NEW DPJ PRESIDENT HATOYAMA KEEPS OZAWA IN KEY ROLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001124

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: NEW DPJ PRESIDENT HATOYAMA KEEPS OZAWA IN KEY ROLE

Classified By: CDA James P. Zumwalt, reasons 1.4(b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: Yukio Hatoyama's election as party President
over Katsuya Okada on May 16 and his appointment of outgoing
President Ichiro Ozawa to a senior position signals a
continuation in the status quo for the opposition DPJ,
according to Embassy contacts, and should result in few
changes in policy or internal party management. Hatoyama was
quick to include Okada in the new party management structure
in an attempt to keep anti-Ozawa forces within the party in
check, and may seek to exploit Okada's broader popularity
among the public in the run-up to the next Lower House
election. The DPJ has enjoyed a slight bump in public
support, according to media polls, but ruling coalition
members tell the Embassy they believe Hatoyama will be easier
to attack than Okada. End Summary.


2. (C) Yukio Hatoyama was elected President of the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) on May 16 by a vote of 124 to

95. Speaking to the press shortly after his victory, he
announced his intention to appoint his opponent, Katsuya
Okada, to succeed him as Secretary General. Acknowledging
Okada's strong support within the party, Hatoyama said he
hoped Okada's appointment would help maintain party unity.
In a more controversial move, Hatoyama also indicated plans
to appoint outgoing party President Ichiro Ozawa to the newly
created position of Acting President for Election Strategy, a
position that out-ranks the Secretary General. Rounding out
his new leadership slate, Hatoyama said he would retain
Acting Presidents Naoto Kan and Azuma Koshiishi in their
current positions, raising the number of senior party
executives from four to five.


3. (C) Okada's appointment was "essential" to uniting the
party, a media contact told the Embassy May 18, and may help
to attract unaffiliated voters to the party. Hatoyama's
decision to leave the basic leadership structure intact,
however, will disappoint those who saw the party presidential
election as a chance to clean house and erase any negative
stigma from Ozawa's three-year reign. Hatoyama was quick to
justify the move by noting that Ozawa "has won one election
after another" for the DPJ and would "continue assuming the
role in overseeing elections." Reflecting the general mood
that not much has changed, the press is already utilizing the
term "troika plus one" to refer to Hatoyama's management
team, building on the term popularized under Ozawa's
leadership when he was seen to rule the party in cooperation
with Hatoyama and Kan.


4. (C) An early task for Hatoyama will be to overcome the
popular perception that he is Ozawa's "puppet" and
demonstrate that he is actually running the show at DPJ
headquarters. He will also need to convince the members of
his own party that he can be as effective as his predecessor
in maintaining a certain sense of cohesion to the DPJ as it
seeks to take power in the next Lower House election. The
unanswered question is whether he can harness the anti-Ozawa
forces that supported the younger Okada. Many are reportedly
angry that the presidential election was held so quickly,
leaving no time for public debate and robbing the party of an
opportunity to capitalize on Okada's wider support among the
general public. Some consulate contacts at the local DPJ
chapters have already registered their dissatisfaction that
the party rank and file were excluded from the election.
Nevertheless, Hatoyama is regarded by many Embassy contacts
as a better choice than Okada for taking on Ozawa's role of
holding together the disparate policy groups within the
party.


5. (C) Leaders of the People's New Party and Social
Democratic Party were supportive of Hatoyama in statements
after his election, but noted the disconnect between Ozawa's
resignation and his reappointment to a senior post. The
media has generally characterized Okada as less flexible in
dealing with the DPJ's loose coalition partners in the
opposition, one reason that Hatoyama was seen as a better

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choice for the leader's position at this stage.


6. (C) Hatoyama's election "could not be helped if the DPJ
wants to win the election," a media contact told the Embassy
May 18. Like most of our contacts, he thought the leadership
change would improve the party's electoral prospects.
Replacing the scandal-tainted Ozawa was already expected to
give the DPJ at least a temporary boost in popularity, and
initial media polls support that thesis. In polls conducted
by all of the major media outlets on May 17, respondents
selected Hatoyama over PM Aso as "more appropriate" to serve
as Prime Minister by as many as 13 points, and the DPJ over
the LDP as the party they would vote for in the next Lower
House election by as much as 13 percent. Both are a clear
reversal of the trends since the first week of March. Fewer
than 50 percent of respondents to any of the polls indicated
they had any real expectations for Hatoyama's leadership,
however, a point that several Embassy contacts thought was
particularly important in assessing the real impact of the
change.


7. (C) Regardless of the short-term impact, Hatoyama's
election over Okada is seen by members of the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party as an advantage. Not only can they attack
Hatoyama on his past support for Ozawa, LDP insiders say, but
they can continue to attack Ozawa himself for his continuing
influence over the party in his new role. Okada, with his
image as a "clean" politician, would have presented a more
difficult target. He also would have been more popular with
the public.


8. (C) Hatoyama, 62, is a seven-term Lower House member
representing Hokkaido's ninth district. First elected in
1986 on the LDP ticket, he joined a group of ruling party
members who left to form New party Sakigake in 1993, before
establishing the precursor of the DPJ with Naoto Kan in 1996.
He was elected President of the newly reorganized party in
1999 and served for three years, before stepping down to take
responsibility for the "confusion" surrounding the eventual
merger of the DPJ with Ozawa's Liberal Party in 1993.
Hatoyama is a fourth-generation politician and the grandson
of former Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama, a data point that
conflicts with his party's campaign promise to end dynastic
politics. He is married to a former actress and has one son.
He studied at Stanford University and speaks some English.
Hatoyama has said little about policy in his role as Ozawa's
lieutenant over the past three years. Although considered a
conservative on security issues, especially in comparison to
Okada, Hatoyama has generally maintained the party line that
Japan is overly dependant on the United States and needs to
build a more equal partnership.
ZUMWALT