YOKOSUKA ELECTION PROJECTION: LDP-BACKED

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 001426 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/J E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2019 TAGS: PREL JA SUBJECT: YOKOSUKA ELECTION PROJECTION: LDP-BACKED CONSERVATIVE LEADING Classified By: CDA James. P. Zumwalt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ryoichi Kabaya--the 64 year-old independent incumbent backed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Komeito, and Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)--will most likely retain his seat during the June 28 Yokosuka City mayoral election, according to U.S. Embassy Diet contacts. Yokosuka City is home to the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet and thus vital to U.S.-Japan alliance interests. Kabaya's closest competitor is Yuto Yoshida, a 33 year-old independent Yokosuka city assembly member, who will run strongly as Japanese voters opt for youth and change. Mashiko Goto, a 49 year-old lawyer backed by the Japan Communist Party (JCP) and Social Democratic Party, will not factor greatly in the race, but his candidacy could intrigue voters who would otherwise support the young Yoshida. Kabaya's victory would be good news for the U.S.-Japan alliance and for matters pertaining to U.S. base management, considering Kabaya's constructive relationship with the U.S. Navy. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) Ryoichi Kabaya--the 64 year-old incumbent backed by the LDP, Komeito, and DPJ--enjoys a considerable advantage over his chief competitors in the runup to the Yokosuka mayoral election, slated for June 28. Yokosuka City has traditionally voted conservative--a trend that benefits Kabaya--and is home to the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet. Kabaya, a former Home Affairs Ministry bureaucrat, enjoys support from many LDP, Komeito, and DPJ prefectural assembly members and Yokosuka City assembly members, and has a reputation for providing stable leadership. Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose constituency includes Yokosuka City, backs Kabaya "100 percent," claims Isao Iijima, Koizumi's former executive assistant and an expert on Yokosuka local politics. Iijima is certain of Kabaya's reelection. ¶3. (C) Kabaya's stiffest competition will come from Yuto Yoshida, a 33-year old independent Yokosuka City assembly member who used to work for global management consulting giant Accenture. Not surprisingly, Japanese media have portrayed the election as a fight between the "old and conservative" versus the "new and independent." An IT wizard, Yoshida is young and energetic, albeit an unknown quantity. ¶4. (C) Yoshida is benefiting from a wave of popular dissatisfaction with the LDP and "politics as usual." His youth and appeal for "change" will probably make the race closer than some of the previous elections. In preparing their respective campaign manifestos, both Kabaya and Yoshida adopted practical positions on matters related to the U.S. alliance and U.S. base management. Yoshida, however, wants more transparency on issues regarding the use of Yokosuka as the home port of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington. He has supported past referendums against the George Washington, saying that the "people need a voice." However, unlike JCP candidate Goto, Yoshida is not focusing exclusively on the issue. He is devoting significant campaign energy to key social issues, such as the economic crisis, regional revitalization, child rearing and education, Japan's declining birthrate, and services for the elderly and handicapped. ¶5. (C) The race looks promising for Kabaya. Goto's candidacy will likely siphon off votes from Yoshida, and Kabaya enjoys broad support across the LDP and DPJ. A victory for Kabaya would help maintain the existing constructive and cooperative relationship with the U.S. Navy, which was essential in rallying public support for the USS George Washington's historic deployment to Yokosuka last year. ZUMWALT