THE KINGMAKER FOR THE JUNE ELECTIONS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000164 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AL SUBJECT: THE KINGMAKER FOR THE JUNE ELECTIONS? Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN WITHERS FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: As the June Parliamentary elections approach, the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) clearly sees itself as the kingmaker in an election where neither of the two leading parties appear likely to win an outright victory. LSI hopes to win 15 seats and expects the SP and DP to garner approximately 57 or 58 each, leaving LSI to decide who will be the next PM. However, according to one internal SP poll done on a regional basis, LSI will be lucky to gather five out of 140 seats in the upcoming parliament. It is unclear at this point which side LSI would support to form a governing coalition if it were able to garner enough votes to play the decisive role. Some SP strategists have said Meta is looking to cast a deal with the DP after the elections, partly due to his extreme distaste for SP leader Edi Rama. Meta, for his part, has been largely silent on any post election plans, but most outside observers think it highly unlikely Meta would team-up with the DP to form a governing coalition. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI),lead by its chairman Ilir Meta, split from the Socialist-led left wing coalition in March 2008 as a result of rising tensions between Meta and SP leader Edi Rama regarding Meta's role on the left. The two remain bitter rivals, and on November 10, 2008, Meta and ten others staged a hunger strike to protest changes in the new Electoral Code that the SP and the Democratic Party had agreed on to the disadvantage of Meta,s LSI. The poorly planned strike failed after nine days and the Electoral Code was passed by a vote of 113-1. Meta labeled the passage a "consensual crime" and criticized both PM Berisha and SP leader Rama for colluding to pass an antidemocratic law. The King(maker) and I -------------- ¶3. (C) Meta emerged from the hunger strike weaker than he was before, but he now believes he will play the role of kingmaker in the June elections, since neither the DP nor the SP appear able to win an outright majority of 71 or more seats in the Parliament. On March 5, Meta told the Ambassador that he expects the SP and DP to pick up no more than 57 or 58 seats each, while LSI should win at least 15 or 16 seats, with the remainder going to some of the even smaller parties. He said he is "very comfortable" with LSI's present position and claimed that some DP supporters, disillusioned with Berisha, are joining LSI. ¶4. (C) Meta did not elucidate much of a strategy for victory, but he said that LSI has contracted with two U.S. firms to help plan election strategy and promote awareness about flaws in the electoral system. His main strategy seems to be counting on discontent with both the major parties to propel LSI to the kingmaker role. The major issues for LSI are poverty and unemployment, and he plans to hit both the DP and Rama, not the SP as a whole, hard on these issues once the campaign formally begins in late May, in hopes of driving a wedge between Edi Rama and mainstream SP voters. After the elections, he said he hopes to find common ground with the SP, but, for good measure, added that Rama appears only concerned about his relationship with Berisha. He labeled Rama as "more dangerous" than Berisha when it comes to elections and seemed to blame Rama everything he sees wrong with the new electoral code. But the Polls Beg to Differ. . . -------------- ¶5. (C) Early polling, however, tells a much different story. Despite Meta's claim that LSI is a "national" party, two national polls showed LSI at five and 3 percent, respectively. According to one internal Socialist Party poll done on a regional basis, LSI will be lucky to gather five out of 140 seats in the upcoming parliament. According to this SP poll, the SP and its coalition partners might be able to eke out a slim majority in the new parliament even without LSI. ¶6. (C) In LSI's view, the SP and DP do not have the will to hold free and fair elections. Meta said only one or two incidents on Election Day could make the entire elections a failure. This is particularly bad, he said, in light of the coming accession to NATO in April and future dreams of entering the EU. He said he has many doubts about meeting international standards as the preparations are very far behind. If these elections fail, he said, it will cost Albania for many years to come, especially with respect to EU membership. TIRANA 00000164 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Comment: LSI has piles of money, as evidenced by its decision to retain Stan Greenberg and Dutko Worldwide as campaign advisors, and the party has dispatched paid operatives around the country to run its local campaign offices. Yet it remains to be seen whether or not LSI will have the ability to garner enough votes to be the kingmaker. Other contacts have said that LSI will likely win only 6-7 seats at most. However, LSI may be able to pull off this role if it focuses its efforts intensely in a few select places, as it appears it is doing. If LSI does manage to win a significant amount of seats, then the question looms large about which side it will support to create a majority. His bitter rivalry with Rama is well known, and some in the SP fear that Meta may somehow sabotage Rama's chances of victory in order to become the SP's new flag bearer. We have also heard from SP strategists that Meta may be looking to cast a deal with the DP after the elections. However it is not clear how this would impact his standing with the SP rank and file or even among Meta's own followers in LSI, who see any deal that would keep PM Berisha in power as anathema. For his part, Meta has been silent on the issue. Twice the PM, Meta is no stranger to the game, but while he may think he is in a good spot now, it will require significant political shrewdness to emerge a winner in June. WITHERS