FORMERPRESIDENTS PESSIMISTIC ON THE FUTURE UNDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L TIRANA 000081

SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS KDDEM AL
SUBJECT: FORMERPRESIDENTS PESSIMISTIC ON THE FUTURE UNDER
BERISA

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN L. WITHERS II FR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d
).


1. (C) Summary: uri(ng a February 3 lunch with Ambassador,
formerPPresidents Alfred Moisiu and Rexhep Mehdani delivee d
a very pessimistic view of Albania's politica future. Both
warned strongly that Albania is headed in the wrong direction
and declared that PM e risha will do "anything" to stay in
power, including "fixing" the June parliamentary elections.
They described the lustration law as a blatant attack on the
judiciary and maintained that its effects are already being
felt. In this environment, they said the opposition should
have a good opportunity to win the upcoming elections, but
internal divisions threaten chances of an outright victory.
Given the prominence and esteem with which Moisiu and Mehdani
are held, (both are seen as non-partisan senior statesmen)
their pessimism does not bode well for the coming year. End
summary.


2. (C) On February 3, Ambassador hosted former Presidents
Alfred Moisiu and Rexhep Mehdani for a very frank and open
discussion on the status of Albanian politics. The two
conveyed feelings of alarm and urgency about the current
political environment and believe strongly that Albania is
heading on a "dangerous" course. Moisiu in particular said
that he feels PM Sali Berisha is repeating many of the
mistakes he committed in the past and said Berisha will do
"anything," including electoral fraud, to stay in power. At
one point Moisiu said that PM Berisha is worse than former PM
Fatos Nano in tolerating corruption among his family members
and within his inner government circle. (Comment: Nano, four
times the PM, is rumored to be the most corrupt figure in
Albanian politics. End comment.)

LUSTRATION LAW BEGINNING TO HAVE AN EFFECT
--------------


3. (C) Regarding the lustration law, both see it as an attack
on the judiciary and Moisiu said that it is already having an
effect. He said judges are intimidated and it is likely that
judges will avoid making any rulings that would displease
Berisha in the high profile cases concerning Gerdec, Fazlic,
and the Durres-Kukes road construction. He was particularly
concerned that the Constitutional Court, which will render a
ruling on the lustration law in the coming days, may feel
sufficiently threatened to tailor its ruling in Berisha's
favor. He added that recent lower court rulings favoring FM
Basha in the Durres-Kukes case made no sense legally and on
the contrary, showed the courts caving in to the PM's
pressure.

DIVISIONS IN OPPOSITION COULD SEAL BERISHA'S VICTORY
-------------- ---


4. (C) Both former Presidents offered that the opposition
could win the upcoming elections if it were united. However,
the opposition's internal divisions threaten to derail its
chances at victory. They also noted that the ruling party
has divisions too and Moisiu pointed out that many in the
Democratic Party are upset with what he termed "Berisha's
family government." They both thought the economy could play
a very large role in the upcoming elections, with Mehdani
saying that the economy could stumble over the next few
months thus handing the disorganized opposition an
opportunity to win the elections, assuming it resolved its
differences. That said, although both implied that opposition
leader Edi Rama is a preferable alternative to Berisha, they
believe that he is untested, particularly on the
international stage.


5. (C) Finally, the two urged the U.S. to take an active role
in speaking out against Berisha's democratic backsliding.
Moisiu was very passionate on this theme and said he regards
the democratic backsliding as an international issue because,
in his view, without a stable, democratic Albania, regional
security could be endangered.


6. (C) Comment: Moisiu and Mehdani are elder statesmen of
Albanian politics and are considered to be as non-partisan as
one could be here. Both are widely respected and they
continue to play a stabilizing role in the political scene.
Given their stature, it was telling to hear these
overwhelmingly pessimistic views and surprising how strongly
they feel that Albania is heading down the wrong path in
terms of judicial independence and democratic pluralism.
Both were in agreement on nearly all the issues, and were
very animated and passionate as they gave their opinions and
analysis. Such pessimism from men of such standing does not
seem to bode well for the coming year.
WITHERS