ISRAEL'S REACTION TO MORTAR AND ROCKET FIRE

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 000273

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS LE KWBG IS
SUBJECT: ISRAEL'S REACTION TO MORTAR AND ROCKET FIRE
FOLLOWING UNILATERAL CEASE-FIRE


1. (SBU) Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza have
exchanged numerous salvos over the past week, but the
unilateral cease-fires that brought an end to major
hostilities in the Gaza Strip on January 18 have not fully
unraveled. Tensions flared on January 27 when a roadside
bomb struck an Israeli patrol along the border with Gaza,
killing one IDF soldier and injuring three others. Israel
retaliated the same day with at least three airstrikes on the
Gaza Strip. Cross-border exchanges continued with
Palestinians firing a rocket the next day and Israel
responding by striking what officials called a weapons
manufacturing facility. On January 29, another rocket landed
in Israel (no casualties or damage),with the Israeli
retaliation against a Hamas activist causing collateral
injuries to Palestinian civilians. On February 1,
Palestinian militants (according to Israel Defense Forces
sources they probably were not from Hamas) staged their
heaviest barrage since the cease-fire, with close to 20
mortars and rockets striking the western Negev, causing light
injuries to five Israelis. Israel responded late in the
evening of February 1 by bombing a Hamas security building in
Gaza City, along with six smuggling tunnels in the southern
part of the strip, according to the IDF.

ISRAELI POLITICIANS REACT TO ROCKETS


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Olmert told his cabinet on February
1 that he had instructed all the security services to "act
determinedly against any violation of the quiet by Hamas...
The response to a violation of the quiet will be vigorous and
painful, and will come at a time and place that Hamas does
not expect." Despite this declaration, there appears to be
disagreement among the Olmert-Barak-Livni troika involved in
security decisions. Olmert and Livni are prepared to order
what Olmert has called a "disproportionate" response to the
rocket and mortar fire, while Barak prefers to test whether
Hamas will accept and adhere to an Egyptian-mediated truce
that could begin as early as February 5. Livni is reportedly
pushing for a decision to hit Hamas hard and she remains
against an agreement with Hamas.


3. (SBU) Barak told Israeli radio February 2 that the IDF has
hit Hamas "very seriously," but he noted that most of the
Gazan terror organizations violating the cease-fire were
small splinter groups (not the Hamas organization itself).
Barak underscored his view that there is an Israeli interest
in maintaining the cease-fire -- despite the recent firings -
and lambasted his political rivals for their escalatory
rhetoric. Barak commented that "those who need to plan
operations are the best people in the country, who understand
better than a large number of ministers -- the members of the
defense establishment and the IDF General Staff," according
to press reports. Barak reportedly infuriated Livni and her
supporters at the February 1 cabinet meeting when he asserted
that people who have never carried a gun are second-guessing
his security decisions.

SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT CONCERNED ABOUT HIZBALLAH


4. (SBU) Israel meantime is keeping an eye on Hizballah
activities in Lebanon and beyond. The first anniversary of
the assassination of senior Hizballah official Imad Mughniya
(February 12, 2008) is approaching, and Hizballah leader
Hassan Nasrallah has blamed Israel for the killing and has
threatened retaliation. Israeli leaders have publicly warned
Hizballah against targeting Israel or Israeli or Jewish
interests abroad.

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