosoda and Kawamura present. 11:32 Attended a meeting of lawmakers of both Houses of the Diet at party headquarters. 12:12 Met former Prime Minister Mori, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura, Hosoda, and others. 12:51 Attended a meeting of lawmakers in the Diet Building. 13:02 Attended a Lower House plenary session. Later, called on Lower House Speaker Kono and Vice Speaker Yokomichi, Upper House President Eda and Vice President Santo, senior members of the New Komeito, and others, with Kawamura and deputy chief cabinet secretaries Matsumoto and Asano. 13:22 Attended a general rally of both Houses of the Diet. 14:02 Attended a special cabinet meeting at the Kantei. 14:37 Attended a meeting of the Election Strategy Council at party headquarters. Former education minister Suzuki stayed behind. Followed by Executive Council Chairman Sasagawa. Later, put up the signboard of election headquarters in front of the gate. 15:08 Handed official recognition letters to candidates for the Lower House election in the presence of Hosoda and others. 17:39 Met Kawamura 18:00 Held a press conference. Later met Kawamura. 19:21 Arrived at his official residence. Met with Kawamura, Matsumoto and Asano. 4) Lower House election to offer choice of government, with economy, social security, funding sources as campaign issues NIKKEI (Top Play) (Full) July 22, 2009 The House of Representatives was dissolved yesterday, opening a battle between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leading up to the 45th Lower House election. The election will be officially announced on Aug. 18 and will be held on the 30th. In a bid to maintain the ruling coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito, Prime Minister Taro Aso has underscored the government's ability to properly deal with foreign and security affairs, with an eye on even a consumption tax hike after the economy turns around as the financial source for social security measures. Meanwhile, DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama plans to release the party's policy manifesto by the end of this month and will stress the need for a change of government. The 40-day battle was kicked off. The government endorsed the dissolution of the Lower House with approval from all cabinet members at a regular cabinet meeting yesterday morning. Speaker Yohei Kono read out an Imperial decree proclaiming the dissolution at a Lower House plenary session in the afternoon. After the Lower House was dissolved, the government decided on the schedule for the election at a special cabinet meeting in the afternoon. The ruling and opposition parties have launched a substantial election fight. The leaders of political parties will engage in a verbal battle in the 40-day campaign. The 40 days from the dissolution to the vote is the longest since the introduction of the Constitution. At the outset of a press conference held after the dissolution, Aso apologized for his gaffes and lack of consistency on key policies, saying: "They caused public distrust in the government. I deeply reflect on them." He also apologized for the conflict caused in the TOKYO 00001651 004 OF 014 LDP. He then said: "The upcoming Lower House election is an election to realize a society where everyone can live worry-free. I would like to ask the people to focus on our party's responsibility. If I fail to live up on this promise, I will take responsibility. ...I will not walk off my job as prime minister and party president before we place the economy on a recovery track. I am determined to boost the economy without fail." He also said: "We will put an end to the current excessive market-forces principle." He indicated his resolve to introduce measures to make child education free of charge, improve the working conditions for part-timers, and raise the consumption tax to finance social security measures after the economy turns around. He emphasized: "Everyone hates tax hikes, but we cannot leave our debts for our children and grandchildren. The DPJ has only opposed proposals made by the LDP and the New Komeito to buoy up the economy, raise funds to finance welfare measures, and to ensure Japan's national security. ... The DPJ has just come up with pork-barrel measures without talking about where necessary revenues will come from." In the meanwhile, Hatoyama made the following remark in a press conference yesterday: "I am determined to introduce a politics joined by all the people in place of the current bureaucracy-led politics that has lasted since the Meiji era. We must bring about a change of government, with a revolutionary major purpose. ... We will grab the reins of government in cooperation with other opposition parties. Our goal is to win a majority on our own or in cooperation with the opposition parties." He cited three major campaign issues - declining birthrate, pension, and decentralization. He indicated that the party will announce its policy manifesto for the election by the end of this month. He emphasized: "We will take thorough measures to protect the people's lives and livelihoods. With this as our buzzword, we would like to engage in the election campaign." 5) Poll: LDP support falls below 20 PERCENT SANKEI (Page 3) (Abridged) July 22, 2009 The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's public support rating fell below 20 PERCENT in a telephone-based nationwide public opinion survey conducted by Fuji News Network (FNN) on July 18-19. In the FNN survey, the LDP's support rate was 19.8 PERCENT , down 0.3 points from the last survey taken June 20-21. Respondents were also asked which political party they would vote for in their proportional representation blocs of the House of Representatives in its forthcoming general election. In this public preference of political parties for proportional representation as well, the LDP dropped 1.5 points to 23.7 PERCENT . Both figures reached a new low under the Aso cabinet. In the public preference of political parties for proportional representation, the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) inched up to 46.0 PERCENT . The Aso TOKYO 00001651 005 OF 014 cabinet also remains low in public support. Its public approval rating was 15.9 PERCENT , down 1.6 points from the last survey. Meanwhile, its disapproval rating also dropped 1.3 points to 71.4 PERCENT . 6) Tearful prime minister expresses "remorse" at meeting of LDP Diet members; Humble attitude suppresses discontent TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) July 22, 2009 Akihiro Ikushima At the meeting of Liberal Democratic Party members of both houses of the Diet held before the plenary session of the House of Representatives where its dissolution would be declared, Prime Minister Taro Aso said: "My only wish is that all of you who plan to run in the election will (get elected and) return to this place." Aso's tearful words suppressed the discontent going into the election campaign amid a raging adverse wind. The prime minister, who abhors showing his weakness or being criticized for "wavering," admitted his responsibility for the successive defeats in the recent major local elections and expressed his "remorse and apology." He took a humble attitude because he wanted to show the party's unity at the dissolve the Diet with the party manifesting its unity. Aso takes pride in the fact that he was able to prevent the economy from sinking deeper and deeper since he took office. Even after the cabinet support rating dropped to a crisis level, his determination to "seek the people's verdict for this administration's achievements" remained unshaken, and he insisted on exercising his power to dissolve the Diet. However, the prime minister also understands that this election campaign will be an uphill battle. His aides say that: "He is anxious that his policies have not been conveyed properly to the people and is not so self-assured about winning the election." In his news conference announcing the dissolution of the Diet, Aso did not define his criterion for victory in the general election. He bristled at reporters' persistent questions on this and said: "Do you think I can answer a question premised on losing the election just like that? The election campaign has just begun." Will the prime minister be able to fight off the adverse wind? Toward the end of the news conference, he could only fall back on his fighting spirit. He stated: "An election is where one does everything in his power, works as hard as possible, and puts forth all his strength." 7) Political parties speeding up compilation of manifestos: LDP slow to make adjustments due to internal disarray; DPJ steadily drafting framework ASAHI (Page 5) (Abridged slightly) July 22, 2009 Both ruling and opposition parties are speeding up efforts to draft their manifestos in the run-up to the official announcement of a general election on August 18. While the Liberal Democratic Party TOKYO 00001651 006 OF 014 (LDP) is slow to make adjustments due to internal disarray following its loss in the recent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is steadily making preparations by drafting a framework for its manifesto. The LDP's manifesto is called the Aso manifesto, for which a small number of close aides to Prime Minister Aso, including Election Committee Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga, have secretly drafted. The party wants to complete internal procedures before the end of the week at the earliest and have the prime minister release it at a press conference by the end of the month. However, since the drafting was not completed in time for the Diet dissolution, many lawmakers will likely be left in the dark. In an effort to continue its economic stimulus measures in the next fiscal year and after, the LDP will highlight its track record and the continuation of the stimulus measures. Some anti-Aso members are indicating moves to enter the election with their own manifestos that are different from the party's manifesto. The New Komeito has by and large completed its internal discussions. It will release an outline before the end of the week. Its catchphrase is: "Protecting people's livelihoods. Politics is the ability to get things done." As a policy that attaches importance to the working people, it will pledge free children's education, a revision to the high-priced medical treatment system, and an improved pension system. DPJ President Hatoyama during a press conference on the 21st announced that his party would release its manifesto before the end of July. As policies which it wants to stress in particular, it will cite the low birthrate issue, the pension issue, and decentralization. Major pillars of the DPJ manifesto will be abolishing amakudari (golden parachute) practices, eradicating wasteful spending of budgetary funds, support for education including child allowances and free high school education, restructuring the pension and medical service systems, and implementing decentralization. Since the DPJ does not view foreign affairs and security policies as the focus of the upcoming election, its manifesto is unlikely to include an overall picture of those policies and specifics. 8) LDP, DPJ at loggerheads over consumption tax NIKKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) July 22, 2009 & Fiscal resources The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is at odds with the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) over the issue of securing fiscal resources. The LDP plans to stress the need to raise the consumption tax rate after the economy picks up to secure funding. The LDP's aim is to depict itself as a party of responsibility by deliberately mentioning the unpopular option of hiking a tax. If the LDP-New Komeito coalition is maintained, a fundamental tax reform plan will be implanted in line with a mid-term program which was endorsed by the cabinet late last year. Meanwhile, the DPJ will seal off the option of raising the consumption tax for at least four years. Intending to squeeze out funding by reducing wasteful spending, the TOKYO 00001651 007 OF 014 DPJ puts an emphasis on reducing the burden by, for instance, abolishing the provisional gasoline tax rate. The Japanese Communist Party (JCP),the Social Democratic Party (SDP),and the People's New Party (PNP) also intend to maintain the current tax rates. & Decentralization, administrative reform With requests from local governments on the rise, the issue of decentralization has begun drawing attention. The LDP-New Komeito coalition's basic policy course is to promote a doshu (regional bloc) system. The LDP is considering abolishing the share of local governments in the costs of projects carried out by the central government. The DPJ puts high priority on shifting power and fiscal resources to basic autonomous bodies equivalent to municipalities. The largest opposition party also intends to replace a tied subsidy system with an untied lump-sum subsidy scheme. The JCP and the PNP will promise greater tax grants. As part of administrative reform, the DPJ will also call for the abolition of the amakudari (golden parachuting) practice and a review of independent administrative corporations and special corporations. In terms of political reform, the DPJ advocates prohibiting corporate and organizational donations in three years' time. The LDP and the New Komeito stress the need to reduce the number of Diet seats. The LDP plans to restrict hereditary candidates in the election after the next. & Foreign and security affairs Policy toward the United States is expected to be a major point at issue in the diplomatic and security fields. The LDP eyes strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance and the New Komeito will call for the steady promotion of U.S. force realignment. The DPJ plans to consider revising the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement, while placing high priority on the Japan-U.S. alliance. With the party also intending to review the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, the DPJ wants to have talks with the United States. The JCP and the SDP will play up their opposition to amending the Constitution and the importance of peace and protecting the Constitution. The PNP will call for a drastic review of the U.S. force realignment program. The Japan Renaissance Party will emphasize the need to have a system to defend the country from the threat of North Korean missiles. 9) Prime minister vacillated over Diet dissolution for 10 months, ends up dissolving at "worst timing," aiming only to prolong administration NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) July 22, 2009 The 351 votes Prime Minister Taro Aso won at the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election in September 2008 was based on the assumption that the then relatively popular Aso would dissolve the Diet at an early date. However, Aso postponed dissolution, citing the financial crisis originating from the U.S. as his reason. This caused an outburst of discontent in the party. Anti-Aso moves smoldered beneath the surface and it appears that eventually, his exercising the power of dissolution became an end in itself for Aso. TOKYO 00001651 008 OF 014 Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism Kazuyoshi Kaneko points out: "There were a few junctures where dissolution would ensure victory for us." The first opportunity was last October, soon after the administration started. The cabinet support rating was still around 50 percent. In an article contributed to a monthly magazine, the prime minister wrote, "My first mission is to seek the people's verdict," but the financial crisis originating from the U.S. surfaced during the LDP presidential election campaign. His feeling of responsibility that a political vacuum should not be created amid economic turmoil came to be intertwined with his desire to be the prime minister for as long as possible. Sensing the prime minister's vacillation, Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga and his other close aides also advised him to put off Diet dissolution. Aso announced at a news conference on October 30 the postponement of dissolution. Subsequently, cabinet support ratings dived due to the prime minister's own gaffes, the scandal involving former Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, and other issues. While Aso was having difficulty finding the right timing to dissolve the Diet, a second chance suddenly presented itself as a result of the enemy's fault. On March 3, (then) Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro Ozawa's government-paid principal secretary was arrested in connection with the Nishimatsu Construction Company political donation scandal. The Aso cabinet's support rate, then languishing at the 10 percent level, enjoyed a rebound. The process of preparing for Diet dissolution after the enactment of the fiscal 2009 budget began. However, while the prime minister was still watching trends in the LDP and DPJ approval ratings, Ozawa resigned as president on May 11. Ironically, this gave the DPJ an opportunity to launch a counteroffensive. The last scenario drawn up by the Prime Minister's Official Residence to stage a Diet dissolution initiated by Aso was "plunging into Diet dissolution right after the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election and holding the election in early August." However, with the LDP's crushing defeat in the Tokyo election, Aso was unable to resist demands in the party to regroup and get it back on its feet. He was forced to put off election day to August 30. Consequently, "dissolution came at the worst timing." (Kaneko) The only thing that the prime minister never wavered about was the desire to dissolve the Diet with his own hands. At a news conference on July 21, Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura showed his support by saying: "He felt very strongly the responsibility of the two previous prime ministers resigning successively. He was under strong pressure to dissolve the Diet with his own hands." However, a former LDP secretary general expresses his doubt: "Was this good for the LDP?" 10) DPJ struggling to maintain joint struggle with other opposition parties: SDP, PNP concerned about being shunted into background YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) July 22, 2009 The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is struggling to maintain a TOKYO 00001651 009 OF 014 joint struggle with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People's New Party (PNP) in Lower House election campaigns, the aim being to later form a coalition administration with them. Voices criticizing the DPJ have begun to be heard from among other opposition parties, which are wary of that party becoming the sole-winner. DPJ Secretary General Okada on an NHK TV program on July 21 indicated the DPJ's stance of speeding up policy talks with them with a three-party coalition government as a goal. He said, "We want to form a coalition administration regardless of the numbers of seats secured by them. If possible, we want to make policies in common with those of the SDP and the PNP a major pillar." The DPJ does not hold a single majority in the Upper House. As such, even if it wins a landslide victory in the Lower House election, it will not be able to manage its administration stably unless its forms a coalition with the SDP or the PNP. For this reason, when it coordinated candidates, it decided not to field its own candidates in more than 20 of the 300 single-seat constituencies, giving in to a request made by both parties. The DPJ will instead recommend candidates running on the SDP or PNP ticket or non-affiliated candidates in those 20 constituencies. In particular, it reached an agreement with the PNP that it will encourage voters to choose the PNP in the proportional representation section of the election in return for fielding its own candidates in the Kanagawa No.1 Constituency and the Fukuoka No. 4 Constituency. The SDP and the PNP are increasingly concerned about their identity being shunted in the background of the DPJ. SDP President Fukushima criticized the DPJ at a press briefing on the 21st: "We will pursue an election battle, in which we will appeal that not only the DPJ but also the SDP are needed to carry out new politics. The DPJ has been inconsistent over the three nonnuclear principles and (continuation of refueling operations in accordance with) the New Antiterrorism Special Measures Law. It is unstable and uncertain." PNP Secretary General Hisaoki Kamei stressed his party's stance of displaying its identity, noting, "We cannot accept the idea of two major parties alone moving Japanese politics." In the meantime, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) criticized the DPJ, noting that it is in a situation in which it finds it imperative to make concessions to other opposition parties. Some participants in the informal meeting of members of both chambers of the Diet checked the DPJ: "President Hatoyama categorically said that the DPJ will team up with the SDP. Voters are beginning to ask the possibility of a lawmaker (related to the Japan Teachers' Union) becoming education minister." 11) Survey: 1,235 candidates to run for election NIKKEI (Page 1) (Full) July 22, 2009 The number of would-be candidates for the upcoming 45th House of Representatives election is 1,235, exceeding the figure of 1,131 candidates in the previous general election in 2005, according to a survey by the Nikkei as of July 21. According to the survey, 1,111 persons plan to run in the single-seat constituencies, while 124 are expected to run in the proportional representation segment. TOKYO 00001651 010 OF 014 12) LDP endorses 287 official candidates as first group for single-seat constituencies, 22 for proportional representative segment ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) July 22, 2009 The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced a first group of 287 candidates to run in the 300 single-seat constituencies of the upcoming House of Representatives election (on Aug. 30). The LDP will hurriedly endorse candidates for the five districts of the remaining 13 electoral districts, in which it has fielded no candidates due to the candidates' sudden retirement from politics and resignation from the party. In order to recommend candidates on the New Komeito ticket, the LDP will not file any candidates in eight districts, including the No. 12 district in Tokyo and No. 8 district in Hyogo Prefecture. The LDP has yet to endorse candidates for the five districts, including the No. 9 in Kanagawa Prefecture, in which Koichi Yamauchi, one of the "Koizumi children" and a first-term lawmaker, was expected to run but submitted a letter of resignation from the LDP, and the No. 3 in Tochigi Prefecture, for which the party is working on fielding an "assassin" candidate against Yoshimi Watanabe, who left the LDP. Regarding a candidate for the No. 1 district in Aomori Prefecture, which was the home constituency of Tax System Research Commission Chairman Yuji Tsushima, who announced on July 19 his intention to retire from politics, Tsushima's eldest son will likely apply to the LDP Aomori chapter's advertisement for the candidacy. The LDP also announced a first group of 22 candidates for the proportional representation segment. The LDP has endorse Policy Research Council Chairman Kosuke its official candidate for the No. 3 district in Saga Prefecture, the seat of which was held by Motoko Hirotsu, who was an assassin in the 2005 Lower House election. The LDP, however, forwent including Hirotsu in the first group of its candidates for the proportional representation section. 13) DPJ's victory with small margin might trigger political realignment NIKKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) July 22, 2009 Even if the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) fails to win a working majority but garners a majority when the seats won by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People's New Party (PNP) are combined in the House of Representatives, a DPJ-led coalition government is likely to be launched. Things would be complicated if seats were evenly split between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the DPJ. It is possible that the DPJ will not be able to garner a majority even by teaming up with the SDP and the PNP, and the LDP-New Komeito coalition will also not secure a majority. In such a case, both the LDP and DPJ are likely to engage in a fierce battle to bring lawmakers into their camps, thereby throwing the Diet into turmoil. Such might eventually result in political realignment. Both the SDP and the JCP have rejected the option of forming a TOKYO 00001651 011 OF 014 coalition. But there still remains the option for the DPJ to form a partial coalition by obtaining policy-specific cooperation from the JCP. 14) 114 bills scrapped with Diet dissolution, 17 submitted by the government, 97 by Diet members ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) July 22, 2009 With the dissolution of the House of Representatives, the regular Diet session adjourned on July 21. Seventeen bills submitted by the government and 97 bills submitted by Diet members were scrapped. The amendment to the organized crime punishment law, which includes the new crime of "conspiracy" - a controversial issue during the Koizumi and Abe administrations - has also been scrapped. Thirty-five bills (including those submitted by Diet members),such as the bill submitted by the government to amend the law on support for the self-reliance of the disabled in order to review the disabled people's payment of 10 percent of their medical and care service bills, were not even taken up in the committees. Of the government-submitted bills, seven bills that were newly submitted to the current Diet session - including the special measures law on cargo inspection for the purpose of sanctioning North Korea and the bills related to civil service reform providing for unifying the appointment of senior national government officials - and 10 bills that were carried over from the previous session - including the amendment to the temporary worker placement law to ban day laborers, in principle - were scrapped. Out of the 69 bills submitted by the government to this Diet session, 62, or 89.9 percent, were passed. As to the bills submitted by Diet members, 62 from the House of Representatives (including those carried over from the previous session) and 35 from the House of Councillors (also including those carried over from the previous session) were scrapped. Of the bills submitted by the Democratic Party of Japan, 13 were passed by the Upper House but were not deliberated in the Lower House. These included an amendment to the Livelihood Protection Law meant to revive additional welfare benefits for single mother families, a law on transparency of the criminal investigation process, and a law to make high school education free by paying subsidies to parents of high school students. 15) House Speaker Kono retires with longest service record of 2029 days NIKKEI (Page 2) (Excerpts) July 22, 2009 The dissolution of the House of Representatives concluded the term of Yohei Kono as the longest serving House speaker after holding the post for 2,029 days. Last November, he became the longest serving speaker, surpassing Ikuzo Ooka (1,785 days). Kono assumed the post of House speaker in November 2003. He retired from the political world after the Diet dissolution yesterday. 16) Former Defense Agency chief Kawara to retire from politics YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) TOKYO 00001651 012 OF 014 July 22, 2009 Tsutomu Kawara, a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) member and former Defense Agency director general, yesterday revealed to the press corps in the Diet building his intention to retire from politics, not running in the forthcoming House of Representatives election. A total of 25 lawmakers, including former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono, have decided to retire from politics or not to run in the upcoming general election. 17) Foreign Ministry's appointment of new counsellor of Cabinet Secretariat a strategic move toward possible Hatoyama administration? YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) July 22, 2009 The Foreign Ministry announced that it had appointed on July 21 First North American Division Director Kanji Yamanouchi, 51, as counsellor of the Cabinet Secretariat (assistant deputy chief cabinet secretary). Yamanouchi served as a secretary to then Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Hatoyama, who is now president of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),in the cabinet of Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa. He is regarded as most likely candidate for a secretary to the prime minister if a Hatoyama administration is inaugurated in the upcoming House of Representatives election. Although the Foreign Ministry says that it was a regular personnel assignment, there is this view: "The ministry has already begun taking action with an eye on a change in government" (government source). 18) N. Korea aiming to display unity under new leader: Armitage NIKKEI (Page 8) (Full) July 22, 2009 Tsuyoshi Sunohara, senior writer North Korea, which has conducted nuclear and missile tests, is now squaring off with the international community. What is North Korea trying to achieve? The Nihon Keizai Shimbun interviewed former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Armitage, who was in charge of North Korean affairs in the former Bush administration and is familiar with the Obama administration's North Korea policy. -- What is your view of the recent nuclear and missile tests carried out by North Korea? Armitage: North Korea probably intended to display unity under the new leader. This new leader means Kim Jong Un (i.e., Kim Jong Il's third son). U.S. Secretary of Defense Gates and others have also said that a complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons programs (CVID) is a common policy goal of Japan and the United States. However, all the other countries participating in the Six-Party Talks will have to wait for resumption until North Korea's new regime figures out a new way of dealing with this issue. -- When you say "new regime," do you mean a new leadership under Kim TOKYO 00001651 013 OF 014 Jong Un? Armitage: I don't know whether the father-to-son transfer of power will be successful. The son is young, and he holds a low rank in the military committee. For the past two years, the military has had the political initiative in North Korea. We cannot ignore this. -- Do you think Kim Jong Un will be a puppet of the military? Armitage: That is a possibility. (As a figure to seize real power) Chang Sung Taek (i.e., Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law) is also a potential candidate. He has a strong influence on the Korean Workers Party, and he's a powerful man. -- What about the possibility of North Korea launching a nuclear attack on Japan? Armitage: I don't think North Korea is thinking of committing suicide. If they attack Tokyo, we will fight back immediately. -- Former Defense Secretary Perry says North Korea has six nuclear bombs. Armitage: I think they have the necessary means to acquire six to ten nuclear bombs. However, I don't think they have acquired that many nuclear bombs yet. I don't think they have missile-loading technology either. -- Will the Obama administration take military action against North Korea? Armitage: The United States will not take military action for a change of regime. If we learned with absolute conviction that we or our allies were going to be attacked, then the United States would not rule out preemptive action. But that's unlikely. -- In Japan, there are also arguments calling for going nuclear. Armitage: That's a negative step. However, I'm not negative about Japan's option of having the capability of striking enemy bases. The question is about (whether or not to have) ballistic missiles. There's no need (for Japan's missiles) to reach Beijing. 19) Japan to send observers for Afghan presidential election YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) July 22, 2009 Keigo Sakai, Kabul The Japanese government has decided to send an election-monitoring team to Afghanistan for its presidential election set for Aug. 20. Motohide Yoshikawa, special representative for assistance to Afghanistan and Pakistan, now visiting the Afghan capital of Kabul, revealed this decision. The government will send a total of more than 10 observers to Afghan localities, including the midwestern district of Chaghcharan, where Japan will send a provincial reconstruction team (PRT),and also to Kabul. In 2004, Japan sent a 10-member team to Afghanistan to observe the presidential election. Yoshikawa told Afghan President Karzai in a meeting yesterday that holding a fair election would lead to Japan's continued assistance. TOKYO 00001651 014 OF 014 20) Chinese vessels vacate Shirakaba gas field; Foreign Ministry unable to verify drilling MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) July 22, 2009 It has been learned that Chinese vessels that were gathering near the Shirakaba (Chunxiao in Chinese),which Tokyo and Beijing have agreed to develop jointly, have left the waters near the site. A senior Foreign Ministry official revealed this information on July ¶21. It appears that the ships left for China on the 15th. The Chinese government explained that the ships were in the area to conduct maintenance of the gas field. The Japanese government was unable to observe any activities seen to be violations of the bilateral agreement, such as drilling the gas field, according to a senior government official. However, it will continue to monitor the situation vigilantly. Concerning the development of the Shirakaba gas field, which the Chinese side had already started developing, Tokyo and Beijing agreed to suspend the development last June until Japanese companies begin participating in the project to jointly develop the gas field and specific conditions for such issues as an investment ratio, etc., are set. If drilling is confirmed, it means that the Chinese side has violated the agreement. The Foreign Ministry has been conveying strong concern to China since three Chinese vessels arrived at the site on the 10th. ZUMWALT

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