Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09TELAVIV730
2009-03-27 14:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:
ISRAELI VIEW OF HAMAS IN GAZA: UNDER PRESSURE,
how-toVZCZCXRO2326 OO RUEHROV DE RUEHTV #0730 0861436 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 271436Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1192 INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000730
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV EAID KWBG IS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI VIEW OF HAMAS IN GAZA: UNDER PRESSURE,
FRUSTRATED AND PREPARING FOR RESUMED HOSTILITIES
Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000730
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV EAID KWBG IS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI VIEW OF HAMAS IN GAZA: UNDER PRESSURE,
FRUSTRATED AND PREPARING FOR RESUMED HOSTILITIES
Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)
1. (C) A senior Israeli journalist with close ties to
Defense Minister Barak and the IDF offered PolCouns March 27
what he described as the security establishment's assessment
of Hamas' situation in Gaza. Far from the big political
boost they anticipated following Operation Cast Lead, Hamas
feels frustrated and under pressure. Abu Mazen is holding
firm at the Cairo reconciliation talks, and Hamas'
expectations of a unity government in the near term that
would serve as a springboard to taking control of the PLO are
fading fast. Hamas badly wanted a prisoner exchange of
hundreds of Hamas men in return for Corporal Shalit, but they
were too rigid in the negotiations and missed the opportunity
to make a deal with Olmert. Hamas counted on international
pressure to force Israel to reopen the Gaza border crossings,
but they remain mainly closed, in part as a result of the
failure to make a deal on the prisoner exchange. Hamas
expected to be able to get control of a large portion of the
Gaza relief contributions from the international donors, but
that has not happened either, largely due to the firmness of
the U.S. position. In sum, while Operation Cast Lead did not
deal a crippling blow to the Hamas regime in Gaza, Hamas is
not close to being in the strong position it expected to be
when the fighting stopped.
2. (C) The journalist commented that the defense
establishment's assessment is that Hamas can manage the
pressure for another few months, but after that it will
resume large-scale firing of rockets. Meanwhile, Hamas is
preparing for renewed military confrontation, including by
attempting to bring in more advanced Iranian rockets capable
of hitting Tel Aviv in the next round.
3. (C) Comment. We believe the journalist's comments
accurately reflect the thinking of senior levels of the IDF
and MOD.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV EAID KWBG IS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI VIEW OF HAMAS IN GAZA: UNDER PRESSURE,
FRUSTRATED AND PREPARING FOR RESUMED HOSTILITIES
Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)
1. (C) A senior Israeli journalist with close ties to
Defense Minister Barak and the IDF offered PolCouns March 27
what he described as the security establishment's assessment
of Hamas' situation in Gaza. Far from the big political
boost they anticipated following Operation Cast Lead, Hamas
feels frustrated and under pressure. Abu Mazen is holding
firm at the Cairo reconciliation talks, and Hamas'
expectations of a unity government in the near term that
would serve as a springboard to taking control of the PLO are
fading fast. Hamas badly wanted a prisoner exchange of
hundreds of Hamas men in return for Corporal Shalit, but they
were too rigid in the negotiations and missed the opportunity
to make a deal with Olmert. Hamas counted on international
pressure to force Israel to reopen the Gaza border crossings,
but they remain mainly closed, in part as a result of the
failure to make a deal on the prisoner exchange. Hamas
expected to be able to get control of a large portion of the
Gaza relief contributions from the international donors, but
that has not happened either, largely due to the firmness of
the U.S. position. In sum, while Operation Cast Lead did not
deal a crippling blow to the Hamas regime in Gaza, Hamas is
not close to being in the strong position it expected to be
when the fighting stopped.
2. (C) The journalist commented that the defense
establishment's assessment is that Hamas can manage the
pressure for another few months, but after that it will
resume large-scale firing of rockets. Meanwhile, Hamas is
preparing for renewed military confrontation, including by
attempting to bring in more advanced Iranian rockets capable
of hitting Tel Aviv in the next round.
3. (C) Comment. We believe the journalist's comments
accurately reflect the thinking of senior levels of the IDF
and MOD.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM