Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO1539
2009-07-07 00:11:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/07/09

Tags:  OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070011Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4354
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
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RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
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RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 6323
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6001
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 001539 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/07/09

Index:
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 001539

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 07/07/09

Index:
1) Top headlines
2) Editorials
3) Prime Minister's daily schedule (Nikkei)

Security affairs:
4) Ruling parties to present special measures bill to the Diet today
allowing ship searches of suspicious cargo but draft skirts issue of
SDF's involvement (Yomiuri)
5) Maritime Self-Defense Force will not be able to inspect cargo on
North Korean ships under bill to allow ship searches (Sankei)

North Korea problem:
6) Japan working on members of UN Security Council to issue a
statement criticizing North Korea for recent missile launch
(Sankei)
7) Cabinet approves new measures for applying sanctions against
North Korea (Asahi)
8) Once signs of North Korea readying to launch long-range missiles,
Japan to deploy PAC-3s (Asahi)

Summit diplomacy:
9) Aso at the G-8 summit hopes to use his diplomatic results to
boost popularity a bit at home (Nikkei)

Crisis for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP):
10) Shizuoka shock: With LDP gubernatorial candidate losing to
DPJ-backed one, ruling camp seriously worried about upcoming Tokyo
assembly election (Tokyo Shimbun)
11) Prime Minister Aso denies that Shizuoka defeat will have any
impact on general election (Nikkei)
12) Aso finds himself up against the wall, attacked from all sides
as the LDP heads into the Tokyo assembly election, July 12
(Yomiuri)
13) Scenario for an early August general election collapse (Sankei)

14) Opposition camp wavering about filing a no-confidence motion
against Aso (Yomiuri)
15) LDP in readying its manifesto (set of campaign pledges) for the
Lower House election, includes promise to raise consumption tax
(Nikkei)

Articles:

1) TOP HEADLINES

Asahi:
41-year-old man arrested over fire at Osaka pachinko parlor after
turning himself in to police

Mainichi: Yomiuri: Nikkei: Tokyo Shimbun
U.S., Russia agree to cut nuclear warheads down to maximum of 1,500
to 1,675: Means of transporting warheads also to be restricted

Sankei:
140 killed in riot in Urumqi sparked by Uighur residents

Akahata:
Tokyo Metropolitan assembly election; Japanese Communist Party will
realize wishes of Tokyo citizens

2) EDITORIALS

TOKYO 00001539 002 OF 011



Asahi:
(1) Moves to oust Aso: Just replacing Aso will not do
(2) Prevention of global warming: G8 responsible for making
concessions to fill gaps with developing countries

Mainichi:
(1) U.S., Russian leaders reach agreement to cut nuclear warheads:
Progress toward achieving nuclear-free world
(2) PM2.5 standard value proposal drafted: Measures to reduce
suspended particulate matter should be taken concurrently

Yomiuri:
(1) Qualitative administrative reform: Adopt methods used in private
sector
(2) New IT strategy: Create society in which people can actually
experience convenience

Nikkei:
(1) Send powerful message to post-Kyoto framework talks
(2) Japan should display leadership in applying sanctions against
North Korea

Sankei:
(1) G8: Tighten figurative noose around North Korea with Japan, U.S.
playing central role
(2) Cut in enrollment limit of doctoral courses: Education
environment that produces experts needed

Tokyo Shimbun:
(1) Riot in Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region: Avoid bloodshed in
ethnic conflict
(2) We hope to see electric vehicles become the driving force to
contain carbon dioxide

Akahata:
(1) Diet should shed light on false political donations involving
DPJ President Hatoyama

3) Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei)

Prime Minister's schedule, July 6

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 7, 2009

09:41 Kantei cabinet meeting, followed by IT Strategy Headquarters
meeting
10:35 Met with Deputy Foreign Minister Sasae, European Affairs
Bureau Director General Tanizaki, and International Legal Affairs
Bureau Director General Tsuruoka. Sasae remained.
11:24 Met with Sasae, Deputy Foreign Minister Otabe, METI Vice
Minister for International Affairs Ishige, and MAFF Vice Minister
for International Affairs Murakami, attended by Deputy Chief Cabinet
Secretary Matsumoto and Assistance Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary
Hayashi. Met later with Parliamentary Secretary Minorikawa.
13:33 Met with Cabinet Intelligence Director Mitani, the Defense
Ministry's Defense Policy Bureau Director General Takamizawa, and
Defense Intelligence Headquarters Chief Shimohira. Mitani remained.

14:31 Met with Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura.
15:01 Met at LDP headquarters with Secretary General Hosoda and

TOKYO 00001539 003 OF 011


Election Strategy Council Deputy Chairman Suga.
15:50 Handled paperwork at his private office in Nagatacho.
17:05 LDP executive meeting in the Diet building
17:43 Met at Kantei with Matsumoto.
18:03 Returned to his official residential quarters.
19:17 Left for L'Aquila to attend G-8 summit along with his wife,
Chikako, from Haneda Airport.

4) Cargo inspection bill to be submitted to Diet today

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
July 7, 2009

The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the New
Komeito held a meeting of their project team yesterday on North
Korean cargo inspections and approved a government-drafted special
legislative measure for cargo inspections. The government will make
a cabinet decision today to adopt the bill and will present it to
the Diet.

The bill stipulates that the Japan Coast Guard and customs will
carry out cargo inspections. The Self-Defense Forces will be
involved within the limits of the current law. The government had
initially intended to specify the SDF's involvement for such
specific activities as gathering intelligence. However, the
government and the ruling parties agreed in their final coordination
to forgo the idea of specifying the SDF's role, saying there is no
need to specify in the bill what can be done under the current law.
LDP Security Research Commission Chairman Gen Nakatani, who
co-chaired the project team, explained to reporters after the
meeting: "The SDF will gather intelligence and will also carry out
warning and surveillance activities. The government will invoke
maritime security operations (under the Self-Defense Forces Law)
when the JCG cannot." The government is expected to invoke maritime
security operations when, for instance, the JCG needs to inspect
heavily armed ships.

5) MSDF barred from cargo inspections

SANKEI (Page 5) (Full)
July 7, 2009

The government yesterday presented a draft of a special legislative
measure (cargo inspection bill) to a project team of the ruling
parties. The legislation allows Japan to inspect the cargo of North
Korean and other foreign ships. The draft bill was approved. The
bill assigns cargo inspection authority to the Japan Coast Guard
commandant and customs superintendent. The Maritime Self-Defense
Force's role is limited to such activities as guarding JCG patrol
ships in its maritime security operations under the Self-Defense
Forces law. The MSDF is not authorized to conduct cargo inspections.
This is aimed at obtaining understanding from the leading opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto),which is cautious about using
the SDF, for its early passage through the Diet. The government will
make a cabinet decision this evening to adopt the bill and will
present it to the Diet.

The bill describes how to handle contraband seized in cargo
inspections. In concrete terms, the bill incorporates provisions
allowing Japan to scrap biochemical weaponry. In addition, the bill
also says items that cannot be stored will be sold, and the money
will be returned.

TOKYO 00001539 004 OF 011



The legislation purports to remove the "threat" in the international
community, including Japan, from North Korea's nuclear test and
other factors. If a Japanese ship is suspected of carrying North
Korean contraband and is asked by a foreign country to stop for
cargo inspections in international waters, the legislation
authorizes the government to issue orders to have the ship
inspected.

6) Japan to urge UNSC to condemn N. Korea

SANKEI (Page 5) (Full)
July 7, 2009

In the wake of North Korea's recent launch of seven ballistic
missiles, the Japanese government has decided to urge the United
Nations Security Council to release a press statement condemning
North Korea, a government source revealed yesterday. In addition,
the government, in yesterday's cabinet meeting, approved measures
suspending the transfer of assets to business firms related to North
Korea's weapons of mass destruction as requested in UNSC Resolution

1874. The government will restrict business transactions that are
suspected of being WMD-related transactions. The government will
also ask research institutions in Japan not to provide North Korean
nationals with nuclear-related education.

7) Cabinet approves additional sanction measures against N. Korea

ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)
July 7, 2009

In the wake of the United Nations Security Council's recent
resolution to impose sanctions on North Korea against its nuclear
test, the government yesterday made a cabinet decision to take
additional measures intended to prevent assets transferral related
to North Korea's nuclear development and its weapons of mass
destruction (WMD) programs. In response, the Foreign Ministry and
other government offices will call on banking institutions to pay
particular attention to the transferral of assets relating to North
Korea.

As a specific measure, the government will regulate transactions
that could lead to North Korea's WMD programs. In addition, the
government will also restrict anything like making payments and
receiving payments for designing and manufacturing. So far, the
government has only restricted transactions with those designated in
North Korea. In addition, the UNSC resolution seeks to make sure
that North Korean nationals do not receive nuclear-related special
education or training, so the government alerted universities and
research institutions.

8) PAC-3 may be deployed if N. Korea shows signs of launching
long-range missile

ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)
July 7, 2009

North Korea launched a total of seven missiles on July 4, and all
those seven missiles landed in waters previously announced by North
Korea. The Defense Ministry does not think such missiles would have
a direct influence on Japan's national security. However, if North
Korea shows signs of launching a long-range ballistic missile like

TOKYO 00001539 005 OF 011


the Taepodong 2, the Defense Ministry will issue orders to destroy
ballistic missiles. The ministry is also considering redeploying the
Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3),a ground-to-air guided
missile system.

Defense Minister Hamada, meeting the press yesterday, indicated that
he would not deploy the Self-Defense Forces for the time being and
would gather intelligence instead.

The Defense Ministry presumes that there will be physical signs,
such as setting up a missile at a missile site and injecting fuel,
before launching a long-range ballistic missile, according to a
senior official of the ministry.

However, North Korea, before its missile launch in April, had
designated a danger zone in the Sea of Japan off Akita Prefecture
and in the Pacific Ocean. The Defense Ministry therefore deployed
PAC-3 batteries in the metropolitan area and also in the
northeastern prefectures of Akita and Iwate. If North Korea prepares
to launch a long-range missile without designating a danger zone,
the government will likely be urged to make a difficult decision as
to whether or not to deploy the PAC-3.

9) Prime minister goes to G-8 Summit in Italy amid anxiety, hoping
to recover lost ground with "diplomatic achievements"

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 7, 2009

Prime Minister Taro Aso took off on a special plane from Haneda
Airport on the evening of July 6 to attend the G-8 Summit in central
Italy. With his back against the wall after the candidate supported
by the ruling parties lost the Shizuoka gubernatorial election, he
most probably would like to display some achievements in diplomacy,
which is regarded as his forte. With the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly
election, which will decide the fate of his administration, taking
place on the day after he returns from Italy, he embarked on his
journey leaving behind serious concerns at home.

Before he left on July 6, Aso told reporters earnestly at the Prime
Minister's Official Residence: "Japan is the one that first came up
with a clear direction both on the financial crisis and global
warming. This will be an opportunity to set the course for these
issues." He emphasized that he would also like to actively discuss
the North Korea issue.

Aso has made 13 overseas trips in the nine months since he became
prime minister, engaging in his style of "quantitative diplomacy."
He wants to make this G-8 Summit the culmination of his diplomatic
work and ride on this momentum as he dissolves the Diet.

In September 2002, then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made a
surprise visit to North Korea, resulting in a sharp reversal of his
support rates, which had dropped after the replacement of Foreign
Minister Makiko Tanaka. If Aso makes progress in the Northern
Territories issue at the Japan-Russia summit meeting (being held on
the sidelines of the G-8 Summit),this may serve to boost his
administration. However, merely participating in the G-8 will
probably have no effect on his support rates.

10) "Shizuoka shock" spreading in ruling bloc, cabinet


TOKYO 00001539 006 OF 011


TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Abridged slightly)
July 7, 2009

On July 6, the day after the ruling bloc suffered a defeat in the
Shizuoka gubernatorial election, concerns gripped the government and
the ruling coalition about the upcoming Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly
election and the House of Representatives election.

At a press conference yesterday, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda emphatically said about the
party's defeat in the gubernatorial race: "We don't regard it as a
prelude (to the next Lower House election). I don't think debates in
Nagatacho negatively affected it." Hosoda desperately tried to deny
the view in the LDP that confusion over the abortive plan to
reshuffle the party executive lineup adversely affected the Shizuoka
race and to draw a clear line between a local election and state
affairs.

In reaction to the LDP leadership, which denied any ill effects on
the Shizuoka poll while defining it as a national-level election,
junior LDP lawmakers who distance themselves from the Prime Minister
raised objections, saying, "Such a stance will draw public protests.
We should take the result humbly." Some cabinet ministers also
expressed uneasiness as if to point to political changes after the
Tokyo election, with Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Yoichi
Masuzoe saying, "Depending on how the Tokyo poll turns out, all
sorts of things could happen," and Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano
commenting, "Once the Tokyo election is over, I would like to think
carefully about what the LDP and the Aso cabinet, including myself,
should do."

An LDP member who served previously as one of the three top
executives predicted that the move to unseat Aso will intensify: "If
the (the ruling bloc) fails to secure a majority in the Tokyo poll
and if the Prime Minister still tries to dissolve the Lower House,
physical resistance will emerge in the party." An LDP executive also
expressed strong opposition to the Prime Minister's plan to dissolve
the Lower House immediately after the Tokyo election in which the
party could suffer a defeat.

11) Prime minister says ruling party candidate's defeat in Shizuoka
election "has no effect on national politics"; LDP worried about
Tokyo assembly election

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 7, 2009

Prime Minister Taro Aso commented on the defeat of the ruling
parties' candidate in the Shizuoka gubernatorial election to
reporters at the Prime Minister's Official Residence in the late
afternoon of July 6. He stressed that: "I think people who were
involved in the election campaign actually felt that (the candidate)
did a good job closing the gap (on the rival candidate). Local
elections do not affect national politics directly." Election
Strategy Council Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga also told reporters:
"This is not a vote of confidence on the administration but a
gubernatorial election in one prefecture."

However, there are growing concerns in the Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) about the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on July 12.
Deputy Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara said at a meeting between
the government and the LDP on July 6: "Many candidates in the Tokyo

TOKYO 00001539 007 OF 011


election are disheartened. Please cheer them up." Meanwhile,
Democratic Party of Japan Secretary General Katsuya looked back on
the Shizuoka election at a meeting with the secretaries general of
the Social Democratic Party and the People's New Party on the same
day. He said: "It was an election where our camp was said to be
divided. It is a miracle that we were able to do so well."

12) Prime Minister Aso making last-ditch effort for Tokyo assembly
election, aiming to keep right of dissolution

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Excerpts)
July 7, 2009

Prime Minister Taro Aso has his back against the wall as a result of
a candidate backed by the ruling parties losing in the Shizuoka
gubernatorial election on Sunday. Although Aso told the press corps
yesterday: "A local election does not have a direct impact on a
national election," stressing that the gubernatorial race loss has
no connection with his strategy of dissolving the House of
Representatives. However, there are strong calls from members of the
ruling coalition for pursuing Aso's responsibility for the loss.
Depending on the result of the July 12 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly
election, Aso may not be able to dissolve the Lower House on his own
accord.

"I will take charge of the office during your absence. Please go to
Italy with confidence," Chief cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said
yesterday to Aso, who was leaving for the Group of Eight (G-8)
summit. Aso told Kawamura: "I want you to include a report adopted
by the council to realize a secure society in a manifesto (campaign
pledges)."

"In an attempt to dissolve the Lower House soon after the Tokyo
assembly election, the Prime Minister wants to draft a manifesto by
that time," (Aso's aide).

Although Aso, while suffering from low public support ratings, was
able to attend the G-8 summit, the Tokyo assembly race is the
biggest hurdle for him to overcome. Aso appears to have acknowledged
the importance of the Tokyo election. He made an unusual request to
his cabinet members at an informal cabinet meeting held yesterday
after the regular cabinet meeting. He said: "I would like you to
stump (for candidates running for the Tokyo race) in cooperation
with (the Liberal Democratic Party Tokyo chapter) as long as you are
allowed to do so."

Aso believes that if the LDP-New Komeito coalition wins a majority
(more than 64 seats),the victory-or-defeat line, he will be able to
get the "seal of approval" for dissolving the Lower House on his
own. However, if the ruling camp loses the Tokyo election following
the Shizuoka race, there will be a possibility that not only Aso's
dissolution strategy will go wrong but also Aso will be unable to
resist the ruling parties' drive to remove him from office.

Sense of alarm rising in ruling parties

The ruling LDP and New Komeito have become increasingly alarmed
since a candidate they backed lost the Shizuoka gubernatorial
election. Since the results of the Tokyo assembly election will have
a serious impact on the next general election, the ruling parties
intend to reconsider their campaign strategy for the Tokyo race.


TOKYO 00001539 008 OF 011


Prime Minister Aso (LDP president) stressed in an LDP executive
meeting last evening: "We aim to win the Tokyo assembly election."
At the same time, referring to the illegal donation scandal
involving Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama's
political fund management organization, he said: "The DPJ, which is
faced with such a problem, does not have the capability to assume
the political reins." He indicated in his remark that the LDP would
strengthen its stance of pursuing Hatoyama.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura, LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki
Hosoda and other ruling camp leaders held a meeting at noon
yesterday in the Diet building. In the session, most participants
said: "Let's do our best in the Tokyo election." The participants
agreed to increase the level of campaign support by party leaders.

13) LDP's defeat in Shizuoka gubernatorial election foils Aso's plan
to carry out general election in early August

SANKEI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
July 7, 2009

Fumito Ishibashi

The candidate backed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the
New Komeito party was defeated in the July 5 Shizuoka gubernatorial
election. This has hugely upset Prime Minister Taro Aso's plan to
dissolve the House of Representatives in late July for a snap
general election in early August. Anti-Aso forces are set to unseat
the Prime Minister immediately after the July 12 Tokyo Metropolitan
Assembly election. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister, who was not able
to shuffle his cabinet or the LDP executive lineup, seems to have no
effective means to stop them. Amid this gloomy atmosphere, the Prime
Minister departed last night from Haneda Airport for Italy to attend
this year's L'Aquila G-8 summit.

Yesterday morning, Prime Minister Aso entered the cabinet ministers'
reception room on the fourth floor of the Prime Minister's Official
Residence (Kantei) ahead of a cabinet meeting, with a grim
expression. In the room, the Prime Minister nodded silently as
Education, Culture, Sports and Science and Technology Minister Ryu
Shionoya representing the Shizuoka 8th constituency rose to his feet
and bowed, looking pensive.

After the cabinet meeting, the Prime Minister said to the cabinet
ministers: "Shizuoka is Shizuoka, and the Tokyo election is the
Tokyo election. The Tokyo poll is up next. I want you to cooperate
with the Tokyo assembly to an extent that does not harm your
official duties. Let's do our best each time." The Prime Minister
also told the press corps that a local election would not affect the
national political scene. If (the ruling bloc) suffers a defeat
despite the mobilization of all cabinet ministers, calls to hold Aso
responsible are certain to emerge.

The Prime Minister initially planned to achieve victory in the
Shizuoka race after shuffling the cabinet and the LDP executive
lineup on July 2, and to announce Lower House dissolution during his
foreign trip.

This plan has completely fallen through. If he sends out a message
during his foreign trip, that might fuel the moves to unseat Aso.

The Prime Minister has even called off the usual practice of holding

TOKYO 00001539 009 OF 011


an informal discussion on domestic political affairs with the
traveling press corps during the summit.

The aborted plan of revamping the LDP executive lineup has ended up
weakening the power base of the party leadership. In a government
and LDP consultative meeting, held in the Diet building around noon
yesterday, Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda urged the members
present to remain alert so that no one would call for an early LDP
presidential election while the Prime Minister is on a foreign trip.
But the meeting was void of energy.

In compliance with calls from some former secretaries general,
Hosoda had planned on July 3 a meeting with former secretaries
general for July 8, but he has been forced to call it off.

Through this meeting, Hosoda apparently intended to contain the
early LDP presidential election argument. But such former
secretaries general as Hidenao Nakagawa, Tsutomu Takebe, Koichi
Kato, and Taku Yamasaki are clearly anti-Aso. Former Prime Ministers
Yoshiro Mori and Shinzo Abe expressed concern that the event might
end up causing an explosion rather than releasing some steam. Prime
Minister Aso, too, expressed his displeasure, and the meeting was
abruptly cancelled. This has exposed Hosoda's lack of competence.

14) Opposition parties differ on vote of no confidence on cabinet;
SDP, PNP want to shake up ruling coalition; DPJ does not want to see
Aso step down

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
July 7, 2009

The secretaries general of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ),the
Social Democratic Party (SDP),and the People's New Party (PNP) met
at the Diet on July 6 to discuss the submission of a motion of no
confidence against the Aso cabinet. While the SDP and the PNP
favored doing so at an early date, DPJ Secretary General Katsuya
Okada maintained a cautious stance. They agreed to watch the moves
to "oust Aso" in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and meet again
on or after July 13, after the outcome of the Tokyo Metropolitan
Assembly election on July 12.

The SDP and the PNP are keen on submitting a motion of no confidence
because they believe that Prime Minister Taro Aso's leadership has
weakened rapidly with the decline in cabinet support rates and the
LDP's defeat in the Shizuoka gubernatorial race, and this is a good
opportunity to shake up the ruling coalition. They also predict
that: "If the motion of no confidence is rejected, this will mean a
vote of confidence on the prime minister by the ruling parties, so
they will have to go into the House of Representatives election
under him. In case there are a large number of rebel votes, the
prime minister will probably dissolve the Diet." (senior PNP
official)

There were supportive views in the DPJ: "The prime minister is
probably unable to decide on dissolving the Diet on his own. We
should make a move at this time to create the opportunity." (senior
DPJ official)

However, President Yukio Hatoyama told reporters in Tokyo on July 6,
"I am not necessarily thinking of rushing the submission of a motion
of no confidence," taking a cautious stance. Okada also said at the
meeting of opposition party secretaries general that, "We will

TOKYO 00001539 010 OF 011


consult you when the time comes for a political decision."

The DPJ leadership is cautious about submitting a motion of no
confidence at an early date for the following reasons: (1) the
amendment to the organ transplant law is being deliberated in the
House of Councillors and (2) it is diplomatically undesirable to
make the prime minister face a vote of no confidence while he is at
the G-8 Summit. However, it also appears that the party takes the
position that "if the vote of no confidence results in the
acceleration of the moves to oust Aso in the LDP, the unpopular
prime minister's resignation will not be good for us." (senior DPJ
official) Furthermore, if the motion is rejected, this will result
in the boycott of proceedings in both houses of the Diet. It is
reckoned that, "There is no need for us to take on the risk of being
criticized for boycotting the Diet."

15) LDP drafts manifesto: Consumption tax hike to be considered once
economy turns around

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
July 7, 2009

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on July 6 firmed up a draft
manifesto for the next Lower House election. Concerning a future
hike in the consumption tax, a focus of policy attention, the draft
does not specify a new rate or a timetable. It just mentions that
the government will consider the issue once the economy turns
around. It also notes reform of decentralization, including the
scrapping of the current system of local governments shouldering
part of the costs of projects carried out by the central government,
and a restriction to the number of hereditary lawmakers. The party
will compile specifics before the end of this week. It, however,
said that it would not release the details until the Lower House is
dissolved.

"Substantially mention the efficacy of stimulus measures." So
saying, Prime Minister Taro Aso on the 6th at the LDP headquarters
ordered Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda and other party executives
to demonstrate the administration's capability to run the
government. He also said, "I want you to include policy measures
targeting young people." The party has decided to incorporate into
the manifesto a grant system to enable anybody to go to a
university, if they wish, and free child education.

Regarding reform of decentralization, which the Association of
Prefectural Governors has requested, the wording stating that the
request will be complied with as much as possible will be included.
The scrapping of the share of local governments in the costs of
projects carried out by the central government and a study on the
introduction of a doshu or regional bloc system will also be
incorporated. The proposals give consideration to influential chiefs
of local governments, indicating the LDP's desire to seek help from
them in campaigns for the upcoming general election.

Main items for consideration in LDP manifesto

Q Expand the grant system for those who enter college
Q Free child education
Q Abolish the share of local governments in the costs of projects
carried out by the central government
Q Look into the introduction of a doshu or regional bloc system
Q Introduce a restriction to the number of hereditary lawmakers,

TOKYO 00001539 011 OF 011


starting in the election after next
Q Consider reviewing the constitutional interpretation concerning
the right to collective self-defense.
Q Raise the consumption tax once the economy turns around.

ZUMWALT

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