MOFAZ CHALLENGING LIVNI WHILE NETANYAHU COURTS BOTH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001437 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV IS SUBJECT: MOFAZ CHALLENGING LIVNI WHILE NETANYAHU COURTS BOTH ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Former Defense Minister and current Kadima Knesset Member (MK) Shaul Mofaz in recent weeks has been more vocal and direct in challenging party leader Tzipi Livni's leadership. Mofaz's recent statements -- in which he questioned her ability to lead, faulted her for not joining the government, and laid out his own plan to advance the peace process -- have increased speculation that Kadima could eventually split, with some members joining Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition. Netanyahu appears to be fostering such divisions in Kadima in an effort to keep his party's main rival down and also to provide himself with options should any of his current coalition partners withdraw from the government. End Summary. MOFAZ STILL EYEING LEADERSHIP OF KADIMA -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Mofaz's leadership aspirations come as no surprise for a man who rose to the top echelon of Israel's military before being named Defense Minister in his first political role. He later served as Deputy PM and Minister of Transportation in Ehud Olmert's government. Mofaz nearly achieved his goal of leading Kadima last September when he lost the leadership primary to Tzipi Livni by less than 500 votes, a loss that surely still stings. Mofaz appears to have never fully mended ties with Livni, and has been an almost invisible number two in the party since last year's primary. When he has commented publicly on Kadima strategies and tactics, he has largely avoided direct attacks against Livni, preferring instead to allow his audience to makes its own inferences. His most consistent target for criticism has been his Livni's inability to form a government in late 2008 and her refusal to join Netanyahu's coalition. RAISING THE STAKES -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Mofaz in recent weeks has become more outspoken and direct in his criticism of Livni. Israeli press reported on June 26 that Mofaz, who was hosting close associates in his home, said he cannot envision Livni as prime minister and that she had never accomplished anything meaningful in her political career. The same week Mofaz in an interview said that Kadima must not miss the next opportunity to join the government, and stressed that party leaders -- clearly meaning Livni -- must put the interests of the state above those of the party. Long known for his tough, security-focused attitude toward the Palestinians, Mofaz then tried to outflank Livni to the left by announcing his own plan for advancing the peace process, which would entail establishing a Palestinian state with temporary borders while conducting negotiations on security over a period of three years. SPLINTERING OF KADIMA? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Politicians and pundits have speculated whether Mofaz would split from his party and join the coalition, bringing with him at least several of his Kadima colleagues. One factor that has discouraged Mofaz's defection is that there are no plum cabinet posts that Netanyahu could offer the former Defense and Transportation Minister. Perhaps a more significant impediment has been a provision in Israel's Basic Law that makes it difficult to leave a party unless one-third of the faction splits off. The government is attempting to make such a split easier by promoting the so-called "Mofaz bill," which would allow a faction to split if it took with it seven seats. Many commentators assess that Mofaz could meet such a modified threshold, but would have a difficult time luring the nine other MKs as would be required by current law. The proposed legislation, which Mofaz has at least publicly distanced himself from, prompted an outcry from the opposition, which led to it being tabled temporarily. We expect it to advance during the Knesset's winter session, which starts in October. A BOON FOR NETANYAHU? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Embassy contacts confirm press reports of periodic discussions between Kadima and Likud representatives regarding the possibility of Kadima joining the coalition. We have also heard that President Peres is working behind the scenes to convince Livni to join Netanyahu's government. The discussions benefit Netanyahu by keeping a channel open to a potential political savior should one or more of his fickle coalition partners decide TEL AVIV 00001437 002 OF 002 to leave the government. One scenario Israelis often mention is that Yisrael Beitenu could depart if Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman is indicted on corruption charges. In that event, meaningful cabinet positions would open up that could entice Mofaz to break away from Kadima or lead other Kadima MKs to put pressure on Livni to join the government. In any case, the continuous talks, along with the efforts to pass the Mofaz bill, tend to help the prime minister sow disunity within his party's main rival Kadima by keeping unsettled the debate over whether to join the government. CUNNINGHAM