LIEBERMAN INDICTMENT SCENARIOS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001838

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS
SUBJECT: LIEBERMAN INDICTMENT SCENARIOS

REF: TEL AVIV 1717 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Reftel reported that the Israeli police recommended
August 2 that Attorney General Mazuz indict Foreign Minister
Lieberman on bribery, money laundering, obstruction of
justice, and other charges. Political insider and media
commentator Alon Pinkas (protect) reviewed the legal process
with PolCouns August 13. Once Mazuz decides to accept the
police recommendation, which virtually all Israeli observers
believe he will, Mazuz must notify Lieberman in writing that
he is about to be indicted. Mazuz would meet with Lieberman
and his attorneys, and then schedule a hearing, following
which a formal indictment would be issued. Pinkas thought
Mazuz would make his decision by October, after the Jewish
High Holidays. In that scenario, a formal indictment could
take until the end of 2009 or early 2010.


2. (C) Mazuz, however, is due to leave office at the end of

2009. Pinkas said that Lieberman's attorneys could play for
time, using the number of separate charges and huge amount of
evidence collected by the police as an argument for a delay,
which would put the hearing after Mazuz's departure from
office. Pinkas commented that Mazuz is likely to want to
issue the indictment against Lieberman before he leaves
office, since it would be the last major corruption case to
be handled by Mazuz, a man known for his determination to
clean up Israeli politics by holding a series of very senior
officials, including former President Katzav and former Prime
Minister Olmert, to account. Mazuz also may want to restore
the damage to his reputation that resulted from his
indecisive handling of accusations of rape against Katzav by
being tough on Lieberman, in Pinkas' view. Pinkas added,
however, that Mazuz's successor as Attorney General, no
matter who he or she turns out to be, will also almost
certainly want to indict Lieberman early on in order to
demonstrate a similar commitment to justice and
accountability by the high and mighty.


3. (SBU) Comment. While an actual indictment may not be
issued until next year, Mazuz's office announced August 17,
in response to a letter from an organization demanding that
Mazuz force Lieberman to resign, that Lieberman may legally
retain his ministerial post until a decision to indict has
been made. Based on this statement, it appears to us that
Mazuz believes that Lieberman will have to resign once Mazuz
makes a decision to indict as opposed to when the actual
indictment is issued. If so, Lieberman may have to step down
in the fall, though precise dates are impossible to predict
at this point.

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MORENO