MOD SETTLEMENTS STRATEGY DEPENDENT ON US-ISRAEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002409

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NEA/IPA FOR
GOLDBERGER/HOLMSTROM; NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR; JCS FOR
GENERAL SELVA; OPS PLEASE PASS TO SECRETARY'S TRAVELING
PARTY,SENATOR MITCHELL AND ASSISTANT SECRETARY FELTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS KPAL KWBG
SUBJECT: MOD SETTLEMENTS STRATEGY DEPENDENT ON US-ISRAEL
NEGOTIATIONS

Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The MOD is taking a wait-and-see approach
on both settlements and outposts, pending the outcome of
USG-GOI negotiations on a moratorium, according to Oded
Herman, Senior Advisor to MOD Pol-Mil Director Amos Gilad.
On settlements, Herman noted that any MOD attempts to
restrict the implementation of approved regional/local
settlement construction plans would instigate lawsuits or
require government compensation for monies already invested
by construction companies, banks, or buyers who have paid for
their homes (i.e., for any projects that already have been
contracted out to, marketed by, or tendered to companies).
Herman said on outposts that the MOD has put on hold
development of plans to dismantle outposts established after
March 2001 and has ceased negotiations with settler leaders
for voluntary evacuation of those sites. In response to
questions on upcoming hearings on court-ordered
dismantlements at three outposts, Herman told EconCouns and
Econoff that the MOD planned to ask the Israeli High Court
for additional extensions due to "the sensitive domestic and
international climate." (COMMENT: This is the first time our
GOI interlocutors have linked inaction on outposts to
negotiations of a settlement moratorium.) END SUMMARY AND
COMMENT.


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SETTLEMENT CONSTRUCTION
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2. (C) On October 21, Oded Herman, Senior Advisor to
MOD-Pol-Mil Director Amos Gilad, told EconCouns and Econoff
that the MOD was awaiting agreement between the USG and GOI
on settlements before taking any action on curbing settlement
construction. In response to questions regarding a recent
Peace Now report documenting new construction in 34 West Bank
settlements, Herman opined that the majority of this
construction was likely legal and being built under regional
or local settlement plans approved "years ago." Herman noted
GOI concern that, absent an overall GOI decision to take
measures to freeze settlements, any MOD attempt to stop
construction would instigate lawsuits or entail government
compensation for monies already invested by construction
companies, banks, or buyers who have paid for their homes. He
opined that settlers and building companies likely feel
threatened by the possibility of a settlement moratorium and
are attempting to build as much as possible under previously
approved plans in order to grandfather in these projects as
existing construction in any USG-GOI agreement on
settlments. Herman reminded Emboffs that in the West Bnk,
local settlement councils issue building perits, not the
MOD. (NOTE: Although Herman was tlking about construction
projects that are alread proceeding, the GOI would also
likely have to cncel and compensate investors to walk away
from rojects that have been already contracted out,
mrketed, or tendered if it were to implement a protracted
freeze. For a permanent freeze, the GOI would have to cancel
the approval of any unimplemented plans. END NOTE)


3. (C) In a separate October 19 meeting, Peace Now's
Settlement Watch Coordinator Hagit Ofran (PLEASE STRICTLY
PROTECT) told Econoff that she met with Eitan Broshi,
Settlement Advisor to Defense Minister Barak, following the
publication of the organization's most recent report.
Broshi, who requested the meeting, was reportedly "eager" to
meet with Ofran and discussed with her each instance of
settlement construction reported by Peace Now. Ofran noted
that Broshi did not appear to be aware of the recent
construction in some settlements and questioned the legality
of construction in some others.


4. (C) According to Ofran, the Civil Administration does not
enforce construction laws inside the settlements' official
municipal boundaries, under a 1998 directive from the IDF
Central Command. This limits the extent to which the Civil
Administration is aware of ongoing illegal construction,
allowing settlers to continue building without much concern.
Ironically, local settlement councils--which often initiate,
fund, and support legal and illegal construction--are largely
responsible for identifying unauthorized building going on
within settlement boundaries. (COMMENT: Based on Ofran's
observations, it appears that the only way the GOI could
effectively monitor a construction moratorium would be to
increase its surveillance and its enforcement within each

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settlement. END COMMENT)


5. (C) Peace Now's October 5 report claims that since
spring 2009, settlers have started construction on some 800
units in 34 West Bank settlements. This construction largely
consists of infrastructure work--land clearing, pipe laying,
and road preparation--however, according to Ofran, 50
buildings are currently under construction and foundations
have been laid for another 50. Ofran told Econoff that
construction in at least four settlements lacks government
approvals: Avnei Hefetz (10 units); Nokdim (10 units),Kokhav
Ya'acov (12 units),Alonei Shilo (2 units),Shilo (units
unknown). Yesh Din additionally claims new construction has
commenced in the settlements of Rosh Zurim, Nili, and Bracha,
though we do not yet have independent confirmation of this
assertion.


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OUTPOSTS
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6. (C) Herman also told Emboffs that any MOD strategy on
outposts will depend on the outcome of negotiations between
U.S. Special Envoy Mitchell and Prime Minister Netanyahu's
office. Despite previous statements by Defense Minister Barak
saying that the MOD would evacuate outposts this month, the
MOD has made no effort to develop plans to dismantle outposts
established after March 2001 and has ceased negotiations with
settler leaders for the voluntary evacuation of those sites.
Herman lamented, "there's no one to talk to," and explained
that YESHA Council leaders are not only unable to deliver any
voluntary outpost evacuations, but are also losing authority
with the settlers. Herman also voiced concern over the growth
of anarchist groups within West Bank settlements.
Individuals in these groups not only oppose outpost
evacuation, but are quick to use violence and cannot be
controlled because they do not identify with or respect any
leadership (government, YESHA, or rabbis),according to
Herman.


7. (C) Regarding two upcoming court cases on the evacuation
of the Derech Ha'avot outpost and the demolition of 18 homes
in the Hayovel and Haresha outposts, Herman said the MOD
plans to request additional extensions from the Israeli High
Court due to "the sensitive international and domestic
climate." The Civil Administration has not acted on about 25
demolition orders for the Derech Ha'avot outpost issued since

2007. This outpost is entirely located on private Palestinian
land. The Hayovel and Haresha case has been in court for
approximately four years, during which time, the MOD has
requested 20 extensions delaying the court order to demolish
these 18 homes.


8. (C) COMMENT: While Herman and others have put off our past
queries on the status of Barak's previously announced plans
to demolish 26 post-March-2001 outposts, this is the first
time this issue--a longstanding Roadmap commitment--has been
linked by the GOI to the Mitchell-Molcho discussions on
settlements. We urge Washington to encourage Israel to meet
its commitments on outposts and uphold Israeli law, as
instructed by High Court regardless of the outcome of
US-Israel negotiations. While we would additionally welcome
a decision by Israel to freeze settlements, the USG should be
clear that an effective moratorium would entail the
cancellation and, if necessary, compensation of other
approved, but not yet implemented settlement plans.
CUNNINGHAM