DP Declares Victory; Early Lessons from the Election

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000440

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AL

SUBJECT: DP Declares Victory; Early Lessons from the Election


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: At this point it is likely that Sali Berisha's
Democratic Party (DP) coalition will emerge as the winner of the
June 28. According to unofficial election results, the DP coalition
has secured at least 70 seats, making the coalition the largest
single coalition, and the Democratic Party the largest single party
in terms of seats (68 seats vs. 65 for the opposition SP). On July
1, a candidate from the left-wing Socialist Movement for Integration
(LSI) party announced that he is willing to join the DP coalition,
which if true would apparently give Berisha and the DP coalition 71
seats (although this won't be official until the CEC certifies the
election results, a process that could take weeks). Although the
results themselves could take weeks to sort out, several broader
trends from the election have already become apparent, including a
dangerous over-politicization of the entire political process,
consolidation of power into the hands of the two main parties, and
the continued ability of a unified right wing to outfox a divided
left. The bigger question for us, however, is how such a weak
majority can govern effectively, let alone achieve the reforms we
and this country needs. END SUMMARY.

Unofficial Results
--------------


2. (SBU) Unofficially, PM Berisha's Democratic Party coalition has
secured 70 seats, compared to 66 for the opposition SP and 4 for
left-wing SP rival LSI. Even though 70 seats is one short of the 71
needed for a majority in the parliament, the 70 seats for the DP
coalition gives the DP the advantage in forming the new government.
If the CEC eventually certifies the election outcome, DP will have
the first opportunity to form a government when the new parliament
convenes in early September. On July 1, an LSI candidate announced
publicly that he is willing to join the DP coalition, theoretically
giving the DP 71 seats. However, this declaration amounts to little
more than a gentlemen's agreement until the CEC certifies the
election results - including the fact that the LSI candidate
actually has a seat to give to the DP - a process that could take
weeks. DP Spokesperson Majlinda Bregu hinted at this supposed LSI
defection when she declared victory for the DP coalition on July 1,
claiming (without giving details) that the DP had secured 71 seats.


Divided the Left Falls - Again
--------------

3. (SBU) Berisha assembled a 17-party coalition for the election,
while the SP cobbled together only five parties. More fatally, the
SP and its left-wing rival LSI were unable to come to terms prior to
the election, forcing the two parties to run as separate coalitions.
Altogether, the SP and LSI coalitions totaled 11 parties. Taken as
a whole, these left wing parties received 51 percent of all votes
cast, vs. 47 percent for the DP coalition. Had SP and LSI run
together in one coalition, they almost certainly would have won the
election. On an individual party vs. party basis, the SP outpolled
the DP by the slimmest of margins, 40.85 percent to 39.99 percent.







Over-politicization of Everything
--------------


4. (SBU) ODIHR's preliminary assessment praised the professionalism
of the Central Election Commission, but criticized the CEC for being
divided along party lines. The ODIHR report further criticized
local election commissions and local government for excessive
politicization of the local election commissions. The local
commissions, which are formed of members that are nominated by the
parties, quickly became divided along political lines, and parties
choose commission members not on the basis of integrity or
competence, but rather on loyalty towards the party. Although the
local commissions, as well as the bi-partisan vote counting teams,
have generally worked well together, even minor disputes quickly
flare into political stalemates as the parties begin giving orders
to their respective commissioners.


5. (SBU) ODIHR also cited numerous cases where the government
(mainly the DP-lead central government, and in fewer cases SP-lead
municipal governments) pressured state employees and school children
to participate in campaign rallies, as well as to vote a certain

TIRANA 00000440 002 OF 002


way. The Berisha government, and to a lesser extent Edi Rama as
Mayor of Tirana, used government events such as ribbon cuttings as
campaign events, complete with party flags and banners. In
addition, DP heavyweights such as Foreign Minister Basha and
Transportation Minister Olldashi apparently used ministry vehicles
and other resources in running their campaigns in Elbasan and Fier,
respectively.

Death of the Small Parties
--------------


6. (SBU) As predicted by many political analysts (and the smaller
political parties themselves),the new electoral code proved to be a
disaster for the smaller political parties. When the new parliament
convenes in September, the DP and SP will control at least 133 of
the 140 seats, as opposed to only 100 of 140 seats in the prior
parliament. Of the 37 parties that contested the elections, only
four received more than two percent of the vote. Whereas the PD and
SP each received 40 percent, the next largest party, LSI, received
only 4.8 percent of the vote. If the current results stand, SP will
control 65 of the 66 seats received by its coalition.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: There will be much more backroom dealing and
wheeling in weeks to come as the CEC moves towards certifying the
elections and allocating seats. All the while, Sali Berisha will
use all means necessary to lure more deputies into his coalition.
The SP has already stated publicly that they will challenge the
election results in at least two districts. Although this comes as
no surprise, it could drag out the certifying process as the CEC
reviews each complaint. Fortunately, the CEC has plenty of
experience in adjudicating electoral challenges, and the complaint
process is clearly laid out in the law, provided the CEC members
don't succumb to their partisan instincts.


8. (SBU) COMMENT CONT'D: A larger problem for USG interests is how
effective such a narrowly-divided political system can be.
Important legislation, including reform measures crucial to us,
often require an 84-seat super-majority in Parliament - hard to
achieve in the currently bitterly partisan atmosphere. The DP
coalition may barely cling to power, but to its governing
mechanisms, not so much.