Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TOKYO1234
2009-06-02 07:01:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/02/09

Tags:  OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 001234 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/02/09

INDEX:

(1) Aso, Steinberg meet, confirm bilateral cooperation on N. Korea
(Sankei)

(2) Aso, Steinberg agree to cooperate closely on N. Korea (Tokyo
Shimbun)

(3) Prime Minister Aso to U.S. deputy secretary of state: "Give more
importance to dealing with North Korea" (Mainichi)

(4) Aso, Steinberg agree to call on China for cooperation in dealing
with North Korea (Tokyo Shimbun)

(5) Kawamura presents outlook that Diet will be dissolved during
current session (Mainichi)

(6) Extension of Diet session by 55 days: Prime minister
demonstrating leadership in Diet dissolution, toning down image of
"forced hand" (Nikkei)

(7) Diet dissolution strategy still undecided; Diet session extended
for 55 days until late July (Asahi)

(8) First meeting of top DPJ, Nippon Keidanren leaders in three
years seen to be in anticipation of Lower House election (Nikkei)

(9) Editorial: Designation of new U.S. ambassador to Japan: First
step toward building new relationship with Obama administration
(Yomiuri)

(10) Mechanism to set date for Lower House election (Tokyo Shimbun)


(11) Greenhouse gas emissions: UN taskforce meeting on Post-Kyoto
Protocol international framework; Japan, U.S. to propose mandating
emerging countries to cut carbon dioxide emissions (Nikkei)

(12) NPA, Internet service providers to tackle child porn issue
(Yomiuri)

ARTICLES:

(1) Aso, Steinberg meet, confirm bilateral cooperation on N. Korea

SANKEI (Online) (Full)
June 2, 2009 (12:16)

Prime Minister Taro Aso met this morning at his office with visiting
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg and others. In the meeting,
Aso and Steinberg agreed that North Korea should implement its
complete and verifiable denuclearization. In addition, the two also
confirmed that Japan and the United States would closely cooperate
in and outside the United Nations Security Council.

"There is a neighboring country that conducted nuclear tests," Aso
said at the beginning of the meeting. "In terms of security in
Northeast Asia," he added, "this situation is far more serious than
the Middle East."

Steinberg told reporters after the meeting: "China has taken
positive part in the discussions at the United Nations and has also

TOKYO 00001234 002 OF 013


come up with its own ideas. I think we will probably be able to find
common ground." With this, Steinberg expressed his expectations for
the United Nations to adopt a resolution for additional sanctions on
North Korea.

(2) Aso, Steinberg agree to cooperate closely on N. Korea

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Online) (Full)
Eve., June 2, 2009

Prime Minister Taro Aso met this morning at his office with visiting
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg. In the meeting, Aso and
Steinberg agreed that the Japanese and U.S. government would closely
cooperate on North Korea.

Aso expressed his strong concern, saying: "A country that conducted
nuclear tests is next door to Japan. Such a situation is far more
serious than the Middle East from the perspective of security." Aso
and Steinberg confirmed that the Japanese and U.S. governments would
work together to draft a new resolution of the United Nations
Security Council regarding North Korea's nuclear testing.

After the meeting, Steinberg told reporters: "We will have to bring
North Korea back to the path of complete and verifiable
denuclearization. Our close relationship will be the key to
success."

(3) Prime Minister Aso to U.S. deputy secretary of state: "Give more
importance to dealing with North Korea"

MAINICHI ONLINE (Full)
12:17 PM, June 2, 2009

Ai Yokota

Prime Minister Taro Aso met U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James
Steinberg at the Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) on the
morning of June 2. At the beginning of the meeting, Aso stated: "We
perceive this situation where we have a neighbor that has conducted
nuclear tests (North Korea) as much more serious than the Middle
East from the standpoint of security in the Far East. We would like
to re-emphasize this point." He asked that the United States give
more importance to dealing with North Korea's nuclear issue.

The two agreed at the meeting that Japan and the U.S. will cooperate
closely to bring the DPRK back to the path of complete and
verifiable denuclearization.

After the meeting, Steinberg told reporters at the Kantei: "I
understand that China is coming up with its own positive ideas. I
think we will probably be able to take a common stand," indicating
the possibility of adopting a strong UN Security Council resolution
with China's participation.

(4) Aso, Steinberg agree to call on China for cooperation in dealing
with North Korea

TOKYO SHIMBUN ONLINE
June 2, 2009

Prime Minister Taro Aso exchanged views on North Korea's (nuclear)
problem with Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and other

TOKYO 00001234 003 OF 013


senior U.S. government officials at the Prime Minister's Official
Residence this morning. They agreed on the need to call on China and
other countries involved in the Six-Party Talks to jointly make
efforts to denuclearize North Korea. Aso emphasized: "I said this to
President Obama as well, but this is a serious situation in which
our neighbor is a country that has conducted a nuclear test."

After the meeting, Steinberg indicated his confidence about
obtaining China's cooperation in adopting a new UN Security Council
resolution on North Korea's latest nuclear test. He said: "China is
responding actively and has presented its own ideas. We will be able
to take a common stance with China."

(5) Kawamura presents outlook that Diet will be dissolved during
current session

MAINICHI ONLINE (Full)
June 2, 2009

Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura presented in a press
conference this morning an outlook that Prime Minister Taro Aso
would dissolve the Diet during the current session. He specifically
said in connection with the government's and the ruling coalition's
decision to extend the current Diet session through July 28: "As far
as our (House of Representative lawmakers) term is concerned, this
is going to be the last Diet session. In that respect, we would like
to bring this session to a successful conclusion."

There is an option of convening an extraordinary session of the Diet
in August and then dissolving the Diet instead of dissolving the
Diet in the current session. Kawamura effectively ruled out that
option. The Diet extension is expected to be decided at a Lower
House plenary session this afternoon.

(6) Extension of Diet session by 55 days: Prime minister
demonstrating leadership in Diet dissolution, toning down image of
"forced hand"

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
June 2, 2009

The ruling parties agreed on June 1 to extend the current Diet
session by 55 days. By overruling the proposal to extend the session
by more than 60 days, Prime Minister Taro Aso is attempting to
demonstrate "leadership by the Prime Minister's Office Residence" as
well as tone down the image of "dissolving the Diet after his hand
was forced." Meanwhile, he has left the option of holding the
election as late as early September open. However, it is unclear
whether the mood for "postponing the dissolution of the House of
Representatives" that has begun to spread in the ruling parties will
subside.

At a meeting of government and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
executives on the afternoon of June 1, Diet Affairs Committee
Chairman Tadamori Oshima argued strongly that, "If we extend the
session too much, it will only give an excuse to the DPJ to
filibuster. We should go into the election in a dignified manner."
The prime minister also nodded his approval.

The LDP and New Komeito had agreed at a meeting of their secretaries
general and Diet Affairs Committee chairmen on May 29 to extend the
Diet session by over 60 days into mid-August, taking into account

TOKYO 00001234 004 OF 013


the possibility of a second vote in the House of Representatives on
the bills to amend the Development Bank of Japan Law and other
legislations relating to the FY09 supplementary budget. The prime
minister had also agreed to this plan.

However, Oshima took steps to change the plan. He stated in Miyazaki
City on May 31: "If you steer Diet affairs on the assumption from
the beginning (that a second vote will be taken in the Lower House),
there will be no sense of urgency." On that same evening, Aso also
asked New Komeito leader Akihiro Ota to come to a top secret meeting
at a hotel in Tokyo to exchange views on the strategy for Diet
dissolution.

One reason for this change of plan is the unexpected prevalence of
the "mood for postponing dissolution." Election Strategy Council
Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga, who is a close aide to Aso like
Oshima, stated clearly in Sapporo City on May 31: "The prime
minister's assessment that later is better is beginning to change."
This resulted in widespread speculation that the election will take
place on August 30, after the Obon holidays, or September 6. A
senior New Komeito official explains that, "The prime minister might
have been averse to such a mood."

If the Diet session is adjourned sooner than early August, "there is
a risk that the '60-day rule' may not be used for a second vote in
the Lower House" and the bills related to the supplementary budget
"may not be enacted" (senior LDP official). Yet Aso and Oshima still
opted for demonstrating the prime minister's leadership rather than
giving the impression of "being forced to dissolve the Diet."

Meanwhile, the new Diet schedule is based on calculations to keep
the option of dates for holding the Lower House election open "until
the last minute before the expiration of the Lower House's term of
office on September 10" (prime minister's aide). Article 31 of the
Public Office Election Law stipulates that an election needs to be
held "within 40 days of the dissolution" of the Lower House. If the
Lower House is dissolved on July 28, the 40th day, counting from
July 29, is September 6, which is the last Sunday before the end of
the term of office. The result will, in effect, be the same as
extending the Diet session for over 60 days.

Some ruling party members see the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle
with the shortening of the Diet session because a reshuffle normally
takes place when the Diet is not in session. A number of ruling
party officials visited the prime minister at his official quarters
in late May and advised him to revamp the cabinet and the LDP
executives.

(7) Diet dissolution strategy still undecided; Diet session extended
for 55 days until late July

ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)

Prime Minister Taro Aso has decided to extend the regular Diet
session for 55 days until July 28. The duration of the Diet session
is closely linked with the schedule for the dissolution of the House
of Representatives. By shortening the originally planned "over 60
days" of extension, Aso intends to dodge allegations of "postponing
Diet dissolution" and tighten unity in the Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP). Meanwhile, there is a proposal in the ruling parties to call
an extraordinary Diet session for the purpose of dissolving the
Lower House in August following the Obon holidays after the regular

TOKYO 00001234 005 OF 013


Diet session is adjourned in July. Is the prime minister still
undecided on his strategy for Diet dissolution?

Scenario 1: Election on August 9 - concern about chance of winning
after Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election

Holding the election on August 9 by dissolving the Diet right after
the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (TMA) election on July 12 is
regarded as the most likely schedule among the ruling parties. The
plan is to dissolve the Diet after the prime minister displays his
"Aso diplomacy" at the G-8 Summit in Italy, July 8-10. A second vote
on the tax reform bills will also be possible by July 12.

While there is also another proposal in the LDP to dissolve the Diet
before the Tokyo election and hold the general election on August 2,
this is opposed by New Komeito, on grounds that "election
cooperation between the LDP and New Komeito will collapse," (senior
New Komeito official). If voter turnout in the Tokyo election goes
up as a result of Diet dissolution, this may disadvantage New
Komeito, which relies heavily on organized votes. The majority
opinion in the ruling parties is that "dissolution will take place
right after the TMA election, at the earliest."

Aso has maintained that "dissolution should ideally take place after
the enactment of the bills related to the supplementary budget."
There is no guarantee that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will
pass these bills in the House of Councillors by the time the TMA
election is held, but the prime minister does not insist on passing
all the bills either, so it is believed that this will not be a
major constraint on the Diet dissolution decision.

The question is the chance of winning. The support rating of the DPJ
has recovered with the election of Yukio Hatoyama as president.
There are many causes for concern, such as a repeat performance of a
"wavering Aso" on the question of dividing up the Ministry of
Health, Labour and Welfare. If the ruling parties fail to win a
majority in the Tokyo election, or the DPJ replaces the LDP as the
number one party, calls for postponing Diet dissolution are certain
to grow. August 9 is also the anniversary of the atomic bombing of
Nagasaki, so there are people who are negative about this date. LDP
Election Strategy Council chief Makoto Koga says: "This will be
unlikely based on common practice."

Scenario 2: Election on August 30 or September 6 - last chance for
prime minister to show initiative

With the substantial extension of the Diet session, the schedule of
dissolving the Diet at the end of its session on July 28 and holding
the election on August 30 or September 6 has suddenly gained
prominence among the ruling parties.

On the evening of May 29, after the supplementary budget was passed,
Yoshihide Suga, vice chairman of the LDP Election Strategy Council,
gave the following advice to Aso: "The more time you have before the
election, the more the support rating will rise." In addition to the
expectation that the effects of the economic stimulation measures
will be visible by summer, the "congratulatory mood" toward the DPJ
will subside.

New Komeito also welcomes dissolution at the end of the Diet
session. It prefers having the election on August 30 rather than on
August 9, so that it is as far apart as possible from the TMA

TOKYO 00001234 006 OF 013


election. An aborted plan by the ruling parties to extend the Diet
session to early August was actually the idea of New Komeito.

Meanwhile, the prime minister had wanted to extend the Diet session
only to July 25, fearing the heightened mood for postponing Diet
dissolution may weaken his leadership. However, since a general
election has to be held within 40 days of dissolution, this will
mean that holding the election on September 6 will no longer be an
option. In the end, he decided on July 28, so that both August 30
and September 6 will remain options for holding the general
election.

There is a reason why "September 6 is the time limit" for Aso.
Although dissolution can take place anytime before the end of the
Lower House members' term of office on September 10 under the law,
if the election is held after the term of office expires, this will
give a stronger impression of an "indecisive (on when to dissolve
the Diet) prime minister."

Scenario 3: Election on October 18 at the latest - "moves to topple
Aso" may rekindle

A senior LDP official close to Aso indicated on June 1 that, "It is
possible to adjourn the current Diet session and then call an
extraordinary session to dissolve the Diet," which means the
dissolution of the Diet at an extraordinary session convened in
August or later is an option.

In this case, the election can take place between mid-September and
October 18, if the Diet is dissolved on the day the Lower House's
term of office expires. There is talk in the ruling parties that if
the right timing is not found during the current Diet session, the
cabinet should be reshuffled in August to present a fresh lineup and
then go into the election.

However, dissolving the Diet at such an extraordinary session is
much more likely to be perceived as "dissolution after being driven
into a corner." Not only that, the prime minister's leadership may
weaken further with a defeat in the Tokyo election, declining
approval rating, and other factors, and moves in the ruling parties
to "topple Aso" may rekindle. There is even a possibility that Aso
may be forced to step down before the extraordinary Diet session.

LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima told reporters
unequivocally on June 1: "The prime minister will decide (on
dissolution) within the 55 days (of the current Diet session). By
political conventions, it is not desirable to convene a new session
to dissolve the Diet." This was a statement made out of concern
about such a possibility.

When asked on the evening of June 1 about the possibility of
dissolving the Diet by convening an extraordinary session, the prime
minister would only say: "Of course, we need to think about
different things in relation to Diet dissolution. I will make my
decision after considering various factors."

(8) First meeting of top DPJ, Nippon Keidanren leaders in three
years seen to be in anticipation of Lower House election

NIKKEI (Page 3) (Full)
June 2, 2009


TOKYO 00001234 007 OF 013


Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama and Nippon
Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) Chairman Fujio Mitarai held
the first policy consultation between the top leaders of the two
organizations in three years at the Keidanren Hall in Tokyo on June
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 001234 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/02/09 INDEX: (1) Aso, Steinberg meet, confirm bilateral cooperation on N. Korea (Sankei) (2) Aso, Steinberg agree to cooperate closely on N. Korea (Tokyo Shimbun) (3) Prime Minister Aso to U.S. deputy secretary of state: "Give more importance to dealing with North Korea" (Mainichi) (4) Aso, Steinberg agree to call on China for cooperation in dealing with North Korea (Tokyo Shimbun) (5) Kawamura presents outlook that Diet will be dissolved during current session (Mainichi) (6) Extension of Diet session by 55 days: Prime minister demonstrating leadership in Diet dissolution, toning down image of "forced hand" (Nikkei) (7) Diet dissolution strategy still undecided; Diet session extended for 55 days until late July (Asahi) (8) First meeting of top DPJ, Nippon Keidanren leaders in three years seen to be in anticipation of Lower House election (Nikkei) (9) Editorial: Designation of new U.S. ambassador to Japan: First step toward building new relationship with Obama administration (Yomiuri) (10) Mechanism to set date for Lower House election (Tokyo Shimbun) (11) Greenhouse gas emissions: UN taskforce meeting on Post-Kyoto Protocol international framework; Japan, U.S. to propose mandating emerging countries to cut carbon dioxide emissions (Nikkei) (12) NPA, Internet service providers to tackle child porn issue (Yomiuri) ARTICLES: (1) Aso, Steinberg meet, confirm bilateral cooperation on N. Korea SANKEI (Online) (Full) June 2, 2009 (12:16) Prime Minister Taro Aso met this morning at his office with visiting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg and others. In the meeting, Aso and Steinberg agreed that North Korea should implement its complete and verifiable denuclearization. In addition, the two also confirmed that Japan and the United States would closely cooperate in and outside the United Nations Security Council. "There is a neighboring country that conducted nu
clear tests," Aso said at the beginning of the meeting. "In terms of security in Northeast Asia," he added, "this situation is far more serious than the Middle East." Steinberg told reporters after the meeting: "China has taken positive part in the discussions at the United Nations and has also TOKYO 00001234 002 OF 013 come up with its own ideas. I think we will probably be able to find common ground." With this, Steinberg expressed his expectations for the United Nations to adopt a resolution for additional sanctions on North Korea. (2) Aso, Steinberg agree to cooperate closely on N. Korea TOKYO SHIMBUN (Online) (Full) Eve., June 2, 2009 Prime Minister Taro Aso met this morning at his office with visiting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg. In the meeting, Aso and Steinberg agreed that the Japanese and U.S. government would closely cooperate on North Korea. Aso expressed his strong concern, saying: "A country that conducted nuclear tests is next door to Japan. Such a situation is far more serious than the Middle East from the perspective of security." Aso and Steinberg confirmed that the Japanese and U.S. governments would work together to draft a new resolution of the United Nations Security Council regarding North Korea's nuclear testing. After the meeting, Steinberg told reporters: "We will have to bring North Korea back to the path of complete and verifiable denuclearization. Our close relationship will be the key to success." (3) Prime Minister Aso to U.S. deputy secretary of state: "Give more importance to dealing with North Korea" MAINICHI ONLINE (Full) 12:17 PM, June 2, 2009 Ai Yokota Prime Minister Taro Aso met U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg at the Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) on the morning of June 2. At the beginning of the meeting, Aso stated: "We perceive this situation where we have a neighbor that has conducted nuclear tests (North Korea) as much more serious than the Middle East from the standpoint of security in the Far East. We would like to re-emphasize this point." He asked that the United States give more importance to dealing with North Korea's nuclear issue. The two agreed at the meeting that Japan and the U.S. will cooperate closely to bring the DPRK back to the path of complete and verifiable denuclearization. After the meeting, Steinberg told reporters at the Kantei: "I understand that China is coming up with its own positive ideas. I think we will probably be able to take a common stand," indicating the possibility of adopting a strong UN Security Council resolution with China's participation. (4) Aso, Steinberg agree to call on China for cooperation in dealing with North Korea TOKYO SHIMBUN ONLINE June 2, 2009 Prime Minister Taro Aso exchanged views on North Korea's (nuclear) problem with Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and other TOKYO 00001234 003 OF 013 senior U.S. government officials at the Prime Minister's Official Residence this morning. They agreed on the need to call on China and other countries involved in the Six-Party Talks to jointly make efforts to denuclearize North Korea. Aso emphasized: "I said this to President Obama as well, but this is a serious situation in which our neighbor is a country that has conducted a nuclear test." After the meeting, Steinberg indicated his confidence about obtaining China's cooperation in adopting a new UN Security Council resolution on North Korea's latest nuclear test. He said: "China is responding actively and has presented its own ideas. We will be able to take a common stance with China." (5) Kawamura presents outlook that Diet will be dissolved during current session MAINICHI ONLINE (Full) June 2, 2009 Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura presented in a press conference this morning an outlook that Prime Minister Taro Aso would dissolve the Diet during the current session. He specifically said in connection with the government's and the ruling coalition's decision to extend the current Diet session through July 28: "As far as our (House of Representative lawmakers) term is concerned, this is going to be the last Diet session. In that respect, we would like to bring this session to a successful conclusion." There is an option of convening an extraordinary session of the Diet in August and then dissolving the Diet instead of dissolving the Diet in the current session. Kawamura effectively ruled out that option. The Diet extension is expected to be decided at a Lower House plenary session this afternoon. (6) Extension of Diet session by 55 days: Prime minister demonstrating leadership in Diet dissolution, toning down image of "forced hand" NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) June 2, 2009 The ruling parties agreed on June 1 to extend the current Diet session by 55 days. By overruling the proposal to extend the session by more than 60 days, Prime Minister Taro Aso is attempting to demonstrate "leadership by the Prime Minister's Office Residence" as well as tone down the image of "dissolving the Diet after his hand was forced." Meanwhile, he has left the option of holding the election as late as early September open. However, it is unclear whether the mood for "postponing the dissolution of the House of Representatives" that has begun to spread in the ruling parties will subside. At a meeting of government and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) executives on the afternoon of June 1, Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima argued strongly that, "If we extend the session too much, it will only give an excuse to the DPJ to filibuster. We should go into the election in a dignified manner." The prime minister also nodded his approval. The LDP and New Komeito had agreed at a meeting of their secretaries general and Diet Affairs Committee chairmen on May 29 to extend the Diet session by over 60 days into mid-August, taking into account TOKYO 00001234 004 OF 013 the possibility of a second vote in the House of Representatives on the bills to amend the Development Bank of Japan Law and other legislations relating to the FY09 supplementary budget. The prime minister had also agreed to this plan. However, Oshima took steps to change the plan. He stated in Miyazaki City on May 31: "If you steer Diet affairs on the assumption from the beginning (that a second vote will be taken in the Lower House), there will be no sense of urgency." On that same evening, Aso also asked New Komeito leader Akihiro Ota to come to a top secret meeting at a hotel in Tokyo to exchange views on the strategy for Diet dissolution. One reason for this change of plan is the unexpected prevalence of the "mood for postponing dissolution." Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga, who is a close aide to Aso like Oshima, stated clearly in Sapporo City on May 31: "The prime minister's assessment that later is better is beginning to change." This resulted in widespread speculation that the election will take place on August 30, after the Obon holidays, or September 6. A senior New Komeito official explains that, "The prime minister might have been averse to such a mood." If the Diet session is adjourned sooner than early August, "there is a risk that the '60-day rule' may not be used for a second vote in the Lower House" and the bills related to the supplementary budget "may not be enacted" (senior LDP official). Yet Aso and Oshima still opted for demonstrating the prime minister's leadership rather than giving the impression of "being forced to dissolve the Diet." Meanwhile, the new Diet schedule is based on calculations to keep the option of dates for holding the Lower House election open "until the last minute before the expiration of the Lower House's term of office on September 10" (prime minister's aide). Article 31 of the Public Office Election Law stipulates that an election needs to be held "within 40 days of the dissolution" of the Lower House. If the Lower House is dissolved on July 28, the 40th day, counting from July 29, is September 6, which is the last Sunday before the end of the term of office. The result will, in effect, be the same as extending the Diet session for over 60 days. Some ruling party members see the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle with the shortening of the Diet session because a reshuffle normally takes place when the Diet is not in session. A number of ruling party officials visited the prime minister at his official quarters in late May and advised him to revamp the cabinet and the LDP executives. (7) Diet dissolution strategy still undecided; Diet session extended for 55 days until late July ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) Prime Minister Taro Aso has decided to extend the regular Diet session for 55 days until July 28. The duration of the Diet session is closely linked with the schedule for the dissolution of the House of Representatives. By shortening the originally planned "over 60 days" of extension, Aso intends to dodge allegations of "postponing Diet dissolution" and tighten unity in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Meanwhile, there is a proposal in the ruling parties to call an extraordinary Diet session for the purpose of dissolving the Lower House in August following the Obon holidays after the regular TOKYO 00001234 005 OF 013 Diet session is adjourned in July. Is the prime minister still undecided on his strategy for Diet dissolution? Scenario 1: Election on August 9 - concern about chance of winning after Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election Holding the election on August 9 by dissolving the Diet right after the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (TMA) election on July 12 is regarded as the most likely schedule among the ruling parties. The plan is to dissolve the Diet after the prime minister displays his "Aso diplomacy" at the G-8 Summit in Italy, July 8-10. A second vote on the tax reform bills will also be possible by July 12. While there is also another proposal in the LDP to dissolve the Diet before the Tokyo election and hold the general election on August 2, this is opposed by New Komeito, on grounds that "election cooperation between the LDP and New Komeito will collapse," (senior New Komeito official). If voter turnout in the Tokyo election goes up as a result of Diet dissolution, this may disadvantage New Komeito, which relies heavily on organized votes. The majority opinion in the ruling parties is that "dissolution will take place right after the TMA election, at the earliest." Aso has maintained that "dissolution should ideally take place after the enactment of the bills related to the supplementary budget." There is no guarantee that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will pass these bills in the House of Councillors by the time the TMA election is held, but the prime minister does not insist on passing all the bills either, so it is believed that this will not be a major constraint on the Diet dissolution decision. The question is the chance of winning. The support rating of the DPJ has recovered with the election of Yukio Hatoyama as president. There are many causes for concern, such as a repeat performance of a "wavering Aso" on the question of dividing up the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. If the ruling parties fail to win a majority in the Tokyo election, or the DPJ replaces the LDP as the number one party, calls for postponing Diet dissolution are certain to grow. August 9 is also the anniversary of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki, so there are people who are negative about this date. LDP Election Strategy Council chief Makoto Koga says: "This will be unlikely based on common practice." Scenario 2: Election on August 30 or September 6 - last chance for prime minister to show initiative With the substantial extension of the Diet session, the schedule of dissolving the Diet at the end of its session on July 28 and holding the election on August 30 or September 6 has suddenly gained prominence among the ruling parties. On the evening of May 29, after the supplementary budget was passed, Yoshihide Suga, vice chairman of the LDP Election Strategy Council, gave the following advice to Aso: "The more time you have before the election, the more the support rating will rise." In addition to the expectation that the effects of the economic stimulation measures will be visible by summer, the "congratulatory mood" toward the DPJ will subside. New Komeito also welcomes dissolution at the end of the Diet session. It prefers having the election on August 30 rather than on August 9, so that it is as far apart as possible from the TMA TOKYO 00001234 006 OF 013 election. An aborted plan by the ruling parties to extend the Diet session to early August was actually the idea of New Komeito. Meanwhile, the prime minister had wanted to extend the Diet session only to July 25, fearing the heightened mood for postponing Diet dissolution may weaken his leadership. However, since a general election has to be held within 40 days of dissolution, this will mean that holding the election on September 6 will no longer be an option. In the end, he decided on July 28, so that both August 30 and September 6 will remain options for holding the general election. There is a reason why "September 6 is the time limit" for Aso. Although dissolution can take place anytime before the end of the Lower House members' term of office on September 10 under the law, if the election is held after the term of office expires, this will give a stronger impression of an "indecisive (on when to dissolve the Diet) prime minister." Scenario 3: Election on October 18 at the latest - "moves to topple Aso" may rekindle A senior LDP official close to Aso indicated on June 1 that, "It is possible to adjourn the current Diet session and then call an extraordinary session to dissolve the Diet," which means the dissolution of the Diet at an extraordinary session convened in August or later is an option. In this case, the election can take place between mid-September and October 18, if the Diet is dissolved on the day the Lower House's term of office expires. There is talk in the ruling parties that if the right timing is not found during the current Diet session, the cabinet should be reshuffled in August to present a fresh lineup and then go into the election. However, dissolving the Diet at such an extraordinary session is much more likely to be perceived as "dissolution after being driven into a corner." Not only that, the prime minister's leadership may weaken further with a defeat in the Tokyo election, declining approval rating, and other factors, and moves in the ruling parties to "topple Aso" may rekindle. There is even a possibility that Aso may be forced to step down before the extraordinary Diet session. LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima told reporters unequivocally on June 1: "The prime minister will decide (on dissolution) within the 55 days (of the current Diet session). By political conventions, it is not desirable to convene a new session to dissolve the Diet." This was a statement made out of concern about such a possibility. When asked on the evening of June 1 about the possibility of dissolving the Diet by convening an extraordinary session, the prime minister would only say: "Of course, we need to think about different things in relation to Diet dissolution. I will make my decision after considering various factors." (8) First meeting of top DPJ, Nippon Keidanren leaders in three years seen to be in anticipation of Lower House election NIKKEI (Page 3) (Full) June 2, 2009 TOKYO 00001234 007 OF 013 Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama and Nippon Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) Chairman Fujio Mitarai held the first policy consultation between the top leaders of the two organizations in three years at the Keidanren Hall in Tokyo on June ¶1. While they were unable to narrow their gaps on such key issues as the consumption tax hike and global warming prevention measures, this meeting gave hints to each side's thinking on the next House of Representatives election. The first policy consultation between the DPJ and Nippon Keidanren took place in 2005, and this latest one was the fifth session. About 300 Nippon Keidanren members attended this session, which exceeded the seating capacity. Former president Ichiro Ozawa was absent in the 2007 and 2008 sessions. At the beginning of his speech, Mitarai asked that "the ruling and opposition parties compete with their policies." Hatoyama first apologized for (Ozawa's) absence for two years and said that, "We would like to ask for your cooperation in replacing old politics in Japan with new politics." Gaps on consumption tax, environment However, the two sides were clearly divided on specific policies. On the issue of social security policy, Nippon Keidanren pointed out the need to increase the consumption tax rate at an early date to secure revenue sources. Masayuki Naoshima, chair of the DPJ's Policy Research Committee, argued that, "There is no need to hike consumption tax within four years of our party coming into power," although he left the possibility of a future tax hike open. On environmental issues, the DPJ advocated the reduction of greenhouse gases by 25 PERCENT by 2020, compared to 1990 levels, while Nippon Keidanren opted for a 4 PERCENT increase. Their positions remained irreconcilable. After the meeting, Hatoyama told reporters: "We are now more convinced that Keidanren's position is quite different from ours." The failure to narrow policy gaps had been expected. Nippon Keidanren has been rating 20-30 policy proposals of political parties on a scale of five. In 2008, 10 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) policies were given the highest mark, but none for the DPJ. In 2007, while corporate donations to the LDP were over 2.9 billion yen, the DPJ received only 80 million yen. DPJ can no longer be ignored Nevertheless, the fact that the top leaders of both sides met again for the first time in three years is an indication of a certain change in thinking. Nippon Keidanren's links with the LDP remain strong. As Mitarai noted, "Policies proposed (by Keidanren) to the government and the ruling parties have mostly been reflected in the additional economic stimulation measures." However, as the LDP's political base becomes shaky in the run-up to the next general election, the DPJ can no longer be ignored. The DPJ is currently doubling up its efforts to flesh out its manifesto for the election, so for Nippon Keidanren, this was the last chance to make a direct push for its policies before the manifesto is finalized. Meanwhile, one reason why the DPJ "staged" this policy consultation TOKYO 00001234 008 OF 013 with Nippon Keidanren is its desire to shake up the LDP. The DPJ began policy consultations with Nippon Keidanren when Katsuya Okada was president in an attempt to tone down its reliance on labor unions, but Ozawa had refused to attend these meetings since the House of Councillors election in 2007. In an effort to beef up the DPJ's weak local organizations, Ozawa had made every effort to strengthen relations with Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation),which has a membership of 6.75 million. "We have won more votes by strengthening ties with Rengo and taking a clear stand against bureaucrats and the business sector." (senior DPJ official) Hatoyama and Rengo Chairman Tsuyoshi Takagi and other senior Rengo officials will begin a joint regional stumping tour on June 7, which will take them to around 10 locations nationwide for public meetings. It seems that the party has also judged that even if it holds policy consultations with Nippon Keidanren, this will not affect its cooperation with Rengo. (9) Editorial: Designation of new U.S. ambassador to Japan: First step toward building new relationship with Obama administration YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full) June 2, 2009 Lawyer John Roos, 54, has been nominated as the new U.S. ambassador to Japan. He is scheduled to arrive at the post in Japan as early as this summer after obtaining Senate approval. We hope this will become the first step toward building a new relationship with the Obama administration. Harvard University Professor Joseph Nye was initially regarded as a leading candidate for the post of ambassador to Japan. Nye, who served in such posts as assistant secretary of defense, is a prominent Japan expert comparable to former deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage. There were expectations for "Ambassador Nye" on the Japanese side as well. In the past, many former political heavyweights served as U.S. ambassador to Japan. The position was also filled by individuals of all sorts of occupations, such as diplomats, the president's friends, and business leaders. Being knowledgeable about Japan has not been a requirement. Apparently the State Department backed Mr. Nye but presidential aides at the White House supported Roos, who played a major role in fundraising during the presidential race, turning the tables for Roos. Persons who contributed to (Obama's victory) in the presidential race were also nominated as ambassadors to such countries as Britain, France, and India. Lacking experience in foreign affairs, Roos' abilities as ambassador are unknown, but reportedly his strength lies in his extremely close ties to President Obama. It is also said that the President has the highest authority in Washington and that his close friends hold second place. This means that being close to the President with ultimate authority and being able to wield influence is vitally important in the U.S. political world. TOKYO 00001234 009 OF 013 Former ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer was a prime example. He was a co-owner of a Major League baseball club with former President George W. Bush and could call the president up on the phone and speak to him directly. Taking a strong interest in the issue of Japanese abducted (by North Korea),the former ambassador realized a meeting (in 2006) between the Association of the Families of Victims Kidnapped by North Korea and then President Bush. Playing an active role in the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan, the former ambassador also worked hard to enhance Japan-U.S. relations. It is unproductive to speculate from Mr. Roos' appointment whether the Obama administration attaches importance to Japan or slights it. The important thing is for (Japan) to work in close cooperation with the Obama administration's Japan and Asia team, including the next ambassador (to Japan) and to steadily deal with mounting challenges. North Korea is preparing for yet another missile launch following the launches of ballistic missiles and a nuclear test. North Korea's nuclear and missile programs will be the biggest issue for the Japan-U.S. alliance for the foreseeable future. How (is the Obama administration) going to face China, which is rapidly increasing its presence? How is it going to stabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan in the war on terrorism? How is it going to address the global environment and energy issues? President Obama is slated to visit Japan for the first time later this year, and next year marks the 50th anniversary of the conclusion of the revised U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. In order to make the bilateral alliance firmer, concrete results must be achieved. (10) Mechanism to set date for Lower House election: TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) June 2, 2009 Regarding the timing for the next House of Representatives election, various options are being suggested. With the expiration of the Lower House members' term of office now just around the corner, two types of election are conceivable: an election resulting from Diet dissolution or one resulting from the expiration of the term of lawmakers. So the mechanism to set the voting date is complicated. In this column, the Tokyo Shimbun explains the mechanism. Let's look first at the case in which an election is carried out as a consequence of the expiration of members' term. Article 31 of the Public Offices Election Law stipulates that an election should be held during a 30-day period before the day of expiration. Since the expiration day is Sept. 10 this time, the equivalent period is between Aug. 11 and Sept. 9. Paragraph 2 of Article 31 also stipulates that a general election must be held sometime during a weeklong period between 24 days and 30 days after a Diet session ends, if the period in which the election must be held coincides with a Diet session or is within 23 days after the end of the session. These complicated regulations were introduced, with consideration TOKYO 00001234 010 OF 013 given to incumbent lawmakers, because in the case of an election held on a date close to the expiration day, incumbent lawmakers cannot take enough time for campaigning. The government decided yesterday to extend the current Diet session through July 28. Since the period for an election stemming from the expiration of lawmakers' term will start within 23 days after the end of the session, the election will be held sometime during a period between 24 days and 30 days after the end of the session. During this period, Aug. 23 is the only possible Sunday for the election. Even so, this idea is unlikely to be turned into reality, because it is inconceivable from a commonsense in the political world that the election campaign period includes the nationwide Bon holidays. In light of this, the upcoming Lower House election is expected to be held as a consequence of Diet dissolution, not as a consequence of the expiration of lawmakers' term. In this case, the Diet can be dissolved anytime. If the Lower House is dissolved on July 28 as decided yesterday, it will be possible to set the voting date even for Sept. 6, based on Paragraph 3 of the Public Offices Election Law, which stipulates that an election should be held within 40 days after the Lower House is dissolved. There also can be a 'trick,' which is to close the current Diet session and then to open an extraordinary session. Resorting to this tactic, if the Diet convenes this extraordinary session until Sept. 10 when the current term expires, and if the Lower House is dissolved then, it will become possible to put off the election up until Oct. 18. (11) Greenhouse gas emissions: UN taskforce meeting on Post-Kyoto Protocol international framework; Japan, U.S. to propose mandating emerging countries to cut carbon dioxide emissions NIKKEI (Page 5) (Full) June 2, 2009 Shogo Akagawa, Bonn A UN taskforce meeting to discuss a post-Kyoto Protocol international framework to curb global warming to be adopted in 2013 started in Bonn in western Germany on June 1. Whether to mandate emerging countries, which are increasingly emitting greenhouse gases as their economies grow, to cut emissions will likely become a pillar of the talks. However, emerging countries are insisting that such mandatory cuts should be premised on substantial cuts by Japan, the U.S. and European countries. With the negotiation deadline passing in six months' time, bargaining among the various countries will likely become increasingly fierce. The meeting brought together more than 4,300 participants from roughly 180 countries and areas. Meeting the press, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretary Yvo de Boer expressed his hope that Japan, the U.S. and European countries will reach a decision to significantly cut carbon dioxide. He said, "It is necessary for industrialized countries to become ambitious." He also said that it is imperative for emerging countries to commit themselves to the global warming issue. He thus clarified his stance, indicating that it is necessary for both industrialized countries and emerging countries to make concessions in order to TOKYO 00001234 011 OF 013 find a breakthrough in the talks. The taskforce incorporated in the UN draft, released in May, a proposal that developing countries, which are not obligated to cut carbon dioxide emissions under the current Kyoto Protocol, voluntarily map out a reduction plan. This will serve as a draft for a post-Kyoto Protocol framework. Japan and the U.S. during the Bonn UN Climate Change Talks will call on mandating emerging countries, such as China and India, to reduce emissions, by demarcating them from developing countries. However, emerging countries are bound to oppose this proposal. China is expected to announce its view that further emissions reductions by industrialized countries are a precondition. China could suggest that Japan, the U.S. and European countries cut more than 40 PERCENT from the 1990 level by 2020. The European Union (EU) has plans to cut such emissions by 20 PERCENT as its goal. The U.S. mid-term goal is to constrain such emissions to a level equivalent to that of the 1990 level. Japan will release a specific plan by mid-June. Secretary de Boer during the press briefing pointed out, "To what extent industrialized countries will reduce their emissions will hold the key." However, various countries and areas cannot easily accept strict conditions presented by emerging countries. The ongoing meeting will continue until the 12th. The UN wants to reach a final decision at the 15th session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention (COP15) to be held in Copenhagen in December. A participant representing Russia at the outset of the meeting called on the industrialized group -- Japan, the U.S. and the EU - and emerging countries to make concessions, saying, "A global agreement is essential." Government holds meeting to discuss measures to curb global warming: Cabinet ministers discuss mid-term goal but remain far apart The government held a cabinet ministerial meeting yesterday to discuss measures to curb global warming. Participants discussed a mid-term goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions to be achieved by ¶2020. There are six options ranging from a 4 PERCENT increase to a 25 PERCENT decrease in comparison with the 1990 level or from a 4 PERCENT cut to a 30 PERCENT cut in comparison with the 2005 level. No conclusion was reached with the participants remaining far apart. However, they agreed to make 1995 the base year for comparing emissions cuts. (12) NPA, Internet service providers to tackle child porn issue YOMIURI (Page 35) (Full) June 1, 2009 The National Police Agency (NPA) will launch a council on June 2 with Internet service providers aimed at tackling online child pornography by persuading the ISPs to undertake "Net-blocking" systems at their own discretion. The Net-blocking systems prevent broadband users from accessing illegal websites. The NPA's aim is to halt the present situation in which users copy images from illegal websites and disseminate them to other similar sites. The NPA will begin demonstration experiments as early as the next fiscal year TOKYO 00001234 012 OF 013 with the private sector to examine technical and related issues. Japan has been criticized by the international community for lagging behind other industrialized countries in measures against child porn due to slow legislative action. All eyes are on whether Japan can clear its tarnished image. When the Kanagawa Prefectural Police cracked down on the child porn website "Sakuranbo Jogakuin" last September, a senior investigator realized that he had seen one of the videos posted on the site before. In March 2005, the prefectural police arrested a man on suspicion of violating the Child Welfare Law in connection with a video he allegedly recorded. An 11-year-old girl, who was tricked by the man, was featured in the video. The police found that a child pornography fanatic posted the images of the girl that were subsequently posted on the Internet. The Sakuranbo Jogakuin site, which was launched in May 2005, is a popular website. This site was accessed about 50,000 times a day on average. It received a total of 61.55 million hits until it was unmasked. Even after the police exposed, the images and videos continued to be copied. In the case of the images of the 11-year-old girl, the police confirmed that there were more than 100,000 images with the same title by checking Internet search sites. According to the NPA, there was a record high of 245 cases involving online child porn last year. As in the Sakuranbo Jogakuin case, fanatics exchanged child porn images and disseminated them across the Internet. The blocking system enables providers to forbid access to blacklisted sites. The lists are drawn up with help from the police, and block access to sites known to feature child pornography. The system, which also covers overseas websites, is expected to be a valuable tool in breaking the vicious circle in which users access child porn data, download the data onto personal computers, and repost the data on other similar sites. At least ten other countries have introduced similar blocking systems. In Japan, a bill amending the Law for Punishing Acts Related to Child Prostitution and Child Pornography, including a measure to improve blocking technologies, were submitted to the Diet last June, but Diet deliberations on the bills have encountered difficulties. The NPA, therefore, intends to adopt as its model the British blocking system, which relies on self-imposed restrictions by Internet service providers'. The NPA plans to use the council as a forum to discuss technology and legislation with the aim of encouraging the private sector to operate the blocking system of its own accord. As the system also applies to websites accessible via cell phone, the NPA will ask cell phone companies to cooperate with the scheme. Major recent online child porn cases Period of police crackdown Contents of case Scale of website or number of times accessed September 2008 - March 2009 Kanagawa Prefectural Police arrested 17 people, including the person who launched the Sakuranbo Jogakuin website, and sent two of the cases to the public prosecutor. TOKYO 00001234 013 OF 013 Accessed about 50,000 times per day November 2008 Saitama Prefectural Police arrested three people, including a company worker, 37, who used file transfer software to allow videos of child porn to circulate to websites in Japan and abroad. Accessed 10,000 to 30,000 times per day February 2009 Fukuoka Prefectural Police and Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department arrested eight people, including a company president, 41, who distributed videos on a membership child porn site. Membership of 6,000 May 2009 Kanagawa Prefectural Police arrested a 19-year-old boy who launched a child porn bulletin board on a cell phone site. Accessed about 5,000 times per day ZUMWALT

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