FOREIGN MINISTER LIEBERMAN HAS ARRIVED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000808 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV KPAL EG IS SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER LIEBERMAN HAS ARRIVED Classified By: A/DCM Marc J. Sievers for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's steady climb in the Israeli political system now has him firmly planted as leader of Israel's third-largest party, Yisrael Beitenu (YB),and has earned him a spot as Israel's top diplomat. Lieberman does not hide that his goal is the Prime Minister's slot, but his controversial rhetoric and possible criminal activities could block his ascent. Lieberman's campaign tactics in the February 2009 elections centered on Jewish insecurities about their own Arab population, which helped Lieberman garner additional votes, but further opened him up to criticism that he is racist. The new chief diplomat also has provoked Egypt's ire in recent years by making comments critical of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and discussing drastic Israeli options should Israel again go to war with Egypt. Lieberman is dogged by a criminal investigation that began in 1996 and involves questions of whether Lieberman accepted bribes and engaged in other white collar crimes. Lieberman's bombastic nature sometimes overshadows more pragmatic positions. In his first speech at the Foreign Ministry he appeared to strike a combative tone, but a careful reading of his comments show that while he rejects any existing proposals for a "shelf agreement," he acknowledges Israel's commitment to the Roadmap and its implicit creation of a Palestinian state. Lieberman is focused on creating a secure, Jewish state, with little concern for how Israel gets there, including signing an agreement that requires Israel to uproot some of its citizens from the West Bank. In the end, though, Lieberman probably will not be a key decision-maker in issues of greatest concern to the U.S. Instead, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will manage Israel's most important foreign policy matters, probably in close consultation with Defense Minister Ehud Barak. -------------- A POWERFUL FIGURE LOOKING TO RISE TO THE TOP -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Lieberman's rise to the top echelon of Israeli politics has been remarkable. Born in present-day Moldova, Lieberman immigrated to Israel in 1978 and became involved in rightwing politics while a student at Hebrew University. He worked his way up the ranks of the Likud party and served as the Director General of the Prime Minister's Office during 
Netanyahu's first term as premier during 1996-99. Lieberman then served in former Prime Minister Sharon's governments from 2001 to 2006, all the while working to broaden his political base beyond the Russian community in Israel. His hardline security posture and focus on the Iranian threat resonated with the Israeli electorate, helping his YB party garner 11 seats in the 2006 elections. Lieberman set his sights higher for elections held this February, correctly predicting that his party would surpass the venerable Labor party to become the third-largest faction in the Knesset. Lieberman enjoyed the status this conferred upon him as a kingmaker during coalition negotiations, but has made clear he expects to move eventually from kingmaker to "king," i.e. to become prime minister. -------------- KNOWN FOR CONTROVERSIAL STATEMENTS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Lieberman in the February elections focused his campaign largely on the wedge issue of the role of Israel's Arab community. Lieberman's campaign capitalized on growing anxiety among Israeli Jews that Israel's twenty percent Arab minority increasingly identifies with Israel's enemies. Whether or not the anxiety is well-founded, Lieberman's campaign rhetoric had an impact. His campaign slogan - "Only Lieberman Understands Arabic" - and his focus on requiring all Israeli citizens to pledge loyalty to the state almost certainly gave him a boost in the polls, although his anti-Arab panderings also were widely seen as evidence of Lieberman's racism. (COMMENT: Lieberman's loyalty oath initiative also served to tweak the ultraorthodox, another segment of Israel's population with which the stridently secular YB leader has clashed.) His comments have not ruffled feathers only with his domestic audience; Lieberman caused a diplomatic stir in Cairo after he said on the floor of the Knesset that if Egyptian President Mubarak continued to refuse to visit Israel, Mubarak could "go to hell." Some years earlier, Lieberman caused his first diplomatic crisis with Egypt by suggesting in a speech that in the event of war with Egypt, Israel could bomb the Aswan Dam. -------------- AND POTENTIALLY CRIMINAL CONDUCT TEL AVIV 00000808 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In an investigation that began in 1996, Lieberman is suspected of fraud, breach of trust, and money laundering, as well as taking bribes through a consulting firm owned by his daughter. The police fraud squad on April 2 questioned Lieberman for seven hours, and a law enforcement official said the YB leader would be interrogated at lease once more. There is much chatter here that Lieberman is likely to be indicted sometime soon, but we believe that so far this is only (in some cases hopeful) speculation. Lieberman has skillfully used the investigations to his political advantage, portraying himself as a victim of opponents who are focused on bringing him down any way they can. -------------- NOT NECESSARILY THE BOGEYMAN -------------- ¶5. (C) Much of the nuance of Lieberman's political posture is lost in his bombastic rhetoric. Commentators and diplomats throughout the world this week have seized on Lieberman's inaugural speech as Foreign Minister when he quoted in Latin the Roman adage that those who seek peace should first prepare for war, and proclaimed that the Annapolis process was not binding on the current Israeli government. These comments made for headlines even in Israel, with some calling Lieberman a warmonger, and served to confirm the worst fears in some that Lieberman would use his new post as Foreign Minister to block progress toward peace. A careful reading of his remarks, however, shows Lieberman sent a very public (though perhaps undiplomatic) message that rejects the shelf agreement offered to Abu Mazen by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, but stresses the new government's commitment to the Roadmap and, by implication, the Roadmap's goal of a two-state solution. ¶6. (C) We are under no illusion that Lieberman is the next Yossi Beilin, the longtime peace proponent who served as Deputy Foreign Minister under Shimon Peres in the Oslo years and later led the dovish Meretz party and launched the Geneva Initiative (it is worth noting, however, that Lieberman and Beilin are on friendly terms and for years lunched together once a week in the Knesset cafeteria). Lieberman is an ardent Jewish nationalist who profoundly distrusts Israel's Arab neighbors (and many Israeli Arabs). He is single-mindedly focused on the end game -- assuring the security of Israel as a Jewish state -- with little concern for how Israel gets there. That is why he can champion a hawkish platform on negotiations with the Palestinians, while also declaring openly that he is prepared to uproot his own family from their home in a West Bank settlement if Israel can reach a satisfactory agreement with the Palestinians. Lieberman, unlike some of Netanyahu's other coalition partners, is not ideologically or religiously driven to hold on to the West Bank as part of Israel's God-given patrimony. -------------- AND CERTAINLY NOT THE BOSS -------------- ¶7. (C) Lieberman already has garnered much press in relation to his new role, but despite his title he probably will not be a key foreign policy decision-maker on most of the issues of concern to the U.S. Relations with the Palestinians (and the Syrians, should such talks occur) will be managed from inside the Prime Minister's bureau, and Netanyahu is more likely to lean on Labor Party leader and Defense Minister Barak rather than Lieberman for policy advice. In addition, the Ministry of Defense controls the West Bank and plays the leading role on Gaza humanitarian issues. Given the Egyptians' abhorrence of Lieberman, we expect engagement with Cairo to be managed by the Defense Ministry, which in any case has played the lead role with the Egyptians for a number of years. Netanyahu, of course, will have to take into account Lieberman's positions, and Lieberman's blunt rhetoric will no doubt cause headaches for Bibi, but the key messages we should focus on will come from the Prime Minister himself. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv ********************************************* ******************** CUNNINGHAM