CODEL ROHRABACHER DISCUSSES PEACE PROCESS,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002098

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IR IS
SUBJECT: CODEL ROHRABACHER DISCUSSES PEACE PROCESS,
REGIONAL SECURITY WITH ISRAELI LEADERS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Luis G. Moreno for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) visited Israel
August 19-21 for a series of meetings with Israeli officials,
primarily focused on the peace process, regional security
issues, and arms sales. Rohrabacher met with Minister of
Strategic Affairs Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon, Deputy Foreign
Minister Danny Ayalon, Advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu
Ron Dermer, and Ministry of Defense Chief of Staff Brig. Gen.
Mike Herzog. The Israelis expressed some pessimism about the
willingness of the Palestinians to forge a lasting peace, but
said they are prepared to do much to improve the well-being
of Palestinians in the West Bank. Rohrabacher's
interlocutors noted continued improvements in Palestinian
security forces' performance and cooperation with Israel,
while Herzog also noted improvement in Jordanian and Egyptian
counterterrorism and countersmuggling operations. The
unpopularity of the ruling regime in Iran prompted the
Israelis to theorize about ways to take advantage of the
situation, and they stressed Iran's destabilizing role in the
region. Finally, Rohrabacher discussed Israeli technology
transfers and arms sales practices, noting particular
concerns about sales to China. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Accompanying Rohrabacher was House Foreign Affairs
Committee staff member Paul Berkowitz and Rohrabacher staff
member Fadi Essmaeel. PolCouns and Poloff accompanied them
to their GOI meetings.

LOOKING FOR A PALESTINIAN PEACE PARTNER


3. (C) Rep. Rohrabacher and his Israeli interlocutors spent
considerable time discussing the prospects for peace with the
Palestinians. A key concern voiced by the Israelis was the
Palestinian Authority's refusal to recognize Israel as a
Jewish state "without using weasel words," as Dermer
explained. Ya'alon said the Netanyahu government's review of
Israeli policy toward the Palestinians since the Oslo
Agreements had reached the conclusion that the core issue was
not Israeli settlements or territories occupied in 1967 but
rather Palestinian refusal to come to terms with Israel's
right to exist in any boundaries. Dermer and Ya'alon used
almost identical wording when explaining that PA President
Abbas views Judaism as a religion and not a nationality and
refuses to accept the principle of "two states for two
peoples", which they concluded means that Abbas does not
believe the Jews are entitled to a state. Ya'alon and Dermer
also expressed doubt that the Palestinians would be willing
to declare an end of conflict and the relinquishment of all
Palestinian claims following an agreement and would rather
insist on re-opening issues after a peace accord was signed.


4. (C) Nonetheless, the Israelis were hopeful that progress
could be made. Ayalon assured Rohrabacher that the Netanyahu
government had a strong mandate and that the government's
credibility would allow it to make significant compromises.
Dermer stressed that Netanyahu's Bar Ilan speech represented
a consensus policy in Israel. "This is the least divided
Israelis have been for a long time," he explained. He added
that Netanyahu's recently announced support for a two-state
solution (provided that the Palestinian state be
demilitarized and subject to certain other limitations on its
sovereignty) means that leaders from Israel's left, center,
and right had now all crossed that "Rubicon," but he lamented
that no Palestinian leader had done something comparable in
terms of accepting the Jewish state. Ya'alon noted his
strong support for Netanyahu's bottom-up approach to peace
and stressed the importance of supporting moderates and
demonstrating that the lives of average Palestinians will
improve under this approach. He cautioned, however, that it
would be a long process that might not reach a resolution for
another 20 years.

REGIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS


5. (C) In response to Rohrabacher's question whether Israel
would have to restructure its military forces following a
peace agreement with the Palestinians, Herzog said that there
would be some changes but that the prospect for peace seemed
far off, making it difficult to provide such an assessment.
He noted that one change already taking place was the removal
of checkpoints in the West Bank. When Rohrabacher noted that
a Palestinian official he had spoken with earlier that day
claimed that no checkpoints had been removed, Herzog replied
that 15 months ago there were 41 fixed checkpoints in the
West Bank while now there are only 14.


6. (C) Herzog praised the performance of Palestinian
security forces, calling them more professional and capable
than they had been. He added that it was interesting that a
key issue for HAMAS during Egyptian-sponsored reconciliation

TEL AVIV 00002098 002 OF 002


talks with Fatah was to terminate Lt. Gen. Dayton's program
to train PA security forces. Despite the PASF's improvement
and their success in restoring law and order, they have a
long way to go to develop into a credible counter- terrorism
force, however. Herzog added that the more the PA does, the
less the Israelis have to do, noting the removal of a
checkpoint near Qalqilya following a successful PA
counterterrorism operation there.


7. (C) Rohrabacher then asked about regional cooperation
against terrorism and smuggling. Herzog responded that the
Jordanians are doing a good job, especially when it comes to
any threats to their own country. The Egyptians were doing
more than they had ever done in terms of counter- smuggling
operations, with one key indicator being the rise in prices
in Gaza. The Egyptians could do more, however, and they need
constant encouragement, he explained.

IRAN IS THE BIG THREAT


8. (S) Ayalon noted that Iran is the region's major
concern, as it pursues nuclear weapons but also undermines
the whole region with its support for Hizballah, Islamic
Jihad, and dissident groups in Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf
countries. Iran's attempts to be a hegemonic power are
frightening to the Arabs, according to Ayalon. Herzog noted
it was difficult to assess whether Iran would be a nuclear
state in the next 12 months, as there were both technical and
political elements to consider, along with questions about
the existence or extent of Iranian clandestine efforts.
Regardless, he said that the Iranians already have enough
material for one device and that "we" should not act as if
there is a lot of time. Both Herzog and Ya'alon assessed
that the Iranian regime was highly unpopular at home, but
Herzog said it is impossible to estimate how long it would
survive. This unpopularity could provide an opportunity to
isolate the regime and force it to choose between the desire
to possess a nuclear weapons capacity or embark on a more
moderate path that would help ensure its survival. Ya'alon
added that Israel coordinates overtly and covertly with Sunni
regimes against Iran, explaining that these regimes speak
publicly against Israel, but privately against Iran.

CONCERNS ABOUT ARMS SALES


9. (S) Rohrabacher queried Herzog on Israeli policy
regarding weapons sales to China, noting the risk that China
- or countries to which China would re-export - could end up
using those weapons or that weapons technology against Israel
and the U.S. Herzog replied that Israel has not sold arms to
China for several years following a disagreement with the
U.S. over the sale of AWACS planes to China that Israel
eventually scrapped. "We recognize American sensitivity on
this subject." Rohrabacher also brought up his concerns
about China to Ayalon, who replied that Israel had made this
mistake once because it did not understand the gravity of the
U.S. concerns, adding that as a result, new legislation was
passed and the MFA was given a role in reviewing all arms
sales in order to ensure that a similar problem would not
arise. In response to a question whether other countries the
U.S. was providing weapons to could pose a threat to Israel,
Herzog replied that some elements of a proposed sale of
F-15's to Saudi Arabia are "problematic" in that Israel does
not have access to the same technology. He characterized
Israel's concerns as not being the result of fears that Saudi
Arabia would attack Israel, but that the sales were
"precedent setting."


10. (U) CODEL Rohrabacher has cleared this cable.

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