DPJ TO TAKE SOFTER LINE ON ALLIANCE ISSUES?

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 001595 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL JA SUBJECT: DPJ TO TAKE SOFTER LINE ON ALLIANCE ISSUES? REF: TOKYO 1575 Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission W. Mike Meserve, reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) may be taking a softer line on U.S.-Japan Alliance matters, according to recent statements in Japanese media reports. In its October 2008 party manifesto, the DPJ called for a "drastic review" of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). With a DPJ victory in the August 2009 general election looking increasingly likely, however, party leaders appear to be toning down their press rhetoric and, in the case of the SOFA, are now only looking to "initiate" a review. Moreover, the DPJ's draft manifesto for the next election omits a previous pledge by former DPJ President Ozawa to halt Japan's Indian Ocean refueling mission. ¶2. (C) Recent discussions with DPJ members (reftel) confirm the media reports, with our DPJ contacts promising to maintain the U.S.-Japan relationship as central to their foreign policy, if and when they take over the reins of government. DPJ security policy expert Seiji Maehara remarked in a recent TV interview that it is "impossible" to make rapid changes to the U.S.-Japan relationship, that any changes would come over a "long period," and that our bilateral relationship is "the basis" of Japan's foreign policy. ¶3. (C) In spite of the DPJ taking what appears to be a more realistic approach on core Alliance issues, however, contacts in the Japanese government remain cautious. Japanese Foreign Ministry security policy interlocutors say that they doubt the DPJ's ability to revise its rhetoric so quickly, and they note, as an example, that because of the wide range of political viewpoints within the party, it will prove difficult to achieve internal consensus to continue the refueling mission. Despite what the DPJ is saying in the media and in private to the Embassy, government officials advise a wait-and-see approach, pointing out that even if the DPJ is victorious in the election, they may need to compromise on Alliance issues with left-wing and pacifist coalition partners. POST