DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/16/09

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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/16/09

INDEX:
(1) Move to oust Aso might accelerate, following defeats of
LDP-backed candidates in three mayoral elections, sharp drop in
public support (Sankei)

(2) Poll on public attitude toward politics (Tokyo Shimbun)

(3) Growing nuclear threat from North Korea: Full-scale discussion
of capability to attack enemy bases urged (Yomiuri)

(4) Foreign Ministry fears public opinion; Prime Minister must lead
the denuclearization effort without leaving everything to the United
States (Asahi)

(5) Financial Services Agency to call for thorough identity
verification in relation to DPRK sanctions (Nikkei)

(6) Editorial: Monetary authorities of Japan, U.S., and Europe
should give consideration to long-term interest rates (Nikkei)

(7) Warning about three anti-U.S. stances - Part one of series
"DPJ's risky 'fraternal' foreign policy" (Sankei)

(8) Japan must formulate security policy in context of relations
with Asia (Sekai)

(9) Prime Minister's schedule, June 14, 2009 (Nikkei)

ARTICLES:

(1) Move to oust Aso might accelerate, following defeats of
LDP-backed candidates in three mayoral elections, sharp drop in
public support

SANKEI (Top Play) (Slightly abridged)
June 16, 2009

The candidate backed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was
defeated by the candidate endorsed by the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) in the Chiba mayoral election, following the LDP-backed
candidates' defeats in the Nagoya and Saitama mayoral elections. The
LDP has also seen public support of the cabinet of Prime Minister
Taro Aso sharply dropping following the dismissal of Kunio Hatoyama
from the post of internal affairs and communications minister over a
dispute with between him and Japan Post. Aso has now been driven
into a corner. LDP members have already started moving to speed up
the party presidential election. If the LDP loses the Shizuoka
gubernatorial election on July 5 and the Tokyo metropolitan assembly
election on July 12, the "dump Aso" move might accelerate at one
stroke. There are two cards left for Aso; cabinet reorganization and
House of Representatives dissolution. Is there any secret ploy the
prime minister might use to break out of his plight?

Tokyo assembly election next month to determine administration's
fate

Attending an LDP executive meeting yesterday afternoon, Aso said
with a sad look: "Mr. Hatoyama's resignation is regrettable, but
postal service is a public asset, and it was necessary to bring the
situation back to normalcy in order to prevent the government and
Japan Post from being thrown into confusion." He then instructed
participants to prepare themselves to fight to win in the Shizuoka

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gubernatorial election at all costs.

In reaction to Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda quipping: "The
margin was narrower than expected in the Chiba mayoral election,"
Executive Council Chairman Takashi Sasagawa argued: "Even for local
elections, we should select candidates in a coolheaded manner. If we
put up a hopeless candidate, the candidate will be defeated even by
the rival who is neither good nor bad."

The outcome of a local election, in which local circumstances are
largely reflected, should not influence the outcome of a national
election. But it has already been reported that the LDP will have a
hard fight in the Shizuoka gubernatorial election and the Tokyo
assembly election. The DLP leadership is increasingly irritated at
the situation in which they remain unable to find a subtle scheme to
turn around the tables.

LDP Lower House member Taku Yamamoto set up a website of the
association to move up the presidential election yesterday and has
solicited views supportive of the frontloading of the election from
general party members. If the party loses the Tokyo election, an
increasing number of members of the ruling camp will inevitably
begin to say, "It is impossible to fight under Prime Minister Aso in
the Lower House election." That is why former secretary general
Hidenao Nakagawa, a leader of the anti-Aso group, remains unruffled,
just saying: "Everything should be decided after the Tokyo assembly
election," If the LDP suffers a crushing defeat in the Tokyo
election, Aso will have no choice but to stay on until the Lower
House members' terms of office expire in September, but there is no
guarantee that the party leadership will be able to assuage the
dissatisfaction about Aso in the party.

Some members have begun to call for significantly reorganizing the
cabinet and replacing the three party executives, with the aim of
stopping the tailwind for the DPJ after giving a boost to the
administration and then suddenly dissolving the Lower House just
before the Tokyo election.

If the Lower House is dissolved before the Tokyo election, however,
the Lower House election will be set for either July 26 or Aug. 2.
If the cabinet reorganization does not effectively work to surge
public support rates and if the LDP loses the Tokyo assembly
election, the party will face a stiff uphill battle in the Lower
House election. In addition, the New Komeito, which is confident of
victory in the Tokyo assembly election, is expected to raise strong
opposition even if the LDP comes up with this plan.

Asked by reporters last evening for his view of the recent sharp
decline of public support for his administration, Aso replied: "The
responsibility for the drop in public support rests with me. What I
should do is to properly implement policy measures as we have done
so far." Although the prime minister has kept silent about the
timing for Diet dissolution, only a few options have been left for
him now.

(2) Poll on public attitude toward politics

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
June 14, 2009

Questions & Answers
(Figures shown in percentage)

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Q: Which political party do you support?

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 30.6
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 33.4
New Komeito (NK) 4.6
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2.8
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 0.9
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.3
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) ---
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.1
Other political parties, groups 0.8
None 24.6
Don't know (D/K) + no answer (N/A) 1.9
(
Q: Are you satisfied with politics now?

Greatly satisfied 0.4
Somewhat satisfied 15.8
Not very satisfied 62.4
Not satisfied at all 20.3
D/K+N/A 1.1

Q: What do you think is problematical about politics now? Pick up to
two.

No future vision of Japan 17.2
Public opinion not reflected 27.0
Taxpayers' money wasted 63.0
Government negligence like pension record keeping flaws 29.9
Bureaucracy's excessive power 15.2
Politics and money 16.9
Diet malfunctions in political situation 14.8
Political parties and politicians are only playing to the gallery,
so they're untrustworthy 16.2
Other answers (O/A) 0.9
D/K+N/A 1.0

Q: What would you like politics to tackle? Pick up to two.

Economic stability, growth 43.9
Social security, such as pensions, healthcare, and nursing 68.9
Administrative, financial, political reforms 10.2
Job security 15.8
Diplomacy, defense buildup 6.4
Education 16.2
Declining birthrate 11.4
Global warming, other global issues 9.3
Safe society, such as food safety and crime prevention 12.2
O/A 0.3
D/K+N/A 0.7

Q: To what extent do you trust politicians now?

Greatly trust 0.5
Somewhat trust 22.2
Don't trust very much 61.9
Don't trust at all 14.3
D/K+N/A 1.1

Q: To what extent do you trust bureaucrats?


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Greatly trust 0.9
Somewhat trust 19.7
Don't trust very much 54.7
Don't trust at all 23.0
D/K+N/A 1.7

Q: To what extent do you look forward to the political parties now?

Very much 2.9
Somewhat 30.2
Not very much 51.0
Not at all 15.0
D/K+N/A 0.9

Q: What do you consider first when evaluating the political
parties?

Their leaders 6.1
Their lawmakers 6.6
Their images 13.7
Their actual results 21.9
O/A 0.3
D/K+N/A 2.3

Q: What kind of country would you like Japan to become?

A political power 1.1
An economic power 13.6
A welfare nation 33.2
A peace nation 34.6
A cultural nation 3.9
A scientific and technological advanced nation 5.2
An ecological advanced nation 7.1
O/A 0.3
D/K+N/A 1.0
(
Q: What do you think about decentralization?

Local matters should basically be left to local governments 71.1
The central government should control local governments to a certain
degree 24.0
O/A 0.6
D/K+N/A 4.3

(Note) The total percentage is over 100 PERCENT for multiple-choice
answers.

Polling methodology: For the survey, carried out by the Japan
Polling Research Institute (Nihon Yoron Chosakai),a total of 3,000
persons were sampled out of men and women aged 20 and over at 250
locations throughout the country on a stratified two-stage
random-sampling basis, so as to epitomize the nation's voting
population of more than a 100 million. The survey was conducted by
the Japan Polling Organization over a period of two days, June 6-7,
on a face-to-face interview basis. Answers were obtained from 1,921
persons, excluding those who could not be interviewed because of
their having moved away or being on a trip, or for other reasons.
The retrieval rate was 64.0 PERCENT . In the breakdown of
respondents, males accounted for 48.4 PERCENT , and females 51.6
PERCENT .

(3) Growing nuclear threat from North Korea: Full-scale discussion

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of capability to attack enemy bases urged

YOMIURI (Page 11) (Abridged slightly)
June 16, 2009

By Hidemichi Katsumata

Unrestrained actions by North Korea, such as long-range missile
launches, nuclear tests, and uranium enrichment, are continuing.
Discussions calling for possessing the capability to attack enemy
bases have surfaced to counter the growing threat.

Japan has relegated its security to a deterrence strategy called the
nuclear umbrella, which the U.S. extended during the Cold-War era to
cover its allies.

However, the trustworthiness of such a strategy has been greatly
undermined by North Korea's missile launches and nuclear tests,
which have been carried out repeatedly in defiance of warnings from
the international community.

As a result, Japan and the U.S. have introduced a missile defense
(MD) system as a shield to protect themselves from ballistic
missiles. However, there is no justification for putting too much
confidence in the system, because three of 15 tests on Aegis
vessel-based launches of SM-3 missiles failed to intercept missiles.
Even though the accuracy of the MD system will improve, as long as
there is even a slight possibility of the system failing to shoot
down missiles, it is important to discuss possessing the capability
to attack enemy bases to prepare for the threat of nuclear
missiles.

However, actually attacking an enemy base would not be an easy task.
This reporter probed into the Gulf War (1991),in which Iraq
launched numerous ballistic missiles, using data kept by the Defense
Ministry.

At that time, U.S. troops were monitoring Iraq using many military
satellites, including an early warning satellite that detects the
heat generated when a missile is launched, and imaging satellites,
which can detect objects as small as 15 centimeters square, to
destroy the ballistic Scud missiles that Iraq launched against
Israel.

However, since Scud missiles were fitted on launch platforms
converted from mobile trailers, even if airstrikes by cruising
missile Tomahawk or aircraft did not produce results, the launch
platforms were already gone by the time such strikes were carried
out. High-tech weapons, such as Tomahawks, reportedly worked poorly
due to clouds, rain, smoke, and moisture. Their performance was
insufficient when identifying targets or destroying them. At those
times, the Special AIR Service (SAS) of Britain rescued U.S. troops
from the predicament. They penetrated into the Iraqi territory and
guided precision-guided munitions fired by U.S. troops to Iraq's
launch platfroms by irradiating the moving launch platforms with a
laser.

What about the case of North Korea? More than 100 ballistic Nodong
missiles with a range of 1,300 kilometers that can be fitted with
nuclear arms are deployed in North Korea, targeting Japan. Many of
them are placed on mobile launch platforms. The remaining ones will
reportedly be launched from semi-underground silos built in

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hollowed-out solid bedrock. The difficulty of striking moving launch
platforms was provem in the Gulf War. Powerful bunker-buster bombs
are needed to destroy such bedrock. The infiltration of a special
unit must be considered.

Since there are so many difficult issues, it is impossible for Japan
to possess the capability to strike enemy bases on its own. It is,
therefore, necessary for the government to ensure that the U.S.
shares Japan's perception of the threat of North Korea's nuclear
arms and confirm that in the event Japan were attacked by the North,
the U.S. would retaliate without fail, based on the right to
collective self defense. In the meantime, both Japan and the U.S.
must speed up efforts to compile an operation program, premised on
attacking enemy bases. Such issues as role-sharing between the
Self-Defense Forces and U.S. forces will be made clear through that
process. This reporter believes that these are the only deterrence
measures Japan can adopt at present.

Regarding this issue, the government indicated its view more than
half a century ago that the Constitution is not intended to mean
that even if attacks by ballistic missiles, etc., are expected, the
nation should do nothing. This type of approach is considered to be
within the scope of self-defense. However, this issue has never been
discussed until this time in which Japan is confronted with this
worst-case scenario of North Korea starting to possess the
capability to launch nuclear missiles. How can the security of our
country be maintained? There is not much time left before an answer
has to be formulated.

(4) Foreign Ministry fears public opinion; Prime Minister must lead
the denuclearization effort without leaving everything to the United
States

ASAHI (Page 17) (Excerpts)
June 13, 2009

Soichiro Tahara, journalist

North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test on the morning of
May 25. It was the North's second nuclear test after the one in
October 2006. Furthermore, the country seems to be aiming at
launching a long-range ballistic.

The North test fired a long-range ballistic missile on April 5 in
the name of a satellite. The country also declared that the
Six-Party Talks were unnecessary and that it would reopen its
nuclear facilities and then conducted its second nuclear test. Why
does North Korea repeat acts that irritate other countries,
especially China and Russia, its supporters?

General Secretary Kim Jong Il is clearly hoping for bilateral talks
with the United States instead of the Six-Party Talks.

President Obama announced even before taking office that he would
actively pursue dialogue with all countries. This made Kim Jong Il
believe that Obama would approach North Korea at an early time. But
preoccupied with the Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan issues, Obama
did not pay attention to North Korea. Frustrated, Kim Jong Il
conducted missile and nuclear tests in order to grab his attention.

In response to the missile tests, Japan strongly called for a UN
Security Council resolution to impose sanctions on the North. But in

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the end, the Security Council adopted a nonbinding presidential
statement due to China's reluctance. All countries expressed anger
with the nuclear test, and a UN Security Council resolution was
expected, although China was likely to fiercely oppose the adoption
of strong economic sanctions. Attention was focused on how well the
United States would be able to persuade China.

But U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner traveled to Beijing
from late May through early June to hold talks with President Hu
Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao, and other Chinese leaders. If the U.S.
was to ask China to fall in step with other countries about imposing
severe sanctions on North Korea, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
should have flown to Beijing. The purpose of Geithner's visit to
China was probably to "ask" Beijing to purchase U.S. government
bonds and so on.

Around that time, Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg was in
Tokyo insisting that the United States, Japan, and South Korea must
play a central role in realizing an extremely harsh sanctions
resolution. This clearly conflicted with Geithner's act.

On June 10, seven UN members -- the five permanent UNSC members plus
Japan and South Korea - reached a final agreement on a draft
sanctions resolution on North Korea. It said, "UN member states are
urged to conduct inspections," an expression with no binding power,
in line with China's assertion. Member countries are also asked in
the resolution not to shift funds and assets leading to nuclear
development and also not to extend financial aid except for
humanitarian and development purposes. In other words, the United
States made major compromises to China.

In my view, the United States thinks that Kim Jong Il's health
condition is unexpectedly bad from information that Kim Jong Il's
third son, Kim Jong Un, has been picked as the next leader and that
the North conducted its latest nuclear test in connection with this
situation. I also think the United States remains unable to
determine the capability of Kim Jong Il, or of North Korea rather,
as the party concerned. If so, I think it is Japan's time to play a
role.

On April 5 in Prague, President Obama declared that the United
States will seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear
weapons, while referring to its moral responsibility as the only
nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, namely on Hiroshima and
Nagasaki. The declaration was epochal.

The United States is the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear
weapon, and Japan is the only country to have suffered atomic bombs.
That is why Japan and Prime Minister Taro Aso, by teaming up with
President Obama, should strongly call upon the nuclear powers for
denuclearization and nuclear abolition.

Simply put, North Korean nuclear weapons are not really a threat to
such nuclear powers and the United States, China, and Russia, but
are a serious threat to Japan. Furthermore, it is said that 150 -
320 Nodong missiles are in a condition to be launched at Japan at
any time.

In addition, Japan needs nearly 1 trillion yen to normalize ties
with North Korea for the economic recovery of that country. Well
aware of it, Kim Jong Il must be waiting for money from Japan.


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A Japanese prime minister flew to Pyongyang twice to hold long talks
with Kim Jong Il. Such has not been done by any other countries. I
wonder if it is right for Japan and Prime Minister Aso to leave
negotiations with China and North Korea entirely to the United
States.

I believe that Japan should hold talks with North Korea and that
Japan is more qualified than any other countries to negotiate with
the North.

Regrettably, there are no substantial talks between Japan and North
Korea at present. Why do the Japanese government and the Foreign
Ministry not try to embark on full-fledged talks (with North
Korea)?

When former U.S. President George W. Bush decided to delist North
Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism in October 2008, I asked a
senior Foreign Ministry official, "Isn't it a betrayal of Japan?"
North Korea had pledged that it would reinvestigate the fate of the
eight Japanese abductees it earlier announced dead without offering
any concrete grounds, but the country did not fulfill its
responsibility. That was why I asked that question.

In response to my question, the senior official cautiously said: "In
pushing ahead with talks with North Korea, the United States had two
challenges. One was to nail down the issue of denuclearization. The
other was Japan-DPRK relations, namely the abduction issue. But for
them, denuclearization was the main topic. Their stance was to
discuss the abduction issue as much as possible. They think they
have given enough time to Japan, I think."

In mid-January 2007 in Berlin, talks were held between then U.S.
Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill and North Korean
Vice-Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan. Japan had over one year since
then to hold talks with North Korea but the country did not do so,
and the United States probably lost its patience.

The official continued: "We of course tried to hold talks, but we
could not find prospects for holding talks in a way that was
acceptable to the Japanese public."

What do his words "we could not find prospects for talks in a way
that was acceptable to the Japanese people" mean?

What the Foreign Ministry was really afraid of was not North Korea
per se but Japanese public opinion.

Simply put, talks that are acceptable to the Japanese public are to
confirm that the eight abductees are still alive and to bring them
back to Japan.

Regarding that such is next to impossible, the Japanese government
might think that it is safer not to conduct full-fledged talks with
the North.

A senior official made an interesting account: "Prime Minister
Koizumi's visit to North Korea ended up working completely against
Pyongyang's plan and the Japanese delegation's wishes. Kim Jong Il
admitted the abductions of Japanese nationals and offered an
apology. He also apologized for the spy ships. The North also
allowed five abductees to return to Japan and presented data on the
remaining eight. They hoped that this would help ease Japan's anger

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with the North, thereby opening the door for normalization talks
with Japan. But in reality, Japanese people's sentiment toward the
North deteriorated. And Japan completely lost its confidence."

I think this is what really lies at the bottom of the Foreign
Ministry. Koizumi's trip to North Korea has been a trauma.

On May 19, Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone announced, "The
ministry's position is that the Japanese abductees are all alive in
North Korea." As long as Japan holds this view, North Korea will not
accept Japan's call for talks.

Japan should hold talks with the United States, China, and North
Korea. But in reality, Japan, fearing public opinion, remains unable
to enter into full-fledged talks with the North. It is disgraceful
that Japan effectively leaves talks with China and North Korea to
the United States.

The United States had information on the North's latest nuclear test
in advance. But regrettably, I understand that the United States did
convey that information to Japan. Furthermore, according to a
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) executive, China has rejected Japan's
request for telephone summit talks since North Korea's nuclear test.
And there have been no bilateral talks with North Korea.

Prime Minister Aso should fly to the United States right away to
learn what President Obama really wants to do with North Korea, and
then to visit China to hold talks with President Hu Jintao, and
finally to fly to Pyongyang to directly negotiate with Kim Jong Il.

(5) Financial Services Agency to call for thorough identity
verification in relation to DPRK sanctions

NIKKEI (Page 4) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009

At a news conference on June 15, Finance Services Agency
Commissioner Takafumi Sato said that in relation to financial
sanctions on North Korea, "we are considering asking banking
institutions to thoroughly verify identity and report suspicious
transactions without fail." With regard to sanctions on the DPRK, a
meeting of the G-8 financial ministers agreed over the weekend that
effective financial sanctions in accordance with the UN Security
Council resolution should be implemented.

(6) Editorial: Monetary authorities of Japan, U.S., and Europe
should give consideration to long-term interest rates

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
June 14, 2009

A meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Eight (G-8)
countries was held in Lecce, Italy, on June 12-13. A joint statement
issued at the close of the meeting noted: "There are signs of
stability in the global economy," in part due to the effects of the
fiscal and financial policy measures taken since last fall. The
appearance of positive signs for the global economy should be
welcomed, but there is also a new source of concern - the recent
rise in long-term interest rates.

In trade last week, the yield on 10-year government bonds, an
indicator of 10-year U.S. long-term interest rates, briefly surged

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to the 4 PERCENT level for the first time in about eight months.
The yield on Japan's newly floated 10-year government bonds also
marked its highest level in seven and a half months at 1.56 PERCENT
. European bond yields have also been on the rise.

There are two major causes for the rise in long-term interest rates.
One is a change in views among market players of the future of the
economy. In the wake of the outbreak of the global financial crisis
set off by the Lehman shock last fall, market players began to
harbor concern that the global economy might continue to sink deeper
into recession. Long-term interest rates also dropped sharply,
reflecting apprehension that the global recession could be
prolonged.

In the early spring, however, positive signs began to appear in
economic indicators of the U.S. and other countries. Also because
the U.S. took proactive measures to stabilize its financial system
and provide financial assistance to leading automakers, the
observation that the global economy has emerged from its worst
period has been gradually spreading.

The second cause is the issuance of large amounts of government
bonds to cover the decrease in tax revenues and the increase in
government disbursements to cope with the economy's downward tumble.
Not only Japan but also the U.S. and European countries have floated
large amounts of government bonds, so some are worrying about a
possible downgrade of bonds. The recent rise in interest rates stems
from both positive and negative factors - economic turnaround and
deteriorated balance between supply and demand as a result of large
amounts of government bonds issued and concerns about future
financial conditions.

Since last fall, various countries have increased government
spending to prevent the economy from further worsening. This was
proper policy coordination. Even so, we should interpret the recent
rise of long-term interest rates as a message from the market
warning that unless efforts are made to restore fiscal health even
after the economy perks up, it will be dangerous.

The joint statement at the G-8 meeting referred to the need for
considering exit strategies for winding down extraordinary policy
measures. The G-8 countries supposedly took this warning from the
market into consideration.

The global economy is emerging from its worst period, but it has yet
to return to a recovery track. The labor markets of Japan and the
U.S. are still reeling, and the U.S. and Europe have not completely
resolved their financial system problems. When exit strategies are
considered, full consideration must be also be given to economic
conditions. It is imperative to accurately read the messages sent by
the market.

(7) Warning about three anti-U.S. stances - Part one of series
"DPJ's risky 'fraternal' foreign policy"

SANKEI (Pages 1, 3) (Full)
June 16, 2009

"If the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) presents all its policies at
once, they might be perceived by the U.S. Congress and the Obama
administration as anti-U.S. You should be careful."


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The word "anti-U.S." resounded in the quiet room like an emergency
alarm. This was at a meeting between senior DPJ officials and U.S.
experts on defense and security who are knowledgeable about Japan on
the morning of December 19 at a room in the Imperial Hotel in
downtown Tokyo.

Participants from the DPJ included (then) Secretary General Yukio
Hatoyama, (then) Deputy President Naoto Kan, and (then) Vice
Presidents Katsuya Okada and Seiji Maehara. Two heavyweights
affiliated with the U.S. Democratic Party, former Assistant
Secretary of Defense Joseph Nye and John Hamre, president of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) (former deputy
secretary of defense); former National Security Council director for
Asia Michael Green, who was in charge of policy toward Japan during
the former Republican Bush administration; and former Assistant
Secretary of State James Kelly attended from the U.S. side.

Unclear picture of the future

Nye, who was the first to issue the "warning" about the DPJ being
seen as "anti-U.S.," stared at Hatoyama, Kan, and his colleagues and
raised three specific issues, instead of issuing them a yellow
card:

(1) Immediate discontinuation of the Maritime Self-Defense Force's
(MSDF) refueling support mission in the Indian Ocean;
(2) Review of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) ;
(3) Scrapping of the U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) realignment plans,
including the relocation of U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam and
the relocation of Futenma AIR Station

All these were part of the DPJ's campaign pledges, which had been
included in its latest policy collection, the "Policy Index 2008."

According to a participant in the meeting, Nye stressed: "If you
don't want to be perceived as anti-American, you should discuss
specific issues after presenting a total package of proposals for
Japan-U.S. cooperation." While he talked calmly, it was obvious that
that his opinion incorporated a warning to the DPJ for its anti-U.S.
stances.

The problem, though, is that no one has any idea what the future of
the Japan-U.S. alliance might be under a DPJ administration.

Kan and his colleagues explained, "The Japan-U.S. relationship will
remain the cornerstone of Japan's foreign and security policy under
a DPJ administration." The meeting ended in about 45 minutes. Yet,
six months after that, a participant on the U.S. side still asks:
"Would it really be all right if the DPJ were to run the Japanese
government?"

Leaving the umbrella partially

This individual has been asking Hatoyama, Okada and others every
time he met them after the December meeting about what contribution
could Japan make on the Afghan issue, which is of great importance
to the Obama administration. Yet, the response from Hatoyama and the
others, according to that person, "has been mostly vague, and it
remains unclear what they intend to do."

Not only is the future picture of the alliance unclear; there are
even dangerous elements in the DPJ's plans for a new administration

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that may destroy the alliance from its very foundation.

In the July issue of Sekai, Okada talks about "partial coverage by
the U.S. nuclear umbrella." He asserts that Japan should: (1) make
the U.S. pledge it will not use nuclear weapons for a preemptive
strike; (2) build a consensus on making the use of nuclear weapons
against non-nuclear states illegal; and (3) present a framework for
a denuclearized zone in Northeast Asia.

Since the war, Japan has consistently relied on the expanded
deterrence (nuclear umbrella) provided by the U.S. as the ultimate
means to guarantee its security and survival. The U.S.-Japan
Security Treaty (security alliance) incorporates all the political,
foreign affairs, military, and security aspects of this
relationship. However, with North Korea's repeated nuclear tests,
there is indeed a growing nuclear threat from North Korea and
China.

The reason why Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been
emphasizing that the U.S. "guarantees Japan's security" each time
North Korea conducts a nuclear or missile test is because she wanted
to maintain the credibility of the nuclear umbrella. What does Okada
mean by venturing out from the nuclear umbrella at a time the
umbrella for Japan and the ROK needs to be reinforced?

Disintegration of Japan-U.S. alliance possible

A defense expert pointed out: "Expanded deterrence is the very
essence of the Japan-U.S. security arrangements. If you are in favor
of such, you should accept the Security Treaty, if not, Japan should
embark on its own nuclear armament or opt for unarmed neutrality."
The expert warned that the very foundation of the Japan-U.S.
security arrangements may be jeopardized. What lies ahead if Japan
tries to leave the nuclear umbrella after the refueling operation in
the Indian Ocean is discontinued, the USFJ realignment plans are
scrapped, and SOFA is revised? One thing for sure is that the
Japan-U.S. alliance will disintegrate.

The birth of a genuine anti-U.S. administration that will implement
the "set of three anti-U.S. stances" that Nye had warned about is
fast approaching.

Let us take a closer look at the foreign and security policies of
the DPJ under Hatoyama, whose slogan is "fraternity (yuai)."

The United States' concern is that it is unable to tell whether a
new Hatoyama administration will adopt the "Tomiichi Murayama model"
or the "Roh Moo Hyun model."

After becoming prime minister, Murayama, who was chairman of the
Japan Socialist Party, made statements in the Diet accepting the
Self-Defense Forces (SDF) as constitutional and vowing to maintain
the Japan-U.S. security arrangements. Making an about-face from his
previous position that the SDF was unconstitutional, he came to
recognize the Japan-U.S. alliance as the cornerstone of Japan's
foreign policy.

On the other hand, the late President Roh Moo Hyun became
increasingly populist, anti-U.S., and leftist after his
inauguration. Alarmed by this, the U.S. tried to prepare for a
setback in the U.S.-ROK alliance by subtle adjustments in the U.S.
military strategy and troop deployment through the realignment of

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the U.S. forces in Korea.

Overall picture unclear

The main reason why it is difficult to tell whether the DPJ will
shift from its anti-U.S. stance or reinforce this tendency is
because of the party's foreign and security affairs policies. The
policies, says James Przystup, senior research fellow at the
National Defense University, are "as many as there are party members
and are incoherent: You cannot really tell which will be
implemented."

Even Seiji Maehara, one of the DPJ's foreign and security policy
experts, admits that the overall picture is unclear: "From the
American point of view, they know Maehara; they know (Akihisa)
Nagashima; they know Okada; but they do not know the DPJ."

Maehara and Nagashima are close to Assistant Secretary of
State-designate Kurt Campbell and other experts on Japan who believe
that the alliance is important. Their picture of the alliance is
slightly different from Hatoyama's and Kan's conception of the
Japan-U.S. security arrangements. They understand the significance
of the nuclear umbrella and differ with Okada on the "framework for
a denuclearized zone." In addition to the differences between
Maehara and Nagashima on the one hand and Okada on the other,
Hatoyama and Kan also differ in their policies.

Hatoyama once called for a "security treaty without permanent
stationing of American troops" and presented a plan for relocating
most of the U.S. forces now in Japan outside of the country. He
would ask them to come to Japan's rescue only in an emergency. Kan
has also advocated a relocation of U.S. military bases to other
countries.

Foreign affairs commentator Yukio Okamoto is very critical of such
thinking. He issues a strong warning: "This is like telling your
wife I don't want to see you anymore and driving her out of the
house, but then ordering her to 'come back and take care of me when
I get sick'." "Such an attitude of taking only the good part will
damage trust between Japan and the U.S."

Meanwhile, a case study of what would happen if Hatoyama became
prime minister is being discussed in the DPJ.

Appearing on a TV program in late May, Keiichiro Asao, defense
minister in the DPJ's "Next Cabinet", said: "Based on the campaign
pledges, he will first announce the immediate discontinuation of the
refueling operations in the Indian Ocean. Second, the USFJ
realignment plans, including Futenma relocation, will be scrapped."
When asked about the DPJ administration's policy on the refueling
mission, he responded immediately: "We will withdraw (the MSDF)."

Nicholas Szechenyi, deputy director of the CSIS Japan chair,
predicts that "it will be very unfortunate for Japan and the U.S."
if the Hatoyama administration stops the refueling mission and
abandons the USFJ realignment plans.

Giving up on Japan?

There is also the question of the SOFA and host nation support.
Okada told the press at a news conference on June 12: "In addition
to the location of U.S. military bases, which is a legacy of the

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postwar regime, other bilateral problems exist, such as the need to
review the SOFA and host nation support." A drastic review of SOFA
and host nation support is a major election pledge of the DPJ.

However, there is a long history behind the operation of the SOFA
and the providing of host nation support. Since this also affects
relations with NATO, the ROK, and other allies, U.S. government
officials and people like Michael Green are seriously concerned.

No matter how hard the DPJ advocates a "true Japan-U.S. alliance" in
its policy manifesto, it is not hard to imagine how the U.S. side
will react in this context. One can safely say that the "set of
three anti-U.S. stances" -- cancelling the refueling mission,
revising the SOFA, and scrapping USFJ realignment -- are key to
gauging the DPJ's true intent regarding the future of the bilateral
alliance.

Yuki Tatsumi, who looks at the bilateral relationship from a think
tank in the U.S., points out that his most serious concern about a
DPJ administration taking over in Japan is that: "They have not
thought seriously about what the option of independence from the
U.S. really means."

The U.S. is promoting greater strategic cooperation with countries
in Asia and the Pacific other than Japan, such as the ROK,
Australia, and Singapore. While the possibility of the U.S. giving
up on Japan and strengthening relations with other allies and
cooperative countries instead is not high, if Japan remains
complacent in thinking "it is impossible for the Japan-U.S. alliance
to go away," the U.S. may indeed end up giving up on Japan. In that
case, a G-2 framework consisting of the U.S. and China may emerge.

What Tatsumi is talking about is precisely the "structure of
dependence (amae-kouzou)" on the U.S. The DPJ's presumptuous
attitude and its self-righteous security policy have made the
likelihood of the alliance disintegrating from the Japanese side
stronger than ever.

(8) Japan must formulate security policy in context of relations
with Asia

SEKAI (Excerpts)
July, 2009

Interview with Katsuya Okada, Lower House member and DPJ secretary
general:

Signs of spring appearing for nuclear disarmament

-- Mr. Okada, you have discussed as a lawmaker the issue of nuclear
disarmament, and the Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) Diet Members
League to Promote Nuclear Disarmament, which you chair, has
announced a plan for a treaty to make Northeast Asia a
nuclear-weapons free zone.

President Barack Obama said in a major speech in Prague on April 5:
"We must realize a world free from nuclear weapons. As the only
nuclear power that has used nuclear weapons, the U.S. has a moral
responsibility to address the challenge of nuclear abolition." What
do you think about his speech?

Okada: Because President Obama in the past has referred to the

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nuclear issue at every crucial juncture, I had the impression that
he must be interested in that problem, in contrast to previous
presidents, such as George W. Bush. After India and Pakistan
conducted nuclear tests in 1998, moves to eliminate nuclear weapons
went into hibernation but I see signs of the start of spring finally
appearing.

President Obama has said the U.S. will resume negotiations with
Russia before the First Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START1),
signed in 1991, loses effect this December. In 2007, former U.S.
political or military leaders, such as Kissinger, Nunn, Shultz, and
Perry, called on the international community to promote the complete
elimination of nuclear weapons. Their joint call drew much attention
as a major U.S. policy switch. Obama's statement is an extension of
that trend. I feel that a new trend different than anything before
has been created in the U.S. and that President Obama has solidified
this trend.

-- The Japanese government has expressed its welcome of the new U.S.
policy and its willingness to offer cooperation, but at the same
time, it has expressed its unwillingness to see the U.S. nuclear
deterrent will weaken.

Okada: In an earlier Budget Committee meeting, when I asked Prime
Minister Aso for his view about Obama's Prague speech, he replied:
"It was the most impressive speech I have ever heard." I, too,
praised it, but I then quoted the foreign minister and the Foreign
Ministry as saying in a Diet reply, as well as in a report, that it
would not be desirable if the U.S. announced a policy of no
preemptive nuclear strikes because that would undermine nuclear
deterrence. I pointed out the inconsistency in what the ministry was
saying. In short, when it comes to specific arguments, the prime
minister remains unresponsive.

The Japanese government has also advocated nuclear disarmament and
nonproliferation. But it only presented a resolution calling for
abolition of nuclear weapons to the United Nations, and has made no
further efforts. The government is not eager to actually take any
action.

Moreover, when the Bush administration adopted a policy of
distancing itself from nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation
efforts, Japan did not offer any advice or views. This time, Japan
has only echoed President Obama's call for nuclear disarmament. Such
a stance naturally tends to evoke the criticism that the government
has just blindly followed U.S. policy.

Nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation should be a key element in
Japan's foreign policy. Some people are worrying about how Japan has
been seen in the international community. In order to brush off such
concern, Japan should present its own ideas. I think Japan should
make three proposals: (1) The U.S. and other nuclear powers should
declare they will not launch a preemptive strike; (2) agreement
should be reached on the view that a nuclear strike on countries
having no nuclear weapons is illegal; and (3) a nuclear-free zone
should be established in Northeast Asia.

-- When Japan criticized India's nuclear test, India claimed that
Japan, which has been protected under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, has
no right to criticize it. Japan should take the initiative in
promoting the elimination of nuclear weapons worldwide, but Japan
has to depend on the nuclear umbrella. This situation is certainly

TOKYO 00001357 016 OF 020


inconsistent.

Okada: Even if the U.S. makes a "no first use" declaration, it does
not mean that Japan will be placed outside the scope of the
umbrella. Under the situation in which nuclear weapons actually
exist in the world, we naturally feel anxious of a possible removal
of the umbrella.

I have advocated Japan possibly being placed under partial coverage
of the umbrella, but I have never said that Japan should not
counterattack if it unfortunately comes under nuclear attack. The
option of counterattack should be left as a guarantee. So I want you
to understand that I have not made only idealistic suggestions.

-- North Korea's nuclear and missile development programs are
considered to be a major threat to Japan. The DPRK fired a rocket
(over Japan) on April 5 and conducted a second nuclear test on May

25. These moves generated calls in Japan for discussing preemptive
strike and enemy base-strike options. Is the concept of a
nuclear-free zone in Northeast Asia an alternative to discussing
these options?

Okada: North Korea's nuclear test, which runs counter to the trend
in the international community of building a nuclear-free world, is
extremely regrettable. UN Security Council members need to discuss
this problem and take joint steps against North Korea, going further
than what they have done so far. In dealing with North Korea,
however, I do not think the nuclear umbrella is absolutely
necessary. Conventional weapons will probably be enough. Instead,
China's nuclear threat is the premise when discussing the nuclear
umbrella.

North Korea's scrapping of its nuclear programs is the main
precondition for the Northeast Asia nuclear-free zone concept, but a
post-nuclear abolition vision has yet to be laid out. That is a
problem. It is necessary to have North Korea promise to denuclearize
itself and the U.S. and China promise not to use nuclear weapons.
Under this concept, Japan, South Korea and North Korea, which are in
the region, as well as the U.S., China and Russia, which are nuclear
powers located near the region, would conclude a nuclear-free zone
treaty. The countries in the region would promise not to test,
possess and use nuclear weapons. The three nuclear powers would
promise not to use nuclear weapons or pose a nuclear threat against
the countries in the region.

If the UNSC pressures North Korea to renounce its nuclear ambitions
without presenting a vision of what would happen North Korea's
denuclearization, it is unconceivable that it will meekly
acquiesce.

A number of nuclear-free zone treaties exist in Africa, South
Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and many other regions in the
world. If more nuclear-free zones are set up and if these areas are
linked to each other and establish an encircling net around the
nuclear powers, it will become possible to apply pressure to the
nuclear powers to scrap their nuclear arms.

Consider security policy in context of relations with Asia

-- In your book "Aiming for a change of government," you reiterated
your determination to establish a government totally different from
that of the Liberal Democratic Party. You promised to give priority

TOKYO 00001357 017 OF 020


to the interests of ordinary citizens, taxpayers and consumers in
mapping out policies. You also promised to give more shape to the
principles in the Constitution, such as popular sovereignty, respect
for basic human rights, and pacifism. Based on this stance, where
will you place emphasis in formulating a security policy for the
next generation?

Okada: Although I am aware that some say if the DPJ government takes
over political power, the alliance will be shaken, our party does
place emphasis on the Japan-U.S. alliance. But since the two
countries have their own national interests, they need to coordinate
views. I do not think that Japan always needs to fall in step with
the U.S. as its ally.

When I visited the U.S. recently, I told those whom I met that we
Japanese felt it was very regrettable for the U.S. to have removed
North Korea from its list of terrorism-sponsoring nations. I do not
think this remark undermined Japan-U.S. relations. I told them that
since the U.S. has its own policy and its own circumstances, it
naturally takes a different position from Japan.

Once the DPJ comes into power, the party must discuss specific
issues, including the Futenma relocation plan issue. I think the
party must maintain the basic stance of giving priority to the
Japan-U.S. alliance.

It is also important to place emphasis on Asia. When I was serving
as party president, I announced my vision in which I said that
priority should be given to Asia first and then to the Japan-U.S.
alliance. It was surprising that this view triggered a controversy,
but I think Japan is very lucky because it is located in the Asia
region, where the economies of nations are closely interlinked.
Japan should pursue affluence in an East Asia community, centering
on the Asian region, and also help build peace. Based on the view
that stability should be brought in the region through economic
exchanges, the Japanese government should formulate an Asia policy.

-- Various evaluations have been made of the Koizumi administration,
but it is true that Japan's relations with Asia, particularly, with
China and South Korea, became seriously strained during that
period.

Okada: Relations with the ASEAN countries also turned sour. Until
then, Japan and ASEAN countries had established very close ties, but
ASEAN and China became much closer. It is truly regrettable that
Japan's relations with China and South Korea deteriorated due to the
prime minister's visits to Yasukuni Shrine. A five-year vacuum was
created in our country's policy toward Asia.

-- On the security front, keeping favorable relations with neighbors
is imperative. Some speculate that a military clash could occur in
East Asia in the future, but that is open to question.

Okada: You are right. Although I said that China is behind the need
for a nuclear umbrella, interdependent relations have deepened in
the economic area in the region. We would like to build a
relationship with China in which we can discuss military
disarmament. I mean such discussion should also include the U.S.,
that is, the U.S. military.

-- When State Secretary Clinton visited Japan, Japan and the U.S.
concluded a Guam transfer agreement, and the accord went into effect

TOKYO 00001357 018 OF 020


in May. The people of Okinawa have fiercely reacted to the pact,
claiming their will was ignored. The DPJ is against the accord,
isn't it?

Okada: The accord is premised on the transfer of Futenma AIR
Station. If these two plans had been handled separately, we would
have taken a different stance. Since they have been made a set, we
oppose the accord.

-- The two countries might have decided to treat them as a package,
fearing the Guam plan might not be implemented if it was handled
independently. In Okinawa, there is even the speculation that both
sides decided to reach a governmental agreement so that the plan
will be implemented even under a DPJ government.

Okada: There is another view that the handling of the plans in a
package was intended to make the DPJ raise its opposition.
Particularly on the Futenma plan, we have insisted its functions be
transferred to somewhere outside the prefecture or Japan. Okinawa
Prefecture and the central government have yet to reach an
agreement, so I think this issue should be discussed more
thoroughly. The problem is that there are two major U.S. military
bases - Kadena and Futenma - on a very small island, Okinawa, and
that such a situation might last for another 30 or 50 years. If
Futenma is relocated to another area in Okinawa, the base will stay
there forever. It is necessary to have the U.S. think about it some
more. The relocation issue should be discussed more thoroughly.

-- Japan has always formed a security policy reflecting and
responding to U.S. policy.

Okada: Japan is still living in the shadow of the last war. The
current state of Okinawa being pressed with a heavy base burden is a
result of the miserable ground battle on that island. U.S. Marines
must be thinking that they acquired the bases through a bloody
battle. So they probably will not easily give up the bases.

However, decades have passed since the San Francisco Treaty was
signed, and the postwar period has already ended. It is now
necessary to discuss whether the concentration of U.S. bases on
Okinawa is normal. I think such a discussion is possible under the
Obama administration.

-- You proposed stabilizing the region under the Northeast
nuclear-free zone concept. Is this idea linked to a plan to reduce
U.S. bases in Okinawa, which is the U.S. military's strategic point
in the Far East region?

Okada: Of course, there is such an aspect, but the U.S. has seen the
bases in Okinawa in the context of its Asia strategy and also its
global strategy. Even so, there are so many U.S. military bases in
Okinawa. I have to say that their retrenchment and reallocations
must be considered. In realigning U.S. forces in Japan,
consideration naturally should be given to this point.

It is also necessary for our side to prepare a security policy or a
diplomatic policy to that end in a positive manner. I just said that
the Futenma base should be transferred to somewhere outside Okinawa,
but it might be unrealistic to think there is a local government
willing to host the base.

Even so, if we think the current situation of the Futenma base is a

TOKYO 00001357 019 OF 020


problem, we must make efforts to find a new host municipality. This
challenge is not easy, but since the government has erased the
option of moving the base somewhere outside the prefecture, there
will be no change in the state of bases permanently stationed in
Okinawa.

Information disclosure will deepen democracy

-- You have said that (if the DPJ assumes political power),you will
disclose the details of secret treaties having to do with Okinawa.
In my view, since the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty contains provisions
contradictory to the Constitution, particularly during the post-Cold
War period, Japan and U.S. concluded many secret agreements in order
to carry out operations. I think the so-called secret agreement on
the reversion of Okinawa is a typical one.

Okada: I have promised to disclose all information, including the
secret agreement on Okinawa reversion, if we assume political power.
A change of government has not taken place for such a long time that
transparency of information has not been guaranteed.

When the problem of the USS Kitty Hawk refueled by a Maritime
Self-Defense Force's ship in the Indian Ocean came to light, I felt
strongly about that issue. The U.S. government revealed almost all
parts of the Kitty Hawk's logbooks, but the Japanese government
refused to release information regarding the supply ship. Both
sides' responses were totally different.

In Japan, information inconvenient to the government tends to be
concealed from the public at the bureaucrats' discretion. There are
even cases in which people in Japan do not know what was already
disclosed in the U.S. or in South Korea. Such a situation must be
rectified immediately. Only our party, which is free from any
fetters, can do that.

We must not do what we cannot explain about later. But if we dare
explain why we did it, the people might understand our option. I
believe information disclosure will deepen public understanding
about the nation's foreign policy. This is very important in light
of popular sovereignty, and once the government is replaced,
information will be easily disclosed.

Former Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi said that although there
was a secret agreement on Okinawa reached by only four persons, the
accord has already become a dead letter (noted in the May 22, 2009,
issue of the Shukan Asahi). At that time, the presence of the secret
agreement itself was significant, because Japan was able to use it
as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S. government. Japan
should have disclosed the secret agreement at a certain point.

Learning the presence of the secret accord, some might claim it is
outrageous, but others might think that then Prime Minister Sato had
no choice but to make this bitter decision. I think democracy will
deepen as a result of different views presented.

(9) Prime Minister's schedule, June 14, 2009

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
June 16, 2009

Prime Minister's schedule, June 14, 2009


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NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
June 16, 2009

07:46 Took a walk around the official residence.
10:04 Wedding ceremony and reception for the eldest daughter of
former environment minister Shunichi Suzuki at Conrad Hotel in
Higashi-Shimbashi.
15:21 Visited the office of a candidate expected to run for the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in Higashi-Ueno.
16:01 Visited the office of a candidate expected to run for the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in Higashi-Ogu.
16:50 Visited the office of a candidate expected to run for the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in Shimane, Adachi Ward.
17:06 Visited the office of a candidate expected to run for the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in Hirano, Adachi Ward.
17:49 Visited the office of a candidate expected to run for the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in Itabashi.
18:05 Visited the office of a candidate expected to run for the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in Nakajuku.
18:29 Visited the office of a candidate expected to run for the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in Nishi-Ikebukuro.
19:10 Arrived at the official residence.

Prime Minister's schedule, June 15, 2009

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
June 16, 2009

10:20 Greeted the Emperor and the Empress at the Japan Art Academy
Hall in Ueno Park. Then attended the award ceremony of the Japan Art
Academy.
11:26 Sent off the Emperor and the Empress.
12:59 Met with Vice Foreign Minister Yabunaka at the Kantei.
15:01 Party executive meeting in the Diet building. Secretary
General Hosoda and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsumoto
remained.
15:57 Met with Lower House member Yoshitaka Sakurada at the Kantei.

16:15 Met with Finance Minister Yosano, followed by Chairman
Katsuhiko Shirai of the Federation of Japanese Private Colleges and
University Associations. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura remained.
Then met with Internal Affairs Minister Sato and Vice Internal
Affairs Minister Takino.
18:01 Peace of Mind Society Realization Conference (PMSRC).
19:07 Dined with PMSRC members.
20:22 Dined with Election Committee Chairman Koga, former foreign
minister Komura and former defense minister Kyuma and former METI
minister Hiranuma.
22:05 Arrived at the official residence.

ZUMWALT