40TH JPMG: INTERNATIONAL, EXPORT CONTROL AND JSAP

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 002503

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER CH IR RU IS
SUBJECT: 40TH JPMG: INTERNATIONAL, EXPORT CONTROL AND JSAP
DISCUSSION (PART 4 OF 4)

Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (S) Summary: As part of the 40th Joint Political Military
Group, U.S. and Israeli interlocutors discussed Russia,
Afghanistan/Pakistan, and East Asia, focusing specifically on
China. On Russia, both U.S. and GOI officials stressed the
importance of maintaining a balanced relationship with Moscow
vis-a-vis Georgia. GOI officials questioned whether Russia
could be relied upon in any effort to toughen sanctions
against Iran. Assistant Secretary for Political Military
Affairs Andrew Shapiro briefed on U.S. policy in Afghanistan
and Pakistan, stressing the United States' long-term
commitment to the region. Both sides discussed the prospects
of Beijing joining any effort to strengthen sanctions against
Iran, especially given China's energy resource needs.
Israeli interlocutors reiterated the GOI's commitment to its
statement of understanding (SOU) with the United States on
arms transfers to China. However, they noted that the GOI's
relationship with Beijing has suffered as a result, and have
requested further U.S. guidance on an acceptable level of GOI
engagement with China regarding military and dual-use
cooperation. U.S. and Israeli interlocutors also discussed
the GOI's defense export control system. A/S Shapiro and MOD
Director General Pinchas Buchris exchanged Joint Security
Assistance Planning (JSAP) letters confirming understandings
reached between Israel and the United States on FY 2011
foreign military assistance levels to close the JPMG. This
is the last of four cables (septels) reporting on the JPMG.
End summary.


2. (SBU) Main Israeli Participants:

-- Brigadier General (res) Pinchas Buchris, MOD Director
General
-- Major General (ret) Amos Gilad, MOD Political-Military
Chief
-- Brigadier General Ronen Dan, acting Israeli Defense
Attache to the United States
-- Gad Dovev, Director, MOD Mission, New York
-- Alon Bar, MFA Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs
-- Amir Kain, Director, MOD Directorate of Security Defense
Establishment (MALMAB)
-- Eli Pincu, MOD Director of Export Control
-- COL Shimon Arad, IDF J5
-- Rami Yungman, MOD Political-Military Bureau
-- Stefan Deutsch, Director, Technology Relations, MOD
Research and Development Directorate (MAFAT)
-- Schmuel Royter, Assistant to the MOD Director General

Main U.S. Participants:

-- Andrew Shapiro, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of
Political-Military Affairs
-- James Hursch, Director, DTSA
-- Dr. Colin Kahl, International Security Affairs, Deputy
Assistant Secretary of Defense
-- Brigadier General Jefforey Smith, Joint Staff
-- Beth McCormick, Deputy Director, DSCA
-- Prem Kumar, Director for Israeli, Palestinian, Egyptian
and Jordanian Affairs, NSC
-- Tom Goldberger, Director for Israel and Palestinian
Affairs, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
-- COL Richard Burgess, Defense Attache, U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv
-- Robert Maggi, PM Coordinator for Counter Piracy
-- Kevin Maloney, Licensing Director, PM/DTCL

Russia/Georgia
--------------


3. (S) A/S Shapiro provided an overview of the current state
of U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Georgia relations. He noted
Secretary Clinton's recent trip to Moscow focused on
nonproliferation, missile defense, and cooperation regarding
Iran. Following the Russia-Georgia conflict, A/S Shapiro
said that the United States is handling assistance and
training to Georgia with care to ensure avoidance of
unintended consequences. With respect to Russia's
cooperation on Iran, A/S Shapiro pointed to the importance of
creating a record of engagement with Iran, which we can use
to generate international support -- including from Moscow --
if/when further sanctions are necessary. He noted that
Russia is reluctant to "play bad cop" in public regarding
Iran, but also repeated Russian President Medvedev's
statement that sanctions might be necessary at some point.

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4. (S) MOD Political-Military Chief Amos Gilad said Georgia
"used to be a rich country" with abundant natural resources
-- "unfortunately, wisdom was not one of those resources."
He said Georgian President Saakashvili instigated the
conflict with Russia, forgetting that he was the leader of
"only four million people, not 400 (million)." Gilad said
potential Russian arms exports -- including especially the
S-300 -- to the region have the potential to damage Israel's
military edge; as such, it was prudent to remain on good
terms with Moscow by limiting Israeli arms exports and
training to Georgia. He added that Israel has a great deal
of sympathy for the Georgian people -- but ultimately, it was
a question of policy. MFA Director for Export Controls Roey
Gilad asked about U.S. strategy following the Strategic
Agreement with Georgia. A/S Shapiro said he had not yet seen
a read-out from ASD Vershbow regarding the agreement, but
reiterated the importance of striking a balance in our
relations so that Georgia is neither encouraged to pursue
reckless behavior or abandoned in the face of Russian
intimidation.


5. (S) Amos Gilad said Moscow remains very concerned about
NATO expansion, including especially Ukraine for cultural and
historical reasons. He outlined intensive Israeli
consultations across the Russian interagency, and commented
that Moscow is categorically against a nuclear-armed Iran.
That said, Gilad argued that Russian intelligence is not as
good as one might think, as Moscow does not appear convinced
that Iran can develop the capability to produce a nuclear
weapon. Gilad suggested that Russian intelligence services
were also blind regarding North Korea. He summed up by
stating that Moscow remains focused on Iran's nuclear
program, although he was not convinced that the United States
could rely on them to join in on strengthened sanctions.

Afghanistan/Pakistan
--------------


6. (S) A/S Shapiro provided an overview of U.S. policy in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. He noted that the threat of
extremism is a single challenge that spans both Afghanistan
and Pakistan, and pointed to the news of upcoming run-off
elections in Afghanistan and the U.S. policy review as
critical events. A/S Shapiro recited that the USG goal was
to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda, and deprive it of
any safe havens. The ability to provide civilian security
also is crucial, including the development of the economy and
rule of law. He stressed the importance of building trust
and confidence -- and convincing the Afghan people that we
are committed in the long-term to Afghanistan's future. A/S
Shapiro noted progress with Pakistan, which has been more
willing to combat extremism in Swat and South Waziristan. He
cited the importance of providing relief to refugees from
these conflicted areas.


7. (S) DASD Kahl referenced military-to-military discussions
and lessons learned, including whether lessons from Iraq
might be applied to the situation in Afghanistan. He noted,
however, that the fight in Afghanistan is very different than
Iraq, as the United States faces a rural insurgency and
shadow government coupled with an extremely poor population
in Afghanistan. Kahl also noted Afghanistan's expansive
territory and issues with cross-border sanctuaries, and
highlighted the corrupt Karzai government's legitimacy
vis-a-vis the Taliban's shadow government. He stressed the
importance of addressing Afghanistan and Pakistan together,
and noted that India also plays an important role in any
solution.


8. (S) Gilad asked if there was political support for the
U.S. mission in Afghanistan. A/S Shapiro replied that the
United States remains committed to Afghanistan; the current
domestic debate is over the level of this commitment -- and
not whether to stay or withdraw. Gilad inquired about the
India-Pakistan relationship; A/S Shapiro noted efforts to
convince Pakistan that extremists pose more of a threat to
its security than does India. Kahl compared the Pakistani
military's institutional thinking on India to that of Egypt,
which still trains its military for a conflict with Israel.
He described Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban as a
potential hedge against India in order to prevent
encirclement.


TEL AVIV 00002503 003 OF 004


China/East Asia
--------------


9. (S) A/S Shapiro described the U.S.-China
military-to-military relationship as progressing, albeit in
"fits and starts." He noted the United States was committed
to Taiwan's security, and that the Taiwan Relations Act
legally obligates the United States to help provide for
Taiwan's security. It is important to strengthen the
U.S.-China military relationship so that military cooperation
does not suffer following arms transfers to Taiwan, he said.
A/S Shapiro that the Bush Administration's Strategic Economic
Dialogue with China has now evolved into a Strategic AND
Economic Dialogue co-led by the Departments of State and
Treasury, and also cited promising Chinese participation in
anti-piracy efforts. On the other hand, China can do more to
implement effective export controls in order to prevent
Chinese entities from assisting WMD programs of concern. He
stressed the importance of Chinese participation in the
Six-Party Talks with North Korea, and implementation of UNSC
resolution 1874.


10. (S) Gilad noted that the United States needs China for
further sanctions on Iran. He said China's relationship with
Iran is tied to resource needs -- but China seeks to avoid
being isolated on Iran, and therefore needs Russia to
legitimize its policy. DASD Kahl said China prefers the
status quo, i.e., Iran does not currently possess a nuclear
weapon and China continues to benefit from its energy
relationship with Iran. He agreed that China is seeking to
avoid isolation on the sanctions issue. But on the other
hand, he argued, China does not want diplomacy to fail
catastrophically, and would most certainly prefer sanctions
over a conflict. MOD Director General Pinchas Buchris asked
if other countries might be encouraged to sell oil to China
to decrease its energy dependency on Iran; DASD Kahl replied
such an arrangement might have a mitigating role in
persuading China to join in on tougher sanctions for Iran.


11. (S) Buchris described the Israel-China relationship as
"almost zero," and stated Israel will likely need to renew
the relationship. IDF J5 COL Arad expressed concerns over
the proliferation of Chinese weapons into Lebanon and Gaza.
Gilad stressed that Israel remains committed to U.S. national
security interests, but suggested U.S. concerns regarding
Israel's relationship with China are "exaggerated." He said
Israel can no longer ignore its relationship with China,
which could cause Israel considerable harm through Iran and
Syria.


12. (S) Buchris reiterated that Israel is fully committed to
its obligations under the statement of understanding (SOU)
with the United States, but would appreciate guidance from
the United States regarding what is acceptable engagement
with China on both military and dual-use cooperation. MFA
Export Control Director Roey Gilad also inquired whether
Israel might be eligible to participate in a validated
end-user program with Chinese companies. A/S Shapiro noted
the very sensitive nature of the request; DASD Kahl suggested
that further discussion between U.S. technical and subject
matter experts is warranted. A/S Shapiro agreed to take the
GOI request on board with the hope of providing further
guidance for the initial meeting of the QME policy/intel
sub-group.

Export Controls
--------------


13. (S) MOD Director for Export Controls Eli Pincu briefly
presented on the Israel defense export control system. He
highlighted the registration and licensing process, and said
the GOI expects over 1,000 Israeli companies to participate
in this year's annual defense export control conference -- up
from 700 last year. A/S Shapiro noted that the GOI has made
progress with its defense export control system, and outlined
plans for our export control reform initiative. DTSA
Director James Hursch and DSCA Deputy Director Beth McCormick
commended Pincu's hard work, and wished him luck in his new
assignment in Berlin. McCormick noted the effective GOI
interagency process regarding defense export controls, a
strong partnership with Israeli industry, and a timely
decision-making process. In response to a question from
PM/DTCL Licensing Director Kevin Maloney, Pincu said the
Defense Export Control Directorate would soon obtain

TEL AVIV 00002503 004 OF 004


additional personnel.

JSAP
--------------


14. (S) The IDF presented several briefs on its force
structure and sustainability, budget, and an update on
U.S.-Israel military cooperation, the Military-to-Military
meeting, and missile defense exercise Juniper Cobra (JC10).
A/S Shapiro and Buchris exchanged Joint Security Assistance
Planning (JSAP) letters confirming understandings reached
between Israel and the United States on FY 2011 foreign
military assistance levels and other related subjects.


15. (U) A/S Shapiro has cleared this cable.

CUNNINGHAM