MOD SAYS NO MASS OUTPOST EVACUATION PLANNED,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001657

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE. NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR. JOINT STAFF
FOR LTGEN SELVA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KWBG IS
SUBJECT: MOD SAYS NO MASS OUTPOST EVACUATION PLANNED,
DESPITE SECURITY FORCE TRAINING

REF: TEL AVIV 1656


1. (SBU) On 23 July, Amos Gilad, director of the MOD's
Political Military Bureau, told Ambassador that recent
Israeli press reports inaccurately stated that the MOD is
planning a one-day mass evacuation of outposts (reftel). From
21-22 June, Ha'aretz reported that the MOD had formulated a
plan, approved by PM Netanyahu, to evacuate 23 post-March
2001 outposts. The reports further claimed that Border
Police, Civil Police and the IDF held joint exercises two
weeks ago to prepare for the pending operation. IDF and
Police spokespersons immediately denied the existence of any
such plan. Gilad opined that the press claims were meant to
agitate and galvanize pro-settler groups and prevent ongoing
IDF operations against illegal outposts. He acknowledged that
security forces are actively training for outpost
evacuations, but said that no plan yet been formulated. Gilad
also expressed frustration with the politicization of the
issue, and stressed that the evacuations of outposts is a
matter of law and order.

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Could Such a Plan Work?
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2. (SBU) LTC (res) Ron Shatzberg from the Economic
Cooperation Foundation told EconOff on 22 July that such a
plan may exist, contrary to the denials of the security
establishment, and expressed optimism that a large scale
evacuation, if undertaken, could succeed. He provided a map
showing locations of the outposts in question and their
populations, and opined that a large-scale operation could
spread settler groups thin and frustrate their efforts to
protest or block evacuations. Moreover, since most of the
outposts are on hilltops, Shatzberg explained that security
forces would have an easier time controlling access to the
sites. Shatzberg said that the most difficult part of any
such operations would be dealing with settler violence and
vandalism targeting Palestinians, and expressed concern that
security forces would less likely be prepared to effectively
deal with such actions. (Note: The aforementioned map can be
viewed in the "Reporting Attachments" folder on Embassy Tel
Aviv's classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv/. End note.)


3. (SBU) Shatzberg asserted that to achieve greatest success,
security forces must remove all caravans from the West Bank,
raze permanent structures, and find a way to render
infrastructure (roads, water and electrical access, etc.)
unusable. When Econoff asked about speculation that the IDF
is worried about significant numbers of soldier refusing to
participate in such an operation, Shatzberg, who served in
Gaza during the disengagement, expressed confidence that the
rank and file will carry out their orders, and that the IDF
will find alternate duties for those deemed at high risk for
refusal.

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Settler Groups Prepared to Oppose Evacuations
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4. (U) Settler groups recently established a command center
to help identify imminent evacuations and mobilize their
supporters. Ha'aretz reported and Shatzberg confirmed to
EconOff that settlers have posted signs throughout the West
Bank asking anyone who observes unusual movements by security
forces to call a 24-hour outpost hotline. Shatzberg called
the hotline and verified that it is up and running.


5. (SBU) Comment: We would expect the MOD/IDF to deny the
existence of a large-scale evacuation plan even if it
existed. However, if they do plan a mass evacuation, security
forces have certainly lost the element of surprise.
Nonetheless, as LTC (res) Shatzberg noted, because of the
geographic spread and terrain of the outposts, settler groups
would likely have a difficult time staging effective
protests. Moreover, the GOI's recent string of small outpost
evacuations has likely given them some insight to the likely
response of settlers. The lessons learned from these
small-scale operations raise serious concerns, since settler
response has been heavily focused against the persons and
property of Palestinians (which the settlers refer to as
their 'price tag' policy). In our upcoming meetings with MOD
we plan to emphasize this concern, while stressing that that
if such a plan exists and is acted upon, it would confirm the
rule of law in Israel and Israel's commitment to the Road Map.

TEL AVIV 00001657 002 OF 002



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