Edi Rama and the SP: Spinning Their Wheels

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000336 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PHUM AL SUBJECT: Edi Rama and the SP: Spinning Their Wheels ¶1. (SBU) SUMMMARY: With 26 days to go until general elections, the opposition Socialist Party (SP) is stuck in neutral. Lagging behind the ruling Democratic Party (DP) in terms of money and organization, the SP, by its own admission, is consumed with hand-wringing over the ID card process and other election administration issues. SP Leader Edi Rama, in keeping with past election practice, has focused more on criticizing and threatening to disrupt the electoral process than rolling out the SP campaign or laying out any kind of positive SP agenda. The end result, according to numerous observers, is an SP campaign lacking focus and unable to build momentum heading toward the elections. It also seems clear that the SP is laying the groundwork for a possible boycott of the electoral commissions - a move that could paralyze the electoral process and, as the Embassy has made very clear to the SP, would be poorly received by us and the international community. However, it is likely that the SP leadership itself has not yet decided on whether to take this step. One senior SP strategist told PolOff that the odds of such a pullout are "better than fifty percent." END SUMMARY. Another Day, Another Ultimatum -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On June 1 the SP filed a criminal lawsuit against numerous officials in the Ministry of the Interior, charging them with intent to conceal information regarding the issuance of ID cards. The lawsuit comes after a stream of unmet demands by the SP for release of more information by the MoI regarding ID card applications - particularly applications by the voters who need IDs the most - i.e. those who lack passports. On June 2, the SP upped the ante again, when an SP candidate said on a morning talk show that "there will not be elections until all Albanians who need one have an ID card." On May 30, senior SP strategist Kastriot Islami told PolOff that the odds of an SP withdrawal from the electoral commissions "is better than 50 percent," but added that the decision on whether or not to withdraw was at least one week away. ¶3. (SBU) According to ODIHR observers embedded in the Central Election Commission (CEC),SP representatives on the CEC spent much of June 1 arguing over procedural matters - including a one hour argument over the merits of carbon copies vs. photocopies for certain electoral documents. The SP also made a motion to mandate bipartisan representation on vote-counting teams, as opposed to the current law which requires only that two vote counters be present. (NOTE: Currently, the law states that vote counting teams (the people who will examine and count ballots on the night of the election) consist of two people, both of whom come from a larger, bipartisan counting center team. The law, which the SP voted to approve as part of the electoral code, was designed to prevent one party from shutting down the entire vote count by boycotting the counting process. The SP motion could be seen as an attempt to ease the way for a later SP withdrawal from the counting teams. END NOTE) Hand-Wringing as an Electoral Strategy -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Senior SP strategist Kastriot Islami told PolOff on May 30 that he and others in the SP leadership spend 90 percent of their time focused on the ID card process, examining voter lists, and coming up with SP nominees for electoral commissions. Islami admitted that this left practically no time for campaigning. Islami and other senior SP figures told PolOff that they've been slow to open SP campaign offices around the country, largely due to a lack of money in comparison with the better funded Democratic Party. Two non-SP observers told PolOff that the SP seemed to lack any kind of positive agenda and was instead running a mainly negative campaign centered on criticism of Prime Minister Berisha. (NOTE: To be fair, the SP does have a long, detailed party platform, centered around education). Taking a Page from the SP Playbook -------------- ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Brinksmanship and hand-wringing are tactics taken straight from the SP playbook - a strategy used to near perfection during the 2007 local elections, when SP concerns (legitimate concerns, expressed in a hysterical manner) led to a crisis over IDs that forced a one-month delay in the elections and required international intervention to resolve. It's important to remember that the campaign season has officially only just begun, and that the SP still has time to find its campaign footing. Although recent polls have tended to show the DP ahead, some polls continue to give the SP a slim lead. It's difficult to say at this point whether SP threats of a walkout are real or are just more SP bluster. The TIRANA 00000336 002 OF 002 Ambassador and other EmbOffs have made plain that a boycott would be viewed negatively by the USG and the international community in general. Several previous SP-declared deadlines have passed with no action. What is clear, however, is that at this point the SP seems more focused on the electoral process than their campaign itself.