GAZA SITREP, JANUARY 16, 1200

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000124 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2019 TAGS: PREL MOPS PINS PINR KWBG EG LE IS KPAL CASC PHUM SUBJECT: GAZA SITREP, JANUARY 16, 1200 Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno. Reason 1.4 (b/d) SUMMARY ¶1. (S) As of 1100 local on January 16, the USDAO had reported that Israeli heavy armor and mechanized forces were moving into southern Gaza from the Sufa and Kerem Shalom crossings, moves which suggest a ground operation is in the making in the vicinity of the Philadelphi corridor. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) had attacked 40 targets overnight, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops continued to operate within Gaza City. Palestinians launched 24 rockets overnight, injuring five Israelis. Palestinian casualties totaled 72 killed and over 130 injured on January 15. Numerous reports suggest Israel has warned Lebanon that it would respond harshly to any additional rockets fired from Lebanese territory. Israel had scheduled another pause in the fighting between 1000 and 1400 local. The Joint Coordination Room (JCR) informed Econoffs that it expects 114 truckloads of supplies to enter Gaza, along with up to 500,000 liters of fuel. The GOI has said the Erez crossing would be open for pre-arranged evacuations. Embassy officials have reached out to IDF contacts for clarification on the shelling of a building that housed AP and Reuters offices. There was little to no domestic political fallout in Israel from the shelling of an UNRWA warehouse on January 15th. Israeli media focused on Egyptian cease-fire efforts and the expected return to Cairo today of Israel's lead negotiator, MOD Political Military Director Amos Gilad. The security cabinet heard from Gilad following his last trip to Cairo less than 24 hours ago, but deferred on making any decisions while Gilad continued his shuttle diplomacy. Prime Minister Olmert, however, appears to be determined to move forward until his stated objectives - namely, putting a halt to rocket fire and arms smuggling - are met. Meantime, rumblings for a postponement of Israeli elections continue. End Summary. MILITARY UPDATE ¶2. (S) USDAO reported on the morning of January 16 that Israeli heavy armor and mechanized forces, including ten D-9 bulldozers, which had been staged near the Sufa and Kerem Shalom crossings were moving west out of these marshaling areas and into southern Gaza. The USDAO observation team saw large clouds of dust and heard heavy gunfire in the vicinity of Sufa crossing, with the Israeli Air Force also very active in the area. The IAF attacked 40 targets overnight, including munitions storage sites and tunnels. Israeli ground forces were still operating within Gaza City, where the IDF focused its operations the previous day in the el-Hawa and Basra neighborhoods, located in the southern part of the city. Palestinians launched 24 rockets into Israel in the preceding 24 hours, injuring five Israelis, one seriously. Palestinian sources reported that 72 Palestinians were killed on the 15th and over 130 were injured. POST-CONFLICT ASSESSMENT ¶3. (S/NF) The IDF's Deputy Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Dan Harel, informed USDAO officials that the IDF has destroyed every desk and piece of government infrastructure in Gaza, and that "the next stage (i.e. post-conflict reconstruction) would be your problem." He added that "victory will not be obtained by what we're doing, but by who fills the vacuum that we have created-the West, or Iran." LEBANON WARNED ¶4. (S/NF) A variety of reporting suggests that Israel has warned Lebanon that it would respond harshly to any further rocket fire emanating from Lebanese territory. Two salvos of rockets fired from Lebanon have struck Israel since Operation Cast Lead began last month, causing no injuries. Israel responded on each occasion with limited artillery fire. USDAO also reports that IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Harel confirmed the GOI has sent "strong messages" to both Syria and Hizballah that Israel will severely respond to any attack. HUMANITARIAN UPDATE ¶5. (SBU) A humanitarian pause is scheduled from 1000-1400 local on the 16th. The JCR reported that it expected 74 trucks, including three diesel shipments, to transit through Kerem Shalom, and an additional 60 to cross through Karni. Nahal Oz would be open and could process up to 500,000 liters of fuel. Erez would be open for previously coordinated evacuations of NGO and other international organization officials, but we do not have reporting on any evacuation TEL AVIV 00000124 002 OF 002 plans for today. The ICRC told the Ambassador January 16 that they are not prepared to coordinate an evacuation at foreigners at this time. The Embassy and ConGen Jerusalem are exploring alternative arrangements, including the possibility of having buses of evacuees accompany UNRWA convoys out of the Gaza Strip. ¶6. (U) Israeli media portrayed the Israeli shelling of an UNRWA building a day earlier as a tragic mistake, but the strike appeared to not alter Israeli public opinion of the war's conduct. The Embassy's press office has been in contact with the Jerusalem bureau chiefs of both the AP and Reuters regarding reported damage and violence in and around their offices in Gaza. The Reuters chief said that the company's offices were severely damaged and not in use. Both offices are seeking Embassy assistance in receiving explanations from the GOI, along with assurances that they won't be targeted again. The press office has contacted the IDF spokesman's office regarding the incidents and is awaiting a detailed response. CEASE-FIRE NEGOTIATIONS ¶7. (U) Haaretz reported that Ministry of Defense Political Bureau chief Amos Gilad returned from cease-fire talks in Cairo last night and presented a "very reassuring" report to Israeli leaders on progress in the negotiations. The security cabinet, however, decided to delay making any decisions on the Egyptian plan until Gilad returns from a follow-up visit to Cairo on the 16th. Some Israeli columnists assessed that these developments meant a cease-fire was near, and they quoted senior sources in Cairo as saying that Israel had given a green light in principle to the Egyptian initiative. Olmert, however, said during the security cabinet meeting that Israel will continue without compromise and that he didn't "want any time pressures or international pressure to dictate (the war's conduct)." He also stressed that cease-fire negotiations were being conducted with Egypt, not with Hamas. ISRAELI ELECTIONS ¶8. (U) Israel still appears poised to proceed with elections as scheduled on February 10, as none of the major parties support a delay at this time. There have been persistent reports, however, that suggest there is still support among some smaller parties and some communities close to the Gaza border to pause until the fighting is halted. Nine municipal council chairs on January 15th demanded a postponement of two months so that these communities would have time to focus on rebuilding instead of electioneering. Many Israelis are sympathetic to the plight of these "front-line" communities, and an Israeli poll published on the 16th noted a plurality of Israelis supported a postponement of elections. ¶9. (U) Olmert, who is not running in the elections, has seen his approval ratings soar during the course of the war, from a 33 percent approval rating on December 31, 2008 to 46 percent approval as of January 15. The Labor Party of MOD Ehud Barak initially gained in the polls, but the party's prospects have not continued to rise. The Kadima Party of FM Tzipi Livni and the Likud Party of Binyamin Netanyahu have lost some support recent polls. Likud contacts told the Ambassador January 15 that the Yisrael Beiteinu Party of Avigdor Lieberman stands to benefit most in the coming elections, and current polling confirms that public support for this right wing party has increased. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv ********************************************* ******************** CUNNINGHAM