SUBJECT: WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE ELECTIONS?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TIRANA 000417

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PHUM AL
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE ELECTIONS?

REF: TIRANA 164


1. (SBU) Summary: With only three days until the
elections, the question of what happens afterwards is being
discussed more frequently, and in some cases, with increasing
concern. If no one party or coalition wins an outright
majority of
71 seats on June 28, they will have two months to try and
cobble together a majority before the new parliament convenes
on September 3. As the elections appear quite close, much
discussion has centered around how parties or coalitions
will be able to form a majority in the new parliament
should no one group win a majority. Former PM Ilir Meta,
leader of the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI),
still views himself as the kingmaker, but it is also
possible to have a "minority" government if no agreement
can be reached. President Topi will also play a key role,
in that the President has the constitutional authority to
officially invite a party or coalition to form a government.
End summary.

FIRST, THE CONSTITUTION
--------------


2. (SBU) According to the Constitution, the party or
coalition of parties that has the majority of seats in the
assembly must propose a candidate for Prime Minister (PM)
to the President, who would then appoint this candidate as
PM, pending parliamentary approval. If the parliament
approves this candidate, he is the new Prime Minister. If
the parliament for whatever reason does not approve this
name, the President must then appoint another PM within ten
days. In the odd case that this candidate is also not
approved
by the parliament, it must elect another candidate
for PM, but if it cannot do so then the President dissolves
the Assembly and calls for early elections.

SECOND, THE NEW ELECTORAL CODE
--------------


3. (SBU) This election is the first held under a new
electoral code, which was passed in December 2008. Under
the new system, citizens will vote for parties, not
candidates,
and then votes will be allocated on a regional-proportional
basis to the competing parties. The parties will then
allocate the votes to their candidates which are rank
ordered on party lists. In order to obtain a majority, and
thereby be eligible to elect the Prime Minister, a party
must win at least 71 parliamentary seats. In the event no
one party wins 71 seats, the coalition that is able to pull
together 71 seats will have the opportunity to form a new
government, and elect the next PM.

THIRD, CONFUSION OVER WHO GETS TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Despite (or because of) the code and the
Constitution, many areas of contention remain, some known
and some still unknown. One major area of disagreement is
the definition of "party" and "coalition" in the
Constitution. Some interpret these to mean electoral
"parties" or "coalitions" (meaning coalitions formed prior
to the election for the specific purpose of running in the
election together as a coalition) whereas others interpret
these to mean parliamentary "parties" or "coalitions"
(meaning groups of MPs or coalitions of parties formed after
the election, for the purposes of getting enough MPs together
reach 71 seats). If one interprets it the first way, as DP
strategist and constitutional lawyer Ilir Rusmajli does, the
pre-electoral coalition that wins a plurality of seats will
receive the first exclusive opportunity (first invitation
from
the President) to come to try and form a government. Taking
the
latter interpretation, pre-election coalitions, parties, and
even individual parliamentary deputies are free to change
affiliations and form new coalitions, so any group that is
able to cobble together 71 votes by September 3 will be able
to form a new government. According to this interpretation
of the law, once the CEC certifies the election, each MP
essentially becomes a free agent, able to join whichever
party

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or coalition s/he so chooses (or makes the best offer).
Although
parties and even individual MPs are free to change their
affiliations at any time - as the Human Rights Party did
recently
when it left the DP ruling coalition in favor of the SP
coalition -
it is uncertain how changes in party and coalition
affiliation
after the election might affect who receives the first crack
at
forming a government. Regardless of legal interpretations,
it is
extremely unlikely that any party or coalition will calmly
stand
on the sidelines and allow the pre-electoral coalition or
party
with the plurality of seats to have exclusive rights to horse
trading and negotiating. It is much more likely that all
parties
will engage in back-door discussions and deals simultaneously
and
when September 3 rolls around, some party or coalition will
likely have been able to cobble together 71 seats. Given the
dueling interpretations of the law, a real problem could
arise
should one party receive a plurality of seats (but still
short
of a 71-seat majority) via the election, but then be
outmaneuvered
in terms of forming coalitions between the election and
convening
of Parliament. In such a case, two separate parties or
coalitions
could make a claim to the right to the first invitation to
form a
government, thereby putting President Topi on the (very) hot
seat.


5. (SBU) However if a majority is not reached by September
3, the formation of a "minority government" is possible
under the law. Under this scenario, if no one party or
coalition is able to garner a majority of 71 seats, the
party with the most seats would be asked to put forward a
name for the next PM. However, this is only possible if a
majority of MPs show up to parliament on September 3. If
other MPs decided to boycott the session for some reason
and a majority of MPs were not present, the parliament
would be dissolved. For his part,
Rusmajli said that while it is possible under the law to
have a minority government, it is highly unlikely. Artur
Metani, Legal Advisor to President Topi, tended to agree in
a separate conversation.


6. (SBU) Most observers, including Metani, have also
indicated that they expect numerous electoral challenges to
be fielded after Election Day. These challenges, according
to Metani and others, could take weeks to resolve and could
even
force electoral reruns in some regions if the challenges are
found to be valid. If the Constitutional Court has to be
brought in to resolve any significant impasses, it could add
weeks
or even months to the electoral process, according to Metani.

The Kingmaker(s) and I
--------------


7. (SBU) Legal uncertainty over who may get to form a
government
gives added power to former PM Ilir Meta and his LSI party.
Meta
has long fashioned himself as the kingmaker for this
election.
Although it is unlikely Meta would go into coalition with the
DP,
he could - for the right price - agree to allow some of his
party's
MPs join or not join an SP or DP coalition, thus potentially
giving
him the power to make or break a ruling coalition. The other
potential kingmaker will be President Topi. The apparent
legal
ambiguity, as well as uncertainty on the part of Topi's chief

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legal
advisor over how to interpret the law and constitution, mean
that
Topi could have a fair amount of discretion and leeway in
determining which party or coalition gets the first
invitation to
form a new government.

FOURTH, HOPE
--------------


8. (SBU) What is clear is that not much is clear. In the
event
no party wins an outright majority of 71 seats on June 28, we
could well see a legal and electoral free-for-all as parties,
coalitions and individual MPs maneuver for the magic 71.
These
are uncharted waters for Albania and this election will set a
precedent for some constitutional issues. Ominously, the
President's legal advisor gave conflicting interpretations of
the constitution and the law during a June 23 meeting, saying
at
one point that the Constitutional meaning of coalition is
"electoral" coalitions and then a few minutes later said that
coalitions means "parliamentary" coalitions. Metani's
overall
strategy appeared at times to be one of hope; hope that one
party wins an outright majority and makes all other possible
scenarios moot. But if the "hope" strategy does not work
and no one party/coalition receives the magic number of 71
seats, July and August, which are usually dull and hot, will
instead be exciting and hot as each party/coalition will be
scrambling to "encourage" other future MPs to join its
coalition and thereby take a majority. In the end, Metani
stressed the importance of these elections for Albania and
said they would be a real test of Albania's political
maturity.
He is right about that.
WITHERS