MOFAZ CHALLENGING LIVNI WHILE NETANYAHU COURTS BOTH

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: MOFAZ CHALLENGING LIVNI WHILE NETANYAHU COURTS BOTH


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Former Defense Minister and current
Kadima Knesset Member (MK) Shaul Mofaz in recent weeks has
been more vocal and direct in challenging party leader
Tzipi Livni's leadership. Mofaz's recent statements -- in
which he questioned her ability to lead, faulted her for
not joining the government, and laid out his own plan to
advance the peace process -- have increased speculation
that Kadima could eventually split, with some members
joining Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition. Netanyahu
appears to be fostering such divisions in Kadima in an
effort to keep his party's main rival down and also to
provide himself with options should any of his current
coalition partners withdraw from the government. End
Summary.

MOFAZ STILL EYEING LEADERSHIP OF KADIMA
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2. (SBU) Mofaz's leadership aspirations come as no
surprise for a man who rose to the top echelon of Israel's
military before being named Defense Minister in his first
political role. He later served as Deputy PM and Minister
of Transportation in Ehud Olmert's government. Mofaz
nearly achieved his goal of leading Kadima last September
when he lost the leadership primary to Tzipi Livni by less
than 500 votes, a loss that surely still stings. Mofaz
appears to have never fully mended ties with Livni, and has
been an almost invisible number two in the party since last
year's primary. When he has commented publicly on Kadima
strategies and tactics, he has largely avoided direct
attacks against Livni, preferring instead to allow his
audience to makes its own inferences. His most consistent
target for criticism has been his Livni's inability to form
a government in late 2008 and her refusal to join
Netanyahu's coalition.

RAISING THE STAKES
--------------


3. (SBU) Mofaz in recent weeks has become more outspoken
and direct in his criticism of Livni. Israeli press
reported on June 26 that Mofaz, who was hosting close
associates in his home, said he cannot envision Livni as
prime minister and that she had never accomplished anything
meaningful in her political career. The same week Mofaz in
an interview said that Kadima must not miss the next
opportunity to join the government, and stressed that party
leaders -- clearly meaning Livni -- must put the interests
of the state above those of the party. Long known for his
tough, security-focused attitude toward the Palestinians,
Mofaz then tried to outflank Livni to the left by
announcing his own plan for advancing the peace process,
which would entail establishing a Palestinian state with
temporary borders while conducting negotiations on security
over a period of three years.

SPLINTERING OF KADIMA?
--------------


4. (SBU) Politicians and pundits have speculated whether
Mofaz would split from his party and join the coalition,
bringing with him at least several of his Kadima
colleagues. One factor that has discouraged Mofaz's
defection is that there are no plum cabinet posts that
Netanyahu could offer the former Defense and Transportation
Minister. Perhaps a more significant impediment has been a
provision in Israel's Basic Law that makes it difficult to
leave a party unless one-third of the faction splits off.
The government is attempting to make such a split easier by
promoting the so-called "Mofaz bill," which would allow a
faction to split if it took with it seven seats. Many
commentators assess that Mofaz could meet such a modified
threshold, but would have a difficult time luring the nine
other MKs as would be required by current law. The
proposed legislation, which Mofaz has at least publicly
distanced himself from, prompted an outcry from the
opposition, which led to it being tabled temporarily. We
expect it to advance during the Knesset's winter session,
which starts in October.

A BOON FOR NETANYAHU?
--------------


5. (SBU) Embassy contacts confirm press reports of
periodic discussions between Kadima and Likud
representatives regarding the possibility of Kadima joining
the coalition. We have also heard that President Peres is
working behind the scenes to convince Livni to join
Netanyahu's government. The discussions benefit Netanyahu
by keeping a channel open to a potential political savior
should one or more of his fickle coalition partners decide

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to leave the government. One scenario Israelis often
mention is that Yisrael Beitenu could depart if Foreign
Minister Avigdor Liberman is indicted on corruption
charges. In that event, meaningful cabinet positions would
open up that could entice Mofaz to break away from Kadima
or lead other Kadima MKs to put pressure on Livni to join
the government. In any case, the continuous talks, along
with the efforts to pass the Mofaz bill, tend to help the
prime minister sow disunity within his party's main rival
Kadima by keeping unsettled the debate over whether to join
the government.


CUNNINGHAM