THE OUTLINES OF PM BERISHA'S ELECTION STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000035 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2018 TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV PHUM KCOR KJUS AL SUBJECT: THE OUTLINES OF PM BERISHA'S ELECTION STRATEGY Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Cristina, reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: With six months to go until the parliamentary elections, the rough outlines of Prime Minister Berisha's electoral strategy are becoming clearer. Berisha's election strategy seems, at least for now, to be focused on three pillars - anti-communism; vast government spending; and shutting off politically sensitive investigations that threaten to implicate members of Berisha's inner circle or family. Berisha will likely seek to use the anti-commuist mantra both to build support with key constituencies and to selectively tar opponents as soft on communism. Secondly, the GOA is clearly intent on spending vast sums between now and the elections on new infrastructure projects and increased pensions and salaries. Finally, and as he has been doing for months, Berisha will do anything necessary to head off further political embarrassment or indictment for members of his family and inner circle, using the recently passed Lustration Law to intimidate members of the judiciary and prosecutorial corps. END SUMMARY Anti-Communism as the New Anti-Corruption -------------- ¶2. (C) Berisha returned to power in 2005 on an anti-corruption theme. Despite some major successes in implementing systems that help prevent corruption, such as the e-Procurement and National Business Registry initiatives, the public perception is that Berisha's anti-corruption efforts have failed. Recent surveys have shown that, if anything, the public perception in Albania is that corruption is worse than it was four years ago. The indictment and impending trial of Foreign Minister Lulzim Basha on abuse of power charges stemming from his time as Minister of Transport, as well as alleged ties between Basha and Berisha's daughter with shady Bosnian businessman Damir Fazlic haven't helped matters. ¶3. (C) Instead, Berisha is ramping up an anti-communist drive, with the Lustration Law as its centerpiece. The real goal of the Lustration Law is to go after troublesome prosecutors and judges, but Berisha is painting the law as an effort to get justice for those Albanians that suffered under communism. As icijg on the cake and to better disguise the real intent of the Lustration Law, Berisha also announced last week the creation of an institute to study the crimes of �0A;communism as well as plans to build a massive obelisk to commemorate the victims of communism. Berisha himself was a high-ranking communist party functionary and served as the personal physician for Enver Hoxha, but this hasn't stopped Berisha from tarring opposition leader Edi Rama and others for their allegedly pro-communist pasts and leanings. An "Election-Year Budget" -------------- ¶4. (C) Berisha has made clear for months that the GOA's only fiscal and economic concern for the next six months is getting re-elected. In asking the IMF to leave, Berisha frankly admitted that he wanted the IMF out so that he could pursue "an election-year budget", before adding that the IMF would be welcome to return after the elections. One Democratic Party insider told the Embassy that Albania will be shielded from any global financial crises until after the June elections because of the huge amounts of money the government plans to spend between now and the elections on infrastructure projects, pensions, and increased salaries - a largesse that will end immediately after the elections. Berisha is also desperate to avoid any public perception that the Albanian economy could be slowing ) Berisha publicly insists that the Albanian economy is growing at 9.9 percent, even though the IMF and Berisha's own Minister of Finance have publicly reiterated forecasts of 4-6 percent growth. Shut Down Key Investigations -------------- ¶5. (C) Prime Minister Berisha is clearly desperate to stop or otherwise blunt any impact from the ongoing Gerdec, Durres-Kukes, Damir Fazlic and other investigations that threaten to implicate members of Berisha's family or inner circle. Numerous sources have told the Embassy that Berisha's only goal in forcing passage of the Lustration Law is to put pressure on prosecutors and judges in hopes of TIRANA 00000035 002 OF 002 influencing ongoing investigations. Since the passage of the law on January 14, Zamir Shtylla, the lead prosecutor involved in the Gerdec investigation, has resigned, citing the desire not to further politicize the Office of the Prosecutor General. Although it may be just a coincidence, two days before Shtylla resigned, Political Assistant saw Shtylla's brother eating lunch with PM Berisha's chief fixer and dealmaker, right-wing newspaper owner Ferih Baliu. COMMENT: Going for Broke -------------- ¶6. (C) Passing the Lustration Law over the strong public objections of the OSCE, U.S. and Council of Europe and throwing economic caution to the wind and booting the IMF - all are clear redlines PM Berisha has chosen to cross in recent weeks, and all for the sake of winning the upcoming elections. The stakes in these elections are high - Berisha likely fears that he or members of his family could face prosecution under a Socialist government, meaning Berisha will likely pull out all the stops between now and June to ensure a victory. CRISTINA