NETHERLANDS/SYRIA: EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000174 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019 TAGS: PREL EU SY NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/SYRIA: EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT UNLIKELY REF: A. SECSTATE 20919 ¶B. THE HAGUE 35 ¶C. 08 THE HAGUE 927 Classified By: Political-Economic Affairs Counselor Andrew C. Mann for reasons 1.5(b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Dutch welcomed recent U.S. meetings in Syria. They agree an EU association agreement with Syria is inappropriate at this time and believe the EU is unlikely to approve such an agreement in the near term. End summary. ¶2. (C) Poloff shared reftel A points with key MFA contacts, and MFA Senior Policy Adviser Peter van der Bloemen responded that the Dutch welcome the recent U.S.-Syria meetings. The Dutch believe it is important to maintain open communications as part of their "critical dialogue" approach they follow with countries such as Syria, Cuba, and China. The Dutch agree with and support the idea of a unified EU policy in Syria -- the Syrians will take advantage of splits within the EU and any split between EU and U.S. policy. The Dutch also welcome the U.S. position against any deal on the Lebanon tribunal -- a "key" issue for the Dutch. The Dutch welcome a further debrief from U.S. officials on the March 7 bilateral meetings in Damascus. The Dutch see the U.S. as critical to any peace agreement with Syria due to Syria's security concerns -- the Syrians see the U.S. both as more of a military heavyweight than the EU and as key to influencing Israel decision-making. ¶3. (C) The Dutch are unlikely to support an EU-Syria association agreement at this time. FM Verhagen told D/PM Dardari in October that the Dutch would "need a gesture" on human rights, for example. The Dutch have encouraged the Syrians to make some progress on issues of concern -- human rights or relations with Lebanon. FM Verhagen is not ready to give up the carrot of an EU association agreement. The Dutch parliament would not likely approve the agreement at any rate. Verhagen's message to the EU will be that "the ball is in Syria's court." ¶4. (C) Van der Bloemen believes an EU association agreement is unlikely. Although President Assad has made some positive statements in support of an "agreement," he did not express support for a "peace agreement." Moreover, his statements and the Syrian rallies during the most recent Gaza conflict were not helpful. The Dutch do not expect Syria will make an overture that will win over the EU in the near term. Within the EU, the British and the Czechs support the Dutch position that concrete steps are needed before approval of an association agreement. GALLAGHER