NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: VIEW FROM THE PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000673

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO AF NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: VIEW FROM THE PRIME
MINISTER'S OFFICE

REF: A. THE HAGUE 663

B. THE HAGUE 595

Classified By: POL/ECON COUNSELOR ANDREW MANN for reasons 1.4 (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Dutch are unlikely to make a decision on
post-2010 Afghanistan deployment until March of next year.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C/NF) Pol/Econ Counselor met with Jeroen de Graaf,
political advisor to Dutch Prime Minister Balkenende, Nov. 6
and reviewed internal discussions on continued Dutch
engagement in Afghanistan. De Graaf noted Deputy Prime
Minister/Finance Minister/Labor Party leader Wouter Bos keeps
his cards close to the vest during Cabinet discussions, but
usually provides some indication of areas for compromise. On
the issue of the Dutch staying militarily in Uruzgan after
2010 however, he is unbending. He has told the PM, "no, no,
no" and is willing to bring down the government and take the
issue to the people in an election. He feels the Labor Party
compromised previously in supporting the decisions to
undertake the Uruzgan "lead nation" mission and then to
extend the mission until 2010. Consequently, the party has
suffered in the polls. He does not plan to make those
"mistakes" again.


3. (C/NF) De Graaf indicated Development Minister Koenders
and other Labor officials and MPs would likely support some
sort of mission in Uruzgan. Bos and other Labor MPs will
not. De Graaf said Bos orchestrated the recent parliamentary
debate on the resolutions calling for the Cabinet to be
mindful of parliamentary opposition to a military mission in
Uruzgan (reftels). Bos sat in the Parliament's cafeteria,
instructing the Labor MPs by texting on what to say and do.


4. (C/NF) The only way the PM thinks the Labor Party can be
turned around is by pressure from its constituents. The PM's
party, the Christian Democrats (CDA),is intimating to the
NGOs working on development in Uruzgan their programs might
have to be shut down if the Dutch leave the province. Since
recent surveys have shown marked improvements in public
health, agricultural production and education standards in
Uruzgan since the Dutch took over "lead nation" status, the
NGOs are anxious to continue their work. The PM's office is
hoping they will raise their concerns to senior Labor
officials and urge them to stay the course. The PM is also
granting interviews to selected publications to talk about
Dutch successes on the ground and positive developments in
Uruzgan caused by Dutch development assistance.


5. (C/NF) De Graaf admitted these tactics would take time.
The Ministry of Defense is under instructions to determine
the last possible date for a Cabinet decision. De Graaf
warned the Prime Minister did not think the Cabinet would be
able to reach consensus on any sort of follow-on mission for
Uruzgan before the municipal elections in early March 2010.
If a decision was required beforehand, it would be "no."
Afghanistan is not an issue of concern to the other party in
the current three-party coalition, the Christian Union (CU).
De Graaf anticipates the CU will follow the Labor Party's
lead in any Cabinet decision (NOTE: as it did in the recent
parliamentary debate).


6. (C/NF) Pol/Econ Counselor reviewed generally some of the
recent efforts the U.S. had taken to engage the Labor
Qrecent efforts the U.S. had taken to engage the Labor
leadership and opposition MPs (visits/meetings by USNATO Perm
Rep Amb. Daalder, Gen. McChrystal, Gen. Petraeus; NSA Gen.
Jones pull aside with Bos at G20 in Pittsburgh) as well as
planned engagement (SRAP Holbrooke phone call to Koenders;
Ambassador call on Bos). De Graaf appreciated our low-key
strategy and thought they were the best approach on this
delicate issue.


LEVIN