LIKUD RIGHT WING FLEXES ITS MUSCLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001955

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: LIKUD RIGHT WING FLEXES ITS MUSCLES

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Luis G. Moreno for reasons 1.4 (
b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. Israeli media reports claiming that Prime
Minister Netanyahu's has agreed to a temporary freeze on
settlement construction in the West Bank has mobilized
opposition within elements of the Likud party. A small but
vocal group of junior Knesset Members (MKs) announced plans
for a meeting next week to counter moves toward a settlement
freeze, and two mid-level Cabinet members have agreed to
attend. Opponents of a settlement freeze also plan to work
through the Likud party's governing bodies to prevent a halt
to construction. Netanyahu attempted to preempt opposition
to a temporary freeze by apparently authorizing a background
briefing to reporters in which his office said hundreds of
new housing units would be approved before a freeze took
effect. Notably for Netanyahu, probably the most influential
Likud members of the Cabinet -- Minister Benny Begin and Vice
Prime Minister and Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe
"Bogie" Ya'alon -- have not sided with the Prime Minister's
opponents, and the fact that the government has passed a two
year budget removes a vehicle that disaffected Likud MKs
could use to pressure the PM. Netanyahu also has received
some support in the party for his moves, and he can rely on
some procedural advantages to limit opportunities for
dissent. End Summary.

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NETANYAHU'S RIGHT FLANK STIRRING TROUBLE
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2. (C) Netanyahu continues to face some opposition from
within his Likud Party with regard to reports of his response
to U.S. demands for a settlement freeze. While it is too
soon to call it a "rebellion", a group of approximately a
half-dozen mostly newly-elected and junior MKs object to
Netanyahu's support for a two-state solution (with caveats)
and his reported willingness to impose a temporary freeze on
settlement building. The most recent flare-up of opposition
followed media accounts on September 3 that Netanyahu had
agreed to a temporary freeze. Right wing Likud MKs led by
firebrands Danny Danon and Tzipi Hotovely quickly announced
plans for a meeting next week during which they will discuss
ways to oppose a halt to settlement construction. Minister
of Information and the Diaspora Yuli Edelstein and Minister
of Communications Moshe Kahlon are the most senior members of
the party who said they would attend, though Edelstein
emphasized that his participation would be in support of
settlement construction rather than to oppose Netanyahu.


3. (SBU) Regional Development Minister Silvan Shalom said he
would not attend, but that he would host his own event next
week at which he is expected to detail his opposition to a
settlement freeze, which Shalom has said publicly should not
be offered in advance of negotiations. Settlement freeze
opponents, meantime, have begun petitioning Likud Central
Committee (LCC) members to convene to discuss the
construction halt. Netanyahu has effective control of the
LCC, but settler interests are well represented there and
Netanyahu would prefer to avoid such a public battle.

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TWO KEY FIGURES STAYING OUT OF THE FRAY THUS FAR
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3. (C) Netanyahu appears to maintain the support of Begin
and Ya'alon, both of whom sit well to Netanyahu's right.
Part of their willingness to tolerate at least a temporary
freeze probably stems from an expectation that Arab states
will not prove willing to expand ties with Israel, and that
Palestinian refusal to engage the Netanyahu government will
scuttle the peace process and settlement building can
continue. Begin is perhaps the key barometer of Netanyahu's
support from the right wing, as he was cheered by peace
process opponents and skeptics in 1997 when he quit the Likud
to protest then-Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision to
redeploy troops from Hebron. Begin's importance to Netanyahu
was evident prior to Netanyahu's Bar Ilan speech, in which he
first announced his support for a demilitarized Palestinian
state. Netanyahu worked closely with Begin to ensure that
the speech would not prompt the latter's departure from
government. Begin in public comments has reiterated his
opposition to a Palestinian state and a settlement freeze,
but has refrained from criticizing Netanyahu or openly
aligning himself with the more vocal opponents of Netanyahu
within the party. Ya'alon has said he would not attend next
week's meeting, though he is on record opposing a settlement
freeze. Ya'alon has a history as an independent thinker
willing to openly oppose his superiors, so his modest
reaction to reports of a temporary settlement freeze suggest
the timing is not ripe for a full rebellion within Likud.

TEL AVIV 00001955 002 OF 002



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NOT ALL IS BAD FOR NETANYAHU
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4. (C) In addition to Begin and Ya'alon, most other
ministers appear to be avoiding the nascent rebellion.
Education Minister and number three on Likud's electoral list
Gideon Sa'ar was the first to publicly rally behind the Prime
Minister, calling on Likud activists to back their leader and
declaring his faith that Bibi is protecting Israel's
overriding political and security interests in maintaining
close ties to the U.S. and avoiding international isolation.
Netanyahu also tried to help his own cause by apparently
authorizing his staff to inform the media that hundreds of
new housing units would be approved before a freeze took
effect. Going forward, Netanyahu also may be able to limit
opportunities for vocal opposition to any settlement freeze,
as Minister Edelstein noted that the Prime Minister does not
have to bring a construction freeze to a vote in the cabinet.
He also does not have to worry about MKs using the budget
vote as a protest vehicle because earlier this year he
ushered through a two-year budget.


5. (C) COMMENT: Netanyahu probably would find some
political utility in a containable uprising from his right
wing. He frequently informs his interlocutors that he
represents the new consensus in Israel, and we can envision
him pointing to opposition from the right as buttressing his
claim to own the political center. We also would not be
surprised if Netanyahu cites the actions of his Likud
opponents as evidence that he cannot move far nor fast on the
peace process. END COMMENT.

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