DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/21/09-1

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 001638 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/21/09-1 INDEX: (1) Poll: 56 PERCENT want DPJ to win next general election, 23 PERCENT pick LDP; Cabinet support at 17 PERCENT (Mainichi) (2) Poll: DPJ scores 36 PERCENT , LDP at 15 PERCENT in public preference for proportional representation (Tokyo Shimbun) (3) Poll: LDP support lowest at 20 PERCENT (Asahi) (4) Aso has yet to be asked by LDP candidates to stump for them; Koizumi gave more than 70 campaign speeches, while Uno made only two speeches (Tokyo Shimbun) (5) 24 Lower House members decide not to run in next general election or retire from politics (Yomiuri) (6) 3,648 LDP supporters of Nagasaki quit party's Yamanashi prefectural chapter (Yomiuri) (7) JCP reveals willingness to become "constructive opposition party" (Yomiuri) (8) SDP's Fukushima: Shift in DPJ's stance on refueling mission impermissible (Tokyo Shimbun) (9) U.S. preparing for "DPJ administration" (Mainichi) (10) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets with Okada (Asahi) (11) U.S. assistant secretary of state to "respect election results," emphasizes continuity of Japan-U.S. relationship (Mainichi) (12) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets senior MOFA, DPJ officials (Mainichi) (13) DPJ Secretary General Okada calls for discussing interpretation of three nonnuclear principles (Nikkei) (14) Agreement reached with U.S. to discuss nuclear umbrella regularly; Weighty theme for Japan as a victim of atomic bombing; Eventual violation of nuclear principles feared (Tokyo Shimbun) (15) Agreement reached on regular talks on nuclear umbrella; U.S. gives consideration to discussion on Japan's nuclearization (Yomiuri) (16) Regular Japan-U.S. consultations on "nuclear umbrella": U.S. gives consideration to alleviating Japan's anxiety; difficult to implement (Mainichi) (17) Regular nuclear-umbrella talks: Japan, U.S. to share intelligence to strengthen deterrence capabilities (Nikkei) (18) Futenma relocation at least outside Okinawa: Hatoyama (Nikkei) (19) Government to propose joint quake drill in Indonesia at ARF (Yomiuri) ARTICLES: TOKYO 00001638 002 OF 012 (1) Poll: 56 PERCENT want DPJ to win next general election, 23 PERCENT pick LDP; Cabinet support at 17 PERCENT MAINICHI (Page 1) (Abridged) July 20, 2009 The Mainichi Shimbun conducted a nationwide public opinion survey on July 18-19. In the survey, respondents were asked which political party they would like to see win the next election for the House of Representatives. To this question, 56 PERCENT chose the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto),up 3 points from the last survey taken June 13-14. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party fell far behind the DPJ, staying at 23 PERCENT , down 4 points from the last survey. In the breakdown of public support for political parties, the DPJ scored an all-time high of 36 PERCENT , up 2 points from the last survey. The LDP dropped 2 points to18 PERCENT , the lowest ever since Aso cabinet came into office. The figures clearly show that the DPJ, which won a landslide victory in the July 12 Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, has been gaining momentum nationwide. The Aso cabinet's support rate was 17 PERCENT , down 2 points from the last survey. Its nonsupport rate rose 7 points to 67 PERCENT . In the survey, respondents were also asked whether they though DPJ President Hatoyama or Prime Minister Aso would be more appropriate for premiership. In reponse to this question, 28 PERCENT picked Hatoyama, down 4 points from the last survey, and 11 PERCENT chose Aso, down 4 points. "Neither is appropriate" accounted for 57 PERCENT , up 11 points. In the case of Hatoyama, 75 PERCENT answered "No" when asked whether he has fulfilled his accountability on his fund-managing body's political donation scandal. This issue seems to have affected public expectations for Hatoyama. Respondents were also asked which political party they would vote for in their proportional representation blocs if an election were to be held now for the House of Representatives. In this public preference of political parties for proportional representation, the DPJ marked 45 PERCENT , with the LDP at 18 PERCENT . The DPJ rose 17 points from this March's survey in which the same question was asked. Meanwhile, the LDP dropped 2 points. In the breakdown of public support for other political parties, the New Komeito party, which is the LDP's coalition partner, was at 5 PERCENT . The Japanese Communist Party was at 4 PERCENT , and the Social Democratic Party at 1 PERCENT . "None" accounted for 32 PERCENT ." (2) Poll: DPJ scores 36 PERCENT , LDP at 15 PERCENT in public preference for proportional representation TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Abridged) July 20, 2009 Kyodo News Service conducted a telephone-based public opinion survey across the nation on July 18-19 to probe the voting population's interest in the forthcoming election for the House of Representatives and look into trends in public support for political parties. In the public preference of political parties for proportional representation, the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) scored 36.2 PERCENT , with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party at 15.6 PERCENT . In a previous pre-election poll TOKYO 00001638 003 OF 012 taken before the last election for the House of Representatives in 2005, the LDP marked 31.5 PERCENT , with the DPJ at 15.2 PERCENT . This time, however, the DPJ completely outstripped the LDP. However, "undecided" accounted for 34.7 PERCENT . As it stands, the situation could change. Asked about the desirable form of government, 39.3 PERCENT opted for a "DPJ-led coalition government," topping all other answers. Among other answers, 20.8 PERCENT chose a "new framework of government under political realignment," followed by a "grand coalition of the LDP and the DPJ." An "LDP-led coalition government" accounted for only 14.8 PERCENT . In the public preference of political parties for proportional representation in the upcoming election, the DPJ and the LDP were followed by the New Komeito party at 4.2 PERCENT , the Japanese Communist Party at 3.4 PERCENT , and the People's New Party at 0.1 PERCENT . Respondents were also asked which political part's candidate they would vote for. In this preference as well, the DPJ outpaced the LDP, with the DPJ marking 34.1 PERCENT and the LDP at 16.1 PERCENT . (3) Poll: LDP support lowest at 20 PERCENT ASAHI (Page 1) (Abridged) July 20, 2009 According to findings from a telephone-based spot nationwide public opinion survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun on July 18-19, the rate of public support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party dropped from 24 PERCENT in the last survey taken July 4-5 to 20 PERCENT , the lowest ever since April 2001 when the current polling methodology was adopted. In the meantime, the support rate for the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) rose from 25 PERCENT to 31 PERCENT , far above the LDP. Respondents were also asked which political party they would vote for in their proportional representation blocs if an election were to be held for the House of Representatives. In this public preference as well, the DPJ overwhelmed the LDP, with the DPJ marking 42 PERCENT and the LDP at 19 PERCENT . The public approval rating for the Aso cabinet was 17 PERCENT , down from 20 PERCENT in the last survey. The LDP's support rate was over 40 PERCENT for a while after the last general election in September 2005. The LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the July 2007 election for the House of Councillors under the Abe cabinet. In a survey taken right after that election, the LDP's support rate dropped to 21 PERCENT , the lowest level under the current polling methodology. However, it rebounded thereafter and was 34 PERCENT when the Aso cabinet came into office in September 2008. The results of previous polls and the one taken this time cannot be simply compared due to different polling methodologies. Even so, the LDP's all-time low in its history from 1955 was 19 PERCENT at the last stage of the Hashimoto cabinet. Meanwhile, the 31 PERCENT rating for the DPJ follows its all-time high of 34 PERCENT in July 2007 and 32 PERCENT in the following month. In the spot survey, respondents were also asked about the desirable form of government. In response to this question, 49 PERCENT answered that they would like the present LDP-led coalition TOKYO 00001638 004 OF 012 government to be replaced with a DPJ-led coalition government, with only 22 PERCENT saying they would like the present LDP-led coalition government to continue. In the last survey, 47 PERCENT opted for a DPJ-led coalition government, with 24 PERCENT choosing the present LDP-led coalition government. Putting together the trends of other answers, the mood for a change of government is growing even stronger. (4) Aso has yet to be asked by LDP candidates to stump for them; Koizumi gave more than 70 campaign speeches, while Uno made only two speeches TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Full) July 21, 2009 Schedules for Prime Minister Taro Aso's speeches in the campaign trail for the upcoming House of Representatives have yet to be set. Although Aso wants to begin a nationwide stumping tour, whether he will be asked by candidates on the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to stump for them is uncertain because the approval rates for his cabinet have dropped in polls due to the moves in the LDP to remove him from office triggered by his declaration last week to dissolve the Lower House (on July 21). After the Lower House is dissolved on July 21, Aso intends to fulfill such his duties for the time being by attending regular cabinet meetings and discussing on policy pledges for the Lower House election, and taping a party political broadcast. However, the schedule for his campaign trail has not yet been decided. Aso's aide said: "We don't know whether the candidates are ready to receive the prime minister. Since the preparations take a lot of time, (Aso) cannot go immediately." However, the number of campaign speeches given by a prime minister is a barometer for gauging the popularity of a prime minister. In the 2005 Lower House election, in which the LDP won a major victory, (then) Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, after starting his stumping speeches ten days before the start of the official campaign, delivered more than 70 speeches up until election day. Meanwhile, in the 1989 House of Councillors election, (then) Prime Minister Sosuke Uno, who was mired in a scandal over his affair with a woman, was shunned by LDP candidates, citing that women's votes would decrease if he stumped for them. So, he announced the election kickoff at LDP headquarters all on his own. He delivered only two campaign speeches. As a result, the LDP lost its single-party majority of the Upper House for the first time. One mid-level LDP lawmaker made this cynical comment: "Probably, no candidates will ask him for support. However, he will probably make his first speech for the election in Akihabara, his home ground." (5) 24 Lower House members decide not to run in next general election or retire from politics YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) July 20, 2009 A total of 24 House of Representatives members from ruling and opposition parties, including former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono, have decided not to run in the next general election or to retire from the political world. TOKYO 00001638 005 OF 012 The 24 Lower House members include 17 from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),three from the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),one each from the New Komeito and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), and two independents. Among the 24, Kono is the person with most times elected. He is now serving in his 14th-term in the Diet. The oldest members are Yuji Tsushima, who announced on July 19 his intention to retire from politics, and Hosei Norota, former agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister. The two are 79 years old. The youngest member is Taizo Sugimura, 29 years old, who was elected to the Diet in the 2005 Lower House election, as one of the so-called "Koizumi children." Koizumi announced in September 2008 his decision not to run in the next Lower House election. His second son, Shinjiro plans to run on the LDP ticket in the snap election, from the No. 11 district in Kanagawa Prefecture. Kono became Japan's longest serving Lower House speaker on Nov. 20, 2008, since he assumed the post on Nov. 19, 2003. He will be serving in the post 2,029 days when the Lower House is dissolved on July ¶21. In the DPJ, Supreme Adviser Hirohisa Fujii and former Vice President Tetsundo Iwakuni, and Seiichi Kaneda have decided not to run in the general election. (6) 3,648 LDP supporters of Nagasaki quit party's Yamanashi prefectural chapter YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) July 19, 2009 A total of 3,648 supporters of Kotaro Nagasaki, a House of Representatives member (block south Kanto proportional independent) who has left the Liberal Democratic Party, submitted their notices of resignation to the party's Yamanashi prefectural chapter in Kofu yesterday. In the previous Lower House election in 2005, Nagasaki ran against former LDP General Council chairman Mitsuo Horiuchi, one of the so-called postal rebels, in Yamanashi Constituency No. 2 as an "assassin candidate" on the party's ticket. He was defeated by Horiuchi but was elected through the proportional representation segment for the first time. In June of last year, the LDP decided to endorse Horiuchi as its candidate for the next Lower House election. In reaction, Nagasaki submitted a letter of resignation to the LDP, and the party formally accepted it on July 17. The mass defection reflects the supporters' dissatisfaction at the party's decision over the nomination. Takatoshi Komatani, a town assembly member with the history of 42 years of party member, complained: "The upper echelons of the party are incoherent in saying and doing. The LDP has become a party of opportunism." According the prefectural chapter, the number of members who have paid the party's annual fee to the chapter is about 12,000. An official said: "Persons who have not paid the fee and whom we have not recognized as members are also included among those who submitted their resignations." (7) JCP reveals willingness to become "constructive opposition party" TOKYO 00001638 006 OF 012 YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) July 19, 2009 The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) has revealed its willingness to become a constructive opposition party in dealing with political agenda items after the upcoming House of Representatives election. In the event that a government led by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is inaugurated after the election, the JCP will not join a coalition government but is willing to exert influence by offering cooperation over policies acceptable to the party on an issue-by-issue basis. In its basic platform announced on July 16 for the upcoming general election, the JCP indicates a growing possibility that a DPJ-led government will established after the election. Based on this view, the party criticizes the DPJ for a lack of explanations about what reforms the party intends to carry out in economic and foreign policies. Given this situation, the JCP pledges to be a "promoter," as "a constructive opposition party," for such policies as revising the Workers Dispatch Law, guaranteeing agricultural products' prices and farmers' income, and retrenching or abolishing U.S. military bases and to be a "breakwater" against such policies as a consumption tax hike, constitutional revision, and a reduction in the fixed number of seats in the proportional representation constituencies in the Lower House. Ten more seats are needed for the DPJ to hold a majority in the House of Councillors independently. The main opposition party therefore has in mind the possibility of establishing a coalition government with the People's New Party or the Social Democratic Party, but uncertainty is still looming over whether the party will be able to launch a stable government. The JCP holds seven seats in the Upper House. By indicating its cooperation in managing Diet affairs and adopting bills, the JCP is casting amorous glances to the DPJ. The JCP has also decided to put up only 152 candidates for single-seat constituencies in the next Lower House election, showing its willingness to offer cooperation to a DPJ-led government. With this, some observers anticipate that the votes for the JCP might go to DPJ candidates in the constituencies in which the JCP fields no candidates. (8) SDP's Fukushima: Shift in DPJ's stance on refueling mission impermissible TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) July 19, 2009 Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama traded verbal jabs on July 18 with Social Democratic Party (SDP) head Mizuho Fukushima over the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. At a press conference in Okinawa City, Fukushima fiercely criticized Hatoyama's plan to continue the refueling mission, saying: "(The DPJ) opposed the refueling mission as an opposition party. It is absurd to change its stance simply because power is now within its reach. We cannot overlook the shift in the DPJ's stance." TOKYO 00001638 007 OF 012 Meanwhile, Hatoyama, holding a news conference in the city of Takamatsu, reiterated the policy direction to continue the refueling mission for the time being, saying, "In view of the involvement of other countries, it would be difficult to stop the operations immediately after taking the reins of government." Fukushima also indicated that even if the opposition bloc wins the Lower House election, her party will continue to place high priority on its stance of opposing the overseas dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces. Making adjustments between the DPJ and SDP seems difficult. Fukushima also expressed a sense of displeasure about Hatoyama's comment that described a Japan-U.S. secret deal on bringing nuclear weapons into Japan "unavoidable." Fukushima said: "The statement is not permissible. If (the DPJ) endorses the secret pact, how is it different from the LDP?" (9) U.S. preparing for "DPJ administration" MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) Yudai Nakazawa The reason why the Security Sub-Committee (SSC) meeting was held at this time is because both Japan and the U.S. had judged that in light of the possibility of a change of government after the upcoming House of Representatives election, it was necessary to kick off working level discussions on the Japan-U.S. relationship in anticipation of the 50th anniversary of the revision of the security treaty next year. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is opposed to the relocation of the U.S. marines to Guam under the U.S. Forces Japan realignment process. DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada claims that the situation of concentration of U.S. military bases in Okinawa "should be discussed from scratch." During this visit to Japan, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell also met with Okada on July 17. A senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official points out that: "The U.S. is concerned about the bilateral relationship under a DPJ administration. (The meeting) was also meant to put pressure on the DPJ." Campbell worked with Kazuyoshi Umemoto, director general of MOFA's North American Affairs Bureau, on the 1996 "Japan-U.S. Joint Declaration on Security," a document on reviewing the security arrangements in response to the post-Cold War era. A "review process" (Campbell) toward the drafting of a new security declaration will now be initiated, taking advantage of such old connections. (10) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets with Okada ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) July 18, 2009 Visiting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell on July 17 met with Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada in Tokyo. According to Okada, when he told Campbell, "Let's build a relationship of trust between President Obama and prime minister Hatoyama and settle pending issues one by one," with his party taking the reins of government in mind, Campbell replied, "(The U.S. government) is politically neutral." TOKYO 00001638 008 OF 012 The meeting was proposed by Okada and was realized because Campbell is interested in the DPJ's foreign policy. They apparently exchanged views on a fundamental review of the Status of Forces Agreement, which the DPJ advocates. On the same day Campbell also met with families of victims abducted by North Korea - Shigeru Yokota and his wife Sakie, the parents of Megumi Yokota, and Akihiro Arimoto and his wife Kayoko, the parents of Keiko Arimoto - at the U.S. Embassy. During the meeting Campbell indicated the U.S. stance of attaching importance to the abduction issue. (11) U.S. assistant secretary of state to "respect election results," emphasizes continuity of Japan-U.S. relationship MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) July 18, 2009 Yoji Hanaoka U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell held a news conference in Tokyo on July 17. He said that in case a change of administration takes place after the upcoming House of Representatives election, "We trust the Japanese people, and whichever party wins in the election, we will respect (the results)," emphasizing that there will be no major change in the Japan-U.S. relationship. He said that the Obama administration has confirmed its position of continuing with the U.S. Forces Japan realignment program, and "we hope that the Japanese side, whatever administration it will be, will promote this process." (12) U.S. assistant secretary of state meets senior MOFA, DPJ officials MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) July 18, 2009 Yudai Nakazawa, Takenori Noguchi U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell met the directors general of the Foreign Policy, Asian and Oceanian Affairs, and North American Affairs Bureaus at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) on July 17. It is believed that they discussed the Obama administration's nuclear deterrence policy and a "new approach" to make the Six-Party Talks function effectively in light of North Korea's recent nuclear test. Campbell also met Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada. In the meeting with MOFA directors general, the participants agreed that North Korea's development of nuclear arms and missiles "is a threat to the security of Japan and the U.S. and is unacceptable." They reconfirmed close cooperation on this issue. Meanwhile, Okada said at his meeting with Campbell that with regard to the revision of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), "We will not put all the pending issues on the negotiating table at once," indicating that priority will be given to building a relationship of trust between U.S. President Barack Obama and DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama. (13) DPJ Secretary General Okada calls for discussing interpretation TOKYO 00001638 009 OF 012 of three nonnuclear principles NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) July 19, 2009 Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Katsuya Okada on July 18 gave a speech in Yokkaichi City, Mie Prefecture. In the speech he indicated his perception that in the event of the DPJ taking the reins of government, it would discuss the three nonnuclear principles, including taking a second look at the interpretation of those principles. He said, "We must discuss the interpretation of the principle that 'nuclear weapons shall not enter Japan' at a national forum and make a political decision in the end." Okada said: "The U.S. has stopped carrying nuclear arms on vessels other than submarines. Nuclear submarines do not make port calls in Japan." He stressed, "Discussing the interpretation of the three nonnuclear principles will not present a problem at the present point of time." (14) Agreement reached with U.S. to discuss nuclear umbrella regularly; Weighty theme for Japan as a victim of atomic bombing; Eventual violation of nuclear principles feared TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) July 19, 2009 A Japan-U.S. Security Subcommittee (SSC) meeting was held on July 18 between director-general level diplomatic and security officials of the two countries. The two sides reached an agreement to begin meeting regularly to discuss, among other matters, the U.S. nuclear umbrella over Japan. To what extent can Japan, the only country to have suffered an atomic attack, be involved in America's nuclear strategy? The matter is likely to be a key challenge for the Japanese administration after the forthcoming general election. As part of its goal of nuclear disarmament, the U.S. Obama administration is reviewing the country's nuclear posture. Striking a balance between nuclear disarmament and nuclear deterrence is a challenge. The Obama administration, which is aiming to break away from unilateralism, plans to carry out a review in collaboration with U.S. allies. President Obama regards the Japan-U.S. alliance as a cornerstone of U.S. security policy in East Asia. The President plans to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance in wide-ranging areas from the nuclear umbrella to measures to curb global warming. The U.S. government is eyeing a new Japan-U.S. declaration with an eye on next year which marks the 50th anniversary of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. For Japan, which has suffered an atomic attack, nuclear strategy has been a difficult subject to broach. Japan maintains three non-nuclear principles of not possessing, producing, or permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japan, while relying on the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The two countries have never specifically discussed how to use nuclear arms in a contingency. A senior Foreign Ministry said, "Once the nuclear umbrella is guaranteed, the argument calling for the independent possession of nuclear weapons will be contained." Meanwhile, a Defense Ministry official expressed his apprehension, "The matter might escalate into TOKYO 00001638 010 OF 012 Japan agreeing to the use of nuclear weapons." After the SSC, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell expressed his hope for talks with the next Japanese administration, saying: "Whichever party wins the next general election, we are ready to work together. U.S.-Japan relations are solid. I would like to hold close talks with Japan as a U.S. ally." (15) Agreement reached on regular talks on nuclear umbrella; U.S. gives consideration to discussion on Japan's nuclearization YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) July 19, 2009 Japan and the United States agreed during high-level security talks on July 18 to meet regularly to discuss the nuclear umbrella. Through such meetings, the government intends to seek information on a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) to be compiled by the U.S. government before the end of the year. U.S. President Barack President is showing a positive stance on nuclear disarmament, but in East Asia, North Korea has conducted nuclear tests and China is pursuing a military buildup and modernization policy course. President Obama announced at the Japan-U.S. summit in February this year America's commitment to defending Japan, including its nuclear deterrence. But concern still remains in Japan on whether the nuclear umbrella will actually function during a contingency. The upcoming NPR will be the third in U.S. history. Japan reportedly has not received detailed explanations of the NPR. A Defense Ministry source said, "We cannot rely on the United States unless it tells us how it plans to use its nuclear weapons." There is a possibility that the discussion in Japan on arming itself with nuclear weapons will gain momentum. The United States is apparently responded positively to Japan's call for regular talks on the nuclear umbrella in deference to Japan's domestic circumstances. (16) Regular Japan-U.S. consultations on "nuclear umbrella": U.S. gives consideration to alleviating Japan's anxiety; difficult to implement MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) July 19, 2009 Takashi Sudo The Japan-U.S. Security Sub-Committee (SSC) meeting of director general level officials of the two governments responsible for foreign policy and defense held on July 18 agreed to hold regular consultations on the "nuclear umbrella (extended deterrence)." This is meant for the U.S. to explain the Obama administration's nuclear policy in order to alleviate the anxiety of Japan, which has been shaken by North Korea's second nuclear test. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that the regular consultations will "confirm that the nuclear umbrella is strong" and will be held in the next few weeks. In anticipation of a change of administration in Japan after the forthcoming House of Representatives election, the U.S. also wants to put in place a mechanism for bilateral consultations. There have been concerns in Japan about the reliability of the U.S. TOKYO 00001638 011 OF 012 "nuclear umbrella" to counteract China's and North Korea's nuclear arms in the event progress is made in the U.S.-Russia nuclear disarmament talks under the Obama administration's new nuclear policy. Japan and the U.S. have repeatedly confirmed the "nuclear umbrella" at summit meetings and other venues. However, in reality, "there is no concrete picture of what happens next." (senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official) The regular consultations agreed upon this time will only be at the deputy minister level, and it is very doubtful if substantial discussions can be conducted between the U.S., a nuclear power, and Japan, a non-nuclear power. The U.S. will issue its "Nuclear Posture Review," which is the embodiment of the Obama administration's nuclear policy, by the end of 2009. The nuclear umbrella for the allies is a major theme in this document. Campbell, who participated in the SSC meeting, emphasized the importance of this gathering of four senior foreign policy and defense officials. This is supposed to demonstrate that the U.S. has sent its officials to Japan to hear out the views of its ally. There are concerns in the U.S. that North Korea's accelerated nuclear armament may lead Japan and the Republic of Korea to acquire a nuclear capability out of apprehensions about the nuclear umbrella in a domino effect. The United States' purpose in highlighting the regular consultations is to alleviate Japan's anxiety. A senior MOFA official who attended the SSC meeting says: "The operation of nuclear weapons is top secret for the U.S. While we will get a briefing, concrete discussions will be limited." A senior Ministry of Defense official also notes that, "Actual operation of nuclear weapons in an emergency will not be discussed." Although the format will be a consultation, in reality, the substance will remain a one-sided briefing by the U.S. for Japan like before. (17) Regular nuclear-umbrella talks: Japan, U.S. to share intelligence to strengthen deterrence capabilities NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) July 19, 2009 The governments of Japan and the U.S. will shortly launch their first regular conference to discuss deterrence, including nuclear umbrella. Amid U.S. President Obama promoting nuclear disarmament with an eye on a nuclear-free world, Japan aims to become proactively involved in the U.S. effort to review its nuclear strategy. The two countries at the envisaged talks will discuss sharing intelligence on the system of deterring proliferation with the use of U.S. strategic nuclear weapons and specific approaches to emergency situations, such as missile launches by North Korea. Japan also intends to ask the U.S. to brief it on U.S.-Russia talks on the signing of a new treaty replacing their Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty I (START I). Japan wants to have its wishes reflected in the work of renewing the U.S. report on a review of the nuclear structure, on which it is now pressing ahead. The Japanese government's stance is that it is necessary to maintain a nuclear deterrence. Meanwhile it praises and backs President Obama's active stance to move on nuclear TOKYO 00001638 012 OF 012 disarmament. Both countries want to jointly search for an effective deterrence system, by combining it with Japan's conventional weapons and missile defense. (18) Futenma relocation at least outside Okinawa: Hatoyama NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) July 20, 2009) Yukio Hatoyama, president of the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto),attended a town hall meeting held yesterday in Okinawa City, Okinawa Prefecture, during which he said his party, when taking office after the forthcoming election for the House of Representatives, would like to take positive action to relocate the U.S. military's Futenma airfield "at least outside Okinawa Prefecture" from its current location in Ginowan City in the island prefecture. Futenma airfield is to be relocated to a coastal area of Camp Schwab in Nago City in the prefecture, where an alternative facility will be built. "It's unreasonable to have Okinawa maintain its excessive base-hosting burden," Hatoyama said. (19) Government to propose joint quake drill in Indonesia at ARF YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) July 21, 2009 The governments of Japan and Indonesia have decided to call for a joint disaster-relief drill participated in by the military and private sectors at the next ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). They intend to carry out the drill in Indonesia based on the scenario of a major earthquake. The foreign ministers of the two countries will announce the plan at the 16th ARF. The drill will include search and rescue operations, medical activities, construction of a shelter, and transport of the victims. The aim of the drill is to promote understanding and cooperation among the countries concerned. The timing for the drill has yet to be decided, but Japan plans to send officials from the Defense Ministry, the Self-Defense Force, the Foreign Ministry, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Japan also intends to cooperate in drawing up a scenario and bearing the necessary costs. The ARF (participated in by 27 countries and regions) was launched in 1994 as an arena for discussing regional security issues. In recent years, however, the member countries are trying to turn the forum into a framework for implementing specific cooperative actions. The planned drill is part of this move. This May, the first drill based on the scenario of a typhoon was held in waters off Manila, co-sponsored by the governments of the U.S. and the Philippines. POST