CODEL SKELTON'S MEETING WITH IDF CHIEF OF GENERAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 002778 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2019 TAGS: PREL MOPS MASS KWBG SY IR IS SUBJECT: CODEL SKELTON'S MEETING WITH IDF CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF ASHKENAZI Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (S) Summary. CODEL Skelton met with Lt General Gabi Ashkenazi at the MFA November 15. Their discussion covered U.S.-Israeli cooperation on missile defense and cyber warfare, the Iranian threat, Syria and Lebanon, Israeli-Palestinian relations, the Goldstone Report, and IDF training and readiness. Lt General Ashkenazi expressed appreciation for the House Committee on Armed Services' support for Israel over the years. On Iran, he stressed that the regime is radical but not irrational, and may change course if faced with a united international community. While there is a need to be ready for "other options," Ashkenazi said there is still time to put the emphasis on sanctions. On Syria, Ashkenazi said President Asad is enjoying the best of both worlds now and must be forced to choose between Iran and an opening to the West. Hizballah has been deterred by the 2006 Lebanon War, but it now has 40,000 rockets, some of which can cover most of Israel's territory. Ashkenazi said he did not know how long the current relative calm in Gaza will last and cautioned that Israel is "on a collision course" with Hamas. He contrasted Gaza with the good situation in the West Bank, but warned that if negotiations with the PA do not start soon, the situation on the West Bank may deteriorate. Regarding the Goldstone Report, Ashkenazi said the IDF cannot allow a situation in which it is restricted from operating in urban areas. He admitted the IDF had made mistakes in Gaza but insisted that they did not deliberately attack civilians. The IDF is checking how to correct errors, but Ashkenazi said the "next battle will be in the same places," i.e. Gaza and southern Lebanon. Ashkenazi praised the readiness of the IDF, noting that soldiers need to know their mission, while commanders need to trust soldiers in the field to make decisions without checking up the line of command. He called for using Israel's technological and intelligence advantages to "reverse the asymmetry" of fighting terrorist organizations. Despite the threats, Ashkenazi expressed confidence in the future, noting that Israel is here to stay. End Summary. ¶2. (U) CODEL Skelton, consisting of House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton (D, MO),Representative Steve Israel (D-NY),Representative Tim Murphy (R, PA), Congressional Staff members Phil McNaughton, Michael Casey, and John Wason, military aides Colonel Jeff Koch and Major Bill Denham and PolCouns met with IDF Chief of General Staff Lt General Gabi Ashkenazi at the MFA November 15. Ashkenazi began the meeting by expressing his appreciation for the Committee's support for Israel over the years. Missile Defense and Cyber Warfare -------------- ¶3. (S) Ashkenazi noted that the threat to Israel from missiles and rockets is more serious than ever, hence the increasing importance of missile defense. Israel's layered approach to missile defense is unique. The Juniper Cobra joint exercise tested various aspects of the system, with about 1400 U.S. troops participating in real time scenarios with Israeli counterparts. Israel now has about ten to twelve minutes' warning of a missile attack from Iran. Chairman Skelton noted the U.S. military is standing up a separate cyber command and asked about the IDF's approach. Ashkenazi responded that he sees cyber warfare as an opportunity as well as a risk. He praised the IDF's "very good relations" with NSA, noting that they are working on solving mutual challenges. Ashkenazi said cyber warfare has great potential in the war against terrorism. The IDF has not established a separate cyber command, but is making a major investment of people and resources in this area, especially since the Iranians are also quite good at it. Still Time for Diplomacy on Iran -------------- ¶4. (S) Turning to Iran, Ashkenazi commented that the world cannot allow this regime to obtain nuclear weapons. There is still time for diplomacy, but we should not forget that Iran's centrifuges are working day and night. Ashkenazi described Iran as "radical but not irrational;" they will change course if they see they are facing a united international community. The problem is that the Iranians do not face a united front since Russia's is not fully on board. Since it is unclear whether Iran will face severe sanctions, Israel needs to be ready for "other options," but Ashkenazi noted that "we are not there yet." He urged the U.S. to TEL AVIV 00002778 002 OF 003 focus on sanctions now. ¶5. (S) Ashkenazi commented that Iran does not only pose a nuclear threat but also supports the radical forces in the region. Chairman Skelton asked about the position of Saudi Arabia. Ashkenazi responded that the Saudis are opposed to Iranian hegemony in the Gulf, but added that private Saudis, not the government, are major funders of terrorist groups, especially Hamas. Egypt and Jordan are also concerned about Iran, he said, adding that President Mubarak says that Iran is promoting regime change in Egypt. Syria Enjoying Both Sides -------------- ¶6. (S) Ashkenazi described Syrian President Asad as enjoying the best of both worlds, smiling to the West while supporting Hizballah and Hamas. Syria is not only trans-shipping weapons to Hizballah from Iran but is also supplying Hizballah directly from Syrian depots. Asad needs to be forced to choose, Ashkenazi said. Syria is vulnerable to pressure since it has a minority regime with a bad economy and its oil is running out. If Syria can be removed from the Iranian axis, it would greatly reduce the threat to Israel from Hizballah and Hamas. At the same time, Ashkenazi admitted that the Golan is Israel's quietest border since the Syrians are very careful not to provoke Israel directly. ¶7. (S) Ashkenazi said Hizballah has behaved in a restrained manner for the past three years. Despite "some problems" in Israel's management of the 2006 Lebanon War, it did deter Hizballah. Hassan Nasrallah does not seek another round with Israel, though Ashkenazi admitted that he did not know for how long that would remain the case. Responding to a question about Hizballah's stockpile of rockets and missiles, Ashkenazi said Hizballah is actually a small army, but 40,000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal, including Iranian missiles capable of hitting Beer Sheva from Lebanon. UNSC Resolution 1701 had proved to be effective in blocking the transfer of arms to Lebanon by sea and air, but it had failed on the ground. Iran sends weapons by sea and air to Syria which then ships them by land to Lebanon. Ashkenazi asserted that Hizballah now has dispersed its stockpiles of rockets and missiles all over Lebanon. Since Hizballah is part of the Lebanese Government again, in the event of hostilities Ashkenazi warned that the GOL and not just Hizballah could be Israel's target. Gaza and the West Bank -------------- ¶8. (S) Ashkenazi said that Hamas is in firm control of Gaza. Hamas has largely stopped the rocket fire at Israel, but it is unclear how long the relative calm will last. He commented that Hamas may continue to restrain the fire as long as they anticipate a prisoner exchange with Israel as part of a deal for the release of Corporal Shalit, but he stressed that Israel is "on a collision course" with Hamas. In the West Bank, by contrast, the situation is improving, as even Abu Mazen and PM Fayyad admit. Ashkenazi praised Lt General Dayton for doing a "very good job" training PA security forces. He said that Israel has reduced checkpoints in order to improve Palestinian access and movement, while the PASF are improving in terms of providing law and order. The problem is with the uncertainty over Abu Mazen's political future. If there are no Israeli-PA negotiations, it may change the situation on the ground in the West Bank as the Palestinian population loses patience with the deadlock. Relative Missile Threats -------------- ¶9. (S) Representative Murphy noted that the U.S. could be drawn in if Israel attacked Iran. Ashkenazi did not reply directly but said that the rocket/missile threat to Israel is principally from Hizballah and Syria, not Iran. Iran has about 300 Shihab missiles capable of hitting Israel. These do not pose a big threat compared to the threats from Hizballah and Syria, which are closer and have increasingly accurate systems. Hamas now also has the capability to hit Tel Aviv with rockets from Gaza. ¶10. (S) Ashkenazi noted that despite progress on missile defense, Israel does not have the capability to cover the country with a shield. One million Israelis now live within range of small rocket fire that cannot be fought from the TEL AVIV 00002778 003 OF 003 air. The IDF is continuing to send drones over Lebanon in order to refine their identification of potential targets, and they are making good progress. The next war will be a combination of fire, stand-off capability and ground maneuver. Goldstone Report -------------- ¶11. (C) In response to a question about whether the Goldstone Report made it more likely that Hizballah would hide its rockets within populated civilian areas, Ashkenazi responded that Hamas and Hizballah were choosing their battlefields in order to limit Israel's military capability. He said he could not allow a situation in which the IDF would be restricted from operating as necessary. No one had forced Hamas to operate from heavily populated areas. During the Gaza ground operation, the IDF had tried innovative means of warning civilians, including taking over Palestinian radio and television broadcasts. Ashkenazi admitted that there were mistakes made, but there was no deliberate targeting of Palestinian civilians. He noted that Israeli soldiers were also hit by mistake. The same tank battalion that hit the house of Dr. Abul Eish and killed his two daughters also hit an IDF infantry unit. The IDF is checking how it conducted operations, but so far they had not discovered a single case of intentionally killing civilians. The Army had even stopped operations in Gaza every day to allow humanitarian supplies to be brought in. Israel needs to explain to the world what it did and why since the "next battle will be conducted in the same places," i.e. Gaza and South Lebanon. Training to Deal with a Changing Environment -------------- ¶12. (C) Representative Israel asked how the IDF is changing its training to deal with the new threat environment. Ashkenazi said he is preparing the IDF for a big war, since it is easier to scale back to small operations than the reverse. Ashkenazi stressed the importance of soldiers knowing and understanding their mission. Given the short time in which decisions must be made on the battlefield, commanders need to trust soldiers to make decisions even though there will be mistakes. In this environment, real time intelligence is more important than ever. The IDF under his command is working very hard to prepare for war before it starts. Ashkenazi said he was focused on finding ways to use Israel's strengths in intelligence and technology to its advantage in order to "reverse the asymmetry." ¶13. (C) Ending on an optimistic note, Ashkenazi urged the CODEL not to heed gloomy assessments of Israel's strategic situation. Israel is strong and is here to stay, he stressed, adding that his parents had not come to Israel from Bulgaria and Morocco only to see their children and grandchildren give up on defending a Jewish state. ¶14. (U) CODEL Skelton did not clear this cable. CUNNINGHAM