NETHERLANDS: SECOND ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE CRITICIZED AS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 THE HAGUE 000062 SIPDIS STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD - INTERNATIONAL DIVISION, TREASURY FOR IMI/OASIA.VATUKORALA, USDOC FOR 4212/USFCS/MAC/EURA/OWE/DCALVERT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV PREL NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS: SECOND ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE CRITICIZED AS INSUFFICIENT Ref: (A) 08 THE HAGUE 981, (B) 08 THE HAGUE 1018, (C) THE HAGUE 60, (D) 08 STATE 134459 THE HAGUE 00000062 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. SUMMARY: Just as the European Commission released its forecast that Dutch GDP would shrink by 2 percent in 2009 (more than the EU average),the Government of the Netherlands (GONL) announced on January 16 a second package of measures to strengthen Dutch credit markets and the larger economy. In line with the Dutch Cabinet's pragmatic approach and reticence to increase government spending so soon, the package does not include large capital injections, but rather government guarantees intended to stimulate lending. These include the expansion of export credits for Dutch companies, loan guarantee facilities for banks, and support for property developers. Some in the Dutch Parliament, employer and employee organizations, and the EU have criticized the package as insufficient, but the GONL is standing by its conviction that a cautious approach is best until the full results of its stimulus measures are evident. Additional measures are expected later in the spring. End summary. -------------- A SECOND ROUND OF ECONOMIC STIMULUS MEASURES -------------- ¶2. Finance Minister Wouter Bos explained that the second economic stimulus package - which follows the first 6 billion euro package introduced in November 2008 (ref A) - mainly provides guarantees for bank loans and export activities. The banks and companies pay premiums to the GONL in return for these guarantees. "Compare us [the GONL] with an insurance company," said Bos. "We receive premiums, but we do not immediately have to pay out." Bos stressed that these measures "will not make a hole in the [national] budget" - something the GONL seeks to avoid as rising unemployment costs, lower tax receipts and falling natural gas prices in 2009 will put an end to its budget surplus. Finance Ministry officials noted that the GONL is unwilling to introduce large capital injections because it fears this money will simply leak abroad through the Netherlands' large export sector. The Netherlands also expects to benefit from other countries' stimulus packages, even though Finance Ministry officials deny any "free riding." All told, the November and current stimulus packages total approximately 9 billion euro, or 1.5 percent of Dutch GDP - in line with the EU's recommendation that Member States should introduce packages totaling 1.5 percent of their GDP. ¶3. Following are the highlights of the new economic stimulus measures: -- The GONL will extend its current export credit insurance facility. The GONL will cover risks for companies exporting to markets (especially in Eastern Europe) where no commercial export credit insurance is available. Economic Affairs Minister Maria van der Hoeven said that "it is important for the Netherlands that we can continue to export unabatedly to Russia, Kazakhstan, the Baltic states, and other countries." The value of Dutch exports dropped 7 percent in November 2008 from the prior year. -- The existing Growth Facility for small- and medium-size companies will be extended to include larger companies with over 250 employees. The GONL will guarantee up to 50 percent of loans provided by banks and investment firms to fast-growing companies, Qprovided by banks and investment firms to fast-growing companies, while the financial institutions absorb the risk for the remaining 50 percent. Each borrowing company is eligible to take advantage of these GONL guarantees for up to 50 million euro in loans. This extended Growth Facility, which begins March 1, will provide companies easier access to capital needed for production and investment. -- The GONL is also introducing several measures to stimulate the stagnating Dutch housing market. Private property developers can mitigate their financial risk by offering their housing projects to building corporations, which can then outsource the projects back to private companies. Because building corporations are partially subsidized and strictly regulated by the government, they can carry the financial risks of the projects rather than leaving the private developers totally exposed. The GONL also has established a fund of 100 million euro for projects that make houses more "environmentally friendly." The GONL also expanded its financing for hospitals so they can go ahead with previously approved expansion plans. -- The government has extended its program to allow companies to shorten some employees' working hours (rather than laying them off), with the government paying the corresponding unemployment benefits. This program was part of the first stimulus package in November; more than 350 companies applied for it before the initial deadline THE HAGUE 00000062 002.2 OF 003 of January 15. This deadline was extended by six weeks to March 1; however, no additional money has yet been allocated to the initial budget of 200 million euro. The GONL also will open more regional mobility centers for unemployed looking for jobs and re-training. -- In consultation with Dutch financial institutions, the Cabinet revised and clarified the terms of its 200 billion euro credit guarantee scheme launched in October for the issuance of medium-term bank debt. (Note: This is roughly the volume of all outstanding inter-bank loans. End note.) According to Finance Minister Bos, "a number of the conditions [set in October] were felt to create obstacles; we have now removed them. In addition, many banks felt it would be seen as a sign of weakness if they used the scheme. Now they can all use it, and none will be stigmatized." According to the Finance Ministry, even healthy banks such as Rabobank that do not need to take advantage of the GONL's guarantee scheme to lend money will do so. Only three financial institutions have taken advantage of the scheme to date. -------------- -------------- DUTCH CABINET STANDS FIRM DESPITE CRITICISM, LAYOFFS -------------- -------------- ¶4. Some Dutch political parties do not consider the second stimulus package sufficient to address the Netherlands' economic slowdown and tight credit market. There is criticism of the GONL's perceived lack of action - but also widespread disagreement on what additional action should be taken and when. Some in the left-wing opposition parties are calling for more government spending, but many in the Labor Party - of which Finance Minister Bos is head - want to wait until at least April before launching new measures. Meanwhile, some right-wing parties are calling for tax cuts to stimulate spending and investment. The ruling Christian Democratic Appeal party (CDA) is the only party insisting on strict compliance with the coalition agreement, which states that if the national budget deficit exceeds 2 percent, "necessary measures" must be taken. The European Commission (EC) forecasts that the Netherlands will have a 2.7 percent budget deficit in 2009. ¶5. Most Dutch employer and employee organizations reacted with disappointment to the latest stimulus measures, asserting that the GONL seriously underestimates the economic problems facing the Netherlands. Leading employee organization CNV added that the government is urging consumers and business to spend "while the government itself is the great absentee when it comes to investing in the economy." ¶6. The push by some in Parliament and industry comes amid signs of serious economic slowdown in the Netherlands, including layoffs at some of Holland's largest employers. The EC now predicts that Dutch GDP will shrink by 2 percent in 2009 - lower than the expected EU average of 1.8 percent, and lower than predictions by Holland's leading statistical agency, CPB, in December of 0.75 percent negative growth (ref B). The EC also expects unemployment in the Netherlands to rise to 4.1 percent in 2009; CPB predicts 4.5 percent. ¶7. Although Dutch unemployment will remain among the lowest in EU (where the average rate is expected to be 8.7 percent in 2009), announcements of layoffs this week by several Dutch industry giants Qannouncements of layoffs this week by several Dutch industry giants have added fuel to concerns about looming recession and an insufficient GONL response. Royal Philips Electronics plans to cut 6,000 of its roughly 300,000 jobs worldwide, having lost 186 million euro in 2008 compared with a net profit of over 4 billion euro in ¶2007. Tata Steel's Corus Plc, Europe's second-largest steel company formed a decade ago from the merger of British Steel and Dutch firm Hoogovens, may axe nearly 1,000 workers out of the 9,500 at its plant in Ijmuiden, Holland. In December, Corus took advantage of the GONL's offer to allow shorter working hours for 4,600 of its 11,300 employees in the Netherlands (rather than firing them),with the GONL paying the corresponding unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, ING, the largest Dutch financial services and insurance provider, announced January 26 that it will cut 7,000 jobs worldwide and replace Chief Executive Officer Michel Tilmant after reporting a second consecutive quarterly loss. ING also will accept additional support from the GONL in the form of a guarantee of 80 percent of the value of a large tranche of its problematic U.S. mortgage assets (ref C). ¶8. Despite criticism from some corners that the GONL is not doing enough to offset the economic slowdown, the Dutch Cabinet is standing firm behind its cautious approach. Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende and Finance Minister Bos do not want to increase the risk of a greater budget deficit before the existing stimulus THE HAGUE 00000062 003.2 OF 003 measures have had time to work. Bos noted that the financial sector - as a cornerstone of the Dutch economy - must start to function properly again for the real economy to recover. Thus, providing loan and export guarantees instead of capital injections is a better solution. Many segments of the Dutch population, including in government and industry, agree with the GONL's approach and are willing to wait and see how the current stimulus measures play out. Nonetheless, public debate likely will continue throughout the economic slowdown in 2009 about whether the GONL is doing enough. ¶9. Meanwhile, the Cabinet is considering an additional stimulus package - likely to be announced in April - including measures to stimulate employment. However, this is unlikely to include any tax cuts. According to Bos, Dutch purchasing power has already improved sufficiently because, as part of the first stimulus package, the GONL allowed employees to reduce their contributions to the national unemployment benefit fund and cancelled the planned increase of the value added tax (VAT). Prime Minister Balkenende noted that he is waiting for the next official growth forecasts in February before considering a third package of support measures during discussions in April of the 2009 and 2010 budgets. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. Comment: Although the Cabinet has chosen to avoid large capital injections thus far, it has been proactive in responding to the financial crisis. The GONL introduced its first stimulus package in early October - well before the EU agreed on measures that should be taken by Member States - and it is continuously evaluating the effects of those measures. The Cabinet is unlikely to bend to pressure for more drastic fiscal stimulus measures as it continues to focus attention on restoring the health of the Dutch financial sector - a main driver of the Dutch economy and the place where the Netherlands' troubles began. On the international stage, the GONL remains committed to playing an important role in discussions within the EU and G20 on the future of world financial markets and needed changes in their regulatory structure. End comment. GALLAGHER