OPPOSITION LEADER LIVNI TALKS PEACE PROCESS, IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002045

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG PTER IR SY IS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER LIVNI TALKS PEACE PROCESS, IRAN
WITH CODEL GILLIBRAND

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Luis G. Moreno for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Sen. Gillibrand met on September 3 with
Kadima Chairman and Knesset opposition leader Tzipi Livni.
Livni told Gillibrand that Israel must reach a two-state
solution with the Palestinians that represents an end to the
conflict and does not include a right of return for
Palestinian refugees. Ending the conflict is a common
U.S.-Israeli interest, and Israel should work with the U.S.
approach. She said that stagnation must be avoided and that
the U.S. could prod each side closer to agreement. Livni
said that Israel's approach should be to work with
Palestinian moderates and oppose extremists. HAMAS has
control of the Gaza Strip but has no interest in peace. She
added that a recent poll showing support for HAMAS among
Gazans had declined provided some hope that Israel's policy
of isolating HAMAS could work over time. Livni then
discussed the broader battle between moderates and extremists
in the region, suggesting ways to counter extremists. She
expressed concern that Gulf states could choose to appease
Iran if it were clear that the West would not prevent Iran
from becoming a regional power. She also suggested Qs to
encourage greater cooperation on Iran from China and Russia.
Finally, Livni discussed Syria and Lebanon, noting that the
former was playing a negative role in the region, while the
latter was an example of a rising trend of eroding state
authority. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Sen. Gillibrand was accompanied by her advisor,
Elana Broitman, U.S. Army Senate Liaison Officer Maj. Jen
McDonough, PolCouns, and PolOff. Present on the Israeli side
were Livni, political advisor Gil Messing, and Yaron Sidemen
of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

--------------
PEACE PROCESS VISION
--------------


3. (C) Livni stressed repeatedly to Gillibrand that a
two-state solution was good for the Palestinians and the
U.S., but that it was also good for Israeli national
interests. The U.S. and Israel should have a joint work plan
to advance peace. She emphasized, however, that a peace
agreement with the Palestinians should not include a right of
return for refugees, and that it must address all issues so
that it is clear it represents an end to the conflict. When
asked if she felt that things were moving in the right
direction, Livni responded that she does not see any movement
and cautioned against conducting negotiations for the sake of
negotiating. "There are difficult decisions to be made, but
everyone must understand that the price we will pay for
stagnation is worse." In response to Senator Gillibrand's
question whether she felt she had done the right thing by
staying out of Netanyahu's government, Livni said she did not
see a determination by the GOI to do what is needed to reach
an agreement with the Palestinians. Defining the borders of
Israel and Palestine would resolve the dispute over
settlements. Livni said she represents the Israeli public's
desire for peace.


4. (C) Gillibrand asked what the U.S. could do to help
negotiations advance. Livni replied that she believes in
bilateral negotiations and decisions by the Israeli and
Palestinian leaderships. But
when the leaders cannot make a deal, the U.S. will need to
bridge the gaps. The U.S. role is crucial. The U.S. needs
to help establish the parameters for the negotiations,
including defining the borders with consideration for the
settlement blocs, and addressing the security issues that
Israel has raised. The formula must be "two states for two
peoples." While Israelis can live comfortably with quiet,
stagnation will breed frustration and violence on the
Palestinian side.


5. (C) Livni explained that Israel needs a Palestinian
leadership committed to peace that is strong enough to
deliver on its vision. She lamented, however, that the
moderate forces of PA President Abbas and Prime Minister
Salaam Fayyad are committed but not able to deliver, while
HAMAS was able to deliver, but only on its vision of violent
"resistance." Gillibrand asked Livni how HAMAS's rule over
Gaza factored into the peace process. Livni responded that
Israel must conduct negotiations with moderate Palestinian
forces while it continues to try to delegitimize HAMAS. If
an agreement with the moderate leadership can be reached, it
will initially only be a piece of paper. There must be
parameters to set the borders and address Israel's security
needs, including Palestinian acceptance of the end of
conflict. Gillibrand asked if the policy of isolating and
delegitimizing HAMAS influenced Palestinians in Gaza. Livni

TEL AVIV 00002045 002 OF 002


cited a new poll showing a decline in support for HAMAS and
said this represented the first evidence that the policy
could work, though she assessed it would be a long time
before the leadership of Gaza changes.

--------------
THE BATTLE BETWEEN MODERATES AND EXTREMISTS
--------------


6. (C) Livni said one of Israel's greatest challenges was
finding a way to strengthen moderate forces in the region and
to counter the extremists. She explained that Iran, Hamas,
and Hizballah do not accept the rights of others to exist and
that HAMAS and Hizballah were forces that did not represent
the interests of the nations in whose name they act. She saw
hope, however, in the apparent understanding among some in
the Arab World that Iran -- not Israel -- is the enemy, as it
seeks to undermine regimes throughout the Middle East. She
dismissed the argument that when a fundamentalist movement
joins the political process they become moderate, saying this
has not been true with Hizballah and HAMAS. She then
discussed her idea for the international community to create
and adopt a universal code for elections that would require
all political parties to renounce violence and terror. She
provided examples of Israel's Supreme Court barring a far
right-wing party for its racist views, along with Spain,
which she said banned a Basque party from running in
elections. She noted her understanding that Iraq's new
constitution included such a clause. Livni added that she
thought that such a universal code could help some of the
moderate Arab regimes counter radical elements in their
countries. Senator Gillibrand said she would raise this
issue in Congress and with the White House.

--------------
COUNTERING THE BULLY
--------------


7. (C) Livni told Sen. Gillibrand that it is a mistake to
discuss Iran in terms of when that country would become a
nuclear state. It is already a "bully" in the region, she
explained. While many Gulf states want Iran's power checked,
they will not say so publicly nor participate in any
sanctions regime. She added that if Gulf states feel that
the world is not determined to stop Iran then these countries
will choose appeasement. When asked to assess Russia and
China's role in containing Iran, Livni said China is
motivated by a potential decline in energy imports and trade
with Iran, and that a key question is how to replace what
China could lose if it distanced itself from Tehran. She
speculated that Gulf countries' contribution to the fight
against Iran could be increasing their energy and commercial
trade with China. With regard to Russia, Livni said that
President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin speak of their
concerns about Iran, but that there is a gap between their
words and their actions in the UNSC. She added, however,
that Russian leaders were pleased by the new U.S.
Administration's positive posture toward Russia, which
suggested to her that the climate might be right to engage
Moscow on the Iran issue. Livni concluded that time is of
the essence in dealing with Iran.

--------------
SYRIA AND LEBANON
--------------


8. (C) Gillibrand queried Livni on Syria's role in the
region. Livni explained that Syrian President Bashar al-Asad
is motivated by regime survival, and that shared strategic
interests -- not religious zeal -- are behind his ties to
Hizballah, HAMAS, and Iran. There are different views in
Israel regarding whether or not Asad is ready to cut ties to
these extremists, but it is clear he is currently playing a
negative role in the region. Livni added that if a peace
agreement were signed with Syria, Damascus must then not be
part of "this terror axis." Livni touched only briefly on
Lebanon, noting that Israel's northern neighbor is an example
of a global trend of eroding state authority. Hizballah is
part of the government, but it is also an armed militia that
exercises authority independent of the central government,
she explained. Livni said Israel should work with the U.S.
and a coalition of regional moderates.


9. (U) CODEL Gillibrand has cleared this report.

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM