DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/21/09-1

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 001638

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WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/21/09-1

INDEX:

(1) Poll: 56 PERCENT want DPJ to win next general election, 23
PERCENT pick LDP; Cabinet support at 17 PERCENT (Mainichi)

(2) Poll: DPJ scores 36 PERCENT , LDP at 15 PERCENT in public
preference for proportional representation (Tokyo Shimbun)

(3) Poll: LDP support lowest at 20 PERCENT (Asahi)

(4) Aso has yet to be asked by LDP candidates to stump for them;
Koizumi gave more than 70 campaign speeches, while Uno made only two
speeches (Tokyo Shimbun)

(5) 24 Lower House members decide not to run in next general
election or retire from politics (Yomiuri)

(6) 3,648 LDP supporters of Nagasaki quit party's Yamanashi
prefectural chapter (Yomiuri)

(7) JCP reveals willingness to become "constructive opposition
party" (Yomiuri)

(8) SDP's Fukushima: Shift in DPJ's stance on refueling mission
impermissible (Tokyo Shimbun)

(9) U.S. preparing for "DPJ administration" (Mainichi)

(10) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets with Okada (Asahi)

(11) U.S. assistant secretary of state to "respect election
results," emphasizes continuity of Japan-U.S. relationship
(Mainichi)

(12) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets senior MOFA, DPJ
officials (Mainichi)

(13) DPJ Secretary General Okada calls for discussing interpretation
of three nonnuclear principles (Nikkei)

(14) Agreement reached with U.S. to discuss nuclear umbrella
regularly; Weighty theme for Japan as a victim of atomic bombing;
Eventual violation of nuclear principles feared (Tokyo Shimbun)

(15) Agreement reached on regular talks on nuclear umbrella; U.S.
gives consideration to discussion on Japan's nuclearization
(Yomiuri)

(16) Regular Japan-U.S. consultations on "nuclear umbrella": U.S.
gives consideration to alleviating Japan's anxiety; difficult to
implement (Mainichi)

(17) Regular nuclear-umbrella talks: Japan, U.S. to share
intelligence to strengthen deterrence capabilities (Nikkei)

(18) Futenma relocation at least outside Okinawa: Hatoyama (Nikkei)

(19) Government to propose joint quake drill in Indonesia at ARF
(Yomiuri)

ARTICLES:


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(1) Poll: 56 PERCENT want DPJ to win next general election, 23
PERCENT pick LDP; Cabinet support at 17 PERCENT

MAINICHI (Page 1) (Abridged)
July 20, 2009

The Mainichi Shimbun conducted a nationwide public opinion survey on
July 18-19. In the survey, respondents were asked which political
party they would like to see win the next election for the House of
Representatives. To this question, 56 PERCENT chose the leading
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto),up 3 points from
the last survey taken June 13-14. The ruling Liberal Democratic
Party fell far behind the DPJ, staying at 23 PERCENT , down 4 points
from the last survey. In the breakdown of public support for
political parties, the DPJ scored an all-time high of 36 PERCENT ,
up 2 points from the last survey. The LDP dropped 2 points to18
PERCENT , the lowest ever since Aso cabinet came into office. The
figures clearly show that the DPJ, which won a landslide victory in
the July 12 Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, has been gaining
momentum nationwide.

The Aso cabinet's support rate was 17 PERCENT , down 2 points from
the last survey. Its nonsupport rate rose 7 points to 67 PERCENT .

In the survey, respondents were also asked whether they though DPJ
President Hatoyama or Prime Minister Aso would be more appropriate
for premiership. In reponse to this question, 28 PERCENT picked
Hatoyama, down 4 points from the last survey, and 11 PERCENT chose
Aso, down 4 points. "Neither is appropriate" accounted for 57
PERCENT , up 11 points. In the case of Hatoyama, 75 PERCENT
answered "No" when asked whether he has fulfilled his accountability
on his fund-managing body's political donation scandal. This issue
seems to have affected public expectations for Hatoyama.

Respondents were also asked which political party they would vote
for in their proportional representation blocs if an election were
to be held now for the House of Representatives. In this public
preference of political parties for proportional representation, the
DPJ marked 45 PERCENT , with the LDP at 18 PERCENT . The DPJ rose 17
points from this March's survey in which the same question was
asked. Meanwhile, the LDP dropped 2 points.

In the breakdown of public support for other political parties, the
New Komeito party, which is the LDP's coalition partner, was at 5
PERCENT . The Japanese Communist Party was at 4 PERCENT , and the
Social Democratic Party at 1 PERCENT . "None" accounted for 32
PERCENT ."

(2) Poll: DPJ scores 36 PERCENT , LDP at 15 PERCENT in public
preference for proportional representation

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Abridged)
July 20, 2009

Kyodo News Service conducted a telephone-based public opinion survey
across the nation on July 18-19 to probe the voting population's
interest in the forthcoming election for the House of
Representatives and look into trends in public support for political
parties. In the public preference of political parties for
proportional representation, the leading opposition Democratic Party
of Japan (Minshuto) scored 36.2 PERCENT , with the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party at 15.6 PERCENT . In a previous pre-election poll

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taken before the last election for the House of Representatives in
2005, the LDP marked 31.5 PERCENT , with the DPJ at 15.2 PERCENT .
This time, however, the DPJ completely outstripped the LDP.

However, "undecided" accounted for 34.7 PERCENT . As it stands, the
situation could change.

Asked about the desirable form of government, 39.3 PERCENT opted
for a "DPJ-led coalition government," topping all other answers.
Among other answers, 20.8 PERCENT chose a "new framework of
government under political realignment," followed by a "grand
coalition of the LDP and the DPJ." An "LDP-led coalition government"
accounted for only 14.8 PERCENT .

In the public preference of political parties for proportional
representation in the upcoming election, the DPJ and the LDP were
followed by the New Komeito party at 4.2 PERCENT , the Japanese
Communist Party at 3.4 PERCENT , and the People's New Party at 0.1
PERCENT . Respondents were also asked which political part's
candidate they would vote for. In this preference as well, the DPJ
outpaced the LDP, with the DPJ marking 34.1 PERCENT and the LDP at
16.1 PERCENT .

(3) Poll: LDP support lowest at 20 PERCENT

ASAHI (Page 1) (Abridged)
July 20, 2009

According to findings from a telephone-based spot nationwide public
opinion survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun on July 18-19, the
rate of public support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
dropped from 24 PERCENT in the last survey taken July 4-5 to 20
PERCENT , the lowest ever since April 2001 when the current polling
methodology was adopted. In the meantime, the support rate for the
leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) rose from 25
PERCENT to 31 PERCENT , far above the LDP. Respondents were also
asked which political party they would vote for in their
proportional representation blocs if an election were to be held for
the House of Representatives. In this public preference as well, the
DPJ overwhelmed the LDP, with the DPJ marking 42 PERCENT and the
LDP at 19 PERCENT . The public approval rating for the Aso cabinet
was 17 PERCENT , down from 20 PERCENT in the last survey.

The LDP's support rate was over 40 PERCENT for a while after the
last general election in September 2005. The LDP suffered a crushing
defeat in the July 2007 election for the House of Councillors under
the Abe cabinet. In a survey taken right after that election, the
LDP's support rate dropped to 21 PERCENT , the lowest level under
the current polling methodology. However, it rebounded thereafter
and was 34 PERCENT when the Aso cabinet came into office in
September 2008. The results of previous polls and the one taken this
time cannot be simply compared due to different polling
methodologies. Even so, the LDP's all-time low in its history from
1955 was 19 PERCENT at the last stage of the Hashimoto cabinet.

Meanwhile, the 31 PERCENT rating for the DPJ follows its all-time
high of 34 PERCENT in July 2007 and 32 PERCENT in the following
month.

In the spot survey, respondents were also asked about the desirable
form of government. In response to this question, 49 PERCENT
answered that they would like the present LDP-led coalition

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government to be replaced with a DPJ-led coalition government, with
only 22 PERCENT saying they would like the present LDP-led
coalition government to continue. In the last survey, 47 PERCENT
opted for a DPJ-led coalition government, with 24 PERCENT choosing
the present LDP-led coalition government. Putting together the
trends of other answers, the mood for a change of government is
growing even stronger.

(4) Aso has yet to be asked by LDP candidates to stump for them;
Koizumi gave more than 70 campaign speeches, while Uno made only two
speeches

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full)
July 21, 2009

Schedules for Prime Minister Taro Aso's speeches in the campaign
trail for the upcoming House of Representatives have yet to be set.
Although Aso wants to begin a nationwide stumping tour, whether he
will be asked by candidates on the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to
stump for them is uncertain because the approval rates for his
cabinet have dropped in polls due to the moves in the LDP to remove
him from office triggered by his declaration last week to dissolve
the Lower House (on July 21).

After the Lower House is dissolved on July 21, Aso intends to
fulfill such his duties for the time being by attending regular
cabinet meetings and discussing on policy pledges for the Lower
House election, and taping a party political broadcast. However, the
schedule for his campaign trail has not yet been decided. Aso's aide
said: "We don't know whether the candidates are ready to receive the
prime minister. Since the preparations take a lot of time, (Aso)
cannot go immediately."

However, the number of campaign speeches given by a prime minister
is a barometer for gauging the popularity of a prime minister. In
the 2005 Lower House election, in which the LDP won a major victory,
(then) Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, after starting his stumping
speeches ten days before the start of the official campaign,
delivered more than 70 speeches up until election day.

Meanwhile, in the 1989 House of Councillors election, (then) Prime
Minister Sosuke Uno, who was mired in a scandal over his affair with
a woman, was shunned by LDP candidates, citing that women's votes
would decrease if he stumped for them. So, he announced the election
kickoff at LDP headquarters all on his own. He delivered only two
campaign speeches. As a result, the LDP lost its single-party
majority of the Upper House for the first time.

One mid-level LDP lawmaker made this cynical comment: "Probably, no
candidates will ask him for support. However, he will probably make
his first speech for the election in Akihabara, his home ground."

(5) 24 Lower House members decide not to run in next general
election or retire from politics

YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
July 20, 2009

A total of 24 House of Representatives members from ruling and
opposition parties, including former Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi and Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono, have decided not to run
in the next general election or to retire from the political world.

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The 24 Lower House members include 17 from the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP),three from the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),one
each from the New Komeito and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP),
and two independents. Among the 24, Kono is the person with most
times elected. He is now serving in his 14th-term in the Diet. The
oldest members are Yuji Tsushima, who announced on July 19 his
intention to retire from politics, and Hosei Norota, former
agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister. The two are 79 years
old. The youngest member is Taizo Sugimura, 29 years old, who was
elected to the Diet in the 2005 Lower House election, as one of the
so-called "Koizumi children."

Koizumi announced in September 2008 his decision not to run in the
next Lower House election. His second son, Shinjiro plans to run on
the LDP ticket in the snap election, from the No. 11 district in
Kanagawa Prefecture.

Kono became Japan's longest serving Lower House speaker on Nov. 20,
2008, since he assumed the post on Nov. 19, 2003. He will be serving
in the post 2,029 days when the Lower House is dissolved on July

21.

In the DPJ, Supreme Adviser Hirohisa Fujii and former Vice President
Tetsundo Iwakuni, and Seiichi Kaneda have decided not to run in the
general election.

(6) 3,648 LDP supporters of Nagasaki quit party's Yamanashi
prefectural chapter

YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
July 19, 2009

A total of 3,648 supporters of Kotaro Nagasaki, a House of
Representatives member (block south Kanto proportional independent)
who has left the Liberal Democratic Party, submitted their notices
of resignation to the party's Yamanashi prefectural chapter in Kofu
yesterday.

In the previous Lower House election in 2005, Nagasaki ran against
former LDP General Council chairman Mitsuo Horiuchi, one of the
so-called postal rebels, in Yamanashi Constituency No. 2 as an
"assassin candidate" on the party's ticket. He was defeated by
Horiuchi but was elected through the proportional representation
segment for the first time. In June of last year, the LDP decided to
endorse Horiuchi as its candidate for the next Lower House election.
In reaction, Nagasaki submitted a letter of resignation to the LDP,
and the party formally accepted it on July 17.

The mass defection reflects the supporters' dissatisfaction at the
party's decision over the nomination. Takatoshi Komatani, a town
assembly member with the history of 42 years of party member,
complained: "The upper echelons of the party are incoherent in
saying and doing. The LDP has become a party of opportunism."
According the prefectural chapter, the number of members who have
paid the party's annual fee to the chapter is about 12,000. An
official said: "Persons who have not paid the fee and whom we have
not recognized as members are also included among those who
submitted their resignations."

(7) JCP reveals willingness to become "constructive opposition
party"

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YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
July 19, 2009

The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) has revealed its willingness to
become a constructive opposition party in dealing with political
agenda items after the upcoming House of Representatives election.
In the event that a government led by the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) is inaugurated after the election, the JCP will not join a
coalition government but is willing to exert influence by offering
cooperation over policies acceptable to the party on an
issue-by-issue basis.

In its basic platform announced on July 16 for the upcoming general
election, the JCP indicates a growing possibility that a DPJ-led
government will established after the election. Based on this view,
the party criticizes the DPJ for a lack of explanations about what
reforms the party intends to carry out in economic and foreign
policies.

Given this situation, the JCP pledges to be a "promoter," as "a
constructive opposition party," for such policies as revising the
Workers Dispatch Law, guaranteeing agricultural products' prices and
farmers' income, and retrenching or abolishing U.S. military bases
and to be a "breakwater" against such policies as a consumption tax
hike, constitutional revision, and a reduction in the fixed number
of seats in the proportional representation constituencies in the
Lower House.

Ten more seats are needed for the DPJ to hold a majority in the
House of Councillors independently. The main opposition party
therefore has in mind the possibility of establishing a coalition
government with the People's New Party or the Social Democratic
Party, but uncertainty is still looming over whether the party will
be able to launch a stable government. The JCP holds seven seats in
the Upper House. By indicating its cooperation in managing Diet
affairs and adopting bills, the JCP is casting amorous glances to
the DPJ.

The JCP has also decided to put up only 152 candidates for
single-seat constituencies in the next Lower House election, showing
its willingness to offer cooperation to a DPJ-led government. With
this, some observers anticipate that the votes for the JCP might go
to DPJ candidates in the constituencies in which the JCP fields no
candidates.

(8) SDP's Fukushima: Shift in DPJ's stance on refueling mission
impermissible

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
July 19, 2009

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama traded
verbal jabs on July 18 with Social Democratic Party (SDP) head
Mizuho Fukushima over the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling
mission in the Indian Ocean. At a press conference in Okinawa City,
Fukushima fiercely criticized Hatoyama's plan to continue the
refueling mission, saying: "(The DPJ) opposed the refueling mission
as an opposition party. It is absurd to change its stance simply
because power is now within its reach. We cannot overlook the shift
in the DPJ's stance."


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Meanwhile, Hatoyama, holding a news conference in the city of
Takamatsu, reiterated the policy direction to continue the refueling
mission for the time being, saying, "In view of the involvement of
other countries, it would be difficult to stop the operations
immediately after taking the reins of government." Fukushima also
indicated that even if the opposition bloc wins the Lower House
election, her party will continue to place high priority on its
stance of opposing the overseas dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces.
Making adjustments between the DPJ and SDP seems difficult.
Fukushima also expressed a sense of displeasure about Hatoyama's
comment that described a Japan-U.S. secret deal on bringing nuclear
weapons into Japan "unavoidable." Fukushima said: "The statement is
not permissible. If (the DPJ) endorses the secret pact, how is it
different from the LDP?"

(9) U.S. preparing for "DPJ administration"
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full)

Yudai Nakazawa

The reason why the Security Sub-Committee (SSC) meeting was held at
this time is because both Japan and the U.S. had judged that in
light of the possibility of a change of government after the
upcoming House of Representatives election, it was necessary to kick
off working level discussions on the Japan-U.S. relationship in
anticipation of the 50th anniversary of the revision of the security
treaty next year.

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is opposed to the relocation of
the U.S. marines to Guam under the U.S. Forces Japan realignment
process. DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada claims that the
situation of concentration of U.S. military bases in Okinawa "should
be discussed from scratch."

During this visit to Japan, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt
Campbell also met with Okada on July 17. A senior Ministry of
Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official points out that: "The U.S. is
concerned about the bilateral relationship under a DPJ
administration. (The meeting) was also meant to put pressure on the
DPJ."

Campbell worked with Kazuyoshi Umemoto, director general of MOFA's
North American Affairs Bureau, on the 1996 "Japan-U.S. Joint
Declaration on Security," a document on reviewing the security
arrangements in response to the post-Cold War era. A "review
process" (Campbell) toward the drafting of a new security
declaration will now be initiated, taking advantage of such old
connections.

(10) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets with Okada

ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)
July 18, 2009

Visiting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific
Affairs Kurt Campbell on July 17 met with Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada in Tokyo. According to Okada,
when he told Campbell, "Let's build a relationship of trust between
President Obama and prime minister Hatoyama and settle pending
issues one by one," with his party taking the reins of government in
mind, Campbell replied, "(The U.S. government) is politically
neutral."

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The meeting was proposed by Okada and was realized because Campbell
is interested in the DPJ's foreign policy. They apparently exchanged
views on a fundamental review of the Status of Forces Agreement,
which the DPJ advocates.

On the same day Campbell also met with families of victims abducted
by North Korea - Shigeru Yokota and his wife Sakie, the parents of
Megumi Yokota, and Akihiro Arimoto and his wife Kayoko, the parents
of Keiko Arimoto - at the U.S. Embassy. During the meeting Campbell
indicated the U.S. stance of attaching importance to the abduction
issue.

(11) U.S. assistant secretary of state to "respect election
results," emphasizes continuity of Japan-U.S. relationship

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
July 18, 2009

Yoji Hanaoka

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Kurt Campbell held a news conference in Tokyo on July 17. He said
that in case a change of administration takes place after the
upcoming House of Representatives election, "We trust the Japanese
people, and whichever party wins in the election, we will respect
(the results)," emphasizing that there will be no major change in
the Japan-U.S. relationship. He said that the Obama administration
has confirmed its position of continuing with the U.S. Forces Japan
realignment program, and "we hope that the Japanese side, whatever
administration it will be, will promote this process."

(12) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets senior MOFA, DPJ
officials

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
July 18, 2009

Yudai Nakazawa, Takenori Noguchi

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell met the directors
general of the Foreign Policy, Asian and Oceanian Affairs, and North
American Affairs Bureaus at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA)
on July 17. It is believed that they discussed the Obama
administration's nuclear deterrence policy and a "new approach" to
make the Six-Party Talks function effectively in light of North
Korea's recent nuclear test. Campbell also met Democratic Party of
Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada.

In the meeting with MOFA directors general, the participants agreed
that North Korea's development of nuclear arms and missiles "is a
threat to the security of Japan and the U.S. and is unacceptable."
They reconfirmed close cooperation on this issue.

Meanwhile, Okada said at his meeting with Campbell that with regard
to the revision of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA),
"We will not put all the pending issues on the negotiating table at
once," indicating that priority will be given to building a
relationship of trust between U.S. President Barack Obama and DPJ
President Yukio Hatoyama.

(13) DPJ Secretary General Okada calls for discussing interpretation

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of three nonnuclear principles

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 19, 2009

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada on
July 18 gave a speech in Yokkaichi City, Mie Prefecture. In the
speech he indicated his perception that in the event of the DPJ
taking the reins of government, it would discuss the three
nonnuclear principles, including taking a second look at the
interpretation of those principles. He said, "We must discuss the
interpretation of the principle that 'nuclear weapons shall not
enter Japan' at a national forum and make a political decision in
the end."

Okada said: "The U.S. has stopped carrying nuclear arms on vessels
other than submarines. Nuclear submarines do not make port calls in
Japan." He stressed, "Discussing the interpretation of the three
nonnuclear principles will not present a problem at the present
point of time."

(14) Agreement reached with U.S. to discuss nuclear umbrella
regularly; Weighty theme for Japan as a victim of atomic bombing;
Eventual violation of nuclear principles feared

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
July 19, 2009

A Japan-U.S. Security Subcommittee (SSC) meeting was held on July 18
between director-general level diplomatic and security officials of
the two countries. The two sides reached an agreement to begin
meeting regularly to discuss, among other matters, the U.S. nuclear
umbrella over Japan. To what extent can Japan, the only country to
have suffered an atomic attack, be involved in America's nuclear
strategy? The matter is likely to be a key challenge for the
Japanese administration after the forthcoming general election.

As part of its goal of nuclear disarmament, the U.S. Obama
administration is reviewing the country's nuclear posture. Striking
a balance between nuclear disarmament and nuclear deterrence is a
challenge. The Obama administration, which is aiming to break away
from unilateralism, plans to carry out a review in collaboration
with U.S. allies.

President Obama regards the Japan-U.S. alliance as a cornerstone of
U.S. security policy in East Asia. The President plans to strengthen
the Japan-U.S. alliance in wide-ranging areas from the nuclear
umbrella to measures to curb global warming. The U.S. government is
eyeing a new Japan-U.S. declaration with an eye on next year which
marks the 50th anniversary of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty.

For Japan, which has suffered an atomic attack, nuclear strategy has
been a difficult subject to broach. Japan maintains three
non-nuclear principles of not possessing, producing, or permitting
the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japan, while relying on the
U.S. nuclear umbrella. The two countries have never specifically
discussed how to use nuclear arms in a contingency.

A senior Foreign Ministry said, "Once the nuclear umbrella is
guaranteed, the argument calling for the independent possession of
nuclear weapons will be contained." Meanwhile, a Defense Ministry
official expressed his apprehension, "The matter might escalate into

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Japan agreeing to the use of nuclear weapons."

After the SSC, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell
expressed his hope for talks with the next Japanese administration,
saying: "Whichever party wins the next general election, we are
ready to work together. U.S.-Japan relations are solid. I would like
to hold close talks with Japan as a U.S. ally."

(15) Agreement reached on regular talks on nuclear umbrella; U.S.
gives consideration to discussion on Japan's nuclearization

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
July 19, 2009

Japan and the United States agreed during high-level security talks
on July 18 to meet regularly to discuss the nuclear umbrella.
Through such meetings, the government intends to seek information on
a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) to be compiled by the U.S. government
before the end of the year.

U.S. President Barack President is showing a positive stance on
nuclear disarmament, but in East Asia, North Korea has conducted
nuclear tests and China is pursuing a military buildup and
modernization policy course. President Obama announced at the
Japan-U.S. summit in February this year America's commitment to
defending Japan, including its nuclear deterrence. But concern still
remains in Japan on whether the nuclear umbrella will actually
function during a contingency.

The upcoming NPR will be the third in U.S. history. Japan reportedly
has not received detailed explanations of the NPR. A Defense
Ministry source said, "We cannot rely on the United States unless it
tells us how it plans to use its nuclear weapons." There is a
possibility that the discussion in Japan on arming itself with
nuclear weapons will gain momentum. The United States is apparently
responded positively to Japan's call for regular talks on the
nuclear umbrella in deference to Japan's domestic circumstances.

(16) Regular Japan-U.S. consultations on "nuclear umbrella": U.S.
gives consideration to alleviating Japan's anxiety; difficult to
implement

MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full)
July 19, 2009

Takashi Sudo

The Japan-U.S. Security Sub-Committee (SSC) meeting of director
general level officials of the two governments responsible for
foreign policy and defense held on July 18 agreed to hold regular
consultations on the "nuclear umbrella (extended deterrence)." This
is meant for the U.S. to explain the Obama administration's nuclear
policy in order to alleviate the anxiety of Japan, which has been
shaken by North Korea's second nuclear test. U.S. Assistant
Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that the regular consultations
will "confirm that the nuclear umbrella is strong" and will be held
in the next few weeks. In anticipation of a change of administration
in Japan after the forthcoming House of Representatives election,
the U.S. also wants to put in place a mechanism for bilateral
consultations.

There have been concerns in Japan about the reliability of the U.S.

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"nuclear umbrella" to counteract China's and North Korea's nuclear
arms in the event progress is made in the U.S.-Russia nuclear
disarmament talks under the Obama administration's new nuclear
policy.

Japan and the U.S. have repeatedly confirmed the "nuclear umbrella"
at summit meetings and other venues. However, in reality, "there is
no concrete picture of what happens next." (senior Ministry of
Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official) The regular consultations agreed
upon this time will only be at the deputy minister level, and it is
very doubtful if substantial discussions can be conducted between
the U.S., a nuclear power, and Japan, a non-nuclear power.

The U.S. will issue its "Nuclear Posture Review," which is the
embodiment of the Obama administration's nuclear policy, by the end
of 2009. The nuclear umbrella for the allies is a major theme in
this document.

Campbell, who participated in the SSC meeting, emphasized the
importance of this gathering of four senior foreign policy and
defense officials. This is supposed to demonstrate that the U.S. has
sent its officials to Japan to hear out the views of its ally. There
are concerns in the U.S. that North Korea's accelerated nuclear
armament may lead Japan and the Republic of Korea to acquire a
nuclear capability out of apprehensions about the nuclear umbrella
in a domino effect. The United States' purpose in highlighting the
regular consultations is to alleviate Japan's anxiety.

A senior MOFA official who attended the SSC meeting says: "The
operation of nuclear weapons is top secret for the U.S. While we
will get a briefing, concrete discussions will be limited." A senior
Ministry of Defense official also notes that, "Actual operation of
nuclear weapons in an emergency will not be discussed." Although the
format will be a consultation, in reality, the substance will remain
a one-sided briefing by the U.S. for Japan like before.

(17) Regular nuclear-umbrella talks: Japan, U.S. to share
intelligence to strengthen deterrence capabilities

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 19, 2009

The governments of Japan and the U.S. will shortly launch their
first regular conference to discuss deterrence, including nuclear
umbrella. Amid U.S. President Obama promoting nuclear disarmament
with an eye on a nuclear-free world, Japan aims to become
proactively involved in the U.S. effort to review its nuclear
strategy.

The two countries at the envisaged talks will discuss sharing
intelligence on the system of deterring proliferation with the use
of U.S. strategic nuclear weapons and specific approaches to
emergency situations, such as missile launches by North Korea. Japan
also intends to ask the U.S. to brief it on U.S.-Russia talks on the
signing of a new treaty replacing their Strategic Arms Reduction
Treaty I (START I).

Japan wants to have its wishes reflected in the work of renewing the
U.S. report on a review of the nuclear structure, on which it is now
pressing ahead. The Japanese government's stance is that it is
necessary to maintain a nuclear deterrence. Meanwhile it praises and
backs President Obama's active stance to move on nuclear

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disarmament. Both countries want to jointly search for an effective
deterrence system, by combining it with Japan's conventional weapons
and missile defense.

(18) Futenma relocation at least outside Okinawa: Hatoyama

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 20, 2009)

Yukio Hatoyama, president of the leading opposition Democratic Party
of Japan (Minshuto),attended a town hall meeting held yesterday in
Okinawa City, Okinawa Prefecture, during which he said his party,
when taking office after the forthcoming election for the House of
Representatives, would like to take positive action to relocate the
U.S. military's Futenma airfield "at least outside Okinawa
Prefecture" from its current location in Ginowan City in the island
prefecture. Futenma airfield is to be relocated to a coastal area of
Camp Schwab in Nago City in the prefecture, where an alternative
facility will be built. "It's unreasonable to have Okinawa maintain
its excessive base-hosting burden," Hatoyama said.

(19) Government to propose joint quake drill in Indonesia at ARF

YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
July 21, 2009

The governments of Japan and Indonesia have decided to call for a
joint disaster-relief drill participated in by the military and
private sectors at the next ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). They intend
to carry out the drill in Indonesia based on the scenario of a major
earthquake. The foreign ministers of the two countries will announce
the plan at the 16th ARF.

The drill will include search and rescue operations, medical
activities, construction of a shelter, and transport of the victims.
The aim of the drill is to promote understanding and cooperation
among the countries concerned.

The timing for the drill has yet to be decided, but Japan plans to
send officials from the Defense Ministry, the Self-Defense Force,
the Foreign Ministry, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency
(JICA). Japan also intends to cooperate in drawing up a scenario and
bearing the necessary costs.

The ARF (participated in by 27 countries and regions) was launched
in 1994 as an arena for discussing regional security issues. In
recent years, however, the member countries are trying to turn the
forum into a framework for implementing specific cooperative
actions. The planned drill is part of this move.

This May, the first drill based on the scenario of a typhoon was
held in waters off Manila, co-sponsored by the governments of the
U.S. and the Philippines.

POST