Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO1349
2009-06-16 00:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:
JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 06/16/09
VZCZCXRO9378 PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH DE RUEHKO #1349/01 1670031 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 160031Z JUN 09 FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3747 INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5// RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA// RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21// RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA RUAYJAA/CTF 72 RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 6922 RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 4591 RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 8394 RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 2163 RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5117 RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9854 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 5881 RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 5593
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 001349
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 06/16/09
Index:
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 001349
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 06/16/09
Index:
1) Top headlines
2) Editorials
Opinion polls:
3) Aso Cabinet support rate plummets 8.7 points to low of 17 PERCENT
in Kyodo poll; Non-support rate now at an astronomical 70.6 PERCENT
(Tokyo Shimbun)
4) Yomiuri poll: Cabinet support rate drops 6.6 points in a week to
23 PERCENT , with 65 PERCENT of public unhappy with Aso's firing of
Minister Hatoyama (Yomiuri)
5) Asahi poll: Aso Cabinet support rate drops from 27 PERCENT to 19
PERCENT in a month; A majority of the public now favor a
post-election DPJ-centered government (Asahi)
6) Aso Cabinet's support rate declines 5 points to 19 PERCENT in
Mainichi poll (Mainichi)
7) Nikkei poll: Non-support rate for the Aso Cabinet now at 65
PERCENT (Nikkei)
Political merry-go-round:
8) Prime Minister Aso's lack of popularity has now reached the
danger zone (Tokyo Shimbun)
9) Main opposition Democratic Party of Japan is now all fired up for
the Lower House election (Yomiuri)
10) Moves to "topple Aso" may be rekindled in the Liberal Democratic
Party (Mainichi)
11) DPJ-backed candidate's win in test-case Chiba mayoralty election
deals another blow to the Aso Cabinet (Tokyo Shimbun)
12) Prime Minister Aso has yet to reveal his strategy toward the
timing of Diet dissolution and the Lower House election (Asahi)
13) Former Internal Affairs Minister Hatoyama, fired by the Prime
Minister for insisting the Japan Post head be replaced, reveals that
Aso was agreeable (Nikkei)
14) Government panel releases ten proposals to make Japan a "secure
society" (Yomiuri)
15) Main task of searching cargo of North Korean vessels under new
ship-search legislation will go to Japan Coast Guard out of
consideration to New Komeito (Mainichi)
16) Cabinet to approve new set of North Korea sanctions today
(Yomiuri)
Articles:
1) TOP HEADLINES
Asahi:
Kim Jong Il's third son, Kim Jong Un, secretly visits China on his
father's behalf
Mainichi:
Hundreds of thousands of Mousavi supporters stage demonstrations in
Iran
Yomiuri:
Cabinet support rate drops to 23 PERCENT
Nikkei:
Corporate bond issuances seen topping 6 trillion yen for
January-June period, marking highest level in 11 years
TOKYO 00001349 002 OF 011
Sankei:
Move to unseat Aso may gain momentum; July Tokyo assembly election a
critical event
Tokyo Shimbun:
Aso cabinet approval rate plummets to 17 PERCENT
Akahata:
Auto greenhouse gas criteria not included in LDP low-carbon society
legislation due to pressure from industry
2) EDITORIALS
Asahi:
(1) Health, Labor, and Welfare Ministry bureau chief arrested
(2) Iranian presidential election shows change
Mainichi:
(1) Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry bureau chief arrested over
discount mail discount system
(2) LDP in tight spot before the next general election
Yomiuri:
(1) Use proposals as basis for social peace of mind
(2) Health, Labor, and Welfare Ministry bureau chief arrested:
Lawmaker's involvement suspected
Nikkei:
(1) Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry abused mail discount system
(2) A sense of security comes from trust in state
Sankei:
(1) Secure-and-safe society report points out need to increase
birthrate
(2) Uncover the whole picture of abuse of mail discount system
Tokyo Shimbun:
(1) Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry bureau director-general
arrested: Uncover the truth, including politician involvement
(2) Presidential election in Iran: Dialogue with U.S. essential
Akahata:
(1) Build a society where people can raise children with sense of
security
3) Poll: Aso cabinet's support nosedives to 17 PERCENT
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top play) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
The support rate for Prime Minister Taro Aso's cabinet was 17.5
PERCENT , down 8.7 points from the previous poll conducted in May,
according to a telephone-based spot public opinion survey conducted
across the nation by Kyodo News on June 13-14. The nonsupport rate
was 70.6 PERCENT , up 10.4 points. Respondents were also asked what
political party they would vote for in the next House of
Representatives election's proportional representation blocs. In
this popularity ranking of political parties, the leading opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) overwhelmed the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party, with the DPJ scoring 47.8 PERCENT and the LDP at
18.7 PERCENT . In the breakdown of public support for political
TOKYO 00001349 003 OF 011
parties as well, the DPJ outstripped the LDP, respectively at 38.5
PERCENT and 19.8 PERCENT . The LDP hit an all-time low in the
telephone-based polls since the Miyazawa cabinet, except when it was
an opposition party. Respondents were also asked who they thought
was appropriate for prime minister. To this question, 50.4 PERCENT
named DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama, with 21.5 PERCENT choosing
Aso.
4) Poll: Cabinet support falls to 23 PERCENT
YOMIURI (Top play) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
The Yomiuri Shimbun conducted a telephone-based spot nationwide
public opinion survey on June 13-14, in which the approval rating
for Prime Minister Aso's cabinet was 22.9 PERCENT , down 6.6 points
from the 29.5 PERCENT rating in the last survey taken a week ago on
June 5-7). The disapproval rating was 67.8 PERCENT (61.0 PERCENT
in the last survey). Aso has now replaced Internal Affairs and
Communications Minister Hatoyama, who would not approve Japan Post's
decision to retain Yoshifumi Nishikawa as its president. When asked
if it was necessary to replace Hatoyama, a total of 65 PERCENT
answered "no." In addition, a total of 67 PERCENT also answered
"no" when asked if they were convinced that Nishikawa should stay on
as Japan Post president. The figures show that Aso's decision over
the postal issue was not supported. The issue of Nishikawa's
responsibility could be reignited. Asked about the turmoil in the
government and ruling parties, 70 PERCENT attributed it to Aso's
lack of leadership.
The support rate rebounded in the survey conducted in late March
when former Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) President Ichiro
Ozawa's state-funded secretary was indicted on charges of violating
the Political Funds Control Law. In the following surveys, the
support rate was on a recovery trend. In this survey, it clearly
dropped. This will likely affect the political situation down the
road.
The turmoil over the postal issue affected public ratings for Aso
and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party as well. Asked who would
suit the post of prime minister, 46 PERCENT picked DPJ President
Yukio Hatoyama, up from 44 PERCENT in the last survey. Aso was at
26 PERCENT . In the breakdown of public support for political
parties, the DPJ edged out the LDP, with the DPJ tallying 29.2
PERCENT (27.7 PERCENT in the last survey) and the LDP at 25.0
PERCENT (28.5 PERCENT in the last survey). Respondents were also
asked what party they would vote for in the next House of
Representatives election's proportional representation blocs. In
this popularity ranking, the DPJ rose to 42 PERCENT (39 PERCENT in
the last survey),with the LDP at 25 PERCENT (29 PERCENT in the
last survey).
5) Poll: Cabinet support plummets to 19 PERCENT
ASAHI (Page 1) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
The Asahi Shimbun conducted a telephone-based nationwide public
opinion survey on June 13-14, in which the support rate for Prime
Minister Aso's cabinet was 19 PERCENT , showing a sharp drop from
the 27 PERCENT rating in the last survey conducted May 16-17. The
support rate did not reach 20 PERCENT for the first time since
TOKYO 00001349 004 OF 011
early this March. Respondents were also asked if they would like the
current coalition government led by the ruling Liberal Democratic
Party to be replaced with a coalition government led by the leading
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto). To this question,
"yes" accounted for 52 PERCENT , topping 50 PERCENT for the first
time. The proportion of those in support of the LDP-led coalition
government was 23 PERCENT .
In the breakdown of public support for political parties, the DPJ
tallied 29 PERCENT , with the LDP at 22 PERCENT . In the last
survey, the DPJ was at 26 PERCENT and the LDP at 25 PERCENT .
Respondents were further asked what political party they would vote
for if they were to vote now in the House of Representatives
election's proportional representation blocs. To this question, 43
PERCENT named the DPJ, with 23 PERCENT choosing the LDP. In the
last survey, the DPJ was at 38 PERCENT and the LDP at 25 PERCENT .
Asked who would suit the post of prime minister, 42 PERCENT named
DPJ President Hatoyama and 24 PERCENT said Aso. In the last survey,
Hatoyama was at 40 PERCENT and Aso at 29 PERCENT .
6) Poll: Aso cabinet support rate down to 19 PERCENT
MAINICHI (Top play) (Abridged)
Eve., June 15, 2009
The Mainichi Shimbun conducted a nationwide public opinion survey on
June 13-14, in which the Aso cabinet's support rate was 19 PERCENT ,
down 5 points from the last survey taken May 16-17. The support rate
fell below 20 PERCENT to enter a 'danger zone' again for Aso to
keep running the government. Aso has now replaced Internal Affairs
and Communications Minister Kunio Hatoyama, who would not approve
Japan Post President Yoshifumi Nishikawa's staying on in his JP
post. In the survey, respondents were asked if they supported Aso's
decision. In response to this question, 67 PERCENT answered "no,"
with 22 PERCENT saying "yes." Respondents were also asked who they
thought would suit the post of prime minister. To this question, 32
PERCENT chose Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) President Yukio
Hatoyama, with 15 PERCENT naming Aso. In the last survey, Hatoyama
was at 34 PERCENT and Aso at 21 PERCENT .
In the breakdown of public support for political parties, the DPJ
tallied an all-time high of 34 PERCENT , up 4 points from the last
survey. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party was at 20 PERCENT , down
3 points. Among other political parties, the New Komeito, the LDP's
coalition partner, was at 4 PERCENT , the Japanese Communist Party
at 4 PERCENT , and the Social Democratic Party at 1 PERCENT . "None"
accounted for 32 PERCENT , down 5 points.
7) Cabinet support rate drops to 25 PERCENT
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Abridged slightly)
June 16, 2009
The rate of support for the cabinet of Prime Minister Taro Aso
dropped 5 points from the previous survey in May to 25 PERCENT in
an opinion poll conducted on June 13-14 by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun
and TV Tokyo. The disapproval rate increased 3 points to 65 PERCENT
. Asked about Aso's decision to dismiss Kunio Hatoyama as internal
affairs and communications minister over the reappointment of Japan
Post Holdings Co. President Yoshifumi Nishikawa, 56 PERCENT said
the decision was inappropriate and only 24 PERCENT said it was
appropriate.
TOKYO 00001349 005 OF 011
The support rate fell below the 30 PERCENT level for the first time
in three months since March. It has now reentered the "danger zone."
Asked for reasons for not supporting the Aso cabinet (multiple
answers acceptable),62 PERCENT , the largest group, cited "a lack
of leadership," an increase of 18 points, possibly because of
confusion over Hatoyama. Some 46 PERCENT cited "bad policies" and
45 PERCENT "a lack of stability." Meanwhile, as reasons for
supporting the cabinet, 49 PERCENT said because it is a Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) cabinet, and 22 PERCENT cited international
sensitivity.
About former communications minister Hatoyama's persistent call for
the resignation of Nishikawa as postal company president over his
response to the Kanpo no Yado inns issue, 59 PERCENT said it was
appropriate and a mere 21 PERCENT indicated it was inappropriate.
Among LDP supporters as well, "appropriate" accounted for 51 PERCENT
and "inappropriate" 26 PERCENT .
As for support for parties, the LDP fell 2 points to 31 PERCENT and
the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) also dropped 1
point to 37 PERCENT . Asked which party they would vote for in the
proportional representation segment in the next Lower House
election, 39 PERCENT pointed to the DPJ and 26 PERCENT to the LDP,
a drop of 2 points for both parties.
The survey was conducted by Nikkei Research on 1,229 households with
eligible voters using a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD)
system, with 720 people, or 58.6 PERCENT , responding with valid
answers.
8) Prime minister's unpopularity "hopeless"; Renewed calls to
advance LDP presidential election
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
June 16, 2009
Yuji Sasagase
Prime Minister Taro Aso has been struck by two misfortunes, the
defeat in the Chiba mayoral election on June 14 and the decline in
the cabinet support rating on June 15. ONE reason why he has allowed
another surge in the popularity of the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) is the clumsiness of his response to the "rebellion" of former
Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Kunio Hatoyama. His
leadership in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is certain to
weaken, and calls for advancing the party's presidential election,
which will lead to his downfall, are beginning to emerge again.
Aso put on a brave front at his meeting with Election Strategy
Council Chairman Makoto Koga and other LDP officials at a restaurant
in Tokyo on the evening of June 15, arguing that, "When Mr. Koizumi
(former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi) sacked (then foreign
minister) Ms. Makiko Tanaka, the support rating also went down."
However, a mood of despair about the 17 percent support rate is
spreading in the party. ONE senior official sighed: "It is probably
useless no matter what we do."
The reason why this is so serious is because even though the support
rating had recovered to nearly 30 percent due to aggressive economic
TOKYO 00001349 006 OF 011
policies and the scandal about political donations by Nishimatsu
Construction Company to former DPJ president Ichiro Ozawa, it is
declining steadily once again.
At a news conference on June 15, Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda
gave the following as the reason for the decline in approval rate:
"He gave no clear explanation on the reason for Mr Hatoyama's
resignation, and this has had an impact."
Actually, the prime minister is not without achievements that he can
take credit for. Stock prices have recovered to the 10,000 yen
level, and he has announced the mid-term greenhouse gas reduction
target in an attempt to meet the people's expectations.
Yet, all these efforts have failed to raise his support rating at
all. Fifty-seven percent of the respondents said the target for
reduction of greenhouse gases is "too high." There is even an
impression that the prime minister has fallen into a "negative
spiral" and whatever he does is not appreciated.
Aso's unpopularity has undoubtedly also affected the Chiba mayoral
election. The unaffiliated voters and even some LDP supporters voted
for the new mayor endorsed by the DPJ.
Moreover, the problem for the prime minister is that there is no way
to restore his approval rating with the dissolution of the House of
Representatives and the general election fast approaching. Even if
he reshuffles the Aso cabinet that is criticized as suffering the
terminal symptoms of an administration, there is no guarantee that
this will lift the approval rating. There is also no dramatic policy
in sight that will be hugely popular with the people.
The official declaration of candidacy for the Shizuoka gubernatorial
race will take place on June 18 (voting on July 5). If the LDP loses
both the Shizuoka election and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly
election (on July 12) after the defeat in the Chiba mayoral race,
there will be a significant "ground swell" of public opinion for a
change of government.
Amid the atmosphere of despair, mid-ranking and junior LDP members
are saying: "Holding the LDP presidential election is the only
option" and "Prime Minister Aso should resign voluntarily."
9) Cabinet support rating down to 23 PERCENT ; DPJ on offensive for
Lower House election
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has become more confident about
the next House of Representatives election with the Yomiuri Shimbun
nationwide poll showing a dive in the cabinet support rating. Taking
advantage of the victory of its endorsed candidate in the Chiba
mayoral election to gain momentum, the DPJ will also endorse a
candidate in the Shizuoka gubernatorial race in July and give full
publicity to the party's name. It intends to take the offensive in
this election and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, which
are regarded as the prelude to the Lower House election.
President Yukio Hatoyama talked to reporters in Tokyo on June 15
about the drop in the cabinet support rating. He said: "Partly due
to the mess concerning Japan Post, the people have probably decided
TOKYO 00001349 007 OF 011
that the administration is incompetent. This has led to a feeling of
hopelessness about the government," thus indicating that the
confusion surrounding the replacement of former Minister of Internal
Affairs and Communications Kunio Hatoyama has had a significant
impact.
The dismal cabinet support rating has also given rise to concerns
about moves in the ruling parties to "topple Aso." (DPJ Deputy
President) Ichiro Ozawa met the party's House of Councillors members
on June 15 and told them: "Mr. Aso will probably not last until the
Tokyo election. The dissolution of the Lower House may come on July
2 or 3," indicating that the prime minister will dissolve the Diet
before the Tokyo race. Certain DPJ members are saying that Kunio
Hatoyama should be urged to leave the Liberal Democratic Party and
work with the DPJ.
10) Ruling camp up its back against wall in run up to Shizuoka
run-off poll
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
June 6, 2009
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won the Chiba mayoral election,
the first of three local elections seen as bellwethers for the next
House of Representative election. Following the defeat, the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) and the New Komeito are geared up to do their
utmost in tacking the next Shizuoka gubernatorial election on the
18th. Candidates backed by the ruling parties have lost the three
government ordinance city mayoral elections -- Nagoya, Saitama and
Chiba. If they lose the Shizuoka gubernatorial election and the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on July 12, it is bound to
affect the upcoming Lower House election. As a junior member said, a
cool-headed view that the outcome of the gubernatorial election will
be a watershed is growing in the LDP, where sparks for ousting Prime
Minister Taro are smoldering.
Upper House member Yukiko Sakamoto, 60 years old, backed by the LDP
and the New Komeito, former Shizuoka University of Art and Culture
President Heita Kawakatsu, 60 years old, supported by the DPJ
Shizuoka Prefecture Chapter, former Upper House member of the DPJ
Toru Unno, 60 years old and Japanese Communist Party Shizuoka
Prefectural Chapter Standing Committee member Sadayoshi Hirano, 59
years old have declared their candidacies for the Shizuoka
gubernatorial election. The LDP has considered that they could win
the election, because votes for the DPJ will split between Kawakatsu
and Unno, as a senior member put it.
However, the LDP leadership is increasingly becoming impatient with
the official announcement of the election close at hand on the 18th.
As the ruling parties hit a losing streak in local elections,
anxieties over contesting the next election under Prime Minister Aso
are permeating among mid-ranking and junior members. Voices that
action must be taken, depending on the outcome of the Shizuoka
gubernatorial election, are gaining ground with the frontloading of
the LDP presidential election in mind.
Amid such a circumstance, Prime Minister Aso, who has been
encouraging candidates for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election,
at a party executive meeting on the 15th revealed his plan to visit
Shizuoka shortly in order to encourage the candidate backed by the
TOKYO 00001349 008 OF 011
ruling camp.
Hidehisa Otsuji, chairman of the LDP caucus in the Upper House,
along with a lawmaker elected from the prefecture for proportional
representation visited Shizuoka City to tighten up support from
industrial associations. Mid-ranking and junior members are
impatient at the leadership's efforts with ONE saying, "They are
encouraging candidates with just words. They lack a sense of
urgency."
11) Ruling parties alarmed by implication of Chiba mayoral race for
Lower House election; senior official says replacement of minister
of internal affairs and communications "devastating"
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
Evening, June 15, 2009
The ruling parties stress that "local circumstances" were the reason
for the defeat in the Chiba mayoral election on June 14, saying:
"The candidate we endorsed was the vice mayor named by the former
mayor who was indicted for bribe-taking. The choice was no good."
(Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda)
However, the ruling parties have suffered three straight losses in
mayoral elections of major cities (with prefecture status) after
Nagoya and Saitama. They are increasingly alarmed that this "domino
effect" may continue in the Shizuoka gubernatorial race and the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in July, giving momentum to a
change of administration.
LDP Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga told
reporters in Yokohama on the morning of June 15: "This was an
election held under special circumstances. We had expected the tough
battle to a certain extent." He said: "We will exert utmost efforts
in the Shizuoka gubernatorial race and the Tokyo Metropolitan
Assembly election."
Suga claimed that the replacement of former Minister of Internal
Affairs and Communications Kunio Hatoyama "had nothing to do with"
the Chiba election, but a senior party official gave the analysis
that, "Mr Hatoyama's resignation two days before the voting was
devastating."
Commenting on the defeat in the Chiba election, New Komeito election
strategy chief Yosuke Takagi said: "We must take the outcome
seriously. This may affect the Tokyo election and the House of
Representatives election," indicating his concerns.
12) Premier unable to map out Lower House dissolution strategy
ASAHI (Page 1) (Full)
June 16, 2009
The management of the administration has again entered a cautionary
zone with support ratings for the Aso cabinet falling below 20
PERCENT . The prime minister was unable to display leadership in the
appointment of president of Japan Post. The candidate backed by the
ruling party lost the Chiba mayoral election. If the situation is
left unattended, LDP members are bound to distance themselves from
Aso.
The prime minister attaches importance to the Tokyo Metropolitan
Assembly election on July 12. He intends to attack the Liberal
TOKYO 00001349 009 OF 011
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) for its lack of capability to run
the government during party head talks on June 17. He is positive
toward consolidating laws for cargo inspection as part of sanctions
against North Korea. He also expects that the involvement of Ichiro
Ozawa of the DPJ will be revealed in the first trial of the former
Nishimatsu Construction president on the 19th.
Meanwhile, some members of the Machimura faction, the largest
faction in the LDP, are urging the prime minister to decide to
dissolve the Diet either in late June or in early July and hold an
election on August 2. This means that this scenario will be the last
opportunity for him to be able to dissolve the Lower House as prime
minister. Other LDP members are calling for reshuffling the
leadership or the cabinet.
However, it appears that the prime minister is currently being
cautious about dissolving the Lower House or shuffling the cabinet
before the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. A senior LDP member
said that early dissolution of the Lower House under adverse
circumstances would be a suicidal action. The prevailing view is
that shuffling the cabinet will produce little effect. Some New
Komeito members project that the election day will be set either for
August 30 or September 6.
Some junior LDP members are calling for speeding up the presidential
election. However, they have not devised a specific scenario for
ousting Aso. The LDP seems to have reached an impasse in which it is
unable to find an appropriate time for the Lower House election or a
person to replace Aso.
13) Hatoyama: I received a list of possible candidates to replace
Nishikawa from the Prime Minister in spring
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
"I took it for granted that Prime Minister Aso would replace the
(Japan Post Holdings Co.) president without fail. I was too naove."
Kunio Hatoyama, who has resigned as internal affairs and
communications minister over the reappointment of Japan Post
Holdings Co. President Yoshifumi Nishikawa, held a press conference
at the ministry yesterday. In it, Hatoyama revealed that he had
received a letter this spring containing a list of individuals
suitable to become Nishikawa's successor.
Hatoyama made the following comment about the decision by the Prime
Minister who effectively fired him: "His decision was completely
wrong. The (cabinet) support rate has dropped because of it." He
also brushed aside speculation that he would leave the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) or form a new party. At the same time,
Hatoyama left the door open for such options, saying: "Anything can
happen in the future, and I still have my colleagues. I am already
60. I don't have much time left."
Revealing past conversations a problem
LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda at a press conference
yesterday criticized Hatoyama's words and deeds, saying: "We cannot
fire the Japan Post Holdings Co. president since he has not
committed any illegal act. Solid grounds are necessary when a
cabinet minister calls for a dismissal. What is legally impossible
TOKYO 00001349 010 OF 011
is impossible even for a cabinet mister." A government source also
noted Hatoyama's disclosure of the letter from Prime Minister Aso:
"It is a problem that he disclosed what had been discussed in the
past. The act exposed that he lacked qualifications as a cabinet
minister."
14) Panel proposes 10 measures for "secure" society
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full)
June 16, 2009
The government's panel tasked with discussing ways to realize a
society in which people can feel secure about their future held a
meeting at the Prime Minister's Official Residence yesterday and
submitted a report titled: "Realize peace of mind and vitality in
Japanese society." The report proposes 10 measures to be implemented
by fiscal 2011, including financial assistance to low-income
households and families with small children. The report also
advocates the need to set up a round-table panel of the ruling and
opposition parties to discuss how to secure the financial resources
to fund the proposed measures.
Prime Minister Aso said in the meeting: "The government must
translate (the measures in) the report into action. It is necessary
to form a consensus with the opposition camp." Aso intends to
reflect the suggestions in the report in the government's annual
economic and fiscal policy guidelines for fiscal 2009 due out on
June 23 and the Liberal Democratic Party's policy manifesto for the
next House of Representatives election.
The report lists five areas that should be reformed - employment,
child-raising, education, medical care, and nursing care. It then
calls for expanding the social security system, now intended for
only the elderly, to include low-income households and families with
small children and linking the five areas, in order to build "a
permanently secure society."
The 10 urgently needed measures include expansion of the application
of social insurance and labor insurance programs to include
non-regular employees and introduction of individual social security
numbers, besides assistance for low-income households and families
with small children.
The report also proposes "realigning administrative bodies and
reallocating personnel resources to promote reforms." Aso once
announced a plan to look into splitting the Health, Labor and
Welfare Ministry, but the plan met fierce reactions. Giving this
experience, the government panel decided to use the above
expression.
The report points out "the need to display a roadmap for tax reform,
including a consumption tax hike." Defining consumption tax as a tax
to support social security, the report proposes that a social
security account be created and funded with all the revenues from
consumption tax.
15) Sanctions against North Korea: Government to allow ship
inspections only by JCG, giving consideration to New Komeito, DPJ
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full)
June 16, 2009
TOKYO 00001349 011 OF 011
The government has discussed special legislation on cargo
inspections as part of sanctions against North Korea. Following the
UN Security Council's adoption of a resolution against that nation,
the government decided yesterday to allow only the Japan Coast Guard
(JCG) to carry out cargo inspections on the high seas and require
approval from a ship's country of origin and its captain in the
legislation. The Liberal Democratic Party had been considering a
bill that would authorize the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) to
conduct inspection but judged it necessary to give consideration to
the New Komeito and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). A number of
New Komeito members are calling for caution about inspection itself,
and the dominant view in the DPJ is that inspections should be done
only by the JCG.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura indicated in a press
conference yesterday that the government will lay out the framework
of the legislation by the end of this year and then said: "I think
we will be able to discuss it with the DPJ." Under the Japan Coast
Guard Law, the JCG has the authority to conduct cargo inspections
onboard ships in Japan's territorial waters. To allow inspections on
the high seas, the government is willing to have the special
measures bill be enacted in the current Diet session.
Prime Minister Taro Aso told reporters at the Prime Minister's
Official Residence yesterday:
"It is important to implement the measures in a resolution
unanimously adopted in the UN. If there are flaws in the relevant
laws, Japan must make legal preparations to be able to make a proper
response."
16) Cabinet decision on additional sanctions against North Korea
likely to be made today, including total ban on exports
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full)
June 16, 2009
The government will decide in a cabinet meeting today to totally ban
exports to North Korea as Japan's additional sanction over its
second nuclear test in May. The government will also strengthen
restrictions on the flow of foreign residents, such as permanent
Korean residents in Japan, between the two countries. It intends to
quickly implement these sanction measures.
Japan now prohibits exports of only luxury goods and materials
related to weapons of mass destruction, but it will revise the
Export Control Order to restrict exports of all items. The measure
will be valid through April 13 of next year.
Japan will not allow (1) foreign crewmembers to disembark in Japan;
and (2) foreign residents in Japan who visited North Korea to enter
Japan again if they are judged to have violated the Japanese
government's sanctions against the North. The Justice Minister will
deal with cases by applying the Immigrant Control and Refugee
Recognition Law.
ZUMWALT
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 06/16/09
Index:
1) Top headlines
2) Editorials
Opinion polls:
3) Aso Cabinet support rate plummets 8.7 points to low of 17 PERCENT
in Kyodo poll; Non-support rate now at an astronomical 70.6 PERCENT
(Tokyo Shimbun)
4) Yomiuri poll: Cabinet support rate drops 6.6 points in a week to
23 PERCENT , with 65 PERCENT of public unhappy with Aso's firing of
Minister Hatoyama (Yomiuri)
5) Asahi poll: Aso Cabinet support rate drops from 27 PERCENT to 19
PERCENT in a month; A majority of the public now favor a
post-election DPJ-centered government (Asahi)
6) Aso Cabinet's support rate declines 5 points to 19 PERCENT in
Mainichi poll (Mainichi)
7) Nikkei poll: Non-support rate for the Aso Cabinet now at 65
PERCENT (Nikkei)
Political merry-go-round:
8) Prime Minister Aso's lack of popularity has now reached the
danger zone (Tokyo Shimbun)
9) Main opposition Democratic Party of Japan is now all fired up for
the Lower House election (Yomiuri)
10) Moves to "topple Aso" may be rekindled in the Liberal Democratic
Party (Mainichi)
11) DPJ-backed candidate's win in test-case Chiba mayoralty election
deals another blow to the Aso Cabinet (Tokyo Shimbun)
12) Prime Minister Aso has yet to reveal his strategy toward the
timing of Diet dissolution and the Lower House election (Asahi)
13) Former Internal Affairs Minister Hatoyama, fired by the Prime
Minister for insisting the Japan Post head be replaced, reveals that
Aso was agreeable (Nikkei)
14) Government panel releases ten proposals to make Japan a "secure
society" (Yomiuri)
15) Main task of searching cargo of North Korean vessels under new
ship-search legislation will go to Japan Coast Guard out of
consideration to New Komeito (Mainichi)
16) Cabinet to approve new set of North Korea sanctions today
(Yomiuri)
Articles:
1) TOP HEADLINES
Asahi:
Kim Jong Il's third son, Kim Jong Un, secretly visits China on his
father's behalf
Mainichi:
Hundreds of thousands of Mousavi supporters stage demonstrations in
Iran
Yomiuri:
Cabinet support rate drops to 23 PERCENT
Nikkei:
Corporate bond issuances seen topping 6 trillion yen for
January-June period, marking highest level in 11 years
TOKYO 00001349 002 OF 011
Sankei:
Move to unseat Aso may gain momentum; July Tokyo assembly election a
critical event
Tokyo Shimbun:
Aso cabinet approval rate plummets to 17 PERCENT
Akahata:
Auto greenhouse gas criteria not included in LDP low-carbon society
legislation due to pressure from industry
2) EDITORIALS
Asahi:
(1) Health, Labor, and Welfare Ministry bureau chief arrested
(2) Iranian presidential election shows change
Mainichi:
(1) Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry bureau chief arrested over
discount mail discount system
(2) LDP in tight spot before the next general election
Yomiuri:
(1) Use proposals as basis for social peace of mind
(2) Health, Labor, and Welfare Ministry bureau chief arrested:
Lawmaker's involvement suspected
Nikkei:
(1) Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry abused mail discount system
(2) A sense of security comes from trust in state
Sankei:
(1) Secure-and-safe society report points out need to increase
birthrate
(2) Uncover the whole picture of abuse of mail discount system
Tokyo Shimbun:
(1) Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry bureau director-general
arrested: Uncover the truth, including politician involvement
(2) Presidential election in Iran: Dialogue with U.S. essential
Akahata:
(1) Build a society where people can raise children with sense of
security
3) Poll: Aso cabinet's support nosedives to 17 PERCENT
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top play) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
The support rate for Prime Minister Taro Aso's cabinet was 17.5
PERCENT , down 8.7 points from the previous poll conducted in May,
according to a telephone-based spot public opinion survey conducted
across the nation by Kyodo News on June 13-14. The nonsupport rate
was 70.6 PERCENT , up 10.4 points. Respondents were also asked what
political party they would vote for in the next House of
Representatives election's proportional representation blocs. In
this popularity ranking of political parties, the leading opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) overwhelmed the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party, with the DPJ scoring 47.8 PERCENT and the LDP at
18.7 PERCENT . In the breakdown of public support for political
TOKYO 00001349 003 OF 011
parties as well, the DPJ outstripped the LDP, respectively at 38.5
PERCENT and 19.8 PERCENT . The LDP hit an all-time low in the
telephone-based polls since the Miyazawa cabinet, except when it was
an opposition party. Respondents were also asked who they thought
was appropriate for prime minister. To this question, 50.4 PERCENT
named DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama, with 21.5 PERCENT choosing
Aso.
4) Poll: Cabinet support falls to 23 PERCENT
YOMIURI (Top play) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
The Yomiuri Shimbun conducted a telephone-based spot nationwide
public opinion survey on June 13-14, in which the approval rating
for Prime Minister Aso's cabinet was 22.9 PERCENT , down 6.6 points
from the 29.5 PERCENT rating in the last survey taken a week ago on
June 5-7). The disapproval rating was 67.8 PERCENT (61.0 PERCENT
in the last survey). Aso has now replaced Internal Affairs and
Communications Minister Hatoyama, who would not approve Japan Post's
decision to retain Yoshifumi Nishikawa as its president. When asked
if it was necessary to replace Hatoyama, a total of 65 PERCENT
answered "no." In addition, a total of 67 PERCENT also answered
"no" when asked if they were convinced that Nishikawa should stay on
as Japan Post president. The figures show that Aso's decision over
the postal issue was not supported. The issue of Nishikawa's
responsibility could be reignited. Asked about the turmoil in the
government and ruling parties, 70 PERCENT attributed it to Aso's
lack of leadership.
The support rate rebounded in the survey conducted in late March
when former Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) President Ichiro
Ozawa's state-funded secretary was indicted on charges of violating
the Political Funds Control Law. In the following surveys, the
support rate was on a recovery trend. In this survey, it clearly
dropped. This will likely affect the political situation down the
road.
The turmoil over the postal issue affected public ratings for Aso
and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party as well. Asked who would
suit the post of prime minister, 46 PERCENT picked DPJ President
Yukio Hatoyama, up from 44 PERCENT in the last survey. Aso was at
26 PERCENT . In the breakdown of public support for political
parties, the DPJ edged out the LDP, with the DPJ tallying 29.2
PERCENT (27.7 PERCENT in the last survey) and the LDP at 25.0
PERCENT (28.5 PERCENT in the last survey). Respondents were also
asked what party they would vote for in the next House of
Representatives election's proportional representation blocs. In
this popularity ranking, the DPJ rose to 42 PERCENT (39 PERCENT in
the last survey),with the LDP at 25 PERCENT (29 PERCENT in the
last survey).
5) Poll: Cabinet support plummets to 19 PERCENT
ASAHI (Page 1) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
The Asahi Shimbun conducted a telephone-based nationwide public
opinion survey on June 13-14, in which the support rate for Prime
Minister Aso's cabinet was 19 PERCENT , showing a sharp drop from
the 27 PERCENT rating in the last survey conducted May 16-17. The
support rate did not reach 20 PERCENT for the first time since
TOKYO 00001349 004 OF 011
early this March. Respondents were also asked if they would like the
current coalition government led by the ruling Liberal Democratic
Party to be replaced with a coalition government led by the leading
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto). To this question,
"yes" accounted for 52 PERCENT , topping 50 PERCENT for the first
time. The proportion of those in support of the LDP-led coalition
government was 23 PERCENT .
In the breakdown of public support for political parties, the DPJ
tallied 29 PERCENT , with the LDP at 22 PERCENT . In the last
survey, the DPJ was at 26 PERCENT and the LDP at 25 PERCENT .
Respondents were further asked what political party they would vote
for if they were to vote now in the House of Representatives
election's proportional representation blocs. To this question, 43
PERCENT named the DPJ, with 23 PERCENT choosing the LDP. In the
last survey, the DPJ was at 38 PERCENT and the LDP at 25 PERCENT .
Asked who would suit the post of prime minister, 42 PERCENT named
DPJ President Hatoyama and 24 PERCENT said Aso. In the last survey,
Hatoyama was at 40 PERCENT and Aso at 29 PERCENT .
6) Poll: Aso cabinet support rate down to 19 PERCENT
MAINICHI (Top play) (Abridged)
Eve., June 15, 2009
The Mainichi Shimbun conducted a nationwide public opinion survey on
June 13-14, in which the Aso cabinet's support rate was 19 PERCENT ,
down 5 points from the last survey taken May 16-17. The support rate
fell below 20 PERCENT to enter a 'danger zone' again for Aso to
keep running the government. Aso has now replaced Internal Affairs
and Communications Minister Kunio Hatoyama, who would not approve
Japan Post President Yoshifumi Nishikawa's staying on in his JP
post. In the survey, respondents were asked if they supported Aso's
decision. In response to this question, 67 PERCENT answered "no,"
with 22 PERCENT saying "yes." Respondents were also asked who they
thought would suit the post of prime minister. To this question, 32
PERCENT chose Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) President Yukio
Hatoyama, with 15 PERCENT naming Aso. In the last survey, Hatoyama
was at 34 PERCENT and Aso at 21 PERCENT .
In the breakdown of public support for political parties, the DPJ
tallied an all-time high of 34 PERCENT , up 4 points from the last
survey. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party was at 20 PERCENT , down
3 points. Among other political parties, the New Komeito, the LDP's
coalition partner, was at 4 PERCENT , the Japanese Communist Party
at 4 PERCENT , and the Social Democratic Party at 1 PERCENT . "None"
accounted for 32 PERCENT , down 5 points.
7) Cabinet support rate drops to 25 PERCENT
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Abridged slightly)
June 16, 2009
The rate of support for the cabinet of Prime Minister Taro Aso
dropped 5 points from the previous survey in May to 25 PERCENT in
an opinion poll conducted on June 13-14 by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun
and TV Tokyo. The disapproval rate increased 3 points to 65 PERCENT
. Asked about Aso's decision to dismiss Kunio Hatoyama as internal
affairs and communications minister over the reappointment of Japan
Post Holdings Co. President Yoshifumi Nishikawa, 56 PERCENT said
the decision was inappropriate and only 24 PERCENT said it was
appropriate.
TOKYO 00001349 005 OF 011
The support rate fell below the 30 PERCENT level for the first time
in three months since March. It has now reentered the "danger zone."
Asked for reasons for not supporting the Aso cabinet (multiple
answers acceptable),62 PERCENT , the largest group, cited "a lack
of leadership," an increase of 18 points, possibly because of
confusion over Hatoyama. Some 46 PERCENT cited "bad policies" and
45 PERCENT "a lack of stability." Meanwhile, as reasons for
supporting the cabinet, 49 PERCENT said because it is a Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) cabinet, and 22 PERCENT cited international
sensitivity.
About former communications minister Hatoyama's persistent call for
the resignation of Nishikawa as postal company president over his
response to the Kanpo no Yado inns issue, 59 PERCENT said it was
appropriate and a mere 21 PERCENT indicated it was inappropriate.
Among LDP supporters as well, "appropriate" accounted for 51 PERCENT
and "inappropriate" 26 PERCENT .
As for support for parties, the LDP fell 2 points to 31 PERCENT and
the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) also dropped 1
point to 37 PERCENT . Asked which party they would vote for in the
proportional representation segment in the next Lower House
election, 39 PERCENT pointed to the DPJ and 26 PERCENT to the LDP,
a drop of 2 points for both parties.
The survey was conducted by Nikkei Research on 1,229 households with
eligible voters using a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD)
system, with 720 people, or 58.6 PERCENT , responding with valid
answers.
8) Prime minister's unpopularity "hopeless"; Renewed calls to
advance LDP presidential election
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
June 16, 2009
Yuji Sasagase
Prime Minister Taro Aso has been struck by two misfortunes, the
defeat in the Chiba mayoral election on June 14 and the decline in
the cabinet support rating on June 15. ONE reason why he has allowed
another surge in the popularity of the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) is the clumsiness of his response to the "rebellion" of former
Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Kunio Hatoyama. His
leadership in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is certain to
weaken, and calls for advancing the party's presidential election,
which will lead to his downfall, are beginning to emerge again.
Aso put on a brave front at his meeting with Election Strategy
Council Chairman Makoto Koga and other LDP officials at a restaurant
in Tokyo on the evening of June 15, arguing that, "When Mr. Koizumi
(former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi) sacked (then foreign
minister) Ms. Makiko Tanaka, the support rating also went down."
However, a mood of despair about the 17 percent support rate is
spreading in the party. ONE senior official sighed: "It is probably
useless no matter what we do."
The reason why this is so serious is because even though the support
rating had recovered to nearly 30 percent due to aggressive economic
TOKYO 00001349 006 OF 011
policies and the scandal about political donations by Nishimatsu
Construction Company to former DPJ president Ichiro Ozawa, it is
declining steadily once again.
At a news conference on June 15, Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda
gave the following as the reason for the decline in approval rate:
"He gave no clear explanation on the reason for Mr Hatoyama's
resignation, and this has had an impact."
Actually, the prime minister is not without achievements that he can
take credit for. Stock prices have recovered to the 10,000 yen
level, and he has announced the mid-term greenhouse gas reduction
target in an attempt to meet the people's expectations.
Yet, all these efforts have failed to raise his support rating at
all. Fifty-seven percent of the respondents said the target for
reduction of greenhouse gases is "too high." There is even an
impression that the prime minister has fallen into a "negative
spiral" and whatever he does is not appreciated.
Aso's unpopularity has undoubtedly also affected the Chiba mayoral
election. The unaffiliated voters and even some LDP supporters voted
for the new mayor endorsed by the DPJ.
Moreover, the problem for the prime minister is that there is no way
to restore his approval rating with the dissolution of the House of
Representatives and the general election fast approaching. Even if
he reshuffles the Aso cabinet that is criticized as suffering the
terminal symptoms of an administration, there is no guarantee that
this will lift the approval rating. There is also no dramatic policy
in sight that will be hugely popular with the people.
The official declaration of candidacy for the Shizuoka gubernatorial
race will take place on June 18 (voting on July 5). If the LDP loses
both the Shizuoka election and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly
election (on July 12) after the defeat in the Chiba mayoral race,
there will be a significant "ground swell" of public opinion for a
change of government.
Amid the atmosphere of despair, mid-ranking and junior LDP members
are saying: "Holding the LDP presidential election is the only
option" and "Prime Minister Aso should resign voluntarily."
9) Cabinet support rating down to 23 PERCENT ; DPJ on offensive for
Lower House election
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has become more confident about
the next House of Representatives election with the Yomiuri Shimbun
nationwide poll showing a dive in the cabinet support rating. Taking
advantage of the victory of its endorsed candidate in the Chiba
mayoral election to gain momentum, the DPJ will also endorse a
candidate in the Shizuoka gubernatorial race in July and give full
publicity to the party's name. It intends to take the offensive in
this election and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, which
are regarded as the prelude to the Lower House election.
President Yukio Hatoyama talked to reporters in Tokyo on June 15
about the drop in the cabinet support rating. He said: "Partly due
to the mess concerning Japan Post, the people have probably decided
TOKYO 00001349 007 OF 011
that the administration is incompetent. This has led to a feeling of
hopelessness about the government," thus indicating that the
confusion surrounding the replacement of former Minister of Internal
Affairs and Communications Kunio Hatoyama has had a significant
impact.
The dismal cabinet support rating has also given rise to concerns
about moves in the ruling parties to "topple Aso." (DPJ Deputy
President) Ichiro Ozawa met the party's House of Councillors members
on June 15 and told them: "Mr. Aso will probably not last until the
Tokyo election. The dissolution of the Lower House may come on July
2 or 3," indicating that the prime minister will dissolve the Diet
before the Tokyo race. Certain DPJ members are saying that Kunio
Hatoyama should be urged to leave the Liberal Democratic Party and
work with the DPJ.
10) Ruling camp up its back against wall in run up to Shizuoka
run-off poll
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
June 6, 2009
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won the Chiba mayoral election,
the first of three local elections seen as bellwethers for the next
House of Representative election. Following the defeat, the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) and the New Komeito are geared up to do their
utmost in tacking the next Shizuoka gubernatorial election on the
18th. Candidates backed by the ruling parties have lost the three
government ordinance city mayoral elections -- Nagoya, Saitama and
Chiba. If they lose the Shizuoka gubernatorial election and the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on July 12, it is bound to
affect the upcoming Lower House election. As a junior member said, a
cool-headed view that the outcome of the gubernatorial election will
be a watershed is growing in the LDP, where sparks for ousting Prime
Minister Taro are smoldering.
Upper House member Yukiko Sakamoto, 60 years old, backed by the LDP
and the New Komeito, former Shizuoka University of Art and Culture
President Heita Kawakatsu, 60 years old, supported by the DPJ
Shizuoka Prefecture Chapter, former Upper House member of the DPJ
Toru Unno, 60 years old and Japanese Communist Party Shizuoka
Prefectural Chapter Standing Committee member Sadayoshi Hirano, 59
years old have declared their candidacies for the Shizuoka
gubernatorial election. The LDP has considered that they could win
the election, because votes for the DPJ will split between Kawakatsu
and Unno, as a senior member put it.
However, the LDP leadership is increasingly becoming impatient with
the official announcement of the election close at hand on the 18th.
As the ruling parties hit a losing streak in local elections,
anxieties over contesting the next election under Prime Minister Aso
are permeating among mid-ranking and junior members. Voices that
action must be taken, depending on the outcome of the Shizuoka
gubernatorial election, are gaining ground with the frontloading of
the LDP presidential election in mind.
Amid such a circumstance, Prime Minister Aso, who has been
encouraging candidates for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election,
at a party executive meeting on the 15th revealed his plan to visit
Shizuoka shortly in order to encourage the candidate backed by the
TOKYO 00001349 008 OF 011
ruling camp.
Hidehisa Otsuji, chairman of the LDP caucus in the Upper House,
along with a lawmaker elected from the prefecture for proportional
representation visited Shizuoka City to tighten up support from
industrial associations. Mid-ranking and junior members are
impatient at the leadership's efforts with ONE saying, "They are
encouraging candidates with just words. They lack a sense of
urgency."
11) Ruling parties alarmed by implication of Chiba mayoral race for
Lower House election; senior official says replacement of minister
of internal affairs and communications "devastating"
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)
Evening, June 15, 2009
The ruling parties stress that "local circumstances" were the reason
for the defeat in the Chiba mayoral election on June 14, saying:
"The candidate we endorsed was the vice mayor named by the former
mayor who was indicted for bribe-taking. The choice was no good."
(Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda)
However, the ruling parties have suffered three straight losses in
mayoral elections of major cities (with prefecture status) after
Nagoya and Saitama. They are increasingly alarmed that this "domino
effect" may continue in the Shizuoka gubernatorial race and the
Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in July, giving momentum to a
change of administration.
LDP Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga told
reporters in Yokohama on the morning of June 15: "This was an
election held under special circumstances. We had expected the tough
battle to a certain extent." He said: "We will exert utmost efforts
in the Shizuoka gubernatorial race and the Tokyo Metropolitan
Assembly election."
Suga claimed that the replacement of former Minister of Internal
Affairs and Communications Kunio Hatoyama "had nothing to do with"
the Chiba election, but a senior party official gave the analysis
that, "Mr Hatoyama's resignation two days before the voting was
devastating."
Commenting on the defeat in the Chiba election, New Komeito election
strategy chief Yosuke Takagi said: "We must take the outcome
seriously. This may affect the Tokyo election and the House of
Representatives election," indicating his concerns.
12) Premier unable to map out Lower House dissolution strategy
ASAHI (Page 1) (Full)
June 16, 2009
The management of the administration has again entered a cautionary
zone with support ratings for the Aso cabinet falling below 20
PERCENT . The prime minister was unable to display leadership in the
appointment of president of Japan Post. The candidate backed by the
ruling party lost the Chiba mayoral election. If the situation is
left unattended, LDP members are bound to distance themselves from
Aso.
The prime minister attaches importance to the Tokyo Metropolitan
Assembly election on July 12. He intends to attack the Liberal
TOKYO 00001349 009 OF 011
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) for its lack of capability to run
the government during party head talks on June 17. He is positive
toward consolidating laws for cargo inspection as part of sanctions
against North Korea. He also expects that the involvement of Ichiro
Ozawa of the DPJ will be revealed in the first trial of the former
Nishimatsu Construction president on the 19th.
Meanwhile, some members of the Machimura faction, the largest
faction in the LDP, are urging the prime minister to decide to
dissolve the Diet either in late June or in early July and hold an
election on August 2. This means that this scenario will be the last
opportunity for him to be able to dissolve the Lower House as prime
minister. Other LDP members are calling for reshuffling the
leadership or the cabinet.
However, it appears that the prime minister is currently being
cautious about dissolving the Lower House or shuffling the cabinet
before the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. A senior LDP member
said that early dissolution of the Lower House under adverse
circumstances would be a suicidal action. The prevailing view is
that shuffling the cabinet will produce little effect. Some New
Komeito members project that the election day will be set either for
August 30 or September 6.
Some junior LDP members are calling for speeding up the presidential
election. However, they have not devised a specific scenario for
ousting Aso. The LDP seems to have reached an impasse in which it is
unable to find an appropriate time for the Lower House election or a
person to replace Aso.
13) Hatoyama: I received a list of possible candidates to replace
Nishikawa from the Prime Minister in spring
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged)
June 16, 2009
"I took it for granted that Prime Minister Aso would replace the
(Japan Post Holdings Co.) president without fail. I was too naove."
Kunio Hatoyama, who has resigned as internal affairs and
communications minister over the reappointment of Japan Post
Holdings Co. President Yoshifumi Nishikawa, held a press conference
at the ministry yesterday. In it, Hatoyama revealed that he had
received a letter this spring containing a list of individuals
suitable to become Nishikawa's successor.
Hatoyama made the following comment about the decision by the Prime
Minister who effectively fired him: "His decision was completely
wrong. The (cabinet) support rate has dropped because of it." He
also brushed aside speculation that he would leave the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) or form a new party. At the same time,
Hatoyama left the door open for such options, saying: "Anything can
happen in the future, and I still have my colleagues. I am already
60. I don't have much time left."
Revealing past conversations a problem
LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda at a press conference
yesterday criticized Hatoyama's words and deeds, saying: "We cannot
fire the Japan Post Holdings Co. president since he has not
committed any illegal act. Solid grounds are necessary when a
cabinet minister calls for a dismissal. What is legally impossible
TOKYO 00001349 010 OF 011
is impossible even for a cabinet mister." A government source also
noted Hatoyama's disclosure of the letter from Prime Minister Aso:
"It is a problem that he disclosed what had been discussed in the
past. The act exposed that he lacked qualifications as a cabinet
minister."
14) Panel proposes 10 measures for "secure" society
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full)
June 16, 2009
The government's panel tasked with discussing ways to realize a
society in which people can feel secure about their future held a
meeting at the Prime Minister's Official Residence yesterday and
submitted a report titled: "Realize peace of mind and vitality in
Japanese society." The report proposes 10 measures to be implemented
by fiscal 2011, including financial assistance to low-income
households and families with small children. The report also
advocates the need to set up a round-table panel of the ruling and
opposition parties to discuss how to secure the financial resources
to fund the proposed measures.
Prime Minister Aso said in the meeting: "The government must
translate (the measures in) the report into action. It is necessary
to form a consensus with the opposition camp." Aso intends to
reflect the suggestions in the report in the government's annual
economic and fiscal policy guidelines for fiscal 2009 due out on
June 23 and the Liberal Democratic Party's policy manifesto for the
next House of Representatives election.
The report lists five areas that should be reformed - employment,
child-raising, education, medical care, and nursing care. It then
calls for expanding the social security system, now intended for
only the elderly, to include low-income households and families with
small children and linking the five areas, in order to build "a
permanently secure society."
The 10 urgently needed measures include expansion of the application
of social insurance and labor insurance programs to include
non-regular employees and introduction of individual social security
numbers, besides assistance for low-income households and families
with small children.
The report also proposes "realigning administrative bodies and
reallocating personnel resources to promote reforms." Aso once
announced a plan to look into splitting the Health, Labor and
Welfare Ministry, but the plan met fierce reactions. Giving this
experience, the government panel decided to use the above
expression.
The report points out "the need to display a roadmap for tax reform,
including a consumption tax hike." Defining consumption tax as a tax
to support social security, the report proposes that a social
security account be created and funded with all the revenues from
consumption tax.
15) Sanctions against North Korea: Government to allow ship
inspections only by JCG, giving consideration to New Komeito, DPJ
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full)
June 16, 2009
TOKYO 00001349 011 OF 011
The government has discussed special legislation on cargo
inspections as part of sanctions against North Korea. Following the
UN Security Council's adoption of a resolution against that nation,
the government decided yesterday to allow only the Japan Coast Guard
(JCG) to carry out cargo inspections on the high seas and require
approval from a ship's country of origin and its captain in the
legislation. The Liberal Democratic Party had been considering a
bill that would authorize the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) to
conduct inspection but judged it necessary to give consideration to
the New Komeito and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). A number of
New Komeito members are calling for caution about inspection itself,
and the dominant view in the DPJ is that inspections should be done
only by the JCG.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura indicated in a press
conference yesterday that the government will lay out the framework
of the legislation by the end of this year and then said: "I think
we will be able to discuss it with the DPJ." Under the Japan Coast
Guard Law, the JCG has the authority to conduct cargo inspections
onboard ships in Japan's territorial waters. To allow inspections on
the high seas, the government is willing to have the special
measures bill be enacted in the current Diet session.
Prime Minister Taro Aso told reporters at the Prime Minister's
Official Residence yesterday:
"It is important to implement the measures in a resolution
unanimously adopted in the UN. If there are flaws in the relevant
laws, Japan must make legal preparations to be able to make a proper
response."
16) Cabinet decision on additional sanctions against North Korea
likely to be made today, including total ban on exports
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full)
June 16, 2009
The government will decide in a cabinet meeting today to totally ban
exports to North Korea as Japan's additional sanction over its
second nuclear test in May. The government will also strengthen
restrictions on the flow of foreign residents, such as permanent
Korean residents in Japan, between the two countries. It intends to
quickly implement these sanction measures.
Japan now prohibits exports of only luxury goods and materials
related to weapons of mass destruction, but it will revise the
Export Control Order to restrict exports of all items. The measure
will be valid through April 13 of next year.
Japan will not allow (1) foreign crewmembers to disembark in Japan;
and (2) foreign residents in Japan who visited North Korea to enter
Japan again if they are judged to have violated the Japanese
government's sanctions against the North. The Justice Minister will
deal with cases by applying the Immigrant Control and Refugee
Recognition Law.
ZUMWALT