DP vs. SP - A Tale of Two Strategies

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SUBJECT: DP vs. SP - A Tale of Two Strategies

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With the campaign period now officially open, the
ruling Democratic Party (DP) and opposition Socialist Party have
deployed widely differing campaign strategies in order to get to 71

seats - the bare number necessary to secure a majority in the 140
seat parliament. The DP has assembled a large, 17-party coalition
that it hopes will give it an advantage in rural areas. The DP's
campaign will focus heavily on touting GOA achievements over the
past four years, and will count on the DP's solid party organization
to help secure victory. The SP, on the other hand, hopes to
capitalize on Berisha fatigue, and fallout from the Gerdec tragedy
and other corruption scandals, as well as a generally left-leaning
electorate, to boost the SP's chances. Post's overall assessment at
this point is that although the ruling DP appears to have the
momentum for now, neither party is likely to secure an outright
majority of seats via the election, forcing whichever party wins a
plurality of seats to form a governing coalition. END SUMMARY.
DP Pitches its Big Tent
--------------


2. (SBU) DP MP and party strategist Ilir Rusmajli told PolOff that
the DP's 17-party coalition would give the DP a small advantage, in
that it would attract more rural votes than the SP's much-smaller
5-party coalition. According to Rusmajli, even though none of the
16 other parties within the DP coalition are likely to get enough
votes to get their own seats in the next parliament, the votes cast
for those parties will remain within the DP coalition as rural
voters cast votes for regional favorite son candidates. SP
strategist Kastriot Islami agreed with this assessment, telling
PolOff that SP Leader Edi Rama had made a mistake in putting
together such a small coalition. Rusmajli estimated that the DP's
coalition partners would add 1-2 seats to the DP vote total -
enough, he claimed, to make a big difference in a close election.


3. (SBU) But the SP has done its own coalition math as well. The
SP signed a last-minute deal to add the almost entirely ethnic-Greek
Human Rights Party to the SP coalition. SP strategists estimate
that the HRP could add 3-4 seats to the SP coalition's total. The
HRP is strong in the south where Albania's Greek minority lives, but
is practically non-existent in the north.

DP "Cohesiveness" vs. a Fractured SP
--------------


4. (SBU) Rusmajli claimed that the SP suffers from internal
divisions, a view echoed by other, non-DP observers. Rusmajli said
the SP's traditional base of old-style Socialists was disconnected
from Edi Rama and the new "volunteers" Rama was bringing in to help
the campaign. Other observers agreed that the SP base was divided
between Rama, former PM Fatos Nano and former PM Ilir Meta
supporters, but were uncertain what effect this might have on SP
turnout. The DP, on the other hand, has had only one standard
bearer from the very beginning - Prime Minister Sali Berisha.
Although this undoubtedly gives the DP a more cohesive base, it also
risks alienating voters on both sides suffering from Berisha
fatigue.

Do the Issues Matter?
--------------


5. (SBU) As expected, the DP will run on the record of the Berisha
government, touting economic growth, NATO membership, and the
nearly-completed Durres-Kukes road, to name a few. Expect a long,
and well publicized series of ribbon cuttings between now and the
election. Although the SP platform centers on making education more
accessible for Albanians, the real focus of the SP campaign will be
harsh criticism of the Berisha government over corruption and
unemployment. The Gerdec tragedy will also feature prominently in
the SP campaign, with Rama pointing to Gerdec as a symbol of
everything that is wrong with the Berisha government. Finally, the
SP is hoping that Berisha-fatigue will convince large numbers of
voters to vote SP.


6. (SBU) But as nearly every political observer will point out, the
Albanian electorate is fairly rigid in its loyalties, with
relatively few "swing voters" in the American sense. The consensus
view is that issues matter little to most voters, and that national
elections generally are a referendum on the incumbent, with much
less thought given to the vision or promises of the challenger.
This was clearly the case in 2005, when voters, turned off by the
Socialist PM Fatos Nano's over-the-top corruption, threw out the SP.


Getting to 71
--------------


7. (SBU) Rusmajli claimed that according to DP calculations, the DP

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With the campaign period now officially open, the
ruling Democratic Party (DP) and opposition Socialist Party have
deployed widely differing campaign strategies in order to get to 71
seats - the bare number necessary to secure a majority in the 140
seat parliament. The DP has assembled a large, 17-party coalition
that it hopes will give it an advantage in rural areas. The DP's
campaign will focus heavily on touting GOA achievements over the
past four years, and will count on the DP's solid party organization
to help secure victory. The SP, on the other hand, hopes to
capitalize on Berisha fatigue, and fallout from the Gerdec tragedy
and other corruption scandals, as well as a generally left-leaning
electorate, to boost the SP's chances. Post's overall assessment at
this point is that although the ruling DP appears to have the
momentum for now, neither party is likely to secure an outright
majority of seats via the election, forcing whichever party wins a
plurality of seats to form a governing coalition. END SUMMARY.
DP Pitches its Big Tent
--------------

coalition will secure 71 seats in the elections - thereby giving the
DP the right to form the next government. Others both within and
outside of the DP are not so certain, with most believing that
neither the SP nor DP coalition will reach the magic 71. According
to the law, whichever coalition wins a plurality of seats will
receive the first invitation from the President to form a
government. Should they not be able to form a ruling coalition, the
President will then invite the next-largest vote getter to try and
form a 71-seat majority.

First Mover Advantage
--------------


8. (SBU) The jury is still out as to who - Edi Rama or Sali Berisha
- would have an easier time forming a governing coalition should
neither one win an outright majority. But it may not matter.
Whichever party gets a plurality of seats via the election will have
a huge advantage in that once seats are allocated to each coalition,
each new deputy becomes a free agent, with the ability to abandon
their parties and join the other side should they so choose.
Whichever side gets the first crack at forming a government will
almost certainly offer whatever it takes - with ministries, cash or
other incentives a certainty -to lure deputies to their side in
order to form a 71-seat majority. Both the DP and SP coalitions
contain a large number of candidates that will eagerly sell
themselves to the highest bidder, meaning an invitation by the
President to either Rama or Berisha to put together a government
could touch off a bidding war for the loyalties of a few key
deputies.

Advantage (for now): DP
--------------


9. (SBU) COMMENT: In the end, this election hinges more on
organization than issues. Whichever party proves better able to
mobilize its base, put together a better campaign organization, and
do a more effective job of horse-trading and coalition building is
the one most likely to end up in control of the next government.
For now, the DP has the momentum and the organizational edge, not to
mention the substantial advantages of being the incumbent. But with
the official campaign only just beginning, much can and will change
between now and June 28. In other words, it's still early.