YOKOSUKA ELECTION PROJECTION: LDP-BACKED

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 001426

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/J

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2019
TAGS: PREL JA
SUBJECT: YOKOSUKA ELECTION PROJECTION: LDP-BACKED
CONSERVATIVE LEADING

Classified By: CDA James. P. Zumwalt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ryoichi Kabaya--the 64 year-old independent
incumbent backed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),
Komeito, and Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)--will most
likely retain his seat during the June 28 Yokosuka City
mayoral election, according to U.S. Embassy Diet contacts.
Yokosuka City is home to the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet and
thus vital to U.S.-Japan alliance interests. Kabaya's
closest competitor is Yuto Yoshida, a 33 year-old independent
Yokosuka city assembly member, who will run strongly as
Japanese voters opt for youth and change. Mashiko Goto, a 49
year-old lawyer backed by the Japan Communist Party (JCP) and
Social Democratic Party, will not factor greatly in the race,
but his candidacy could intrigue voters who would otherwise
support the young Yoshida. Kabaya's victory would be good
news for the U.S.-Japan alliance and for matters pertaining
to U.S. base management, considering Kabaya's constructive
relationship with the U.S. Navy. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Ryoichi Kabaya--the 64 year-old incumbent backed by
the LDP, Komeito, and DPJ--enjoys a considerable advantage
over his chief competitors in the runup to the Yokosuka
mayoral election, slated for June 28. Yokosuka City has
traditionally voted conservative--a trend that benefits
Kabaya--and is home to the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet.
Kabaya, a former Home Affairs Ministry bureaucrat, enjoys
support from many LDP, Komeito, and DPJ prefectural assembly
members and Yokosuka City assembly members, and has a
reputation for providing stable leadership. Former Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose constituency includes
Yokosuka City, backs Kabaya "100 percent," claims Isao
Iijima, Koizumi's former executive assistant and an expert on
Yokosuka local politics. Iijima is certain of Kabaya's
reelection.


3. (C) Kabaya's stiffest competition will come from Yuto
Yoshida, a 33-year old independent Yokosuka City assembly
member who used to work for global management consulting
giant Accenture. Not surprisingly, Japanese media have
portrayed the election as a fight between the "old and
conservative" versus the "new and independent." An IT
wizard, Yoshida is young and energetic, albeit an unknown
quantity.


4. (C) Yoshida is benefiting from a wave of popular
dissatisfaction with the LDP and "politics as usual." His
youth and appeal for "change" will probably make the race
closer than some of the previous elections. In preparing
their respective campaign manifestos, both Kabaya and Yoshida
adopted practical positions on matters related to the U.S.
alliance and U.S. base management. Yoshida, however, wants
more transparency on issues regarding the use of Yokosuka as
the home port of the nuclear-powered AIRCRAFT CARRIER USS
George Washington. He has supported past referendums against
the George Washington, saying that the "people need a voice."
However, unlike JCP candidate Goto, Yoshida is not focusing
exclusively on the issue. He is devoting significant
campaign energy to key social issues, such as the economic
crisis, regional revitalization, child rearing and education,
Japan's declining birthrate, and services for the elderly and
handicapped.


5. (C) The race looks promising for Kabaya. Goto's candidacy
will likely siphon off votes from Yoshida, and Kabaya enjoys
broad support across the LDP and DPJ. A victory for Kabaya
would help maintain the existing constructive and cooperative
relationship with the U.S. Navy, which was essential in
rallying public support for the USS George Washington's
historic deployment to Yokosuka last year.
ZUMWALT