DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/30/09

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 001474

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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/30/09

INDEX:

(1) Lack of unity in LDP; Aso denies replacement of three party
executives (Asahi)

(2) Gov. Nakaima denies he asked for 110-meter offshore relocation
(Ryukyu Shimpo)

(3) Dugong discovery not described in prelim report on environmental
assessment (Ryukyu Shimpo)

(4) Japanese-version Nye Report needed (Sankei)

(5) Simulation Report: No data suggesting alleged "deteriorating
public safety," "increase in crimes by juveniles, foreigners," etc.
- all media lies; Japan is still one of the safest countries in the
world (Sapio)

ARTICLES:

(1) Lack of unity in LDP; Aso denies replacement of three party
executives

ASAHI (Page 2) (Slightly abridged)
June 30, 2009

Set off by turmoil over Aso's plan to change the three party
executive officers, a rift has opened up even among senior Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) members and faction chairmen who have so far
supported Prime Minister Aso. Former prime minister Abe and others
suggest that Prime Minister Aso should try to turn the tables by
exercising the right of personnel management, but Diet Affairs
Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima, former chief cabinet secretary
Nobutaka Machimura and others are negative about Aso's use of the
right. While Aso is rapidly losing support of his party, the LDP
itself is also coming apart.

Members supportive of Aso and against change of executive lineup:
Give priority to unity, resigned to become opposition members

Former secretary general Bunmei Ibuki admonished Chief Cabinet
Secretary Kawamura, the prime minister's right hand, in the Diet
Building yesterday for the recent turmoil over replacement of the
party executive lineup, saying: "Don't make a fuss." Appearing on a
TV program on June 27, Ibuki also expressed his opposition to the
idea of changing the lineup, remarking: "With Diet dissolution just
around the corner, the party must move ahead with a whole-party
stance without changing the executive lineup."

Ibuki, Machimura - chairman of the Machimura faction - and Oshima,
all of whom are eight-term senior officials, have supported the
straying Aso administration. Despite falling public support ratings
for the Aso administration, they continued to say: "It is the prime
minister who should dissolve the Diet," distinguishing themselves
from anti-Aso forces, such as former secretary general Hidenao
Nakagawa.

However, Aso's idea of replacing the three party executive officers
was a total surprise to them. If the three top executives, including
Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda, are replaced, not only the three
officers but also members in the factions which the three belong to
will surely harbor dissatisfaction with Aso. In such a case, some

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might begin to call for changing the prime minister. Moreover, ideas
are floating of installing to the post of secretary general Election
Strategy Committee Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga, a close aide to the
prime minister, and Labor, Health and Welfare Minister Masuzoe, who
has a high profile but has not enough experience as a House of
Councillors member.

On June 25, when Aso indicated the possibility of changing the party
executive lineup during a speech at the Japan Press Club on June 25,
Machimura made a phone call to Aso, in which he said: "Meeting only
Mr. Suga is undesirable. You should not replace Secretary General
Hosoda. If that is the case, you might lose our faction's confidence
in you."

This remark is to indicate that if the prime minister replaces
Hosoda, who belongs to the Machimura faction, the largest faction
might stop supporting Aso. Machimura further told Aso: "It is the
prime minister who decides on when to dissolve the Lower House, but
I think it would be better to dissolve the Diet at an early date."

If Aso continues to delay the dissolution, moves to "dump Aso" might
become full-scale, and the LDP may be torn apart. A senior Machimura
faction member commented: "While being resigned to fall from power,
we may have to face the election." This lawmaker has already kept in
mind an "opposition party LDP," based on the judgment that it would
be better to quickly hold the election, rather than to see the party
disintegrate in midair.

Anti-Aso members against change of executive lineup: Call for moving
up presidential election

Former secretary general Hidenao Nakagawa thrust a demand with Aso
for his resignation in protest of his strategy of early Diet
dissolution. On his homepage, Nakagawa revealed his eagerness to
dump Aso, noting: "Dissolution despite dismal public support ratings
is tantamount to 'dissolution with desperation and assault.' I
absolutely oppose an early Diet dissolution aimed to contain moves
to oust Aso."

Early this year, Nakagawa revealed his anti-Aso stance, but at that
time, junior members refrained from joining him while just watching
the situation. But this time, Aso has already said that the
dissolution is in the not-so-distant future," Nakagawa believes that
junior members will have no choice but to rise to action.

In actuality, "Aso-dumping moves" never stop, as seen from the
activity by Lower House member Koichiro Shimizu, one of the
so-called Koizumi children, to gather signatures for holding a
confidence vote in the prime minister. A person close to Nakagawa
said: "There are few people who think it would be desire to hold an
election under Prime Minister Aso."

The view is gaining influence that Diet dissolution will be delayed
to sometime after the Tokyo assembly election as Aso remains unable
to replace the three party executive officers. A lawmaker close to
Nakagawa said: "The next reaction will come after the Tokyo assembly
election." Anti-Aso forces are aiming to prevent "dissolution with
desperation" until the current Diet session adjourns on July 28 and
to hold a party presidential election after the end of the session.

To front-load the party presidential election, approval from a
majority (216) of all Diet members and prefectural federation

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representatives is necessary as long as the prime minister does not
decide to step down. Lower House member Taku Yamamoto of the
Machimura faction announced he has already collected signatures from
108 party members. He is resolved to step up efforts to gather
signatures before the end of the Diet session.

Even so, if Aso suddenly decides to dissolve the Lower House, there
will be no time for a presidential election. A mid-ranking Diet
member said: "In such a case, I will carry out my own election
campaign, separately from Prime Minister Aso's campaign."

Now that the LDP is going deeper into confusion, more than 20
Koizumi children met at a Japanese restaurant near the Diet Building
last night. Former prime minister Koizumi also attended the
gathering and encouraged them by saying: "Don't rely on the party. I
would like you to work out (a strategy) by yourself and fight the
election independently."

Pro-Aso supportive of change of executive lineup: Driven into corner
with strategy of dissolution disrupted

Election Strategy Committee Vice Chairman Suga deplored the present
state of the LDP in a speech yesterday: "In the LDP, calls are
growing for an election under someone other than Prime Minister Aso.
That is really lamentable."

Although Suga is in his fourth term, he is viewed as the closest
aide to the prime minister. He has been in the forefront since he
was appointed as internal affairs and communications minister in the
Abe cabinet. His influence has been increasing remarkably.

Now that former finance minister Shoichi Nakagawa and former
internal affairs and communications minister Kunio Hatoyama, both of
whom are friends of Aso, have left his cabinet, Suga is playing a
key role, along with former prime minister Abe, in mapping out Aso's
Diet dissolution strategy. Suga and Abe also succeeded in persuading
Aso to decide to keep Nishikawa in the post of Japan Post president,
although Aso was in favor of replacing Nishikawa. Many party members
see Suga and others suddenly suggested the idea of replacing the top
executive lineup in an attempt to increase their influence. The idea
of "secretary general Suga" has also cropped up.

Not only anti-Aso forces but even factional chairmen and party
executives who have supported unpopular Prime Minister Aso have
begun to voice opposition to the idea of changing the party
executive lineup. Seeing their stance, an official who once served
as secretary general said: "Their opposition probably is stemming
from their sense of alarm that the post of secretary general might
be assumed by a junior member, like Mr. Suga. Lawmakers close to Aso
are still placing expectations on a "secretary general Suga." But
one cabinet minister flatly said last night: "Mr. Abe and Mr. Suga
have certainly lost in the game. The Aso LDP has been completely
ended. He is already a lame-duck."

Once Aso's strategy on Diet dissolution and personnel changes
collapses, Abe and Suga, who have given instructions on the
strategy, will unavoidably be driven into a corner.

(2) Gov. Nakaima denies he asked for 110-meter offshore relocation

RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 2) (Abridged)
June 30, 2009

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The Okinawa prefectural assembly met yesterday to hold a
question-and-answer session, with eight prefectural assembly members
from the opposition parties taking the platform. In the session,
Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima denied that he negotiated behind
the scenes with then Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura over
the offshore installation of an alternative facility for the U.S.
military's Futenma airfield. "I have never asked the government to
move it 110 meters," he stated.

This April Machimura told the Ryukyu Shimpo in an interview that the
government should approve the Futenma replacement facility's
offshore move within a range of 55 meters for possible changes to
the Futenma relocation plan within the bounds of an environmental
impact assessment. Machimura also revealed that in his
behind-the-scenes negotiations with the governor, he was about to
reach a settlement on revisions to the Futenma relocation plan
within the limits of an environmental assessment. On this matter, a
senior official of the prefectural government had explained that
Okinawa Prefecture sought two-stage revisions (within a range of 110
meters) but failed to reach a settlement with the government.

Meanwhile, Nakaima, in his statement on the government's plan to
carry out its environmental assessment, called on the government to
conduct a multiple-year survey of dugongs. This survey, however, was
left out of the government's preliminary report on its environmental
assessment. In this respect, Kenji Chinen, director general of
Okinawa Prefecture's cultural and environmental affairs department,
indicated his view, saying: "If the prediction and assessment based
on the results (of the environmental assessment) are appropriate, it
can be taken as the same as having substantially conducted a
multiple-year survey."

(3) Dugong discovery not described in prelim report on environmental
assessment

RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 31) (Abridged)
June 30, 2009

This April, the Okinawa Defense Bureau, an outlet in Okinawa
Prefecture of the Defense Ministry, sent in a preliminary report to
Okinawa Prefecture on its assessment of a potential impact on the
environs of an alternative facility to be built for the U.S.
military's Futenma airfield. This preliminary report, however, did
not describe the discovery of a dugong in waters off the coast of
Nago City's Henoko district, while it is described in the
Environment Ministry's fact-finding report and in the Defense
Ministry's environmental assessment plan, sources revealed
yesterday.

What was not described in the Defense Ministry's preliminary report
is the fact that a dugong wandered in the sea on March 7, 2005 from
the offing of Ginoza through the offing of Henoko for 7 hours and 11
minutes. This fact is described in the Environment Ministry's report
that outlined findings from its wide-area survey of dugongs and sea
weed beds from 2001 through 2005. Furthermore, the Okinawa Defense
Bureau's environmental assessment plan, which was sent in to Okinawa
Prefecture in August 2007, describes it, citing data from the
Environment Ministry report.

The Save the Dugong Campaign Center (SDCC) sent an open letter of
inquiry to Okinawa Defense Bureau Director General Ro Manabe and

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Environment Minister Tetsuo Saito for their explanations.

(4) Japanese-version Nye Report needed

SANKEI (Page 1) (Abridged slightly)
June 30, 2009

Keiko Chino, special reporter

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph Nye, known to be
well-versed in Japanese affairs, stated (on June 25) about Japan's
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) before the House Committee on
Foreign Affairs: "The opposition Democratic Party of Japan has
expressed skeptical positions about the Japan-U.S. security
alliance. (The current domestic political uncertainty and
realignment) could cause friction in the alliance." The Sankei
Shimbun reported this on June 27 as part of a dispatch from
Washington.


Nye's concern was expected. I, too, held concern in a different
sense on recent congressional confirmation testimony by Kurt
Campbell, who has been nominated as assistant secretary of state for
East Asian and Pacific affairs.

Campbell did not pose any questions about the DPJ or Japan's
political situation. Conversely, I sensed from Campbell's policies
and his replies a deep knowledge about, trust in, and discretion for
the Asia Pacific region, especially Japan.

In view of his predecessor, Christopher Hill, who failed in North
Korea policy, I thought that Campbell was perfectly cut out for the
post. But that is the very reason why I am concerned about Japan.
Can Japan really draw on this opportunity?

The next general election is close at hand. If the results of
opinion polls are true, a change of administration is also
imminent.

Focused only on a possible change of government through the next
general election, the ruling and opposition parties have almost
completely forgotten to discuss their visions for and the modalities
of the state. There have been almost no debates on foreign and
security policies. Those matters were skipped in the recent
party-heads debate. The DPJ's draft policies lack specifics as
well.

What are the policies toward the Indian Ocean, piracy off Somalia,
Futenma Air Station in Okinawa, and North Korea? If the continuity
of foreign and security polities is disrupted because of a possible
power shift, the United States' trust in Japan will also waver.
Tangible and intangible losses from it will be immeasurable.

The concern expressed by Nye is probably only the tip of the
iceberg. His concern can be paraphrased as public discontent with
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and public anxiety over the DPJ.
I believe this is the right time to consider a Japanese-version
Armitage-Nye Report based on Nye's concern.

The so-called Nye report, which is officially titled "The United
States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership" was issued
in October 2000 immediately before the presidential election. Ahead

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of an anticipated close race between the Democratic and Republican
parties, a nonpartisan study group consisted of Republican Richard
Armitage, Democratic Nye, and others sent out a message through the
report that whichever wins the presidential race, U.S. security
policy toward Japan will not change.

The Armitage report and "The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right
through 2020," which is commonly called Armitage Report 2 now form
the unwavering foundation of Japan-U.S. relations of the 21st
century.

Elections are unpredictable. Even so, Japan as a mature nation needs
to send the message that regardless of the results of the election,
the foundation of the nation's security policy will remain
unchanged.

Nonpartisan discussions are indispensable to serve as the basis for
security policy. Debates are underway in Japan. But in many cases,
they seem to be unilateral or complacent debates strictly among
like-minded members. It can be said that they have only a weak sense
of being involved with security affairs.

For a Japanese-version Armitage-Nye report, debates across party
lines and the process to formulate policies are essential, as in the
United States. The question is whether there is the groundwork to
support them?

Incidentally, the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management
(MIGM) established by the late Konosuke Matsushita for nurturing
Japanese leaders just celebrated its 30th anniversary. Of 237
individuals who completed the institute, 101 have entered politics,
70 joined the business world, and 39 education, research, or the
media. My expectations for the groundwork grew as I listened to
vibrant speeches and presentations by MIGM-trained opposition and
ruling party lawmakers and students during the anniversary event.

(5) Simulation Report: No data suggesting alleged "deteriorating
public safety," "increase in crimes by juveniles, foreigners," etc.
- all media lies; Japan is still one of the safest countries in the
world

SAPIO (Pages 12-14) (Full)
July 8, 2009

Koichi Hamai, professor at Graduate School of Law, Ryukoku
University

When did people start claiming that the public safety situation in
Japan is deteriorating? Certainly there are reports on vicious
crimes in the newspapers and on TV every day. However, few people
know anybody close to them who has been a victim of a vicious crime.
Has the "myth of Japan's safety" disintegrated? We asked Koichi
Hamai, who is an expert on crime statistics.

According to a survey conducted by the Cabinet Office in 2006, 84.3
percent of the people thought "Japan's public safety has
deteriorated in the past 10 years." The mass media, politicians, and
many learned persons invariably precede their statements with, "With
crimes becoming more vicious recently..." on the assumption that the
public safety situation has deteriorated. The "myth of Japan's
safety" which every Japanese person used to believe in has now been
replaced by the "myth of deteriorating public safety."

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This change came about as a result of two incidents - the subway
sarin gas incident in 1995 and the Sakakibara incident of 1997.

The subway sarin gas incident brought home the fact that crime,
which used to be "something that is surely happening somewhere, but
has nothing to do with me," is something that can happen in daily
life. It can probably be said that after this incident, the "myth of
Japan's safety" fell apart. Two years later, the Sakakibara incident
sparked people's apprehension about crimes, resulting in widespread
talks about the increasingly younger age of criminals and the
growing viciousness of crimes. Eventually, since the Okegawa stalker
incident of 1999, the "theory of deteriorating public safety" became
common wisdom.

The alleged evidence for this theory is the trend of cases of
assault and infliction of bodily injury and the arrest rate. From
this, it would seem that the number of cases is rising rapidly while
the arrest rate has been declining. Taking this at face value, the
impression is that the police have become unable to solve cases.

However, it is absurd to say that people could suddenly become
violent from a certain point onward. The statistics are obviously
irregular. The simple truth of the matter is that after the Okegawa
case, the police have put much more effort into helping victims and
have come to positively accept cases of violent crimes, so this has
pushed up the number of recognized cases.

In 2001, the random killing of children at the Ikeda elementary
school connected with Osaka Kyoiku University made safety measures
at schools a social problem. The kidnapping and murder of a
schoolgirl on her way home from school in Nara in 2004 extended the
scope of safety measures to encompass entire local communities.
Through media reporting on this case, people came to share the
perception that anybody can potentially become a victim of crimes.

Occurrence of murder in Japan is one-fifth that of the U.S.

A careful analysis of the available statistics shows that it could
hardly be said that "public safety has deteriorated rapidly." The
trend of figures on recognized cases of murder shows that murder has
been on the decline consistently since the latter half of the 1950s.
Furthermore, these figures include attempted murders, so the number
of genuine "recognized cases of murder" is even less.

Demographic data on the causes of death for "number of deaths by
homicide" and the number of children dying by homicide shows that
objectively speaking, the number of deaths by homicide - including
children - has been declining annually, even though there have been
active anti-crime patrol activities to deal with suspicious
characters on the assumption that the safety of children is at
risk.

It is true that 600 people are murdered in Japan each year, which is
an average of almost two people each day. Somebody gets killed
somewhere on any given day. However, this is an exceptionally small
number compared to the other advanced countries. According to the
"White Paper on Crime" (2008 edition),Japan ranks lowest among the
five advanced countries (France, Germany, UK, the U.S., Japan) in
terms of the occurrence of murders per 100,000 people, far below the
other countries. In the 2006 survey, the occurrence rate in Japan
was 1.1, with 2.6 for the UK, 3.0 for Germany, and 3.2 for France.

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The figure for the United States was 5.7, which was five times that
of Japan. Even in terms of the ratio of victims of violent crimes,
Japan was overwhelmingly low. However, such figures have never been
cited when discussing public safety problems in Japan.

Age of criminals not lower, but higher

When talking about the worsening public safety situation, people
always claim that the age of juvenile delinquents is becoming lower,
while crimes are becoming more vicious. However, there are no
statistics to support such a claim.

In terms of the age of arrested murder suspects, statistics show
that the number of persons arrested has continued to decline since
the 1960s and that the main reason for the decline is the drop in
the number of arrested young people in their teens and 20s. The
number of suspects in this age bracket declined sharply from 1960 to
1970 and has remained flat since then. It is obvious that these
figures contradict the mass media's fuss about the increase in
juvenile delinquency and increasing viciousness of crimes.

As for the younger age of juvenile delinquents, the so-called
"delinquency curve" statistics show a completely opposite trend.
These statistics shows the year of birth of delinquents aged 12 to
20 who were arrested and taken into custody for offenses. The peak
of the age of delinquency tends to be higher the more recently a
young person was born. This means that the age of juvenile
delinquency is becoming higher, not lower.

Therefore, the age of criminals is not becoming lower and crimes
have not become more vicious, and the current trend is expected to
continue into the future. The reason for this trend is the low birth
rate and the aging society.

From the point of view of developmental criminology, since the
number of energetic youth more prone to commit crimes is declining,
and the number of older people less likely to commit offenses is on
the rise, the overall trend in criminal activities is that the
occurrence of crimes will be reduced.

Along with juvenile delinquents, foreigners are also cited as
culprits for the deteriorating public safety situation.

The report issued by the Koizumi cabinet's "Ministerial Council on
Crime Prevention" in 2003 called for controlling crimes by juveniles
and foreigners in order to restore public safety in Japan. The
reasoning was: "The massive influx of foreigners has resulted in the
degeneration of Japanese values and morals" and "The dysfunction of
family and local communities has resulted in diminished morals among
children."

What is the situation. statistically speaking? The number of crimes
by foreigners is indeed on the rise, but overall, they are mostly
minor offenses, such as violation of the Immigration Law and theft.
Furthermore, in terms of the involvement of Japanese (including
permanent resident foreigners) and foreigners in robberies, the
proportion of foreigners among vicious criminals is very small, and
there is no basis for saying that this proportion is growing.

Of course this does not mean that Japan can be optimistic regarding
the issue of crimes by foreigners. There is no denying that the
police need to take special measures and this is indeed an important

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matter, but this is another issue.

"Theatrical reporting" making one passing case seem a constant
phenomenon

An overview of the crime statistics in Japan shows that there is
nothing to suggest that the public safety situation is
deteriorating. Why, then, are people worried about deteriorating
public safety?

I conducted a nationwide survey in 2006. To the question: "Do you
think there has been an increase in crimes in the past two years?"
the respondents were asked to answer both "in Japan as a whole" and
"in your local community." While about 50 percent answered that
"crimes have increased significantly" for Japan as a whole, the
figure was only about 4 percent for the local community. Most
respondents felt that "public safety in my community has not
deteriorated particularly, but the situation is deteriorating
somewhere else in Japan."

One reason for this phenomenon is media reporting. The Cabinet
Office's 2006 survey mentioned earlier showed that the sources of
information on public safety and crimes are: number one - TV, radio,
95.5 percent; and number two - newspapers, 81.1 percent, which are
way ahead of number three - conversation with family and friends;
38.4 percent. This means that people's perception that public safety
is deteriorating has been affected significantly by the message sent
out ceaselessly by the media that "crimes are increasing and
becoming more vicious" and "the police alone are unable to deal with
them."

The phenomenon in which there is a widespread impression that public
safety is deteriorating based on a few isolated incidents,
regardless of whether crimes are actually being committed, is called
"moral panic." This process begins when the media starts issuing an
onslaught of reports on similar incidents, sending out the message
that "crimes are on the rise and are becoming more vicious" and that
"the police are unreliable." On the other hand, when the culprit in
the incident happens to be a juvenile, the media cry out about the
"unfathomable darkness of his mind" and "moral degeneration." If the
criminal happens to be a foreigner, then they stir up the sense of
alarm that "they are coming after Japan." Specific incidents are not
reported as special cases, but are taken up as the symbol of the
society's abnormality as a whole.

However, if this were a sense of panic caused by a temporary spike
in media reporting, it should subside with time and be forgotten by
everyone eventually. However, the media have been dramatizing crimes
and building public opinion on them. The audience, who become
convinced, then turn their criticism to the government or
administrative authorities who seem to be doing nothing. As a
result, the administrative authorities take some stopgap measures to
be on the safe side in light of the criticism, and crimes are
perceived as a constant phenomenon and become a permanent fixture.
In other words, theatrical media reporting creates permanent social
"myths" out of transient issues. This is also what happened with the
"myth of deteriorating public safety."

The factors contributing to good public safety conditions in Japan
up until now are that delinquency is normally resolved by age 20 and
adults are less likely to commit crimes, and that social structures
such as the employment system make the coexistence of small

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businesses possible. Deregulation and structural reforms have
eliminated the good old Japanese tradition of "mutual help," and
this has not only made it difficult to rehabilitate juvenile
delinquents, but is also causing an increase in crimes by older
people due to poverty and social isolation at present. We should
think about what needs to be done to maintain good public safety
conditions in Japan based on facts.

ZUMWALT