ISRAELI VIEW OF HAMAS IN GAZA: UNDER PRESSURE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000730 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV EAID KWBG IS SUBJECT: ISRAELI VIEW OF HAMAS IN GAZA: UNDER PRESSURE, FRUSTRATED AND PREPARING FOR RESUMED HOSTILITIES Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) A senior Israeli journalist with close ties to Defense Minister Barak and the IDF offered PolCouns March 27 what he described as the security establishment's assessment of Hamas' situation in Gaza. Far from the big political boost they anticipated following Operation Cast Lead, Hamas feels frustrated and under pressure. Abu Mazen is holding firm at the Cairo reconciliation talks, and Hamas' expectations of a unity government in the near term that would serve as a springboard to taking control of the PLO are fading fast. Hamas badly wanted a prisoner exchange of hundreds of Hamas men in return for Corporal Shalit, but they were too rigid in the negotiations and missed the opportunity to make a deal with Olmert. Hamas counted on international pressure to force Israel to reopen the Gaza border crossings, but they remain mainly closed, in part as a result of the failure to make a deal on the prisoner exchange. Hamas expected to be able to get control of a large portion of the Gaza relief contributions from the international donors, but that has not happened either, largely due to the firmness of the U.S. position. In sum, while Operation Cast Lead did not deal a crippling blow to the Hamas regime in Gaza, Hamas is not close to being in the strong position it expected to be when the fighting stopped. ¶2. (C) The journalist commented that the defense establishment's assessment is that Hamas can manage the pressure for another few months, but after that it will resume large-scale firing of rockets. Meanwhile, Hamas is preparing for renewed military confrontation, including by attempting to bring in more advanced Iranian rockets capable of hitting Tel Aviv in the next round. ¶3. (C) Comment. We believe the journalist's comments accurately reflect the thinking of senior levels of the IDF and MOD. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv ********************************************* ******************** CUNNINGHAM