NETHERLANDS/IRAN: MFA REPORTING FROM TEHRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000376

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2019
TAGS: PREL ECON IR NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/IRAN: MFA REPORTING FROM TEHRAN

Classified By: Political Deputy Eric Falls for reasons 1.5(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Iranian and EU governments have exchanged
protests, including a second formal protest by the Dutch MFA
to the Iranian Charge d'Affaires in The Hague. Tehran is
looking for splits in the EU position. The Dutch proposed
and expect an EU meeting on June 26 to maintain unity. Since
June 20, the Dutch officials have seen only relatively small
Tehran protests. END SUMMARY


2. (C) DUTCH, EUROPEAN, AND IRANIAN REACTIONS: In
conversations June 24 and 26, Loek Ten Hagen, Dutch MFA Iran
desk officer, shared observations from his ministry and the
Dutch embassy in Tehran with Post. While FM Verhagen was
abroad this weekend, the MFA called in the Iranian Charge
d'Affaires for a second time. Political Affairs DG De
Gooijer protested that singling out the United Kingdom, and
to some extent France, was unreasonable, and de Grooijer
expressed the unity of the EU member states in addition to
protesting the treatment of the protesters and the violent
crackdowns initiated by the GOI. The Iranian CDA responded
by attacking BBC and CNN news and Radio Zameneh for their
coverage of events in Iran. (Note: Radio Zameneh is an
independent broadcaster in Amsterdam that receives some
funding from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. End Note.)
The Iranian CDA also stated that they had proof that Britain
was interfering with Iranian internal affairs.


3. (C) In Tehran, when the Dutch Ambassador was called in to
meet the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran, Mehdi Safari, he
was shown a "completely unconvincing" photo with a western
(apparently British) man meeting with British officials.
Safari algaQNQ@
Iran was looking for splits in the EU position. Ten Hagen
opined that if this trend continues, it is possible that Iran
may expel some EU ambassadors. To reinforce solidarity and
discuss future options, FM Verhagen has proposed a side
meeting of EU ministers on June 26.


4. (C) The Dutch MFA is considering further sanctions against
Iran. Ten Hagen suggested that visa restrictions might be
one option, but the reaction of the Dutch will depend on the
reaction of the opposition and public in Iran.


5. (C) CONTROLS AND VIOLENCE: After the June 20 protests, the
Dutch officials have noted only smaller protests. GOI
authorities harshly suppressed a small demonstration with
approximately 1,000 people on Monday, and a protest of 7,000
on Wednesday. The roads to the central square of Tehran are
heavily restricted to keep protesters away. There are rumors
of increasing controls in areas around foreign embassies and
questioning of people who go near them, especially those
interviewing for visa applications. The Dutch have also
heard that people coming into the country are being heavily
questioned and scrutinized.


6. (C) LOCATION OF MOUSAVI UNKNOWN: The Dutch have no idea
where presidential candidate Mousavi is or what he is doing.
A political compromise with Mousavi and fellow candidate
Kharroubi is now as unlikely as ever. The news says that
Mousavi is now asking for an independent committee to examine
the election results. There are "very speculative" rumors
that former president Rafsanjani is trying to organize a
coup. Such a coup would only have a chance of working with
the backing of the Revolutionary Guard.

7. (C) THEORIES ON IRANIAN POLITICS: The Dutch Ambassador
Q7. (C) THEORIES ON IRANIAN POLITICS: The Dutch Ambassador
told Ten Hagen that Khamenei wanted Ahmedinejad to win the
election. Khamenei saw Khatami, with his experience and
support in the reformist movement, as a threat to regime
stability. Khamenei most likely thought Mousavi posed no
threat. The Dutch Ambassador also suggested there will be no
liberalization of Iran,s government in the near term, given
the crises Iran now faces.
GALLAGHER